©2016 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
“Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Santa Anita Park,
Saturday, where Hall of Fame Trainer, Bob Baffert, will send Mor
Spirit to the
starting gate as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 79th running
of the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).
Baffert has had
good fortune in the Lewis, previously winning it a record five times with Dortmund (2015), Flashback (2013), Pioneerof the Nile (2009), Domestic Dispute (2003) and General Challenge (1999).
Whether Mor
Spirit can bring Baffert more good fortune remains to be seen. He comes into
this race with a 2-2-0 record in four starts, including a second-place finish
to Airoforce in the
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and a win in the Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes
(G1). Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:
MOR SPIRIT pulled early
and stalked between horses on the first turn then three deep or off the rail,
went three wide on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, drifted in
and rallied to a short lead a sixteenth out under a couple left handed cracks
of the whip and proved best.
His
finish time of 1:43.54 was okay and the times of his other races have been
slower that what I like to see a young colt run on the Derby trail. Baffert
also seemed cautiously optimist about Mor Spirit in a recent edition of Santa
Anita Barn Notes:
“I think with every
start, we’re learning more about Mor Spirit and figuring out what he wants to
do. He has a lot of tactical speed but you can’t let him use it too early. We’re
teaching him to sit and wait. He’ll be best going a mile and an eighth and
further.”
Mor
Spirit has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, which
makes him competitive on the trail. But, he’s yet to show the same “spirit” on
the racetrack as that of his sire, Eskendereya, who has an A profile rating.
Eskendereya
was my 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite until an injury took him off
the trail. During his career, Eskendereya compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts
which culminated in a 9¾ length romp in the 2010 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).
Other
key stakes wins include a runaway win by 8½ lengths in the Fasig-Tipton
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and an impressive 7¼ length victory Pilgrim
Stakes.
The return of Hall
of Fame Jockey Gary Stevens to the mount is a positive. However, there are several
horses in this race that have good speed and Mor Spirit will need to pick up
the pace in order to secure the win.
A
long shot I like in this race is Path of David (8-1). I wrote about him in my 2016
Kentucky Derby Outlook
and, to date, he’s compiled a 2-1-1
record in six starts, including a win in the Eddie Logan Stakes. Here’s the video
and chart call
of the race:
PATH OF DAVID angled in and
chased inside then just off the rail leaving the backstretch, went three deep
on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, bid outside the leader,
gained the advantage past the eighth pole and proved best under a couple taps
with the whip turned down, some hand urging and steady handling.
Path of David raced about six lengths off the
leaders until entering the far turn when he made a wide sweeping move to rally
and take the lead and secure the win. I love the way Santa Anita track
announcer Frank
Mirahmadi called his run in the stretch as “gobbling up the dirt…very
confidently handled and wrapped up to win by a deceptive length and a half.”
Path
of David is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he
has an A+ Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating.
Istan, the sire
of Path of David, raced mostly in sprints as a two and
three year colt old in France, winning the Prix des Closeaux-EBF, Prix de la
Tour Saint-Jacques and Prix Mordant.
In
September of his three year old season, Istan was shipped to America where he finished
fourth in the City Zip Stakes. He continued to race as a four and five year
old, winning the Budweiser Challenger Stakes, Artax Handicap, Governor’s
Handicap, Turfway Park Fall Championship Stakes (G3) and the Ack Ack Handicap
(G3).
With
two back-to-back turf wins, Path of David seems to be on the winning trail
since transferring to the barn of Mulhall and losing the blinkers. He has room
to improve as a three year old and if he makes another move forward, he has the
potential to upset at a nice price.
Dressed in Hermes (6-1) comes into this race for trainer Janet
Armstrong with a 2-0-1 record in five starts, including stakes wins in the Zuma
Beach Stakes and Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
DRESSED IN HERMES stalked the
pace outside, went three deep on the second turn and into the stretch, rallied
under some left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and proved best.
Dressed
in Hermes was in sixth place at the half and began to move up to take command
in the stretch and win by and easy 1¼ lengths.
Dressed
in Hermes is a sire-line descendant of the Royal Charger Ancestral Herd and he has a C Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile®.
Hat
Trick, a son
of Sunday Silence and the sire of Dressed in
Hermes, was a champion sprinter, miler that raced in Japan. He did not race
until May of his three year old season. However, the wait to get him to the
track was worth it as he won four of his five starts that
year.
As
a four year old, Hat Trick stepped up to stakes competition, winning four of
eight starts including the Sports Nippon Sho Kyoto Kimpai Handicap, Tokyo
Shimbun Hai, Mile Championship (G1) and the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Mile (G1).
Jockey
Rafael Bejarano picks up the mount on Dressed in Hermes and I look for the pair
to run a good race.
I
Will Score (5-2)
is getting some buzz as an up and coming, talented colt who’s undefeated in two
starts for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. He’s yet to run in a route race and he’s
a blistering, fast colt that’s run on the lead in his last two starts. Here’s
the video and chart call of his last race:
I WILL SCORE had good early speed
and dueled inside, fought back when headed in the stretch, drifted out a bit
under left handed urging while regaining the advantage in deep stretch, brushed
with the runner-up late and gamely prevailed.
I
Will Score is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and
he has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. However, despite his
profile, his Behavior Index makes him competitive in this race.
Roman Ruler, the sire of I Will Score, was a multiple graded
stakes winning colt on the trail to the 2005 Kentucky Derby (G1). As a two year
old, he compiled a 3-1-0 record in five starts, winning the Best Pal Stakes
(G2) and Norfolk Stakes (G2). He finished second in the Del Mar Futurity and
fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
As a three year
old, Roman Ruler developed a quarter crack and his
trainer Bob Baffert speculated that the foot problem probably accounted for
Roman Ruler’s last place finish in his season debut in San Felipe
Stakes (G2).
Roman returned
to racing after a four month break and won both the Dwyer Stakes (G2) and
Haskell Invitational Handicap (G1). He finished third in the Travers Stakes
(G1) and closed his racing season with a second-place finish in the Goodwood
Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2).
Jockey
Mike Smith retains the mount on I Will Score and he’s been training well at
Santa Anita, firing two back-to-back bullet work outs.
It
remains to be seen if Smith can help I Will Score carry his speed over a route
of ground without being used up early in the race. If Smith can do that, then I
Will Score has the potential to “score” in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).
Honorable
Mention goes to Let’s Meet in Rio (6-1) who’s also trained by
Baffert and comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in four starts, including a
second-place finish his stablemate, Collected, in the Sham
Stakes (G3). Here’s a look at the video of that race.
The
time of 1:38.00 was slower that what I like to see colts run on the Derby trail
and, with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Let’s Meet in Rio has
yet to fully live up to his breeding.
Let’s
Meet in Rio was my long shot pick
in the Sham and he has the potential to improve in his second start of the
season. Jockey Kent Desormeaux retains the mount and if he makes another move
forward, Let’s Meet in Rio could, perhaps, be a factor in this race.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Robert B.
Lewis Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will
receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the
fourth-place finisher will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top
twenty Derby qualifiers:
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Nyquist, 30,
Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Mohaymen, 20,
Kiaran McLaughlin, $514,830
3. Sunny Ridge,
18, Jason Servis, $505,600
4. Exaggerator,
16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
5. Flexibility,
15, Chad Brown, $232,500
6. Brody’s Cause,
14, Dale Romans, $500,000
7.
Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $369,300
8. Mor Spirit,
14, Bob Baffert, $246,800
9. Swipe, 12,
Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
10. Mo Tom, 21,
Tom Amoss $188,326
11. Airoforce,
10, Mark Casse, $444,080
12. Cocked and
Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840
13. Discreetness,
10, William “Jinks” Fires, $245,042
14. Riker, 10,
Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
15. Collected,
10, Bob Baffert, $80,000
16. Vorticity, 8,
James Lawrence II, $150,000
17. Rated R
Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200
18. Toews On Ice,
4, Bob Baffert, $228,900
19. Tom’s Ready,
4, Dallas Stewart, $66,670
20. *Gordy
Florida, 4, Kenny Smith, $30,000
*Not nominated
to the Triple Crown
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