Mr. Prospector "No Shows", Nasrullah, Northern Dancer Descendants Impact Derby 137

Since Unbridled won the 116^th running of the Kentucky Derby in 1990, descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line have dominated the classic race. In 2009, a record 10 Mr. Prospector sire line descendants competed in the Derby.

But this year, with Master of Hounds and Watch Me Go as the only potential starters from that sire line, Derby 137 will have the fewest contenders of Mr. Prospector descendants since 1994 when Powis Castle finished 8^th and Mahogany Hall finished 9^th.

Premier Pegasus appeared to be the most promising colt from the Mr. Prospector sire line to have a good chance in Derby 137 but he was taken off of the trail with an injury. Brethren, Elite Alex and Sway Away were the other promising colts from that sire line but their poor showing in the Arkansas Derby knocked them out of contention when they failed to get the graded earnings necessary to get into the Derby starting gate.

Since 1990, a total of 374 horses have competed in the Kentucky Derby and 106 (28%) of them have been descendants of Mr. Prospector. Of those 106 horses, 25 (24%) finished in the top four and 10 won the Derby.

Here’s a look at the yearly total of Mr. Prospector sire line competitors since 1990 and the horses that finished in the top four:

2010 – 8

2009 – 10. Mine That Bird 1^st; Pioneerof The Nile 2^nd; Papa Clem 4^th

2008 – 5. Eight Belles 2^nd

2007 – 7. Street Sense 1^st; Curlin 3^rd

2006 – 7. Jazil dh-4^th

2005 – 6. Afleet Alex 3^rd

2004 – 8. Smarty Jones 1^st; Limehouse 4^th

2003 – 6. Funny Cide 1^st; Empire Maker 2^nd; Peace Rules 3^rd

2002 – 6. War Emblem 1^st; Proud Citizen 2^nd

2001 – 5. Invisible Ink 2^nd

2000 – 6. Fusaichi Pegasus 1^st

1999 – 4

1998 – 6. Real Quiet 1^st; Victory Gallop 2^nd; Hallory Hunter 4^th

1997 – 3

1996 – 6. Grindstone 1^st; Prince Of Thieves 3^rd

1995 – 3. Thunder Gulch 1^st; Timber Country 3^rd

1994 – 2

1993 – 3

1992 – 1

1991 – 1

1990 – 3. Unbridled 1^st

NASRULLAH

Since 1990, the Nasrullah sire line (including Bold Ruler) has had 61 (16%) descendants compete in the Kentucky Derby. This year’s Derby field has a record number of seven potential runners from the Nasrullah sire line and a record four of those are from the A.P. Indy/Bold Ruler line.

Here are the Nasrullah sire line horses in Derby 137:

Horse, Sire, Sire Line

Animal Kingdom, Leroidesanimaux-Blushing Groom line

Nehro, Mineshaft-A.P. Indy line

Dialed In, Mineshaft-A.P. Indy line

Pants On Fire, Jump Start-A.P. Indy line

Stay Thirsty, Bernardini-A.P. Indy line

Uncle Mo, Indian Charlie-Caro line

Comma To The Top, Bwana Charlie/Indian Charlie-Caro line

No horse from the Nasrullah sire line has won the Kentucky Derby since 1990. But 11 (18%) of those 61 descendants have finished in the top four.

The A.P. Indy line has had 25 runners in the Derby since 1990 and six (24%) of those finished in the top four:

2010: Ice Box 2^nd

2006: Steppenwolfer 3^rd

2005: Don’t Get Mad 4^th

2003: Atswhatimtalknbout 4^th

2000: Aptitude 2^nd

1997: Pulpit 4^th

The Blushing Groom sire line, which is the line of Animal Kingdom, has had eight runners in the Derby since 1990 and two (25%) of them finished in the top four:

2009: Musket Man 3^rd

2001: Congaree 3^rd

The Caro sire line, which is the line of Uncle Mo and Comma To The Top, has had five runners in the Derby since 1990 and two (40%) of them finished in the top four:

1998: Indian Charlie 3^rd

1995: Tejano Run 2^nd

Indian Charlie, the sire of Uncle Mo and grandsire of Comma To The Top, has sent two runners to the Derby and both finished out of the money:

2010: Conveyance 15^th

2003: Indian Express 14^th

NORTHERN DANCER

Since 1990, the Northern Dancer sire line has had 93 (25%) runners in the Kentucky Derby. This year’s field, with seven potential runners, is tied with the 2002 field of Derby entrants as the second largest showing of Northern Dancer descendants in the Kentucky Derby. In 1993, there were eight Northern Dancer descendants entered in the Derby.

Here’s a look at the Northern Dancer descendants in Derby 137:

Decisive Moment, With Distinction-Storm Cat line

Santiva, Giant’s Causeway-Storm Cat line

Shackleford, Forestry-Storm Cat line

Twinspired, Harlan’s Holiday-Storm Cat line

Midnight Interlude, War Chant-Danzig line

Soldat, War Front-Danzig line

Toby’s Corner, Bellamy Road-Danzig line

Since 1990 there have been 20 (22%) of the 93 Northern Dancer descendants finish in the top four of the Kentucky Derby. Of those 20 horses, seven are descendants of Storm Cat:

2010: Make Music For Me 4^th

2008: Denis of Cork 3^rd and Tale Of Ekati 4^th

2006: Bluegrass Cat 2^nd

2004: Lion Heart 2^nd

1999: Menifee 2^nd and Cat Thief 3^rd

Four of those 20 horses are descendants of Danzig:

2008: Big Brown 1^st

2007: Hard Spun 2^nd

2004: Imperialism 3^rd

1993: Sea Hero 1^st

ROYAL CHARGER

Since 1990, the Royal Charger sire line has had 36 (10%) runners in the Kentucky Derby. Of those 36 horses, 13 (36%) finished in the Derby top four and five (38%) of those 13 are out of the line of Roberto who is the grandsire of Brilliant Speed and and great grandsire of Archarcharch.

Dynaformer, the sire of Brilliant Speed, has a good record in the Kentucky Derby. He has only sent three runners to previous Derbies and they all finished in the money:

2006 – Barbaro: 1^st

2002 – Perfect Drift: 3^rd

1994 – Blumin Affair: 3^rd

That statistic is how I focused on Brilliant Speed and after studying his past performances I made him my pick to win the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

In my opinion, the best runner from the Mr. Prospector sire line is Master of Hounds; the best runners from the Nasrullah line are Animal Kingdom, Nehro, Uncle Mo and Comma To The Top; The best runner from the Northern Dancer line is Midnight Interlude and I like Brilliant Speed from the Royal Charger sire line.