Thursday, October 4, 2018

Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Racing Roundup


©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby features two marquee races this Saturday beginning with the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Racecourse and wrapping up with the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park.
Let’s look at the 105th running of the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) where MIND CONTROL heads a herd of 14 runners as the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite. Post time is 5:14 p.m. ET.
Mind Control comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in three starts for trainer Gregory Sacco including a narrow in in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MIND CONTROL coaxed from the gate, ranged up to lock on and duel from the two lath with NITROUS with six furlongs to go, knocked heads in hand with that rival down the backstretch and through the far turn coming under coaxing at the five sixteenths just prior to getting joined by MUCHO nearing the quarter pole stacked outside in the three path, cornered just off the inside for home, edged away under a drive to the eighth pole, then held safe to the finish to prevail kept to task.

Mind Control valiantly dueled with Mucho in the stretch drive to prevail by a narrow three-quarters of a length.
Stay Thirsty, the sire of Mind Control, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled a 5-5-1 record in 17 starts with $1,936,000 in career earnings.
In four starts as a two-year-old, Stay Thirsty compiled a 1-2-0 record with a win in the Hopeful Stakes.
As a three-year-old, Stay Thirsty compiled a 3-1-1 record in eight starts and his most notable wins were in the Gotham Stakes (G3), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and Travers Stakes (G1). He also finished third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1).
Stay Thirsty was 1-2-0 in five starts as a four-year-old and his only stakes win was in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1). He also finished second in the Vanlandingham Stakes and the TVG Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational Stakes (G1).
A recent bullet work could have Mind Control ready to run a good race. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking is a B, but his Behavior Index could potentially make him competitive in this race.
STANDARD DEVIATION (10-1) is stepping up in class and he comes into this race off a maiden win at Saratoga for trainer Chad Brown. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

STANDARD DEVIATION five paths off the inside in pursuit from mid-pack down the backstretch, tucked to the three path half a mile from home beginning to steadily advance, came under coaxing at the three-eighths, got floated five wide in upper stretch as MY AMERICA went for wide for home just to the inside, rallied to collar the leader just inside the eighth pole, then edged away through to the finish kept to task.

Standard Deviation looked good running about 3½ lengths off the pace then pulled away on the far turn to easily win his maiden debut by 2¾ lengths.
Curlin, the sire of Standard Deviation, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
In six crops as a stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Exaggerator. In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Good Magic (second, 2018 Kentucky Derby), Tenfold (third, 2018 Preakness), Ride On Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice (third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).
With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Standard Deviation is the best-bred colt in this herd and he was a yearling (Hip 1630) we profiled at the 2017 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
DREAM MAKER (5-1) comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Mark Casse including a fifth-place finish in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

DREAM MAKER three wide and in pursuit from near the rear, strode greenly along displaying high action at times facing kickback, tucked to the two path into the turn before getting out three then four wide near the three eighths and came under coaxing at that station, swung four to five wide for home and offered no response.

In just his second start, Dream Maker showed his immaturity but finished a respectable fifth 4¾ lengths off the mark.
Tapit, the sire of Dream Maker, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Dream Maker is the second-best bred colt in this herd and he has the breeding to be competitive. However, to earn graded stakes honors, he’ll need to improve his game.
The stretch out in distance and a recent bullet work out could have Dream Maker ready to run a good race.
SOMBEYAY (5-1) comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a fourth-place finish in the Hopeful Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SOMBEYAY lightly coaxed along chasing two to three wide from mid pack, got set down three wide at the quarter pole, shied out under a near sided stick nearing the eighth pole and kept on to secure the last major share.

Somebeyay was never really a threat but he finished a respectable fourth just 3½ lengths shy of victory.
Into Mischief, the sire of Sombeyay, was a precocious colt and multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-3-0 record in six starts with $597,080 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Into Mischief easily won his maiden debut by 2½ lengths at Santa Anita Park on October 21, 2007. He went on to finish second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and followed that with a win in the 8½-furlong CashCall Futurity (G1). His finish time of 1:40.82 was just a few ticks off of the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.
In his debut as a three-year-old in February 2008, Into Mischief finished second to Georgie Boy in the San Vicente Stakes (G2). He came out of that race with an injury to his right-hind foot and he was taken off the Triple Crown Trail.
After an extended break, Into Mischief returned to racing in October winning the Damascus Stakes by two lengths. In December, Into Mischief finished his racing season with a second-place finish in the Malibu Stakes (G1).
Into Mischief’s best runners on the Kentucky Derby Trail have been Audible, Goldencents, Practical Joke, Vyjack and Vicar’s in Trouble. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby and finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Practical Joke finished second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Derby. Vyjack finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and 18th in the Derby. Vicar’s in Trouble won the Louisiana Derby and finished 19th in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Harlan’s Holiday, the grandsire of Audible, won the Florida Derby (G1), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Sombeyay has a low E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, but his Behavior Index could potentially make him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to the pair trained by Dale Romans, Moonster (10-1) and Mr. Ankeny (12-1).


*****

A total of 35 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby. In addition, there are seven races on the European road to the Kentucky Derby and there three races on the Japan road to Derby glory.


2018/2019 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. Cairo Cat, 10, Ken McPeek
2. Game Winner, 10, Bob Baffert
3. Tight Ten, 4, Steve Asmussen
4. Gunmetal Gray, 4, Jerry Hollendorfer
5. Pole Sitter, 2, Brad Cox
6. Rowayton, 2, Jerry Hollendorfer
7. Tobacco Road, 1, Steve Asmussen
8. Jefe, 1, Keith Desormeaux

EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. Mohawk (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien
2. Japan, 10, Aidan O’Brien
3. Sydney Opera House (GB), 4, Aidan O’Brien
4. Mount Everest (IRE), 4, Aiden O’Brien
5. Cape of Good Hope (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien
6. Power of Now (IRE), 2, M. O’Callaghan
7. Sovereign (IRE), 1, Aiden O’Brien
8. Victory Command, (IRE), 1, Mark Johnston

No comments:

Post a Comment