Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: March 2015

Friday, March 27, 2015

Louisiana Derby Racing Roundup

This Saturday, we’ll log a lot of miles on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will take us to Florida, Louisiana and the nation of the United Arab Emirates where the winners of those three races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

At the Fair Grounds Race Course in Louisiana, International Star will go to the starting gate as the 3-1 morning line favorite in the 102^nd running of the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2). Post time is 6:24 p.m. ET.

International Star comes into this race for trainer Michael Maker with a 4-2-0 record in eight starts. He’s already faced several horses in this field and he’s a proven competitor at the Fair Grounds winning both the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Start Stakes (G2) earlier this season.

I look for International star to be competitive in this race and I’ll be watching closely to see how well he handles the stretch out to nine furlongs.

A mild long shot I like in this race is Keen Ice (5-1) who’s compiled a 1-0-2 in six starts for trainer Dale Romans. In this herd, Keen Ice has the best pedigree but he’s yet to live up to his full potential.

However, his third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), last out, could be a signal that Keen Ice is getting good at the right time of year and he could be ready to make another big move forward.

For most of the stretch in the Risen Star, Keen Ice ran behind a wall of horses. But, when he found running room, he was able to get up for third, just 2¾-lengths behind the winner, International Star.

I look for Keen Ice to be competitive in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and, if jockey James Graham can ride him free and clear, perhaps he could pull off an upset at a nice price.

Stanford (5-1) is a new horse in this herd and he also has the breeding to be competitive. He comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 2-0-0 record in four starts. However, in his last race he finished second to stablemate Materiality in the Islamorada Handicap but was disqualified and placed sixth.

This race will be the second start for Stanford at nine furlongs and he has room to improve in his third start of the season as a three year old. A recent bullet work out could have him ready and I look for him to run a good race.

War Story (4-1) has never finished worse than second in four starts and he comes into this race for trainer Tom Amoss off of two back-to-back second place finishes to International Star in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2).

War is always competitive and I look for him to run a good race. A recent bullet work could have him ready to run a career best race.

Mr. Z (4-1) is another new horse in this herd. He comes into this race with a 1-4-3 record in 10 starts for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and he picks up veteran jockey Kent Desormeaux who rode War Story in the Risen Star.

Mr. Z should be competitive, but I don’t look for him to win.

I could not find any specific mention of television coverage for the Louisiana Derby (G2) but it most likely it will be during the TVG broadcast of the Florida Derby from 6:30-7:30 p.m. ET. It also may be on the NBC Sports Network from 6-7 p.m. ET.

*****

This weekend with the running of the Florida Derby (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), the winner of these races will receive 100 points, second-place finishers will receive 40 points, third-place finishers will get 20 points and fourth-place finishers will get 10 points.

Calculator, ranked 5^th in the January 24 Kentucky Derby point standings, is sidelined with an injury for six months and he’s off the Derby trail. Leave the Light On, ranked 13^th, is also off the trail. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red had returned to training but was recently taken off of the Derby Trail due to a lingering issue with a foot abscess.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

2. International Star, 71, Mike Maker, $490,979

3. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

4. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

5. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

6. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

7. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

8. Itsaknockout, 50, Todd Pletcher, $240,500

9. Upstart, 36, Rick Violette Jr., $615,680

10. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

11. War Story, 24, Tom Amoss, $120,000

12. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

13. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

14. Ami’s Flatter, 20, Josie Carroll, $99,200

15. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

16. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

17. Bold Conquest, 17, Steve Asmussen, $162,176

18. Mr. Z, 14, D. Wayne Lukas, $518,326

19. Frosted, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $176,200

20. Classy Class, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $85,000

* Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

UAE Derby Racing Roundup

This Saturday, we’ll log a lot of miles on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will take us to Florida, Louisiana and the nation of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where the winners of those three races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

At Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, UAE, a field of 10 young Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 15^th running of the $2 million UAE Derby (G2), and South African trainer Michael de Kock will send Mubtaahij, winner of the 9½ furlong Al Bastakiya, to the starting gate as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

In six starts, Mubtaahij has compiled 3-1-0 record and in the Al Bastakiya he was a 2½-length victor, defeating the Uruguayan Triple Crown Champion, Sir Fever (3-1), who is also entered in this race. Here’s the video of the Al Bastakiya.

Mubtaahij tracked the leaders, Ajwad and Sir Fever, for most of the race, until taking over in the stretch to head Sir Fever and get up for the win. At one point in the stretch, it looked like Sir Fever may have been impeded by Mubtaahij, but it was impossible to tell if that deprived him of the win.

I look for Mubtaahij to run another good race in the UAE Derby (G2).

Sir Fever will be making just his second start this year and he also appears tough in this race. Going into the Al Bastakiya, Sir Fever had not raced in four months and, despite the layoff, he ran a very good race.

Prior to his defeat, Sir Fever was undefeated in nine starts including a nine-length blowout in the one mile Gran Premio Polla De Potrillos (G1), the first jewel in the Uruguay Triple Crown, in the blistering fast time 1:34.20. Here’s the video of that race.

He followed that victory with a four-length win in the 10-furlong Gran Premio Jockey Club (G1), capturing the second jewel in a time of 2:02.82. Here’s the video of that race.

Last November, Sir Fever won the final jewel with a 5½-length victory in the 12½ furlong Gran Premio Nacional (G1). Here’s the video of that race.

Sir Fever has room to improve in just his second start of the season and I look for him to run a good race.

A long shot I like is Alnajem Alfaiz (20-1) who comes into this race for trainer Al Shaibani Bader with a 3-0-1 record in four stakes races, including a three-length win in the National Guard Cup (G3) and a four-length win in the King Abdulaziz Cup (G1).

All of his previous races have been at a mile and two of them were run in the time zone of 1:36 and change which is what I like to see in a young three year old. If he can carry that speed over a further route of ground, I look for Alnajem Alfaiz to be competitive.

Maftool (9-2) comes into this race with a 3-2-1 record in seven starts for trainer Saeed bin Soor including wins in the group three Al Tayer Motors UAE 2000 Guineas and the Tattersalls Sommerville Stakes. In the Guineas, Maftool barely defeated Mubtaahij by a head. Here’s the video of that race.

I don’t look for Maftool to win this race, but he could be a factor in the exotics.

Post time of the UAE Derby is 9:55 a.m. ET and you can watch the race at Dubai Racing online here. Television coverage of the Derby can be seen Saturday on TVG from 8:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. ET and on Fox Sports1 at 12:30 p.m. ET.

*****

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

2. International Star, 71, Mike Maker, $490,979

3. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

4. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

5. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

6. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

7. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

8. Itsaknockout, 50, Todd Pletcher, $240,500

9. Upstart, 36, Rick Violette Jr., $615,680

10. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

11. War Story, 24, Tom Amoss, $120,000

12. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

13. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

14. Ami’s Flatter, 20, Josie Carroll, $99,200

15. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

16. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

17. Bold Conquest, 17, Steve Asmussen, $162,176

18. Mr. Z, 14, D. Wayne Lukas, $518,326

19. Frosted, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $176,200

20. Classy Class, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $85,000

* Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.

Florida Derby Stakes Racing Roundup

At Gulfstream Park in Florida, Upstart, ranked 9^th in Kentucky Derby point standings, has been tabbed as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 68^th running of the $1 million Besilu Stables Florida Derby (G1). Post time is 6:48 p.m. ET.

In six starts, Upstart has never been out of the money and he comes into this race with a 3-2-1 record for trainer Rick Violette. However, despite Upstart’s record, his last start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), where he was disqualified from the win and placed second, was a strangely run race.

The final time of 1:46.28 was the slowest ever posted for that race when run at the distance of 8½-furlongs. Daily Racing Form turf writer Jay Privman attributed the slow time to a “dry and tiring” track. And when you look at the fractional splits the race was slow at the beginning and end but internal fractions show the race was run in decent time.

Nevertheless, I look for Upstart to be competitive Saturday. However, if he’s going to secure the win he’ll need to return to his racing form in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) which he won by 5½ lengths in the time of 1:43.61.

Materiality (7-2) did not race as a two year old and he comes into this race undefeated in two starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. In his last start, the lightly-raced Materiality looked professional storming to the lead in the stretch of the Islamorada Handicap to win by an impressive 5¾ lengths.

The time of 1:49.32 for the nine furlongs is decent and a repeat of that form will make him competitive in the Florida Derby (G1).

Itsaknockout (2-1), ranked 8^th in point standings, is another lightly-raced colt, trained by Pletcher, and he comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in three starts. In his last race, Itsaknockout was a 2¾-length runner up to Upstart in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). But, in what some consider a controversial call by the stewards, Itsaknockout was moved up to first place when Upstart was disqualified and placed second.

In his second start, Itsaknockout showed good speed winning his debut as a three year old, running a mile at Gulfstream Park, in the time of 1:35.04. That’s what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail and return to that form will make Itsaknockout competitive in the Florida Derby (G1).

Ami’s Flatter (8-1), ranked 14^th in point standings, has yet to win a stakes race and he comes into the Florida Derby (G1) with 1-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Josie Carroll.

In his last start, Ami’s Flatter was a five length runner-up to Carpe Diem in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He ran that race in the time zone of about 1:44 and change and he’ll need to improve on that in order win the Florida Derby (G1).

Honorable mention goes to Quimet (20-1) who has one of the best pedigrees in this race but he’s yet to live up to his breeding. He comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in five starts for trainer Nick Zito and he’s yet to win a stakes race.

Television coverage of the Florida Derby (G1) can be seen on the NBC Sports Network from 6-7 p.m. ET. In addition, NBC Sports group has expanded this year’s allotted broadcast coverage for Kentucky Derby 141 to a record 15.5 hours which will begin on April 30 at 4 p.m. ET.

*****

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

2. International Star, 71, Mike Maker, $490,979

3. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

4. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

5. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

6. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

7. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

8. Itsaknockout, 50, Todd Pletcher, $240,500

9. Upstart, 36, Rick Violette Jr., $615,680

10. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

11. War Story, 24, Tom Amoss, $120,000

12. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

13. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

14. Ami’s Flatter, 20, Josie Carroll, $99,200

15. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

16. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

17. Bold Conquest, 17, Steve Asmussen, $162,176

18. Mr. Z, 14, D. Wayne Lukas, $518,326

19. Frosted, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $176,200

20. Classy Class, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $85,000

* Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.