©2017 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, with three marquee races on tap, the Road to the Kentucky Derby enters the stretch drive
taking us to Kentucky, New York and California where winners of those races
will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting
gate on the first Saturday in May.
At
Keeneland Racecourse in Kentucky, McCraken has been tabbed as the 7-5
morning-line favorite in the 93rd running of the $1 million Toyota
Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Post Time is 6:17 p.m. ET. Live television coverage of the race will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network from
5:30-7:30 p.m. ET. Live onsite coverage will also be on TVG beginning at 1 p.m.
McCraken
remains undefeated in four starts for trainer Ian Wilkes and he comes into this
race off of a 1½ length win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
MCCRAKEN settled off the pace inside, moved four wide passing the
quarter pole, closed well outside and pulled away under some left handed
encouragement.
McCraken
has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®
rating but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and he’s a proven,
consistent winner on the Kentucky Derby Trail. His split for the mile of
1:36.05 and final time of 1:42.44 was decent but Tapwrit, who’s also entered in
the Blue Grass, was gaining ground on McCracken in the final strides.
Ghostzapper, a 2012 Hall of Fame inductee
and the sire of McCraken, was an
incredibly talented, multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 9-0-1 record
in 11 starts with $3,466,120 in career earnings.
As
a two year old, Ghostzapper won his maiden special weight debut by nine lengths
and was 1-0-0 in two starts. At the age of three, Ghostzapper won the Vosburgh
Stakes (G1) and finished third in the King’s Bishop (G1), compiling a 3-0-1
record in four starts.
As
a four year old, Ghostzapper was undefeated in four starts winning the Tom Fool
Handicap (G2), Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3), Woodward Stakes
(G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (G1). In addition,
Ghostzapper was selected as the 2004 Eclipse Horse of the Year and Eclipse
Champion Older Horse.
In
his only start as a five year old, Ghostzapper was a 6¼ length winner of the
one mile Metropolitan Handicap (G1).
McCraken
missed the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), but since his last start, he’s been training
well and I look for him to run a good race. However, with his low profile
rating, I’m curious to see how well he will handle the stretch out in distance
to nine furlongs.
Tapwrit comes into this race for
trainer Todd Pletcher with a 3-1-0 record in five starts including a win in the
Pulpit Stakes, a second-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and a win
in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of his last
race:
TAPWRIT raced
three wide early, then settled nicely off the pace near the inside, began to
move up between rivals entering the far turn, gained quickly into contention of
the turn, moved to the three path for a clear run, rallied strongly outside of
the leader passing the quarter pole, easily took command, pulled away under
left hand urging in upper stretch and was kept to the task.
Tapwrit
flew by the leader and eventual second-place finisher, State of Honor, and increased his lead to win by a commanding 4½
lengths, setting a new stakes and track record final time of 1:42.36. Also, his
mile time of 1:35.75 was much better than 1:36.05 set by McCraken in the Sam F.
Davis Stakes (G3).
Tapit, the sire of Tapwrit, was a
multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with
$557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two year old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three year old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s
the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
With
an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® rating Tapwrit is one of the best
bred colts in this race and I would not be surprised to see him pull off the
upset in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2).
J
Boys Echo (4-1)
comes into this race with a 2-1-1 record in five starts for trainer Dale
Romans, including a 3½ length win in the Gotham Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of the Gotham:
J BOYS ECHO saved ground in mid pack, came under light coaxing
half a mile from home and closed the gap that opened up midway on the
backstretch, got put to further urging midway on the far turn and tipped out to
the four path nearing the five sixteenths, swung four then three wide into
upper stretch sweeping past the top pair straightened away and seizing command
just outside the three-sixteenths, edged clear under a light drive to the
finish.
J
Boys Echo finally earned graded-stakes honors in winning the Gotham Stakes by
3½ lengths. However, the final time of 1:46.34 is slower than what I like to
see a young colt run on the Derby trail.
Mineshaft, the sire of J Boys Echo, was
an outstanding route racer who compiled a 10-3-1 record in 18 lifetime starts. He
began his racing career in England at the age of three, winning a maiden weight
for age race at Newmarket. In November, Mineshaft was shipped to America where
he won two more races to close out the season with a 3-1-1 record in nine
starts.
As
a four year old, Mineshaft really proved himself as a champion and compiled a
7-2-0 record in route to earning Horse of the Year and Champion Older Horse
honors. In nine starts, Mineshaft won the New Orleans Handicap (G2), Ben Ali
Stakes (G3), Pimlico Special Handicap (G1), Suburban Handicap (G1), Woodward
Stakes (G1) and the Jockey Club Gold Club Stakes (G1).
With
an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s yet to fully live up to his
breeding. When
horses like J Boys Echo fail to run close to their Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score, then the issue[s] preventing them from reaching
their full potential needs to be investigated. And there can be many
contributing factors for a horse not running to his profile score – Effinex is a good example of that.
Wild
Shot (15-1)
comes into this race with a 1-2-2 record in six starts for trainer George
Arnold, II including a third-place finish in the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby
(G2). Here’s the video and chart call of his last
race:
WILD SHOT angled over to the rail soon after the start, settled
off the pace inside, moved up three wide on the far turn, came three wide into
the lane and rallied mildly to get up for third.
Wild
Shot was beaten six lengths by Taprwit. But, with A Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, Wild Shot has yet to fully live up to his
breeding and he’s not on par with Tapwrit who shares the same profile ranking.
Trappe
Shot, the sire
of Wild Shot, raced mostly in sprints from the age of two to four, compiling a
6-2-0 record in 12 starts with $703,884 in career earnings. His best stakes
victories were in the six furlong Waldoboro Stakes, True North Handicap (G2)
and he did stretch out to win the 8½ furlong Long Branch Stakes. In other route
races, Trappe Shote finished second in the nine-furlong Izod Haskell
Invitational (G1) and ninth in the Travers Stakes (G1).
To
date, Trappe Shot’s best runner on the Kentucky Derby Trail has been My
Man Sam who
finished second in the nine furlong 2016 Toyota Blue Grass (G1) stakes.
With
only one out-of-money finish, Wild Shot is a proven competitor on the trail.
However, I’ll be watching to see how well he and J Boys Echo handle the stretch
out in distance to nine furlongs in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2).
Let’s
take a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® for the
horses entered in this race:
Classic
Champion
Thoroughbred
Profile®
Entries Rank
1. J Boys Echo A+
2. Wild Shot A
3. Tapwrit A
4. Irap D
5. It’s Your
Nickel D
6. McCraken D
7. Practical Joke F
In addition, the Behavior Index can
move some horses up or down and here’s a look at the ranking of the Blue Grass
entries when you factor in the behavior variable.
Classic
Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®
& Behavior Index Model
Rank
1. McCraken
2. Tapwrit
3. J Boys Echo
4. Wild Shot
5. Irap
6. It’s Your
Nickel
7. Practical Joke
As
you can see in the Behavior Index Model, McCraken is moved up while J Boys Echo
and Wild Shot drop down in the ranking. McCraken is a talented colt but Tapwrit
was making up ground on him late in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and it will be
interesting to see how well McCraken responds in the stretch out to nine
furlongs.
One
model I looked at showed that Practical Joke (7-2) and It’s Your Nickel (20-1) could potentially crack the top four.
Practical
Joke is also a talented colt but he was all out to finish second by a half a
length over Three Rules in the Fountain of Youth
Stakes (G2). Gunnevera easily won that race but he
was a distant third to Always Dreaming in the nine-furlong Florida Derby (G1).
It’s
Your Nickel would need to improve significantly in order to secure the win but
if he looks good in the post parade he may be worthy of a small wager.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Blue Grass
Stakes (G2) will receive 100 points, the second-place finisher will receive 40
points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive 10 points.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2017 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Girvin, 150,
Joe Sharp, $849,800
2. Thunder Snow,
100, Saeed bin Suroor, $1,621,063
3. Always
Dreaming, 100, Todd Pletcher, $$589,000
4. Gunnevera, 84,
Antonio Sano, $1,137,800
5. State of
Honor, 62, Mark Casse, $309,564
6. Tapwrit, 54,
Todd Pletcher, $295,570
7. J Boys Echo,
53, Dale Romans, $255,000
8. Malagacy, 50,
Todd Pletcher, $540,000
9. Hence, 50,
Steve Asmussen, $$481,129
10. **Fast and
Accurate, 50, $320,712
11. Patch, 40,
Todd Pletcher, $200,000
12. Practical
Joke, 34, Chad Brown, $766,000
13. Untrapped,
34, Steve Asmussen, $210,000
14. Classic
Empire, 32, Mark Casse, $1,493,820
15. Local Hero,
30, Steve Asmussen, $140,000
16. Gormley, 20,
John Sherriffs, $284,000
17. McCraken, 20,
Ian Wilkes, $285,048
18. Master Plan,
20, Todd Pletcher, $214,700
19. Iliad, 20,
Doug O’Neill, $200,000
20. Sonneteer,
20, Keith Desormeaux, $186,000
**Owner
Kendall Hansen has indicated that the late supplemental nomination fee of
$200,000 will be paid. Not This Time, retired to stud at Taylor
Made Farm. Mastery is off the trail with a
condylar fracture. El Areeb is off the trail with an
injury to his right knee.
In
addition to the current top 20, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan
Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as
two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky
Derby. The
horse with the most points from those races will receive an invitation to
compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Here’s the video
of the Cattleya Sho Stakes. Here’s the video
of the Hayacinth Stakes.
2017 JAPAN ROAD TO KENTUCKY
DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Epicharis (JPN), 50, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $450,374
2.
Mont Saint Legame (JPN), 40, Koji Maki, $90,154
3.
Adirato (JPN), 20, Naosuke Sugai, $154,951
4.
Caucus (JPN), 16, Hideaki Fujiwara, $35,850
5.
Foggy Night (JPN), 5, Noriyuki Hori, $23,801
The connections of Epicharis have stated that they will skip the Kentucky Derby
(G1) and may go to the Preakness (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
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