©2015 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
$300,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park was originally slated to be run
on President’s Day, February 16, but because of bad weather it has been
rescheduled to be run this Sunday with a post time of 5:42 p.m., ET.
Far
Right, winner
of the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes last month, will go to the starting gate as
the 5-2 morning-line favorite in what appears to be a wide-open 50th
running of the Southwest Stakes (G3). He comes into this race with a 2-2-2
record in seven starts for trainer Ron Moquett. And, in stakes competition he’s
compiled a 1-0-2 record in four starts.
In
the Smarty Jones, it looked like Far Right would have to settle for runner up
honors to Mr. Z, who is also entered in this
race as the morning-line 3-1 second choice. However, for some reason Mr. Z, who
was on the lead in the stretch, veered to the right and that loss of ground enabled
Far Right to come up the inside along the rail and win by a 1¾-length margin.
Last
November, those two faced off in the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3)
where Mr. Z finished second, losing by a narrow nose to the very nice colt, Ocho Ocho Ocho, and Far Right finished another
four lengths back in third.
The
Delta Downs Jackpot is 8½ furlongs which is the same distance as the Southwest
and that could be a key factor in this race. Mr. Z is a proven competitor at
this distance with a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1)
and he finished third by a neck to the highly-regarded Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity
Stakes (G1).
I
look for both horses to be competitive but Mr. Z could have an edge over Far Right
going the further distance.
A
couple of long shots I like are Bold Conquest (10-1) and Phenomenal Phoenix (30-1). They both have yet to
prove themselves on the Derby Trail but they have the breeding to be a factor.
The
Southwest will be the first start for Bold Conquest as a three year old and he
comes into this race for trainer Steve Asmussen with a 1-2-1 record in four
starts, including a second-place finish in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) and a
third-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1).
Whether
Bold Conquest can step up off of a four month layoff to win his first stakes
race remains to be seen. However, he’s been training well at the Fair Grounds
and two recent back-to-back bullet works could have him ready to run a good
race.
Phenomenal
Phoenix comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in four starts for trainer
Donnie Von Hemel. He’ll need to improve his game in order to secure the win, but
his performance last out showed promise and the addition of blinkers could help
Phenomenal Phoenix be a factor in the Southwest Stakes (G3).
Honorable
mention goes to Bold
Animaux (30-1) who comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in five starts race
including a four-length victory, last out, in a claiming race at Tampa Bay
Downs. I couldn’t find any video of that race, but here’s the chart
call:
BOLD
ANIMAUX stalked the leaders, bid between rivals on the turn and drew clear
under urging.
I
have no idea of what he looks like or how he runs and it remains to be seen if
he can step up to be competitive in stakes-race company. But the time of
1:35.69 is in the time zone of what I like to see in a young colt. If he looks
good in the post parade and you think he might be able to carry his speed to 8½
furlongs, he may be worth a small wager.
*****
The
Southwest Stakes (G3) is the last race in Kentucky Derby Prep Season consisting
of 20 races worth 10 points each to the winner. The second-place finisher
received 4 points, the third-place finisher received 2 points and the
fourth-place finisher received one point.
The
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Risen Star Stakes (G2) on February 21 will
start the Kentucky Derby Championship Series consisting of 16 races and the
winner of those races will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will
receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the
fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points.
Halfway
through this series beginning with the UAE Derby (G2), Florida Derby (G1) and
Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 28, the points will increase to 100 points for
the winner, 40 points for second place, 20 points for third and 10 points for
fourth place.
Calculator, ranked 5th in the
January 24 Kentucky Derby point standings, is sidelined with an injury for six
months and he’s off the Derby trail. Leave the Light On, ranked 13th, is
also off the trail.
Texas Red is sidelined with a foot abscess
but could, perhaps, return to racing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) or Arkansas
Derby (G1).
Here’s
a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:
2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. El Kabeir, 25,
John Terranova II, $380,792
2. International
Star, 21, Mike Maker, $250,979
3. Dortmund, 20,
Bob Baffert, $390,000
4. Upstart, 16,
Rick Violette Jr., $538,080
5.
Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
6. Texas Red, 12,
Keith Desormeaux, $1,176,000
7. Mr.
Z, 12, D. Wayne Lukas, $488,326
8. Far Right, 12, Ron Moquett, $205,906
9. Ocho Ocho
Ocho, 10, Jim Cassidy, $660,000
10. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
11. Daredevil,
10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
12. Far From
Over, 10, Todd Pletcher, $150,000
13. Metaboss, 10,
Jeff Bonde, $126,000
14. Lucky Player,
10, Steve Asmussen, $97,231
15. Frosted, 8, Kiaran McLaughlin, $156,800
16. Firing
Line, 8, Simon Callaghan, $130,000
17. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $335,827
18. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
19. Rock Shandy, 6, Peter Miller, $56,000
20. Bayerd, 4, Steve Asmussen, $245,000
