It's A Long Way To The First Saturday In May: Frosted, Carpe Diem, Mubtaahij looking Good

In my December 26, 2014 blog I took a look at how many two-year-old Thoroughbreds that won their final stakes prep race of the season went on to run in the Kentucky Derby. Here’s a look at an excerpt from that blog:

“However, when looking at the racing history of two-year-old Thoroughbreds, there’s a good possibility that we may not have seen the 2015 Kentucky Derby winner race in any of the major end-of-year prep races.

 “An analysis of those major prep races for the past 14 years shows that a total of 593 two-year-old Thoroughbreds competed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Hollywood Futurity (G1), Remsen (G2), Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Boyd Gaming’s Delta Jackpot (G3). Of those 593 runners, only 98 (16%) went on to compete as three year olds in the Kentucky Derby.

“Astonishingly, from that group of 98 two year old Thoroughbreds, only two won their prep race and went on to win the Kentucky Derby as a three year old: Street Sense won the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the 2007 Kentucky Derby; Super Saver won the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club and the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

“Giacomo finished second in the 2004 Hollywood Futurity and won the 2005 Kentucky Derby. Mine That Bird finished 12^th (dead last) in the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and won the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

“Other horses from the group of 98 that did not win the Kentucky Derby but went on to become Classic Champion Thoroughbreds include: Point Given (2001 Preakness, Belmont), Empire Maker (2003 Belmont), Afleet Alex (2005 Preakness, Belmont), Lookin at Lucky (2010 Preakness), Union Rags (2012 Belmont) and Oxbow (2013 Preakness).

“Overall, out of that group of 98, as three year olds only 19 (19%) finished on the board in the Derby and 12 (12%) finished in the money.”

Percentagewise, the Remsen has had the best results by a few percentage points:

From 2000 to 2013, a total of 110 horses competed in the Remsen. Of those 110 horses, 20 (18%) went on to compete as three year olds in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 20 competitors, five (25%) finished on the board in the Derby and three (15%) finished in the money.

2002 – Empire Maker finished third in Remsen and second in the 2003 Derby.

2005 – Bluegrass Cat won the Remsen and finished second in the 2006 Derby.

2010 – Mucho Macho Man finished second in Remsen and third in the 2011 Derby.

2012 – Normandy Invasion finished second in Remsen and fourth in the 2013 Derby.

2013 – Wicked Strong finished third in Remsen and fourth in the 2014 Derby.

*****

Horses that are off this year’s Derby trail include: Texas Red (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) and Leave the Light On (Remsen).

So, if these statistics hold true in this year’s Derby, Dortmund (Los Alamitos Futurity), El Kabeir (Kentucky Jockey Club) and Ocho Ocho Ocho (Delta Downs Jackpot) are throw outs as win candidates.

And, it bodes well for horses like Frosted (2^nd in Remsem), Carpe Diem (2^nd in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) and Mubtaahij who raced in the United Arab Emirates.

Arkansas Derby Racing Roundup

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Hot Springs, Arkansas where American Pharoah will go to the starting gate as the 1-2 morning-line favorite in the 79^th running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park. Post time is 7:18 ET. and you can watch the race on TVG from 6:30-7:30 p.m.

American Pharoah comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in four starts for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert, including wins in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), FrontRunner (G1) and Rebel (G2) stakes.

Last month, American Pharoah looked impressive winning the Rebel Stakes (G2) by 6¼-lengths. Baffert previously won the Rebel with Lookin at Lucky (2010), The Factor (2011), Secret Circle (2012) and Hoppertunity (2014). Most of those competitors were fast, like American Pharoah, but none of them went on to win at nine furlongs.

American Pharoah is the deserving favorite and I look for him to run a good race. I’ll be watching closely to see how he handles the stretch out to nine furlongs.

A long shot I like in this race is Win the Space (30-1) who’s yet to break his maiden and comes into this Derby with two third-place finishes. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

WIN THE SPACE broke a bit slowly, chased outside a rival or off the rail, came out into the stretch, angled to the inside approaching mid-stretch and just missed the place.

Here’s the video and chart call of his maiden debut:

WIN THE SPACE a bit slow to begin, pulled his way along off the rail then between foes on the backstretch, went up four wide on the turn, bid three deep into the stretch and held third.

In both races, Win the Space chased fast fractions and closed from dead last to finish a respectable third. That’s pretty good considering that his pedigree indicates Win the Space should run his best as the races get longer.

Win the Space earned a 95 Brisnet Speed figure in his last race and he has room to improve in his third start of the season. The blinkers come off and veteran Hall of Fame Jockey Kent Desormeaux, who rode Win the Space in his maiden debut, picks up the mount in this race.

I know it’s a big step up in class. But, Win the Space has the best pedigree in this herd and if he lives up to his breeding, he, perhaps, could pull off the upset at a nice price.

Madefromlucky (6-1) comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 2-2-1 record in six stars. He finished first in his debut as a three year old at Gulfstream Park and followed that up with a second-place finish to American Pharoah in the Rebel Stakes (G2).

He’s yet to win a stakes race, but Madefromlucky has room to improve in his third start of the season and his pedigree indicates that he should be more competitive stretching out to nine furlongs.

I look for him to run a good race.

Bold Conquest (20-1) also has room to improve in his third start of the season and he comes into the Arkansas Derby (G1) with a 1-2-2 record in six starts for trainer Steve Asmussen.

In his debut as a three year old in the Southwest Stakes (G3), Bold Conquest finished a respectable fourth, beaten by only 3½-lengths, off of a four month layoff. He followed that run with a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2).

Another move forward off of his last run will make him competitive in this race.

Honorable mention goes to Mr. Z (10-1), The Truth or Else (15-1) and Far Right (9-2) who are proven competitors but they’ll need to improve their game considerably in order to secure the win.

*****

The winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) will receive 100 points, second-place finisher will receive 40 points, third-place finisher will get 20 points and fourth-place finisher will get 10 points.

Dubai Sky, ranked 12^th in Derby point standings, fractured a cannon bone in training and is off the trail. Maftool, ranked 15^th in point standings, will not run in the Derby. Ami’s Flatter, ranked 17^th, will not run in the Kentucky Derby but will be trained for a run in the Canadian Queen’s Plate. Prospect Park, ranked 19^th, will skip the Derby due to an elevated white blood cell count.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. International Star, 171, Mike Maker, $940,979

2. Dortmund, 170, Bob Baffert, $1,230,000

3. Carpe Diem, 164, Todd Pletcher, $1,470,000

4. Frosted, 113, Kiaran McLaughlin, $776,200

5. Mubtaahij (IRE), 100, Mike de Kock, $1,400,000

6. Materiality, 100, Todd Pletcher, $632,028

7. El Kabeir, 95, John Terranova II, $720,792

8. Upstart, 76, Rick Violette Jr., $807,680

9. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

10. Itsaknockout, 60, Todd Pletcher, $288,560

11. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

12. Danzig Moon, 45, Mark Casse, $217,500

13. War Story, 44, Tom Amoss, $195,000

14. Tencendur, 41, George Weaver, $224,500

15. One Lucky Dane, 40, Bob Baffert, $200,000

16. Stanford, 40, Todd Pletcher, $151,400

17. Ocho Ocho Ocho, 30, Jim Cassidy, $760,250

18. Bolo, 30, Carla Gaines, $214,980

19. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

20. Keen Ice, 22, Dale Romans, $136,520

Santa Anita Derby Racing Roundup

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, with three marquee races on tap, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” enters the stretch drive taking us to Kentucky, New York and California where winners of those three races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

At Santa Anita Park in California, Dortmund been tabbed as the 3-5 morning line favorite in the 78^th running of the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1). Post Time is 6:30 p.m. ET and the race will be broadcast live on the NBC Sports Network from 5:00-7:00 p.m. ET.

Dortmund, ranked sixth in Kentucky Derby point standings, comes into this race undefeated in five starts for trainer Bob Baffert and, without question, he is the deserving favorite. His perfect run includes wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1), Robert B. Lewis (G3) and the Sand Felipe (G2) stakes. A big win Saturday could make him the Derby favorite.

Like most everyone else, I’ll be watching to see how well he runs in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Prospect Park (7-2), currently 20^th in point standings, perhaps is the only horse in this herd that can pull the upset over Dortmund. The only time they’ve ran against each other was in the San Felipe (G2) where Dortmund won by 1¼ lengths over a fast closing Prospect Park.

Prospect Park comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record in six starts for trainer Clifford Sise and he has room to improve in his third start of the season. Sise and jockey Kent Desormeaux are optimistic about the chances of Prospect Park in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and you can read more about that here.

I look for Prospect Park to run a good race.

One Lucky Dane (5-1) and Bolo (4-1) both have good speed and if they can carry that speed to nine furlongs they could be a factor in this race.

One Lucky Dane comes into this race for Baffert with a 2-1-1 record in five starts and he’ll need a first or second place finish in order to qualify for the Derby. Bolo, also will need to finish first or second and he comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in four starts for trainer Carla Gaines.

The Santa Anita Derby (G1) has been won by Baffert a record six times and this race has a rich history of producing quality competitors in the Kentucky Derby. You can read more about the history of this race in the 2015 Media Guide.

*****

The winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) will receive 100 points, second-place finisher will receive 40 points, third-place finisher will get 20 points and fourth-place finisher will get 10 points.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. International Star, 171, Mike Maker, $940,979

2. Mubtaahij (IRE), 100, Mike de Kock, $1,400,000

3. Materiality, 100, Todd Pletcher, $632,028

4. Upstart, 76, Rick Violette Jr., $807,680

5. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

6. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

7. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

8. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

9. Itsaknockout, 60, Todd Pletcher, $288,560

10. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

11. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

12. War Story, 44, Tom Amoss, $195,000

13. Maftool, 40, Saeed bin Suroor, $$630,595

14. Ami’s Flatter, 40, Josie Carroll, $195,200

15. Stanford, 40, Todd Pletcher, $151,400

16. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

17. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

18. Keen Ice, 22, Dale Romans, $136,520

19. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

20. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

20. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

          * Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.