Friday, February 22, 2013

Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup



An overflow field of 15 young Thoroughbreds has been drawn for Saturday’s 40th running of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds racetrack and it appears that several of them, depending on their level of development, could have the potential to step up and earn graded-stakes honors. Only 14 horses are eligible to enter the starting gate, but a recent post at the Downey Profile notes that Departing, Sunbean, and He’s Had Enough will be scratched from the race.

Trainer Chad Brown’s Normandy Invasion has been installed as the tepid 5-2 morning line favorite.  But, he hasn’t raced in over three months and he’s making his 3-year-old debut in what appears to be a contentious field. If Normandy Invasion repeats the form he displayed as a 2-year-old, he should be competitive but I’m not too keen on him for the win.

Trainer Steve Asmussen’s best hope for Derby glory this year could be, perhaps, Proud Strike who’s been tabbed with morning-line odds of 8-1. Proud Strike has been on my watch list since last fall. However, I did not mention him in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook because I could not find any videos of his previous races. In addition to pedigree, I always like to view videos of previous races to see if the horse has the will to win.

Nevertheless, I’ve been looking forward to see how Proud Strike would fare as a 3-year-old. And, I wasn’t disappointed he finally broke his maiden in his 3-year-old season debut at the Fair Grounds on January 12. The fractional splits and final time of 1:46.18 was not too impressive. But his Brisnet Pace Figures are a little above par for this race and his final speed figure of 98 is not too far off the mark.

Proud Strike has room to improve in his second start of the season and he picks up the services of veteran jockey Gary Stevens who came out retirement this year to resume racing. Stevens knows how to handle a young colt and he’s had his share of classic victories, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) three times in 1988, 1995 and 1997. He also won the Preakness Stakes (G1) twice in 1997 and 2001, and he’s a three-time winner of the Belmont Stakes (G1) with victories in 1995, 1998 and 2001.

Smart Strike, the sire of Proud Strike, has proven to be an outstanding sire of champions and classic champions. He sired the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Curlin and Lookin at Lucky and he’s the damsire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

In addition, Smart Strike is the sire of numerous Canadian Sovereign Award winners: Soaring Free, Portcullis, Added Edge, Eye of the Sphynx, Gold Strike; and Smart Strike is the sire of the American Eclipse Award winner English Channel.

The tail-female line of Proud Strike is pretty good, too, descending from the fifth dam and outstanding Matriarch of the Turf Gallorette. The tail-female line is also reinforced with the dual Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Pleasant Colony, The Minstrel, and Native Dancer.

If Proud Strike continues to move forward, he should be competitive in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).

As the leading trainer with five horses in the Churchill Downs Leaderboard top 20, trainer Todd Pletcher ships Palace Malice (8-1) in from Gulfstream Park. He comes into the race with a second-place finish in his debut as a 3-year-old in a 7-furlong sprint over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park on January 19. His pace figures in that race are mostly above par and his final speed figure of 101 is right on the mark.

Palace Malice has yet to run in a route race. However, if he’s anything like his sire Curlin, a classic champion son of Smart Strike, or his damsire, Royal Anthem, an outstanding turf horse who did his best racing at 10-furlongs and further winning the Fairway Stakes, King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) and Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) in England as well as the Canadian International Stakes (G1), then, Palace Malice should run better as the races get longer.

A recent bullet workout on February 17 could have him ready to run a good race and I look for Palace Malice to be competitive.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, currently ranked second with four horses in the Churchill Downs top 20 leaderboard, ships in California invader Code West who looks like he could be competitive in the Risen Star. In five starts, Code West has never been out of the money and in his last race he finished second to Baffert’s other trainee Super Ninety Nine who recently won the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.

Oxbow, trained by Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, already has a gate-to-wire win over this track in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) on January 19 and if he repeats the form of that race, he should be competitive in the Risen Star.



*****



As phase two of the “Road To The Kentucky Derby” kicks off this weekend, under the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Risen Star (G2) will receive 50 points while second-place will yield 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.

Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated February 19, 2013)



Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000

2 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000

3 = Oxbow, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $180,000

4 = Violence, 10, Todd Pletcher, $495,000

5 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600

6 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381

7 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374

8 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000

9 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000

10 = Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000

11 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971

12 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500

13 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000

13 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000

15 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668

16 = He’s Had Enough, 6, Doug O’Neill, $430,000

17 = Fear The Kitten, 6, Mike Maker, $84,890

18 = Tesseron, 5, Josie Carroll, $49,017

19 = Bern Identity, 4, Kelly Breen, $572,000
20 = Capo Bastone, 4, Todd Pletcher, $246,000



Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated February 24, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Ive Struck a Nerve, 51, Keith Desormeaux, $268,000
2 = Orb, 50, Shug McGaughey III, $240,000
3 = Violence, 30, Todd Pletcher, $575,000
4 = Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
5 = Goldencents, 24, Doug O’Neill, $740,000
6 = Code West, 20, Bob Baffert, $80,000
7 = Oxbow, 16, D. Wayne Lukas, $196,000
8 = Speak Logistics, 11, Eddie Pleasa, Jr., $52,500
9 = Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
10 = Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $296,381
11 = Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
12 = Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
13 = Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
14 = Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000
15 = Will Take Charge, 10, D. Wayne Lukas, $152,971
16 = Falling Sky, 10, John Terranova II, $122,500
17 = Flashback, 10, Bob Baffert, $120,000
17 = Revolutionary, 10, Todd Pletcher, $120,000
19 = Palace Malice, 10, Todd Pletcher, $40,000
20 = Dynamic Sky, 8, Mark Casse, $271,668


Risen Star Stakes (G2), Fair Grounds, February 23, 2013
1. Ive Struck a Nerve, 50
2. Code West, 20
3. Palace Malice, 10
4. Oxbow, 5

Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), Gulfstream Park, February 23, 2013
1. Orb, 50
2. Violence, 20
3. Speak Logistics, 10
4. Majestic Hussar, 5
 

2 comments:

  1. Hi Calvin, in a race that speed may be the deciding factor when the gates open. Code West draws inside and has the speed to wire the field. He is my pick to sprint away from the gate and never be caught in the lane. Baffert strikes again

    ReplyDelete
  2. Barry,

    I think he'll be competitive and will watch to see how well he performs.

    Good Luck my friend!

    ReplyDelete