©2016 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Tampa Bay Downs,
Saturday, where Brody’s Cause has been tagged as the 5-2
morning line favorite in the 36th running of the $350,000 Lambholm
South Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Post time for the race is 5:24 p.m. ET.
Brody’s
Cause and Destin (9-2), who’s also entered in
this race, are two colts I liked last fall and I wrote about them in my 2016
Kentucky Derby Outlook.
Brody’s Cause was ranked first on my top ten list of Derby qualifiers while
Destin was fifth on my top ten of horses yet to qualify.
With
an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, Brody’s
Cause is the best-bred colt in this herd and he comes into this race with a
2-0-1 record in four starts, including a one-length win in the Breeders’
Futurity Stakes (G1) and a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Stakes (G1) at Keeneland last October. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
BRODY'S CAUSE was
unhurried early, fanned into the five path in the far turn, rallied in the
stretch run and was gaining late to no avail.
Brody’s
Cause is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. His sire, Giant’s Causeway, was undefeated in three starts as
a 2-year-old, including wins in the Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1
Prix de la Salamandre Stakes, all at 7-furlongs.
As
a three year old, Giant’s Causeway raced 10 times and won five Group One races
including the Irish Champion Stakes, International Stakes, Sussex Stakes, St.
James’s Palace Stakes, Eclipse Stakes and he won the Group 3 Gladness Stakes.
He also finished second in four races: Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 2,000 Guineas
Stakes, Irish 2,000 Guineas and he finished second by a narrow neck to Tiznow
in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Overall,
Giant’s Causeway compiled a 9-4-0 record
in 13 starts, winning from 7- to 10-furlongs, and he was the 2000 Cartier
Racing Awards European Horse of the Year.
It
remains to be seen if trainer Dale Romans will have Brody’s Cause primed for
the win off of a four month layoff. However, he’s been training well and
regular jockey Corey Lanerie returns to the irons.
I
look for Brody’s Cause to run a good race.
To
date, Destin has compiled a 2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Todd
Pletcher. He’s a full brother to Creative Cause who finished fifth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby
(G1). That Derby was one of my best as I picked the top five finishers that
year.
Destin
made his debut as a three year old with a fourth-place finish in the Le Comte
Stakes (G3) and followed that with a win the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). Here’s a
look at the video and chart call his last race:
DESTIN settled nicely outside a
rival, moved up three wide entering the far turn, bid between rivals at the
quarter pole, responded in mid-stretch and drew clear, driving.
The
time of 1:37.40 for the mile and finish time of 1:43.67 is slower than what I
like to see a young colt run. However, that time makes Destin competitive with
most of the horses on the trail. Mohaymen
is the only colt, so far, to fair better with a 1:36.06 mile and final time of 1:42.84
in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
Destin
has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and, like Brody’s Cause, he was
sired by Giant’s Causeway.
Destin
ran with blinkers in his last two races and Pletcher appears to be
experimenting with the young colt as the blinkers come off in this race.
Jockey
Javier Castellano, who’s ridden Destin in two previous starts, picks up the
mount and I look for the pair to run a good race.
Tale of S’vall (12-1) is an interesting long shot I like in this
race. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s yet to live up to
his breeding and he comes into this race for trainer Barclay Tagg with a 1-0-0
record in two starts, including a fifth-place finish in the Champagne Stakes
(G1). Here’s the video and chart call of the race:
TALE OF S'AVALL gained a slight
advantage after the start, was pulling on the bit while being guided over to
the inside, cut the pace, kept at a slight distance from off the rail, and
facing pressure from two others, parked out in paths two and three
respectively, came under assault from the second place finisher as three-quarters
was being reached, yielded soon afterwards and steadily backed away.
Tale
of S’avall is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. His
sire, Tale of Ekati, was a versatile runner that
won the one mile Jerome Handicap (G2) and the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1). He also
won the 9-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a fourth-place finish
in the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
One
never knows if a young Thoroughbred, like Tale of S’avall, will live up to his
breeding and there can be many factors that contribute to a horse not running
to his Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® – Effinex is a good example of that.
Tale
of S’avall had been scheduled to end his season as a two year old with a run in
the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). However, foot
problems kept him from running in that race.
He’s
been training well and he has the breeding to be competitive in the Tampa Bay
Derby (G2). It remains to be seen if Tagg has Tale of S’avall ready off of the
five month break.
Rafting (6-1) comes into this
race for trainer Graham Motion with a 2-1-1 record in five starts including a
second-place finish to Destin in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). Here’s a look at
the video and chart call his last race:
RAFTING was bumped at the start,
settled off the rail, moved up three wide on the far turn, rallied three wide
into the stretch and could not go with the winner.
Rafting
has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’ll need to pick up the
pace in order to secure the win in this race.
Tapit, the sire of Rafting, was
undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity
(G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the
season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a
ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
Jockey
Edgar Prado retains the mount on Rafting who has room to improve in his second
start of the season. Another move forward could make Rafting competitive in the
Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
Honorable
mention goes to the Repole Stable’s Outwork (12-1) who won easily
by 4¼-lengths in his last start. Here’s the video
and chart
of that race.
Undefeated
in two starts, Outwork has yet to run in a route race and he’s stepping up in
class for trainer Todd Pletcher. He’s one of several Uncle Mo colts trained by
Pletcher and he has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score.
However, his Behavior Index and other Data Mining variables could, potentially,
make him competitive.
Sometimes,
horses with a low profile score can win races that are shorter than the classic
10 furlong distance. If Outwork can carry his speed to 8½ furlongs, he could,
perhaps, be a factor in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
*****
The
winner of Tampa Bay Derby (G2) will receive 50 points, the second-place
finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10
points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway
through the Championship series, beginning with the UAE Derby (G2) and
Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 26, the points will increase to 100 points for
the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for
fourth place.
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Mohaymen, 70,
Kiaran McLaughlin, $760,350
2. Gun Runner, 51,
Steve Asmussen, $249,200
3. Shagaf, 50,
Chad Brown, $240,000
4. Nyquist, 30,
Doug O’Neill, $1,700,000
5. Mor Spirit,
24, Bob Baffert, $336,800
6. Sunny Ridge,
23, Jason Servis, $505,600
7. Mo Tom, 22,
Tom Amoss $288,326
8. Laoban, 22,
Eric Guillot, $92,000
9. Forevamo, 20,
All Stall, Jr., $210,000
10. Zulu, 20,
Todd Pletcher, $79,200
11. Exaggerator,
16, Keith Desormeaux, $980,000
12. Flexibility,
15, Chad Brown, $232,500
13. Brody’s
Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
14.
Greenpointcrusader, 14, Dominick Schettino, $369,300
15. Swipe, 12,
Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
16. Fellowship,
12, Stanley Gold, $115,590
17. Adventist,
12, Leah Gyarmati, $65,000
18. Collected,
11, Bob Baffert, $105,000
19. Airoforce,
10, Mark Casse, $444,080
20.
Suddenbreakingnews, 10, Donnie Von Hemel, $410,000
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