©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs,
Arkansas, where the final prep race worth 100 points to the victor will be ran
at Oaklawn Park. A field of 12 has been drawn for the 81st running
of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) with Classic Empire tagged as the 8-5 morning-line
favorite. Post
time is 7:18 ET.
Classic
Empire has had training issues and he’s not raced since February. Ranked 21st
in Kentucky Derby point standings, he’s on the bubble and comes into this race
with a 4-0-1 record in six starts for trainer Mark Casse including wins in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3), the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and a third-place finish
in the Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
CLASSIC EMPIRE
was washy behind the gate and briefly balked at loading, raced between horses
into the first turn and wound up five wide outside IRISH WAR CRY and TALK
LOGISTICS into the backstretch, had little response when put to pressure a
quarter-mile out and gave way.
Classic
Empire has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® and his
Behavior Index helped to make him competitive as a two year old. But, so far as
a three year old, he’s yet to show the same competitiveness.
Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Classic Empire,
was a pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that
compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two year old including a win in the CashCall
Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity
(G1).
As
a three year old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1)
in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Regular
jockey Julien Leparoux retains the mount on Classic Empire and how far his
Behavior Index will take him remains to be seen.
A
long shot I like is Conquest Mo Money
(15-1) who comes into this race with a 3-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Miguel
Hernandez including a second-place finish in the Sunland Derby (G3). Here’s the
video
and chart
call of that race:
CONQUEST MO MONEY
was allowed to settle early, went three wide into the second turn, made a bid
at the quarter pole, took a short lead, couldn’t hold off the winner and
finished a game second.
Conquest
Mo Money was clearly second best and only lost by three and three quarters of a
length. The mile split of 1:35.71 and final time of 1:48.10 is what I like to
see in the final prep race for the Derby.
Uncle
Mo, the sire
of Conquest Mo Money, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with
wins in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1)
and he was picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.
As
a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in
the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo
was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed
as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.
Conquest
Mo Money has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking. But, so far
his Behavior Index has helped make him competitive and I’ll be watching to see
if he can step up to earn graded stakes honors.
Undefeated
in three starts, Malagacy (2-1) comes into this race off
of a two length win in the Rebel Stakes (G2) for trainer Todd Pletcher. Here’s
the video and chart call of that race:
MALAGACY closest
to the leader off the inside, asked along late in the final turn, took over
soon after, kicked clear the final furlong under firm right handed urging and
while drifting in a bit late.
Malagacy
took the lead at the top of the stretch and continued to move forward, winning by
two lengths at the wire.
Shackleford, the sire of
Malagacy, was a multiple graded-stakes winner and Classic Champion Thoroughbred
that compiled a 6-5-1 record in 20 starts with $3,090,101 in career earnings.
Shackleford
made two starts as a two year old and in his second start he won a seven
furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs.
As
a three year old, Shackleford won his debut race and went on to finish fifth in
the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). He recovered from that race and
finished second in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a fourth-place finish in
the Kentucky Derby (G1).
His
best race as a three year old was in the Preakness Stakes (G1) where he
defeated Animal Kingdom
by half of a length. Shackleford’s next best was a second-place finish in the Haskell
Invitational Stakes (G1), Indiana Derby (G2) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
As
a four year old, Shackleford won the Churchill Downs Stakes (G2), Metropolitan
Handicap (G1) and Clark Handicap (G1). He finished second in the Kelso Handicap
(G2) and third in the Carter Handicap (G1).
With
a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking Malagacy’s Behavior Index
has made him competitive but it remains to be seen how far his Behavior Index
will take him. I’ll be watching to see how well he handles the stretch out to
nine furlongs.
Untrapped (6-1), ranked 20th
in point standings, is also on the bubble and he comes into this race with a
1-3-1 record in five starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a second-place
finish in both the LeComte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) and a
third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
UNTRAPPED in some
early traffic off the inside, settled the middle half, three out to four wide
in the lane, slight drift, missed the place.
With
a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® grade rating Untrapped is a solid
competitor and he’s never finished out of the money in five starts.
Trappe
Shot, the sire
of Untrapped, raced mostly in sprints from the age of two to four, compiling a
6-2-0 record in 12 starts with $703,884 in career earnings. His best stakes
victories were in the six furlong Waldoboro Stakes, True North Handicap (G2)
and he did stretch out to win the 8½ furlong Long Branch Stakes. In other route
races, Trappe Shote finished second in the nine-furlong Izod Haskell
Invitational (G1) and ninth in the Travers Stakes (G1).
To
date, Trappe Shot’s best runner on the Kentucky Derby Trail has been My
Man Sam who
finished second in the nine furlong 2016 Toyota Blue Grass (G1) stakes.
Jockey
Mike Smith picks up the mount on Untrapped who will be wearing blinkers for the
Arkansas Derby (G1). Whether Untrapped is talented enough to earn graded stakes
honors remains to be seen.
Another
long shot I like is Sonneteer (15-1) who is
still a maiden and comes into this race for trainer Keith Desormeaux with a
0-4-2 record in nine starts including a second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes
(G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
SONNETEER
shuffled back at the start, raced well back early as a result, began a steady
advance after five furlongs off the inside, dropped to the rail late in the
final turn and rallied up the inside up the inside to gain the nod for place, no
real threat to the winner.
Sonneteer
looked good in his step up to graded stakes company and beat the locals to
finish a respectable second.
Midnight Lute, the sire of Sonneteer, was an Eclipse champion
male sprinter and two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). During his
career, Midnight Lute compiled a 6-3-1 record with $2,690,600 in earnings.
Because
of breathing problems, Midnight Lute ran mostly in sprint races and it is
unknown if he could have had any classic potential.
As
a three year old, Midnight Lute won the Perryville Stakes (G3) and finished
third in the Malibu Stakes (G1).
At
the age of four, Midnight Lute won the TVG Breeders’ Cup (G1) and Forego Stakes
(G1). He finished second in the Hill ‘n’ Dale Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) and San
Fernando Breeders’ Cup Stakes.
Midnight
Lute raced twice as a five year old and his most notable win was in the
Sentient Flight Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).
Jockey
Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount on Sonneteer who appears to be improving at
the right time of year and could, perhaps, make another big move forward.
Let’s
take a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® for the
horses entered in this race:
Classic
Champion
Thoroughbred
Profile®
Entries Rank
1. Silver Dust B
2. Untrapped B
3. Grandpa’s
Dream B
4. Lookin at
Lee C
5. Malagacy C
6. Classic Empire C
7. Petrov D
8. Sonneteer D
9. Conquest Mo
Money E
10. Rowdy the
Warrior F
11. One Dreamy
Dude F
12. Rockin Rudy F
As
you can see in the model above, horses like Malagacy, Classic Empire and
Conquest Mo Money have a low profile ranking. However, the Behavior Index can, perhaps,
move some horses up or down and here’s a look at the potential ranking of the Arkansas
Derby (G1) entries when you factor in the Behavior Index variable.
Silver
Dust is a young colt I’ve liked in previous races. He’s the best bred horse in
this race and an honorable mention, but, so far he’s yet to live up to his
breeding.
He’s
been working well since the Rebel. A recent bullet work out and addition of
blinkers could have him ready to run a good race.
Classic
Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®
& Behavior Index
Rank
1. Conquest Mo
Money
2. Classic Empire
3. Malagacy
4. Untrapped
5. Sonneteer
6. Silver Dust
7. Lookin at Lee
8. Petrov
9. Rockin Rudy
10. Grandpa’s Dream
11. Rowdy the
Warrior
12. One Dreamy
Dude
As
you can see in the Behavior Index Model, Conquest Mo Money, Classic Empire, Malagacy,
Sonneteer and Rockin Rudy can potentially move up in the ranking while Silver
Dust and Grandpa’s Dream could perhaps drop in ranking.
A
lot will depend on if Classic Empire returns to his previous form as a two year
old that made him so successful. If he doesn’t run well then Sonneteer could perhaps
crack the top four and be a factor in the exotics and, perhaps, even an exacta
play.
Time
will tell if it was justifiable applying the Behavior Index to those horses.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Arkansas
Derby (G1) will receive 100 points, the second-place finisher will receive 40
points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive 10 points.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Girvin, 150,
Joe Sharp, $849,800
2. Gormley, 125,
John Sherriffs, $884,000
3. Irap, 113,
Doug O’Neill, $744,000
4. Irish War Cry,
110, Graham Motion, $672,660
5. Thunder Snow,
100, Saeed bin Suroor, $1,621,063
6. Always
Dreaming, 100, Todd Pletcher, $$589,000
7. Gunnevera, 84,
Antonio Sano, $1,137,800
8. Practical
Joke,74, Chad Brown, $966,000
9. J Boys Echo,
63, Dale Romans, $305,000
10. State of
Honor, 62, Mark Casse, $309,564
11. Tapwrit, 54,
Todd Pletcher, $295,570
12. Malagacy, 50,
Todd Pletcher, $540,000
13. Hence, 50,
Steve Asmussen, $$481,129
14. **Fast and
Accurate, 50, $320,712
15. McCraken, 40,
Ian Wilkes, $385,048
16. Battle of
Midway, 40, $224,000
17. Patch, 40,
Todd Pletcher, $200,000
18. Battalion
Runner, 40, Todd Pletcher $140,000
19. Cloud
Computing, 40, Chad Brown, $115,000
20. Untrapped,
34, Steve Asmussen, $210,000
**Owner
Kendall Hansen has indicated that the late supplemental nomination fee of
$200,000 will be paid. Not This Time, retired to stud at Taylor
Made Farm. Mastery is off the trail with a
condylar fracture. El Areeb is off the trail with an
injury to his right knee.
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan Racing
Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as two
qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Here’s the video
of the Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
The
connections of Epicharis have stated that they will skip the Kentucky Derby
(G1) and may go to the Preakness (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
