Florida Derby Stakes Racing Roundup

©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This weekend, we’ll log a lot of miles on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. On Friday the last race on the European road to Derby glory continues on the all-weather surface in the 32Red Burradon Stakes at Newcastle Racecourse at High Gosforth Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England.

Saturday, the road takes us first to Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, the “City of Gold” in the United Arab Emirates and finally we’ll travel to Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.

At Gulfstream Park, AUDIBLE heads a herd of nine young Thoroughbreds as the 9-5 morning line favorite in 67^th running of the $1.1 million, Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1). The NBC Sports Network (NBCSN) will broadcast live television coverage at 6 p.m. ET. Post time is 6:30 ET.
       Trained by Todd Pletcher, Audible finished third in his maiden debut at Belmont Park last September. Since then, he’s posted three straight wins by a combined 17 lengths, including an impressive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

AUDIBLE bumped with rival at the start, raced three wide up close in the first turn, stalked three to four wide through the backstretch, edged up and poked head in front at the three eighths pole while taking on outside challenge from FREE DROP BILLY, shook off rival entering the lane, moved away to commanding lead, urged right handed twice in final furlong, remained sharp and finished going away.

In his stakes debut Audible pulled away in the stretch to win with authority by an impressive 5½ lengths.

Into Mischief, the sire of Audible, was a precocious colt and multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-3-0 record in six starts with $597,080 in career earnings.

As a two-year-old, Into Mischief easily won his maiden debut by 2½ lengths at Santa Anita Park on October 21, 2007. He went on to finish second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and followed that with a win in the 8½-furlong CashCall Futurity (G1). His finish time of 1:40.82 was just a few ticks off of the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.

In his debut as a three-year-old in February 2008, Into Mischief finished second in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and after an extended break, he returned to racing in October winning the Damascus Stakes by two lengths. In December, Into Mischief finished his racing season with a second-place finish in the Malibu Stakes (G1).

On the Kentucky Derby Trail, his best runners have been Goldencents, Practical Joke, Vyjack and Vicar’s in Trouble. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby and finished 17^th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Practical Joke finished second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Derby. Vyjack finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and 18^th in the Derby. Vicar’s in Trouble won the Louisiana Derby and finished 19^th in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Harlan’s Holiday, the grandsire of Audible, won the Florida Derby (G1), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Audible has a low G Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index potentially makes him competitive in this race.
       A long shot I like is MISSISSIPPI (12-1) who is stepping up in class and he comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Mark Casse including a second-place finish in an Allowance Optional Claiming race last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MISSISSIPPI was put to a full drive by the five sixteenths pole, came two wide into the lane as the lone challenger, made little headway through mid-stretch, then kept on with good determination closing outside storm runner at the finish.

Mississippi ran in fourth-place on the backstretch tracking the leaders to the far turn when he made his move and finished a neck shy of victory behind Storm Runner (20-1), who is also entered in the Florida Derby (G1).

Pioneerof the Nile, the sire of Mississippi, was a pretty good middle-distance runner and multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 2-0-1 record as a two-year-old including a win in the CashCall Futurity (G1) and a third-place finish in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (G1).

As a three-year-old, Pioneerof the Nile was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), San Felipe Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) in route to a second-place finish in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1).

As a stallion, his best runners to date on the Kentucky Derby Trail include Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Classic Empire and Cairo Prince.

Mississippi, a dark bay or brown colt by Pioneerof the Nile out of Katz Me If You Can by Storm Cat, was a yearling (Hip 888) we profiled at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, and, he’s one of the best-bred colts in this herd.

 It remains to be seen if Mississippi can step up in class to earn graded stakes honors. However, he has the breeding to be competitive and I look for him to run a good race.

CATHOLIC BOY (7-2) comes into this race with a 3-1-0 record in five starts for trainer Jonathan Thomas including a win in the With Anticipation Stakes (G3), a fourth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), a win in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and a second-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

CATHOLIC BOY unhurried early, made a three-wide run into the stretch, headed winner a furlong out but was out-finished to the wire in a good effort.

In his debut as a three-year-old, Catholic Boy looked good in his gritty duel with Flameaway in the stretch drive to finish a respectable second, just one-half length shy of victory.

More Than Ready, the sire of Catholic Boy, was a multiple graded-stakes winner that compiled a 7-4-1 record in 17 starts with $1,026,229 in earnings. He won the WHAS-11 Stakes, Flash Stakes, Tremont Stakes (G3), Sanford Stakes (G2), Hutcheson Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) in route to a fourth-place finish in the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1).

At stud, More Than Ready made quite a mark with in Australia with his sons Phelan Ready and Sebring who were champion 2-year-colts with over $2 million in career earnings. Some of his best runners in America have been the turf-sprinter Regally Ready with over $1 million in career earnings and Pluck, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2) and Summer Stakes (G3) with $727,290 in career earnings, and Verrazano.

Catholic Boy has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and he has room to improve in his second start of the season.

PROMISES FULFILLED (3-1) comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in four starts for trainer Dale Romans including a win in the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

PROMISES FULFILLED broke sharp and sped to lead at the start, cleared on top and angled inside, set the pace saving ground while firmly rated in early stages then settled nicely and continued leading the way, was confidently handled still unasked with rivals edging closer with three furlongs left to run, tapped past the quarter pole then put to drive two wide turning for home, responded and fought off STRIKE POWER in final furlong then found more in reserve and kicked clear.

Promises Fulfilled led from gate to wire to earn his first graded stakes win by 2¼ lengths.

Shackleford, the sire of Promises Fulfilled, was a multiple graded-stakes winner and Classic Champion Thoroughbred that compiled a 6-5-1 record in 20 starts with $3,090,101 in career earnings.

Shackleford made two starts as a two-year-old and in his second start he won a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs.

As a three-year-old, Shackleford won his debut race and went on to finish fifth in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). He recovered from that race and finished second in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

His best race as a three year old was in the Preakness Stakes (G1) where he defeated Animal Kingdom by half of a length. Shackleford’s next best was a second-place finish in the Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1), Indiana Derby (G2) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

As a four-year-old, Shackleford won the Churchill Downs Stakes (G2), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Clark Handicap (G1). He finished second in the Kelso Handicap (G2) and third in the Carter Handicap (G1).
       Promises Fulfilled has a E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index potentially makes him competitive.

Honorable mention goes to Hofburg (20-1) and Strike Power (4-1). Hofburg has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the best-bred colt in this herd.

Whether he can step up off a maiden win to earn graded stakes honors remains to be seen. However, Hofburg has the breeding to be competitive and if he lives up to his breeding, he could be a factor in the exotics.

*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.

In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).

2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000

2. Bolt d’Oro, 64, Mick Ruis, $780,000

3. Enticed, 63, Kiaran McLaughlin, $360,880

4. Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913

5. Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480

6. Magnum Moon, 50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000

7. Runaway Ghost, 50, $520,310

8. Quip, 50, Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000

9. Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347

10. McKinzie, 40, Bob Baffert, $320,000

11. +Good Magic, 34, Chad Brown, $1,200,000

12. +Solomini, 34, Bob Baffert, $616,000

13. My Boy Jack, 32, Keith Desormeaux, $502,000

14. Flameaway, 30, Mark Casse, $472,260

15. Firenze Fire, 29, Jason Servis, $582,500

16. +Free Drop Billy, 24, Dale Romans, $497,200

17. Snapper Sinclair, 22, Steve Asmussen, $321,810

18. Combatant, 22, Steve Asmussen, $300,000

19. *Blended Citizen, 22, Doug O’Neill, $129,644

20. Strike Power, 20, Mark Hennig, $199,560

+ = Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. *Blended Citizen is not nominated for the Triple Crown.

EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $747,307

2. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017

3. *GRONKOWSKI, 20, Jeremy Noseda, $0

4. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807

5. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648

6. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076

7. Court House (IRE), 8, John Gosden, $0

8. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630

9. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505

10. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826

11. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074

12. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4, Andrew Balding, $1,800

13. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264

14. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981

15. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634

16. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904

17. f-Blackgold Fairy, 2, Michael Halford, $4,618

18. Ventura Knight (IRE), 2, Mark Johnston, $0

19. Verbal Dexterity (IRE), 1, Jim Bolger, $280,269

20. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605

21. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610

22. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182

          *Mendelssohn, Gronkowski, Threeandfourpence and Seahenge are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.

JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo Takahashi, $291,287

2. *RUGGERO (JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861

3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori Makiura, $299,689

4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935

5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $436,916

6. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696

7. Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586

8. Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981

9. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796

10. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920

11. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes.