©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
Once
again, it’s time to take a look at the young Thoroughbreds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and prepare the 2018 Kentucky Derby Outlook which is an
annual tradition at Classic Champion Thoroughbreds blog.
I
always enjoy researching this blog and, by far, one of my best picks was in
December of 2010 when I wrote in my 2011
Kentucky Derby Outlook
that Animal Kingdom would most likely be my Derby
favorite. At that time, Animal Kingdom had a 1-1-0 record in two starts – both
were maiden special weight races on all-weather tracks.
I
had no idea if the connections planned to give Animal Kingdom a classic
campaign. But research of his pedigree showed me that, given a chance, he had
the potential to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred.
The
Derby outlook for 2018 is shaping up to be very exciting.
In
2016, Classic
Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC profiled 101 yearlings at the
Keeneland September Sale and four horses
from our
sales list are currently
ranked on the 2018 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard: Good
Magic (Hip 845),
Solomini (Hip 662),
Free
Drop Billy (Hip 104) and Hollywood Star (Hip 395).
In
addition, there are several horses from our 2016 sales list that could make an
impact as a three-year-old on the 2018 Derby trail. Let’s look at the current top 20
horses listed on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard.
2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. +Good
Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
3. +Solomini, 14, Bob Baffert, $436,000
4. Enticed, 12, Kiaran McLaughlin, $164,080
5. Firenze Fire, 10, Jason Servis, $427,500
6. +Free
Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
7. Greyvitos, 10,
Adam Kitchingman, $300,000
8. Catholic Boy,
10, Jonathan Thomas, $290,000
9. The Tabulator,
10, Larry Rivelli, $186,750
10. McKinzie, 10,
Bob Baffert, $180,000
11. Avery Island, 4, Kiaran McLaughlin, $170,000
12. Bravazo, 4, D.
Wayne Lukas, $109,913
13. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $88,500
14. Combatant, 4, Steve Asmussen, $80,000
15. Instilled Regard, Jerry Hollendorfer, $60,000
16. Tiz Mischief, 4, Dale Romans, $36,800
17. Givemeaminit, 2, Dallas Stewart, $152,000
18. Lone Sailor, 2, Tom Amoss, $71,347
19. Kingsville, 2, Danny Pish $44,000
20. Take the One O One, 2, Brian Koriner, $36,345
Of
the current top 20 qualifiers listed below, here’s how they are ranked according
to their Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® score and grade ranking (Chart One) and also by their Behavior Index (Chart Two). Since I
began profiling the horses on the Derby trail, 2018 is shaping up to the best
yet with 16 (80%) having a grade ranking of C or better while seven (35%) have
a grade ranking of A and Solomini has an A+ ranking.
Our
research, which is documented in my numerous blogs and on my website,
shows that a majority of horses run close to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score which is a measurement of the breeding influences
found in the five-generation pedigree.
In
addition to the breeding influences found in the pedigree, horse behavior is
also vitally important for an Equine athlete to have success on the racetrack
and one of the biggest changes that have been made to the software is the
addition of the Behavior Index which
I wrote about in my wrap up for the Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes (G2).
The
Behavior Index is proving to be a
very valuable analytical tool, and, with
its addition to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral
analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion
Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.
I’ll
be watching closely to see if horses with high profile scores like Hollywood
Star (ranked 7th) live up to their breeding. He’s yet to fully live
up to his breeding and when horses fail to run close to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching
their full potential needs to be investigated. And there can be many contributing
factors for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.
In
addition to the four horses profiled on our 2016 Keeneland sales list, other horses I like from the
current Kentucky Derby Leaderboard to round out the top ten are: Greyvitos, Avery Island, Enticed, Bolt
d’Oro, McKinzie and Catholic
Boy.
Churchill
Downs has also opened international competition to a European and Japan road to Derby glory. Of those
current qualifiers. Saxon Warrior tops the European Leaderboard
and I like him the best.
Let’s
take a look at the four horses from the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds 2016
Keeneland sales list.
GOOD
MAGIC (Hip 845),
a chestnut colt by Curlin out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, is trained by
Chad Brown and he’s
compiled a 1-2-0 record in three starts including a second place finish in the Champagne
Stakes (G1) and a win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Here’s
the video and chart call
of the Juvenile:
GOOD MAGIC attended the pace off of the inside, tipped out a bit further
and split rivals to launch his bid, struck the front entering the stretch and
quickly drew away.
Good Magic won his first Grade One race with
authority and he has room to improve as a three-year-old.
Curlin, the sire of Good Magic, was an outstanding racehorse
that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career
earnings.
Curlin did not
start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine
starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and
Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby
(G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important
stakes wins include the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
As
a stallion, Curlin has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the 2013
Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator.
Good Magic was a $1 million session four
sale topper purchased by agent
Mike Ryan for E5 Racing. Here’s the video of Good Magic in the auction ring:
“He’s as good a Curlin as you’ll see,” said Ryan in
a Bloodhorse news story. “Curlin is Curlin. In my mind he’s as good as
Tapit.”
Good Magic was one of my top picks at
the 2016 Keeneland Sale and with an A
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be
competitive.
I look for him to be a factor as a three-year-old
on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
SOLOMINI (Hip 662),
a chestnut colt by Curlin out of Surf Song by Storm Cat, is trained by Hall of
Fame Trainer Bob Baffert and he’s compiled a 1-2-1 record in four starts
including second-place finishes in both the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
(G1).
In his last race, Solomini crossed the
finish line first in the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (G1) but was placed
third through a controversial disqualification. Here’s the video
and chart call
of that race:
SOLOMINI dueled between foes then stalked a bit off the rail, went
outside a rival on the second turn and three wide into the stretch, bid three
deep in the drive, came in under right-handed urging to bump a rival a
sixteenth out, took a short lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed.
I thought the disqualification to third
was unwarranted but despite that the time of 1:36.04 for the mile and finish
time of 1:42.57 is what I like to see a young colt run on the Derby trail.
Solomini was purchased at the 2016
Keeneland September Sale for $270,000 by Zayat Stables, LLC, and like Good
Magic, his sire is Curlin. With an A+
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, Solomini tops the
current leaderboard and I look for him to be a factor on the 2018 Kentucky
Derby Trail.
FREE
DROP BILLY (Hip 104),
a chestnut colt by Union Rags out of Trensa by Giant’s Causeway, is a
half-brother to multiple group stakes winner Hawkbill
and he’s trained by Dale Romans.
In five
starts, he’s compiled a 2-2-0 record including a second-place finish in both the
Sanford Stakes (G2) and Hopeful Stakes (G1), and a runaway four-length win in
the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1). Here’s the video of His Grade One Futurity win and chart call
of his disappointing ninth-place finish in the Juvenile:
FREE DROP BILLY settled after saving ground, moved up to make a mild
bid, but tired after six furlongs and dropped out.
Union
Rags, the sire
of Free Drop Billy, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky
Derby (G1), compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with
$1,798,800 in earnings.
As
a two-year-old, he won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and Champagne
(G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
stakes.
At
the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes
and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish
in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck
over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.
Free
Drop Billy was purchased for $200,000 by agents
Kempton/Berkelhammer for the Albaugh Family Stable. Here’s the video
of him in the Auction Ring.
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking Free
Drop Billy has good breeding and, despite his finish in the Juvenile, I look
for him rebound from that race and to be a factor as a three-year-old on the
Kentucky Derby Trail.
HOLLYWOOD
STAR (Hip 395),
a dark bay or brown colt by Malibu Moon out of Hollywood Story by Wild Rush, is
also trained by Dale Romans and he has a 1-2-0 record in four starts including
second-place finishes in both the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and Iroquois
Stakes (G3) and a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Here’s
the video of
the Iroquois Stakes (G3) and chart call
of the Juvenile:
HOLLYWOOD STAR angled in at once to save ground, came under a ride with
three furlongs to run, angled out entering the stretch and improved position.
Malibu
Moon, the sire
of Hollywood Star, made only two starts as a two year old, compiling a 1-1-0
record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At
stud, Malibu Moon sired the
2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been
competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley, Danzig
Moon, Mr.
Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu
Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care,
Declan’s Moon, Ask
the Moon,
Prospective, Kauai
Katie, Moon Catcher,
Moonshine Memories, Ransom the Moon,
and Malibu Mint.
Hollywood Star was a $550,000 purchase by
Kempton/Berkelhammer for the Albaugh Family Stable. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® ranking he’s yet to fully live up to his
breeding but I look for him to be competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Time will tell if Hollywood Star has the
potential to be a Classic Champion.
One
colt currently unranked in the top 20 Leaderboard is Principe Guilherme and with a very high A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, he has the potential to be a
factor on the Derby Trail. Here’s a look at him:
PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Hip
47), a bay
colt by Tapit out of Aubby K by Street Sense, was purchased for $600,000 as a
weanling by Mill Valley Racing at the 2015 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky November Sale.
Undefeated
in two starts for trainer Steve Asmussen, Principe Guilherme has one his last
two races by a combined 18 lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:
PRINCIPE GUILHERME
was hustled to the front, set the pace in the two path while well rated,
responded well when shaken up a bit in upper stretch and drew off under a mild
hand ride to win handily.
Principe
Guilherme won with ease and should soon earn some Derby qualifying points.
Tapit, the sire of Principe Guilherme,
was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts
with $557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s
the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
Principe
Guilherme has won his last two races with authority and I look for him to
continue to improve as a three-year-old on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
*******
In addition to the current top twenty, there are
several other unranked horses from our 2016 Keeneland sales list
that could perhaps have an impact on the Derby Trail. Below is a list of horses
I’m following that have an A or A+ Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
NEED TO QUALIFY FOR TOP 20
1. ARCHAGGELOS (Hip 2138),
a bay colt by Temple City out of Mien by Nureyev, is a half-brother to dual
classic winner Big Brown
and was a $200,000 RNA for consignor Monticule, LLC.
Archaggelos is trained by Michael
Dickinson and he has an A
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. In four starts, Archaggelos has
compiled a 2-1-0 record including an authoritative 2¾ length win in the Grey
Stakes (G3) and a fourth-place finish in the Display Stakes. Here’s a look at
the video and chart call of his win in the Grey Stakes (G3).
ARCHAGGELOS raced in mid-pack,
moved off the rail late on the far turn, needed a path and split foes upper
stretch, took command with authority a furlong out and held under a drive.
Archaggelos “strode clear with authority to take the GIII Grey Stakes at Woodbine
Sunday by two lengths,” according to a Thoroughbred Daily News article.
He paid $21 for the win which was especially impressive as Dickinson wheeled
him back off one week’s rest from breaking his maiden at Laurel Park on
September 24.
Temple
City, the sire
of Archaggelos, was a graded stakes winner that compiled a 4-2-4 record in 15
starts.
Unraced
as a two-year-old, Temple City won his only start as a three-year-old and
followed that with a third-place finish in the Del Mar Handicap at the age of
four.
Temple
City earned graded stakes honors as a five-year-old with a win in the Cougar II
Handicap (G3) and second-place finishes in both the American Handicap (G2) and
the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (G1).
I look for Archaggelos to improve as a
three-year-old and he has the breeding to be a factor on the Kentucky Derby
Trail.
2. MISSISSIPPI
(Hip 888):
a dark bay or brown colt by Pioneerof the Nile out of Katz Me If You Can by
Storm Cat
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A+
Race Record: 1-0-0 (2)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A
Race Record: 2-0-0 (2)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A
Race Record: 1-0-1 (2)
Trainer: John Servis
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A+
Race Record: 1-0-1 (2)
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
In Training: Fair Grounds. Here’s
the video of his maiden win. In his last
race he finished third to Principe Guilherme.
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A+
Race Record: 1-0-0 (2)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A
Race Record: 0-1-0 (1)
Trainer: Michael Stidham
Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile®: A
Race
Record: 0-0-1 (1)
Trainer:
Dale Romans
In
Training: Last work out was at Churchill Downs on November 5. Here’s the video
of his only start. In this race he finished third to Principe Guilherme.
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A
Race Record: 0-0-2 (2)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
10. STRONGER (Hip 4154): a bay
colt by Bodemeister out of Out For Revenge by Bernadini
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A+
Race Record: 1-0-1 (4)
Trainer: Eric Guillot
In Training: Palm Meadows
Training Center. Here’s the video
of third-place finish in the Smooth Air Stakes.
Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®: A+
Race Record: 0-1-0 (1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
In Training: Not in training.
Here’s the video
of his only start. Campaign came from dead last to finish second to Lone Sailor
who is ranked 18th in the Derby Leaderboard.
Do you have a 2019 KD outlook?
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