© 2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights
reserved.
The
“Road To The Kentucky Derby” comes to Keeneland racetrack Saturday where an
overflow field of 15 horses has been drawn for the 90th running of
the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Only 14 horses are allowed to run
the Blue Grass and Divine Oath is the also eligible entrant. Bobby’s Kitten, owned by
Ken and Sarah Ramsey, is the 3-1 morning line favorite.
Trained
by Chad Brown, Bobby’s Kitten comes into the Blue Grass with a 3-0-2 record in
five starts, all on the turf, including victories last fall with a 6¼-length
romp in the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park and a third-place finish in the
blistering-fast Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park.
Jockey
Javier Castellano has ridden Bobby’s Kitten in his last three races and he
retains the mount for the Blue Grass. I look for them to be competitive.
The
young colt that interests me most in this race is Gala Award (5-1) who was a $1.5
million purchase
at the Keeneland 2012 September Yearling Sale for the connections of Michael B.
Tabor, Derrick Smith and Susan Magnier.
Trained
by Todd Pletcher, Gala Award comes into the Blue Grass with a 2-1-0 record in
three starts, all on the turf. His last prep coming into this race was the 9-furlong
Palm Beach Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park which he won, defeating another colt
I liked, Mr. Speaker, by
a half-length in the blistering time of 1:46.19.
If
Gala Award runs anywhere near that time on Saturday, he’s most likely the
winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
And
he has the breeding to do that. I still have yet to finalize my research numbers,
but Gala Award’s Tesio Index™ is
155.00 and his Ancestral Herd Index™ is 162.50 giving him a Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ of 317.50 which is one of the
highest profiles of the horses on the Derby Trail.
In
last year’s Derby blog,
I introduced the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ and,
overall, I was pleased with its debut. Since then, I’ve been working on refining
it and the numbers for this year’s Derby are producing some interesting
results. The Tesio Index™ and his Ancestral Herd Index™
are proprietary key puzzle pieces that
comprise the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ which is tool I use to measure potential and it
does not take into account other factors such as the horse’s will to win.
Another thing to keep in mind is that horses, for many different reasons,
sometimes fail to live up to their potential.
Time
will tell if Gala Award lives up to his breeding. But, if he wins the Blue
Grass Stakes (G1), he’ll be at least a superfecta bet in the Kentucky Derby.
I
haven’t analyzed Bobby’s Kitten yet, but he’ll probably have a high profile. It’s
a shame that Mr. Speaker, who as a possible for the Blue Grass, was not entered
in this race as he had a very high profile, too.
Pablo Del Monte (12-1)
is a long shot I like in this race. I wrote about him in my 2014
Kentucky Derby Outlook and ranked him 10th on my Derby Wish
List. However, overall, he’s been disappointing. But, both of his only wins
were at Keeneland and he comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in five
starts.
I
don’t know what Pablo Del Monte’s profile is as I haven’t calculated it. But he
has the breeding to be competitive in this race.
Pablo Del Monte
is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd and he’s bred
on a nick with the Nasrullah Ancestral. His nick is very similar to that of
Creative Cause who finished fifth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. However, at the
end of his 2-year-old racing season, Creative Cause was farther along in his
development than Pablo Del Monte.
Giant’s Causeway, the sire of
Pablo Del Monte, was
undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old (all at 7-furlongs) – winning the
Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes. As a
3-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was 6-4-0 in 10 starts, winning from 7- to
10-furlongs, and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the
Year.
Bring the Heat, the damsire of Pablo Del Monte, was
stakes-placed in the Real Good Deal Stakes and had a 3-1-1 record in seven
starts with $121,260 in earnings. In
Excess, the
second damsire of Pablo Del Monte, was a good router and multiple graded-stakes
winner who compiled an 11-2-3 record in 25 starts with $1,736,733 in career
earnings. In 1991, In Excess set a new track record of 1:58.33 in the
10-furlong Suburban Handicap (G1), earning a 120 Beyer Speed Figure for that
performance.
The
stretch out to 9-furlongs is the farthest that Pablo Del Monte has ever run but
he has the breeding to handle the distance. He’s been working out good at
Keeneland and he could be a big sleeper in this field.
Medal Count (9-2) comes
into the Blue Grass for trainer Dale Romans with a 3-0-0 record in six starts
including a 1¼-length win in the Transylvania Stakes (G3) at Keeneland last
weekend. Of Medal Count’s three wins, two have been since January and it looks
like he could be getting good at the right time of year.
If
Medal Count repeats his form in winning the Transylvania, I look for him to be competitive
in the Blue Grass.
Honorable
mention goes to So Lonesome
(50-1) who finished ninth to Gala Award in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3). His
finish time in that race would make him competitive in this field and a recent
bullet work out, his only bullet, could have him ready to run a good race at a
nice price.
*****
The
winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) will receive 100 points while second-place
will yield 40 points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the
fourth-place finisher will receive 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top
20 list:
2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
California Chrome, 150, Art Sherman, $782,250
2. Vicar’s In Trouble, 120, Mike Maker, $760,000
3. Wicked Strong, 102, Jimmy Jerkens, $640,000
4. Samraat, 100, Rick Violette, Jr., $650,000
5. Constitution,
100, Todd Pletcher, $600,000
6. Hoppertunity, 95,
Bob Baffert, $576,000
7. Intense
Holiday, 93, Todd Pletcher, $527,500
8. Wildcat Red,
90, Jose Garrofalo, $665,000
9. We Miss Artie,
60, Todd Pletcher, $544,000
10. Chitu, 54,
Bob Baffert, $440,000
11. Midnight Hawk, 52, Bob Baffert, $320,000
12. Ring Weekend,
50, Graham Motion, $260,000
13. Tapiture,
42, Steve Asmussen, $420,738
14. General
A Rod, 40, Mike Maker, $240,000
15. Albano, 34, Larry Jones, $190,000
16. Candy Boy, 30, John Sadler, $380,000
17. Cairo Prince,
24, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $520,000
18. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
19. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
20. Harry’s Holiday, 20, Mike Maker, $150,596
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