Hall
of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has had good fortune shipping his horses from
California to compete in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park. He’s won
three of the last four Southwest Stakes and today, Baffert will send Super Ninety Nine to the starting gate as the
7-5 morning line favorite in the 48th running of the prestigious
$300,000 graded-stakes race.
Super
Ninety Nine comes into the Southwest off of an impressive 3¼-length win going a
mile at Santa Anita Park on January 31. He earned a 103 Brisnet Speed Figure
for that performance and his final time of 1:35.11 is in the time zone of what
I like to see in a young colt that may have potential to be competitive on the
Kentucky Derby Trail.
With
Pulpit
as the sire and Unbridled’s Song as the damsire of Super Ninety
Nine, he should be able to stretch out to 8½-furlongs and I look for him to be
competitive in the Southwest Stakes (G3).
The
young colt I’m most intrigued with in this race is Big
Lute (6-1) who
comes into the Southwest off of an impressive 4¾-length maiden debut romp in a
6-furlong sprint at Oaklawn Park on February 1.
It’s
a big step in class for this young son of Midnight Lute and it’s too early to tell if he can be
competitive on the Derby trail. But, the professional manner Big Lute displayed
in his debut, and the ease in which he pulled away from his competition, hinted
at the possibility more good things to come.
And
Big Lute has the breeding to be a very good runner. Both he and his sire
Midnight Lute are bred on the same nick of Fappiano over Deputy Minister.
Midnight
Lute, was a tough racehorse and multiple graded-stakes winner that competed
mostly in sprint races, compiling a 6-3-1 record in 13 starts. Real
Quiet, the
grandsire of Big Lute, won the Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness Stakes (G1), and he
finished second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and
Belmont Stakes (G1) as a 3-year-old.
Deputy
Minister, the damsire of Big Lute, was a tough competitor winning eight of nine
starts as a 2-year-old and he was selected as the 1981 Canadian Horse of the
Year and 2-year-old champion in Canada and the United States. As a sire, Deputy
Minister sired the Canadian Classic Champion Awesome Again. As a damsire, Deputy Minister mares produced the
Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Rags to Riches and Jazil.
Palace
Music, the
sire of Big Lute’s second dam, was a multiple group and graded-stakes winner in
the United Kingdom, France and America and as a sire he sired the outstanding champion
Cigar.
Advocator, the sire of Big Lute’s third
dam, was a tough competitor who competed in 46 races during his career, compiling
a 5-4-10 record in 19 stakes races. As a 3-year-old, Advocator was a second-place
finisher in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1), and he
finished third in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Recently,
Midnight Lute has received some buzz as a hot sire and his runners are just now
beginning to have an impact. It remains to be seen how Big Lute will fare as a
3-year-old. But, since his impressive debut win, a recent bullet workout could
have Big Lute ready to run a good race.
Another
longshot I like in this race is Channel Isle (15-1). He’s trained by Hall of Fame trainer D.
Wayne Lukas who will also send the Smarty Jones Stakes hero Will Take Charge to the starting gate in the Southwest as the 5-1
morning line third-choice.
Channel
Isle comes into the Southwest with a 2-1-1 record in seven starts. In his debut
as a 3-year-old in a one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park, Channel Isle
trailed in sixth-place at the three-quarter pole but made a nice rally in the
stretch to win by three-quarters of a length.
Channel
Isle is bred to run better as the races get longer. His sire, English Channel was a multiple graded-stakes winner and good middle-distance
runner who compiled a 13-4-1 record in 22 starts on the turf. The tail-female
line of Channel Isle is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Linamix and Shirley Heights.
If
Channel Isle repeats the form of his last race, I look for him to be closing
fast down the lane in today’s race.
Always in a Tiz , the 4-1 morning line second-choice, has never
been out of the money in his last three starts and he comes into today’s race
with a narrow loss by a neck in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on January
21.
Tiznow, the sire of Always in a Tiz, was
an outstanding runner who compiled an 8-4-2 record in 14 dirt route races and
as a 3-year-old he won the Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes (G1), Super Derby (G1),
Goodwood Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and the Affirmed Handicap (G3).
Elusive Quality, the damsire of Always in a Tiz, competed mostly
in sprint races compiling a 5-2-2 record in 12 starts including a win in the
Jaipur Handicap (G3) and Poker Stakes (G3). He also was equally talented in
route racing compiling a 2-1-0 record in four starts.
Elusive
Quality is the sire of 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1)
winner Smarty Jones and stakes champions Raven’s
Pass, Quality
Road and Maryfield.
In
his last race, Always in a Tiz was closing fast in the Smarty Jones Stakes and with
the added distance of ground in today’s race I look for him to be competitive.
*****
Under
the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility
for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Southwest Stakes
(G3) will receive 10 points while second-place will yield 4 points, the
third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will
receive 1 point.
None
of the top four finishers of the El Camino Real Derby were nominated for the
Kentucky Derby so there were no changes in the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” Leaderboard top 20. Here’s a look at the
current top 20 list:
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
February 2, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1
= Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
2
= Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000
3
= Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000
4
= Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000
5
= Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
6
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381
7
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
8
= Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
9
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
10
= Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $151,771
11
= Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500
12
= Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000
12
= Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000
14
= Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668
15
= He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000
16
= Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017
17
= Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000
18
= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000
19
= Know More, 4, Doug O’Neill, $210,000
19
= Texas Bling, 4, Danele Durham, $210,000
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
February 19, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1
= Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
2
= Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000
3
= Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000
4
= Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000
5
= Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
6
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381
7
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
8
= Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
9
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
10
= Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000
11
= Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971
12
= Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500
13
= Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000
13
= Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000
15
= Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668
16
= He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000
17
= Fear The Kitten, 6, Mike Maker, $84,890
18
= Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017
19
= Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000
20
= Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000
Southwest Stakes (G3), Oaklawn
Park, February 18, 2013
1.
Super Ninety Nine, 10
2.
Fear The Kitten, 4
3.
Heaven’s Runway, 2
4.
Channel Isle, 1
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