Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To
Determine Outcome of Belmont Stakes
By
Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The classic trail
to the third jewel of the Triple Crown takes us this Saturday to Belmont Park in
Elmont, New York, where TACITUS has been tagged as the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the 151st
running of the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1). Post time is 6:37 ET.
Knowing
as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a
classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research
and study led to the creation of the Classic
Champion Thoroughbred Profile® which is an analytical tool that measures the
breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The profile is breeding, sales
and racing analysis tool used to measure
the graded stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
In
addition to the profile, we have also created a Behavior Index which allows us to identify
legitimate and false race contenders and thus move some horses up or down in
ranking.
Let’s
look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in the Belmont Stakes.
As
you can see in the Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, seven of the ten horses entered in this
race have a grade ranking of A or better making this a very good Belmont field
of contenders.
In
the second chart, the Behavior Index has been applied to five horses
highlighted in red allowing us to move horses up or down in ranking. Regarding handicapping,
if you think that any of the top four horses in the first chart are false
contenders, then they could be moved down in ranking and horses like Tax and Intrepid
Heart, in the second chart, could be moved up into the top four ranking.
Let’s
look at the horses I like in this race.
TACITUS has been tabbed the 9-5 morning-line
favorite and he comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in five starts for
trainer Bill Mott including fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He
was placed third due to the disqualification of Maximum Security who crossed
the finish line first. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
TACITUS steadied
while unsettled behind horses first time through the stretch, found a better rhythm
through the middle stages, came five wide off the turn, exchanged brushes with
GAME WINNER late and finished with good courage.
Tacitus
ran well in just his third start of the season to finish only 3¼ lengths shy of
victory.
Tapit,
the sire of Tacitus, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0
record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was
undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for
much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial
Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous
graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit
(2017), Creator
(2016) and Tonalist
(2014).
Tacitus has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the
best-bred horse in this herd of runners. Tacitus has the breeding to win this
race and I look for him to take another step forward in the stretch out to 12
furlongs.
WAR OF WILL (2-1) comes into this race with
a 4-1-1 record in ten starts including a win in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
WAR OF WILL broke
alertly, was nicely in hand saving ground on the first turn, rated kindly
behind the leader down the backstretch, advanced leaving the far turn, had an
opening along the inner rail, took command leaving the three sixteenths, edged
away under brisk urging and held firm.
War
of Will’s win in the Preakness Stakes (G1) was sweet redemption after he was hampered
severely by Maximum Security at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby
(G1)
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a
graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet
Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a
final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints
where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and
second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went
on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor,
a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2)
and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War Front’s lifetime top runners
include: Lines
of Battle, Departing,
Declaration
of War, Warning
Flag, Lancaster
Bomber, Summer Front,
War
Dancer, Roly Poly,
Avenge,
Jack
Milton, Air Force
Blue, Data Link
and Hit
it a Bomb.
War
of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him a
legitimate contender.
TAX (15-1) comes into this race with
a 2-2-1 record in six starts including a fifteenth-place finish in the win in
the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
TAX saved ground throughout
and was no factor.
Tax
is much better than how he ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and I look for him to
improve off that race.
Arch, the sire of Tax, was a multiple
graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969
in career earnings.
Arch
made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at
Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at
Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including
wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders'
Cup Stakes (G3).
Arch
passed away in 2016 and as a stallion, his best runners include: Instilled Regard, Nyaleti, Arklow, Blame, Grand
Arch, Arravale, Hymn
Book, Art
Trader, Les
Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine
Island.
Tax
has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding to be
competitive. I look for him to run good.
INTREPID HEART (10-1) comes into this race with
a 2-0-1 record in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a third-place
finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart
call of that race:
INTREPID
HEART stumbled at the start then got bumped by FEDERAL CASE who broke inwards,
chased just off the inside down the backstretch, came under coaxing at the nine-sixteenths
and tipped four wide through the turn, swung five wide into upper stretch, drifted
in straightened away and weakened while passing a pair of tiring rivals to
secure the show honors.
In
just his third career start, and second start of the season, Intrepid Heart
finished a respectable third in the step up to Graded Stakes competition against
seasoned runners.
Tapit, the sire of Intrepid Hearst,
was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts
with $557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont
Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
Intrepid
Heart has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding
to be competitive. He’s an improving colt and I look for him to take another
step forward in his third start of the season.
Tacitus
has the best breeding by far and he should win this race. There’s not much in
the profile score that separates the other five horses with an A+ profile. Honorable
mention goes to Bourbon War
(12-1), Spinoff (15-1) and
Sir Winston (12-1).
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