Justify Makes Bid To Win Final Triple Crown Jewel - Belmont Stakes

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

All eyes of the horseracing world will be on JUSTIFY, Saturday, when he makes his bid to win the final jewel of the Triple Crown in the 150^th running of the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1). Justify has been tabbed as the 4-5 morning line favorite and post time for the race is 6:46 p.m., ET.

Trained by Hall of Fame Trainer, Bob Baffert, Justify is undefeated in five starts and he’ll be tough to beat.

Vino Rosso (8-1) and Free Drop Billy (30-1) are horses we profiled at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, so I’ll be rooting for them. Other horses I like are Hofburg (9-2) and Tenfold (20-1). Honorable Mention goes to Restoring Hope (30-1).

Let’s take a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® of the horses in Belmont Stakes 150:

As you can see in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above Hofburg and Tenfold are ranked at the top with an A+ profile grade ranking while Restoring Hope, Vino Rosso and Free Drop Billy have an A profile grade ranking. Justify has a C profile grade ranking and is ranked seventh.

In addition to the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move some horses up or down in ranking.

For example, Justify has a C profile ranking and his Behavior Index moves him up into the top four while Free Drop Billy and Restoring Hope are moved down in ranking. Knowing how to apply the Behavior Index variable is crucial in racing and handicapping analysis.

Let’s take a look at the horses I like in Belmont Stakes (G1) 150:

JUSTIFY, a chestnut colt by Scat Daddy out of Stage Magic by Ghostzapper, comes into this race undefeated in four starts with a combined win margin of 22 lengths for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert. Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Preakness Stakes (G1):

JUSTIFY got engaged in a duel outside of GOOD MAGIC soon after the start, jumped tracks under the wire the first time, went head to head while about four wide through the backstretch run, came under some coaxing as the pace picked up leaving the three eighths pole, emerged from the fog past mid-stretch with a slim lead and under solid left handed encouragement, nearly moved clear with about seventy yards to go then prevailed under steady handling.

Justify took the lead and dueled with Good Magic throughout the race to prevail by a half-length margin over a closing runner up, Bravazo, who ran a neck in front of third-place finisher Tenfold.

Scat Daddy, the sire of Justify, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.

As a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).

In his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish in the Derby.

In addition to Justify, Scat Daddy’s best runners on the Triple Crown Trail include Mendelssohn, Flameaway, Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El Kabeir, Frac Daddy, Azar and Dice Flavor who was my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real Derby (G3).

Justify has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index moves him up in raking and makes him competitive in this herd. He’s the first classic champion in North America for his sire, Scat Daddy, and he looms as the horse to beat in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

VINO ROSSO, a chestnut colt by Curlin out of Mythical Bride by Street Cry, comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in six starts including a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

VINO ROSSO lacked speed while four wide and outside rivals leaving the seven furlong pole, remained wide throughout and finished with mild improvement.

Vino Rosso’s ninth-place finish in this race was disappointing and his lack of early speed was probably his downfall as he lost too much ground that he could not make it up in the stretch.

Curlin, the sire of Vino Rosso, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.

Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.

In his first five crops as a stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator. In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Ride On Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice (third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).

Vino Rosso is a colt we profiled as a yearling (Hip 528) at the 2016 Keeneland September sale. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s a much better colt than his finish in the Derby would indicate. However, he’ll need to improve his game to earn his way to the Belmont winners circle.

FREE DROP BILLY, a chestnut colt by Union Rags out of Trensa by Giant’s Causeway, comes into this race with a 2-3-2 record in nine starts including sixteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

FREE DROP BILLY came away a bit slow, found room along the rail and edged up into the first turn, continued a forward presence to inside the three-eighths pole, but lacked a further response and dropped out.

Free Drop Billy is much better than his run in the Derby indicates and he’ll need to be more forwardly placed in the Belmont.

Union Rags, the sire of Free Drop Billy, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1), compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with $1,798,800 in earnings.

As a two-year-old, Union Rags won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and Champagne (G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) stakes.

At the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.

Free Drop Billy was a yearling (Hip 104) we profiled at the 2016 Keeneland September sale. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has the breeding to be competitive in this race. But, like Vino Rosso, Free Drop Billy will need to improve his game to advance to the Belmont winners circle.

HOFBURG, a chestnut colt by Tapit out of Soothing Touch by Touch Gold, comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Bill Mott including a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

HOFBURG, bumped at the break, settled toward the inside, moved up into the far turn, steadied off heels soon after, steadied again leaving the five-sixteenths, altered out to advance between rivals into upper stretch and churned on to the wire.

In just his fourth career start, Hofburg showed his good breeding and stepped up in classic competition to finish a respectable seventh to Justify.

Tapit, the sire of Hofburg, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.

As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).

With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Hofburg is the best-bred colt in this herd and win by him would be no surprise.

TENFOLD, a dark bay colt by Curlin out of Temptress by Tapit, comes into this race for Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen with a 2-0-0 record in four starts including a third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TENFOLD, about four wide into the first turn, exchanged a bump with DIAMOND KING near the seven eighths marker, commenced a four wide run while under urging leaving the far turn, closed on his left lead while between rivals in deep stretch but wasn’t quite good enough.

In his fourth career start, Tenfold showed his classic breeding to finish third just a half-length shy of victory to the talented Justify.

Curlin, the sire of Tenfold, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.

Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.

Tenfold is a lightly race, improving colt, and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be competitive in this race and I look for him to make another step forward.