©2015 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
“Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Bluegrass
State Saturday where Brody’s Cause has been tabbed as the lukewarm
7-2 morning line favorite in the 32nd running of the $2 million
Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Racecourse. Post
time is 4:30 p.m. ET.
Favored
status for Brody’s Cause is new territory for trainer Dale Romans who’s
previously sent the double-digit, long shots Medal Count (26.90-1, 2013), Dullahan
(17.70-1, 2011) and Dawn of War (32.50-1, 2005) to the Juvenile starting gate.
However,
this year Romans has a legitimate favorite.
With
an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, Brody’s
Cause is the best-bred colt in this herd and he comes into this race with a
2-0-0 record in three starts, including a one-length win in the Breeders’
Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on October 3. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
BRODY'S CAUSE was unhurried early
along the four path, swung into the six path in the far turn, kicked on and
rallied entering the lane, drove past the leader and cleared the field in the
final stages.
Keeneland
track announcer Kurt Becker called the run of Brody’s Cause “a tremendous run
from deep in the pack to pull the upset” and, indeed, it was exciting to watch
him charge down the lane to get the win.
Brody’s
Cause is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd and descendants of that herd have
won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile five times (See stats below).
Giant’s Causeway, the sire of
Brody’s Cause, was
undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old (all at 7-furlongs) – winning the
Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes.
As
a three year old, Giant’s Causeway raced 10 times and won five Group One races
including the Irish Champion Stakes, International Stakes, Sussex Stakes, St.
James’s Palace Stakes, Eclipse Stakes and he won the Group 3 Gladness Stakes.
He also finished second in four races: Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, 2,000 Guineas
Stakes, Irish 2,000 Guineas and he finished second by a narrow neck to Tiznow
in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Overall,
Giant’s Causeway compiled a 9-4-0 record in 13 starts,
winning from 7- to 10-furlongs, and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards
European Horse of the Year.
Brody’s
Cause has the breeding it takes to be competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
He’s been training well at Churchill Downs and I look for him to run a good
race.
Greenpointcrusader (4-1) is a full brother to Algorithms
and he was a young colt I
wrote about in my 2012
Kentucky Derby Outlook.
Greenpointcrusader comes into the Juvenile for trainer Dominick Schettino with
a 2-1-0 record in three starts, including a 4½-length victory in the one-mile
Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park on October 3. Here’s the video and chart call of the race:
GREENPOINTCRUSADER was bumped
from both sides and steadied after being released from the gate, raced from off
the inside, got let out approaching the end of the backstretch, gradually
worked his way further and further off the inside during the run around the
bend, continued to be maneuvered to the outside after stepping foot into the
stretch, began the final furlong about seven wide, closed in, wrested away the
advantage with a sixteenth to go and kicked away to win by a comfortable margin.
Greenpointcrusader,
with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, is a sire-line descendant of
the Bold Ruler, Nasrullah Ancestral Herd and descendants
of that herd have won the Juvenile a total eight times (See stats below).
Bernardini, the sire of Greenpointcrusader,
did not race as a 2-year-old but at the age of three, he was a fast colt that
won races from a mile to 10-furlongs.
He
broke his maiden on his second start running a mile at Gulfstream Park in
1:35.57. That’s the kind of time I like to see a young colt run in a mile.
Bernardini went on to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred, compiling a 6-1-0
record in eight starts with $3,060,480 in career earnings.
Notable
races won by Bernardini in route to becoming the 2006 Eclipse Champion
Three-Year-Old Male include: Withers Stakes (G3, 8-furlongs), Preakness Stakes
(G1, 9½-furlongs), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2, 8½ furlongs), Travers Stakes (G1, 10
furlongs), Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs) and he finished
second, a length behind Invasor, winner of the 2006 Breeders’
Cup Classic (G1, 10 furlongs).
Jockey
Joe Bravo, who rode Greenpointcrusader to victory in the Champagne, returns to
the irons and a bullet work out at Keeneland on October 23 should have him
ready to run another good race.
Last
year’s Juvenile winning team of trainer Keith Desormeaux and jockey Kent
Desormeaux, who rode Texas Red to victory in the 2014
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), return this year with Exaggerator (6-1) who’s compiled 2-1-0
record in four starts, including a second-place finish to Brody’s Cause in the
Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on October 3. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
EXAGGERATOR was well placed
early, made a bid nearing the quarter pole, split horses entering the lane, took
over command and drew clear in the stretch but yielded late in the drive.
Exaggerator
has the breeding to be competitive in this race but I’m not too keen on him for
the win. With a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Exaggerator is a
sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and that herd has won a record
nine juveniles (See stats below).
Curlin, the sire of Exaggerator, was an outstanding
racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800
in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the
Belmont Stakes (G1) and third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin
won the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
Desormeaux,
who rode Exaggerator in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), returns to the irons and a
bullet work out at Keeneland on October 24 could have him ready to run a good
race.
Tale of S’vall, at 30-1 morning line odds, is a long shot I like
in this race. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s yet to
live up to his breeding and he comes into this race for trainer Barclay Tagg
with a 1-0-0 record in two starts, including a fifth-place finish in the
Champagne Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of the race:
TALE OF S'AVALL gained a slight
advantage after the start, was pulling on the bit while being guided over to
the inside, cut the pace, kept at a slight distance from off the rail, and
facing pressure from two others, parked out in paths two and three
respectively, came under assault from the second place finisher as three-quarters
was being reached, yielded soon afterwards and steadily backed away.
Tale
of S’avall is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. He has
the breeding to be competitive in this race but he will need to return to his
winning form when he broke his maiden at Saratoga Race Course on August 29.
Tale of Ekati, the sire of Tale of S’avall, was a versatile
runner that won the one mile Jerome Handicap (G2) and the Cigar Mile Handicap
(G1). He also won the 9-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a
fourth-place finish in the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
Another
long shot I like in this race is Isotherm (20-1). He comes into the
Juvenile for trainer George Weaver with a 2-0-0 record in three starts,
including a win by a neck in the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park on
September 26. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
ISOTHERM was primarily two wide
making his way to the end of the backstretch, got guided into the three path by
the start of the run around the far turn, perked up when given his cue heading
for the top of the lane, fanned out wider and wider in a search for a usable
lane to take to the wire, eventually winding up in the seven path deep into the
furlong grounds, kicked into his best stride after completing the maneuver, got
hooked up in a three-way tussle in the late stages, forged to the front with
about three to four jumps to spare and stayed there in game fashion.
Isotherm
trailed eight lengths off of the leaders going into the far turn and he made a
tremendous move to get into competition going down the lane to win by a neck.
He’s
a sire-line descendant of the Royal Charger Ancestral Herd and three descendants from that
herd have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (See stats below).
With
an E Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Isotherm has a low score. However,
when you factor in data mining analysis, he has the potential to be very
competitive in this race. Data mining uses the processing power of modern
technology to unlock secrets in the pedigree and quantify the influence of the
Ancestral Herd.
Lonhro, the sire of Isotherm, was a
champion racehorse in Australia that compiled a 26-3-2 record in 35 starts with
$5,790,510 (AUS) in earnings.
Some
more notable races won by Lonhro include 11 Group One races: the Australian Cup
(2004), C F Orr Stakes (2004) George Ryder Stakes (2003, 2004), Caulfield
Stakes (2002, 2003), George Main Stakes (2003), Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2003),
Chipping Norton Stakes (2003), LKS MacKinnon Stakes (2002) and the Caulfield
Guineas (2001).
Lonhro
was selected as the 2002 Australian Champion, the 2004 Australian Middle
Distance Champion, Australian Racehorse of the Year and World Champion Miler.
In addition, Lonhro led the 2011 Australian Leading Sire List and in 2014 he
was inducted in the Australian Racing Hall of Fame.
Whether
Isotherm lives up to his potential remains to be seen. However, if he repeats
the form of his last two races, Isotherm should be competitive in the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile (G1).
*****
Since
1984, sire-line descendants of the Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer and Bold
Ruler, Nasrullah Ancestral Herds have won the
most Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Races.
Sire-line
descendants of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd have won nine Juveniles: Tasso (1985), Rhythm (1989), Timber Country (1994), Unbridled’s Song (1995), Anees (1999), Street
Sense (2006), Midshipman (2008), New Year’s Day (2013) and Texas
Red (2014).
Descendants of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd in this year’s race include: Exaggerator,
Swipe
(15-1), Unbridled Outlaw (15-1) and Ralis (12-1).
Sire-line
descendants of the Bold Ruler, Nasrullah Ancestral Herd have won eight races: Capote (1986), Is
It True
(1988), Arazi (1991), Boston Harbor (1996), Vindication (2002), War
Pass (2007), Uncle
Mo (2010) and Hansen (2011). Competitors in this
year’s Juvenile who are descendants of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd include:
Greenpointcrusader and Conquest Big E (30-1). Nyquist (9-2) is a descendant of the
Nasrullah Ancestral Herd.
Sire-line
descendants of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd have won five Juveniles: Chief’s
Crown (1984), Johannesburg (2001), Wilko (2004), Vale of York (2009) and Shanghai Bobby (2012). Competitors in this year’s Juvenile who
are descendents of Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd include: Brody’s Cause, Tale
of S’vall, Waterloo Bridge (30-1) and Rated R Superstar (15-1).
Isotherm
is a sire-line descendant of Royal Charger Ancestral Herd. That line has produced three
Juvenile winners: Brocco (1993), Answer Lively (1998) and Action This Day (2003).
Cocked and Loaded (12-1), is a sire-line
descendant of the Man O War Ancestral Herd and no
descendants of that herd have won the Juvenile.
Riker (15-1) is a sire-line
descendant of the Broad Brush Ancestral Herd and no
descendants of that herd have won the Juvenile.
*****
This
year, the top four finishers in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) will receive
double points under the Leaderboard points system implemented by
Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility. The winner will receive
20 points while the second-place finisher will receive 8 points, the
third-place finisher will receive 4 points and 2 points will be awarded to the
fourth-place finisher. Here’s a look at the current leaders.
2015/2016 KENTUCKY DERBY
LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Nyquist, 10,
Doug O’Neill, $480,000
2.
Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
2. Brody’s Cause,
10, Dale Romans, $300,000
4. Cocked and
Loaded, 10. Larry Rivelli, $220,840
5. Riker, 10,
Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
6. R Rated
Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $78,200
7. Swipe, 4,
Keith Desormeaux, $237,130
8. Exaggerator,
4, Keith Desormeaux, $220,000
9. Sunny Ridge,
4, Jason Servis, $175,600
10. Kasseopia, 4,
Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
11. Hollywood
Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,000
12. Portfolio
Manager, 2, Chad Brown, $50,000
13. Tizarunner,
2, Mark Casse, $44,903
14. Unbridled
Outlaw, 2, Dale Romans, $14,100
15. Van Damme, 1,
Robert Gorham, $31,290
16.
Stickstatelydude, 1, Greg Burchell, $25,000
16. Sail Ahoy, 1,
Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $25,000
18. Rare Candy, 1,
David Hofmans, $24,000
19. Conquest
Windycity, 1, Mark Casse, $7,050
