Finish In Final Prep Race Crucial To Win, Exotics In Kentucky Derby

After the running of the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1), I had a pretty good idea of the horses I would use in my Kentucky Derby wagers.

Animal Kingdom has been my favorite since I wrote about him in my 2011 Kentucky Outlook last December. Midnight Interlude was my pick to win the Santa Anita Derby. I also picked Brilliant Speed to win the Blue Grass and I tagged Nehro as a possible upset candidate in the Arkansas Derby.

Of course each race is different but I like the chances of the previously mentioned horses and I’ll use them in my Derby wagers.

Between now and the Derby, I’ll also be looking at the rest of the field to see if there are any others that I like before making my final selections. Two colts I especially like are Archarcharch and Master of Hounds.

Archarcharch was my longshot pick in the Southwest Stakes but I did not use him in the Arkansas Derby after his performance in the Rebel Stakes. Master of Hounds is one of the best bred colts on the trail.

In addition, I’m going to take another look at Toby’s Corner, Uncle Mo, Comma To The Top, Mucho Macho Man, Pants On Fire and Dialed In before making a final pick.

I’ll also be taking a look at some statistics that may help to narrow down our Derby selections.

A recent discovery I made while researching the history of the final 9-furlong prep races – Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Illinois Derby and Sunland Derby – shows that since 2000, the top four finishers of the Kentucky Derby (with a few exceptions) finished in the top three of their final prep race. Only seven horses that finished worse than third in their final prep race have finished in the Derby top four.

No horses coming out of the Louisiana Derby and UAE Derby as a final prep race have finished in the Derby top four since 2000. There were no horses coming out of this year’s Illinois Derby with enough graded stakes earnings to get into the Derby starting gate.

The Wood Memorial Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes tied at nine each have produced the most finishers in the Derby top four since 2000. The Arkansas Derby has had seven; the Santa Anita Derby had five; the Florida Derby had 4; the Illinois Derby had three and the Sunland Derby had one finish in the Derby top four.

Hard Spun won the Lane’s End (Vinery) which was his final prep in 2007. Perfect Drift won the 2002 Lane’s End as a final prep.

Here’s a look at the statistics:

Wood Memorial - 9

2008: 1^st - Tale of Ekati ; 3^rd in Derby

2006: 2^nd - Jazil; dh-4^th in Derby

2003: 1^st - Empire Maker; 2^nd in Derby

2003: 2^nd - Funny Cide; 1^st in Derby

2002: 2^nd - Medaglia D’Oro ; 4^th in Derby

2001: 1^st – Congaree; 3^rd in Derby

2001: 2^nd – Monarchos; 1^st in Derby

2000: 1^st – Fusaichi Pegasus; 1^st in Derby

2000: 3^rd – Aptitude; 2^nd in Derby

Blue Grass - 9

2010: 2^nd – Paddy O’Prado; 3^rd in Derby

2007: 2^nd – Street Sense; 1^st in Derby

2006: 4^th - Bluegrass Cat; 2^nd in Derby

2005: 3^rd – Closing Argument; 2^nd in Derby

2004: 2^nd – Lion Heart; 2^nd in Derby

2004: 3^rd – Limehouse; 4^th in Derby

2003: 1^st – Peace Rules; 3^rd in Derby

2001: 4^th - Invisible Ink; 2^nd in Derby

2000: 2^nd – More Than Ready; 4^th in Derby

Arkansas Derby - 7

2010: 2^nd – Super Saver; 1^st in Derby

2009: 1^st – Papa Clem; 4^th in Derby

2007: 1^st – Curlin; 3^rd in Derby

2006: 2^nd – Steppenwolfer; 3^rd in Derby

2005: 1^st – Afleet Alex; 3^rd in Derby

2004: 1^st – Smarty Jones; 1^st in Derby

2000: 3^rd – Impeachment; 3^rd in Derby

Santa Anita Derby - 5

2009: 1^st – Pioneerof The Nile; 2^nd in Derby

2008: 1^st – Brother Derek; 4^th dh in derby

2005: 4^th – Giacomo; 1^st in Derby

2004: 3^rd – Imperialism; 3^rd in Dreby

2003: 4^th – Atwhatimtalknbout; 4^th in Derby

Florida Derby – 4

2010: 1^st – Ice Box; 2^nd in Derby

2008: 1^st – Big Brown; 1^st in Derby

2007: 6^th – Imawildandcrazyguy; 4^th in Derby

2006: 1^st – Barbaro; 1^st in Derby

Illinois Derby – 3

2009: 1^st – Musket Man; 3^rd in Derby

2008: 5^th – Denis of Cork; 3^rd in Derby

2002: 1^st – War Emblem; 1^st in Derby

Sunland Derby – 1

2009: 4^th – Mine That Bird; 1^st in Derby

Based on the history of final prep races since 2000, here’s a look at the top finishers in this year’s final prep races.

Wood Memorial Stakes: Toby’s Corner – 1^st; Uncle Mo – 3^rd

Blue Grass Stakes: Brilliant Speed – 1^st; Twinspired – 2^nd

Arkansas Derby: Archarcharch – 1^st; Nehro – 2^nd

Santa Anita Derby: Midnight Interlude – 1^st; Comma To The Top – 2^nd

Florida Derby: Dialed In – 1^st; Shackleford – 2^nd

Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes: Animal Kingdom – 1^st; Decisive Moment – 2^nd

Sunland Derby: Twice The Appeal – 1^st

Pants On Fire finished first in the Louisiana Derby; Nehro finished second and Mucho Macho Man finished third but no horses coming out of this race since 2000 have finished in the Derby top four. Master of Hounds finished second in the UAE Derby but not horses coming out of this race have finished in the Derby top four.

Breaking news today that The Factor and J P’s Gusto will skip the Derby bumps Shackleford, ranked 21^st on the graded stakes list, and Twinspired, 22^nd in graded stakes earnings, into the Derby starting gate if the connections decide to run. Only the top twenty horses with the most graded stakes earnings are eligible to get into the Derby starting gate.