©2015 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
“Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Empire State,
Saturday, where Flexibility will
go the starting gate as the even money, morning-line favorite in the 146th
running of the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time for
the race will be 3:50 p.m. ET.
Flexibility
comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record in three starts for trainer Chad Brown.
He won his maiden debut in October and followed that with a second-place finish
to Mohaymen in both the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Remsen:
FLEXIBILITY
prompted the pace from the two path, got set down the drive home, came up short
after tussling with the top one from upper to mid-stretch, continued onward in
a willing manner, after coming out a bit himself in the vicinity of the eighth
pole, to garner the place.
Flexibility
ran in second-place the entire race and was passed by Mohaymen in the stretch
drive. His inability to take the lead was telling and he’ll have to improve on
that going forward.
The
cut back in distance could benefit Flexibility who’s a sire-line descendant of
the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. And, his B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® also indicates that he should
be competitive in this race.
Bluegrass Cat, the sire of Flexibility, was a competitive colt and
multiple graded stakes winner on the 2005 and 2006 Kentucky Derby Trail.
As
a two year old, Bluegrass Cat compiled a 3-0-0 record in four starts, winning
the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). As a three year old, Bluegrass
Cat compiled a 2-4-0 record in seven starts, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes
and Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). He finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby
(G3), Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1).
Jockey
Irad Ortiz retains the mount and I look for them to run a good race.
Vorticity (4-1), comes into this race
with a 2-0-1 record in three starts for trainer James Lawrence, including a win
in the Marylander Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
VORTICITY showed speed along the
rail down the backstretch, failed to keep pace entering the turn, eased out to
the two path leaving the turn, gained command outside TALE OF E DUBAI near the
eighth pole and held sway under vigorous rousing.
Voticity
has yet to run in a route race, but his breeding indicates that he should be
able to handle this distance. He’s is a sire-line descendant of the Mr.
Prospector Ancestral Herd and he has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®.
Distorted Humor, the sire of Vorticity, made his first start in February
of his three-year-old racing season and he did not run in the Kentucky Derby.
Overall, he compiled an 8-5-3 record in 23 starts and his most notable stakes
wins were in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2), Salvator Mile Handicap (G3),
Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G3), Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) and the Ack
Ack Handicap (G3).
As
a stallion, Distorted Humor has sired numerous graded stakes winners, including
the classic champions Funny Cide, winner of the 2003 Kentucky
Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and Drosselmeyer, winner of the 2010 Belmont
Stakes (G1). Distorted Humor also is the grandsire of I’ll Have Another, winner of the 2012 Kentucky
Derby (G1).
A
sharp work out on December 27 could have Vorticity ready to run a good race and
I look for him to be competitive.
A
long shot I like in this race is Bird
of Trey who’s
been tabbed with 10-1 morning line odds. In five starts, he’s always finished
in the money and he comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record for trainer John
Servis.
In
his second start, Bird of Trey broke his maiden, devasting his rivals with a
runaway 11-length victory. In his last start, Bird of Trey scored another
impressive victory to win the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes by 7¼ lengths. Here’s
the video and chart call of that race:
BIRD OF TREY prompted the early
pace from the inside, was eased back slightly and moved to the outside, easily
took the lead entering the stretch and drew off under mild handling.
Bird
of Trey has not run in a route race, either, but his breeding indicates he
should be competitive at this distance. He’s is a sire-line descendant of the
Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®.
Birdstone, the sire of Bird of Trey, was
a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-0-0 record in nine starts. As
a two year old, Birdstone won the 2003 Champagne Stakes (G1), defeating Chapel Royal by 2½ lengths.
As
a three year old, Birdstone won the Belmont Stakes (G1), upsetting Smarty
Jones in his
bid to sweep the Triple Crown, and he won the Travers Stakes (G1).
At
stud, Birdstone has sired numerous graded stakes winners and he’s the sire of the
2009 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, Mine That Bird, and Summer
Bird, winner
of the 2009 Belmont Stakes (G1).
If
Bird of Trey moves forward in this race, he should be a tough competitor. A
sharp work on December 19 could have him ready to run a career best race.
Another
long shot I like is Donegal Moon (15-1) who comes into this
race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 1-1-1 record in five starts. In his last
race, he finished a disappointing fifth in the Remsen Stakes (G2). However, he
led for much of that race until faltering at the top of the stretch.
So,
the cut back in distance may benefit Donegal Moon and he could, perhaps, be
competitive. But, he’ll have
to improve his game considerably in order to secure the win.
*****
The
Jerome Stakes (G3) is the first qualifying race of the 2016 racing season. Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Jerome Stakes
(G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4 points,
the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher
will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby
qualifiers:
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Nyquist, 30,
Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Exaggerator,
16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
3. Brody’s Cause,
14, Dale Romans, $500,000
4. Mor Spirit,
14, Bob Baffert, $246,800
5. Swipe, 12,
Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
6. Airoforce, 10,
Mark Casse, $444,080
7.
Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
8. Mohaymen, 10,
Kiaran McLaughlin, $300,000
9. Cocked and
Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840
10. Riker, 10,
Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
11. Sunny Ridge,
8, Jason Servis, $355,600
12. Rated R
Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200
13. Toews On Ice,
4, Bob Baffert, $228,400
14. Flexibility,
4, Chad Brown, $100,000
15. Kasseopia
(GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
16. Harlan Punch,
2, Tom Amoss, $138,000
17. Hollywood
Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,250
18.
I’malreadythere, 2, Jerry Hollendorfer, $86,000
19. Mo Tom, 2,
Tom Amoss, $68,326
20. Sail Ahoy, 1,
Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $60,000
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