©2018
Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
The Road
to the Kentucky Derby features two marquee races this
Saturday beginning with the Claiborne Breeders’
Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Racecourse and wrapping up with the
Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park.
Let’s look at the 105th
running of the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) where MIND CONTROL
heads a herd of 14 runners as the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite. Post time
is 5:14 p.m. ET.
Mind Control comes into this race
with a 2-1-0 record in three starts for trainer Gregory Sacco including a narrow
in in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video
and chart
call
of that race:
MIND CONTROL coaxed
from the gate, ranged up to lock on and duel from the two lath with NITROUS with
six furlongs to go, knocked heads in hand with that rival down the backstretch
and through the far turn coming under coaxing at the five sixteenths just prior
to getting joined by MUCHO nearing the quarter pole stacked outside in the
three path, cornered just off the inside for home, edged away under a drive to
the eighth pole, then held safe to the finish to prevail kept to task.
Mind
Control valiantly dueled with Mucho in the stretch drive to prevail by a narrow
three-quarters of a length.
Stay Thirsty, the sire of Mind Control, was a
multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled a 5-5-1 record in 17 starts with
$1,936,000 in career earnings.
In
four starts as a two-year-old, Stay Thirsty compiled a 1-2-0 record with a win
in the Hopeful Stakes.
As
a three-year-old, Stay Thirsty compiled a 3-1-1 record in eight starts and his
most notable wins were in the Gotham Stakes (G3), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and
Travers Stakes (G1). He also finished third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes
(G1).
Stay
Thirsty was 1-2-0 in five starts as a four-year-old and his only stakes win was
in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1). He also finished second in the Vanlandingham
Stakes and the TVG Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational Stakes (G1).
A
recent bullet work could have Mind Control ready to run a good race. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile® ranking is a B, but his Behavior
Index could potentially make him competitive in this race.
STANDARD DEVIATION (10-1) is stepping up in class
and he comes into this race off a maiden win at Saratoga for trainer Chad
Brown. Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
STANDARD DEVIATION
five paths off the inside in pursuit from mid-pack down the backstretch, tucked
to the three path half a mile from home beginning to steadily advance, came
under coaxing at the three-eighths, got floated five wide in upper stretch as
MY AMERICA went for wide for home just to the inside, rallied to collar the
leader just inside the eighth pole, then edged away through to the finish kept
to task.
Standard
Deviation looked good running about 3½ lengths off the pace then pulled away on
the far turn to easily win his maiden debut by 2¾ lengths.
Curlin, the sire of Standard Deviation, was an outstanding
racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800
in career earnings.
Curlin did not
start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine
starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and
Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby
(G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important
stakes wins include the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
In
six crops as a stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes
(G1) winner Exaggerator. In addition, Curlin produced
the classic-placed runners Good Magic (second, 2018 Kentucky Derby), Tenfold (third, 2018 Preakness), Ride On Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice (third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish
War Cry
(second, 2017 Belmont).
With an A+ Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile®, Standard Deviation is the best-bred colt in this herd
and he was a yearling (Hip 1630)
we profiled
at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
DREAM MAKER (5-1) comes into this race with
a 1-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Mark Casse including a fifth-place finish
in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video
and chart
call
of that race:
DREAM MAKER three
wide and in pursuit from near the rear, strode greenly along displaying high
action at times facing kickback, tucked to the two path into the turn before
getting out three then four wide near the three eighths and came under coaxing
at that station, swung four to five wide for home and offered no response.
In
just his second start, Dream Maker showed his immaturity but finished a
respectable fifth 4¾ lengths off the mark.
Tapit, the sire of Dream Maker, was a
multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with
$557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont
Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator
(2016) and Tonalist (2014).
With
an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Dream Maker is the second-best
bred colt in this herd and he has the breeding to be competitive. However, to
earn graded stakes honors, he’ll need to improve his game.
The
stretch out in distance and a recent bullet work out could have Dream Maker ready
to run a good race.
SOMBEYAY (5-1) comes into this race with a
2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a fourth-place
finish in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video
and chart
call of that race:
SOMBEYAY lightly
coaxed along chasing two to three wide from mid pack, got set down three wide
at the quarter pole, shied out under a near sided stick nearing the eighth pole
and kept on to secure the last major share.
Somebeyay
was never really a threat but he finished a respectable fourth just 3½ lengths
shy of victory.
Into Mischief, the sire of Sombeyay, was a precocious colt and
multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-3-0 record in six starts with
$597,080 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Into Mischief easily won his maiden debut by 2½ lengths at
Santa Anita Park on October 21, 2007. He went on to finish second in the
Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and followed that with a win in the 8½-furlong
CashCall Futurity (G1). His finish time of 1:40.82 was just a few ticks off of
the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites
and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.
In
his debut as a three-year-old in February 2008, Into Mischief finished second
to Georgie
Boy in the San Vicente Stakes (G2). He came out of that race with an
injury
to his right-hind foot and he was taken off the Triple Crown Trail.
After
an extended break, Into Mischief returned to racing in October winning the
Damascus Stakes by two lengths. In December, Into Mischief finished his racing
season with a second-place finish in the Malibu Stakes (G1).
Into
Mischief’s best runners on the Kentucky Derby Trail have been Audible,
Goldencents,
Practical
Joke, Vyjack and Vicar’s
in Trouble. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby and finished 17th
in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Practical Joke finished second in the Toyota Blue
Grass Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Derby. Vyjack finished third in the Wood
Memorial Stakes (G1) and 18th in the Derby. Vicar’s in Trouble won
the Louisiana Derby and finished 19th in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Harlan’s Holiday, the grandsire of Audible, won
the Florida Derby (G1), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and finished seventh in
the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Sombeyay
has a low E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, but his Behavior
Index could potentially make him competitive in this race.
Honorable
mention goes to the pair trained by Dale Romans, Moonster (10-1) and Mr. Ankeny (12-1).
*****
A
total of 35 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby. In addition, there
are seven races on the European road to the Kentucky Derby and there three
races on the Japan road to Derby glory.
2018/2019 KENTUCKY DERBY
LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. Cairo Cat, 10, Ken McPeek
2. Game Winner, 10, Bob Baffert
3. Tight Ten, 4, Steve Asmussen
4. Gunmetal Gray, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
5. Pole Sitter, 2, Brad Cox
6. Rowayton, 2, Jerry Hollendorfer
7. Tobacco Road, 1, Steve Asmussen
8. Jefe, 1, Keith Desormeaux
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer
1.
Mohawk (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien
2.
Japan, 10, Aidan O’Brien
3.
Sydney Opera House (GB), 4, Aidan O’Brien
4.
Mount Everest (IRE), 4, Aiden O’Brien
5.
Cape of Good Hope (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien
6.
Power of Now (IRE), 2, M. O’Callaghan
7.
Sovereign (IRE), 1, Aiden O’Brien
8.
Victory Command, (IRE), 1, Mark Johnston
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