©2016 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, with three marquee races on tap, the Road to the Kentucky Derby enters the stretch drive
taking us to Kentucky, New York and California where winners of those races
will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting
gate on the first Saturday in May.
At
Santa Anita Park in California, Mor
Spirit has
been tagged the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the 80th running of the
$1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1). Post Time is 6 p.m. ET. Television coverage
of the race will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network from
5-7 p.m. ET.
Compared
to the small fields in the previous California prep races, the Derby field has
grown to 10 entrants, but it’s difficult to imagine any of the new runners
being much of a factor.
Hall
of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert trains Mor Spirit and he’s had good fortune in this
race, previously winning it a record seven times with Dortmund (2015), Midnight Interlude
(2011), Pioneerof the Nile (2009), Point
Given (2001), General Challenge
(1999), Indian Charlie
(1998) and Cavonnier (1996).
Whether Mor
Spirit can bring Baffert more good fortune remains to be seen. He comes into
this race with a 3-3-0 record in six starts, including a win in the Robert B.
Lewis Stakes (G3) and a second-place in the San Felipe Stakes (G2). Here’s the video
and chart
call of his last race:
MOR SPIRIT pulled his
way along a bit off the rail and steadied off heels on the first turn, chased
just off the inside then angled to the fence into the stretch, came out under
left handed urging past mid-stretch and out-finished a rival for the place.
Mor
Spirit only lost by two lengths. But he made a nice move from fifth-place to
get up for second and with a few more strides, probably would have closed the
gap to score the win.
With
a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, Mor
Spirit is one of the better-bred horses in this herd. But, he’s yet to show the
same “spirit” on the racetrack as that of his sire, Eskendereya, who has an A profile rating.
Eskendereya
was a competitive colt and my favorite on the 2010 Kentucky Derby
Trail until he was sidelined with an injury. During his career, Eskendereya
compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts which culminated in a 9¾ length romp in
the 2010 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).
Other
key stakes wins include a runaway win by 8½ lengths in the Fasig-Tipton
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and an impressive 7¼ length victory Pilgrim
Stakes.
Hall of Fame
Jockey Gary Stevens has ridden Mor Spirit in five of his previous six starts
and he returns to the irons. A recent bullet work out could have Mor Spirit
ready to run a good race and score a win leading up to the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Danzing Candy, winner of
the San Felipe Stakes (G2), has been tabbed as the 9-5 morning-line second
choice and he comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in four starts for
trainer Clifford Sise. Here’s the chart
call of his last race:
DANZING CANDY had speed
outside a rival then inched away on the first turn, set the pace a bit off the
rail then inside on the second turn, continued along the fence in the stretch
and held on gamely under left handed urging.
Danzing
Candy is a fast colt and he showed his speed in this race, leading from start
to finish.
Like
many horses on this year’s trail, Danzing Candy has a low Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® score. However, his Behavior Index makes him competitive,
and, sometimes, horses with a low profile score can win races that are shorter
than the classic 10 furlong distance.
Twirling Candy, the sire
of Danzing Candy, was a multiple graded stakes winner that was competitive in
sprint and route races up to nine furlongs. During his racing career, he compiled
a 7-1-1 record in 11 starts with $944,900 in career earnings.
On
November 29, 2009, Twirling Candy won his first and only start as a two year
old in a seven furlong sprint at Hollywood Park. As a three year old, he returned
to racing in May and during that year he compiled a 4-0-0 record in five starts
including wins in the Oceanside Stakes, Del Mar Derby (G2) and Malibu Stakes
(G1).
At
the age of four, Twirling Candy was 2-1-1 in five starts including wins in the
Strub Stakes (G2) and Californian Stakes (G2).
Jockey
Mike Smith has ridden Danzing Candy in three of his four starts and he returns
to the irons.
A recent
bullet work out could have Danzing Candy ready to run a good race, and it
remains to be seen if he can carry his speed to nine furlongs to score a win in
the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Exaggerator (4-1) is the morning-line
third choice and he comes into this race for trainer Kent Desormeaux with a 3-2-1
record in eight starts including a third-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes
(G2). Here’s the chart
call of that race:
EXAGGERATOR forced out some at
the start, angled in and saved ground off the pace, moved up inside on the
second turn, came out and bumped a rival
nearing the quarter pole, angled out into the stretch, loomed behind the winner
in mid-stretch, drifted in late and was edged for second.
In
eight starts, Exaggerator has only been out of the money twice and if he runs
to his previous form he should be competitive in this race.
Curlin, the sire of Exaggerator, was an outstanding
racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800
in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1) and third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin
won the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
Regular
jockey Kent Desormeaux returns to the irons and I look for them to run a good
race.
Honorable
mention goes to Denman’s
Call (15-1) and Dressed
in Hermes (15-1) who could, perhaps, be a factor in the exotics.
*****
The
winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) will receive 100 points, second-place
finishers will receive 40 points, third-place finishers will get 20 points and
fourth-place finishers will get 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top
twenty Derby qualifiers:
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Gun Runner,
51, Steve Asmussen, $849,200
2. Nyquist, 130,
Doug O’Neill, $2,289,000
3. Lani, 100, Mikio Matsunaga,
$1,300,119
4. Mohaymen, 80, Kiaran
McLaughlin, $807,850
5. Destin, 51,
Todd Pletcher, $338,000
6. Cupid, 50, Bob
Baffert, $540,000
*. Oscar
Nominated, 50, Mike Maker, $321,360
7. Danzing Candy,
50, Cliff Sise, Jr., $240,000
8. Shagaf, 50,
Chad Brown, $240,000
9. Mor Spirit,
44, Bob Baffert, $416,800
10. Tom’s Ready,
44, Dallas Stewart, $270,670
**. f-Polar
River, 40, Doug Watson, $700,000
11. Majesto, 40,
Gustavo Delgado, $190,000
12. Mo Tom, 32,
Tom Amoss $328,326
13. Fellowship,
32, Stanley Gold, $210,590
14. Exaggerator,
26, Keith Desormeaux, $1,028,000
15. Whitmore, 24,
Ron Moquett, $300,000
16. Laoban, 22,
Eric Guillot, $92,000
17. Azar, 20,
Todd Pletcher, $273,800
18. Forevamo, 20,
All Stall, Jr., $210,000
19. Dazzling Gem,
20, Brad Cox, $100,000
20. Zulu, 20,
Todd Pletcher, $79,200
*Will be
supplemented to Derby. **Not nominated to Derby
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