©2014 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
“Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Keeneland Race
Course Saturday where, in what appears to be a wide-open race, Carpe
Diem and Hashtag Bourbon head a field of 12 young Thoroughbreds as the 4-1
morning-line co-favorites in the 101st running of the $500,000 Claiborne
Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1). Bold Conquest and Conquest Tsunami are the co-second choice at 9-2 odds. Post time
for the race is 5:08 p.m. ET.
A
win by any of those four would be no surprise. But, I’ll be looking elsewhere
for a long shot upset in the Breeder’s Futurity.
Two
long shots I like in this race are Keen
Ice (15-1) and
Firespike (12-1) who both overcame
difficulty in their last race to get up for the win.
Favored
in his last race, Keen Ice ran mostly in the middle of the herd and was in
third place at the top of the stretch, eight lengths behind the front runners, when
he made a big move in the final strides to capture the win. Here’s the chart
call and video of the race:
KEEN
ICE settled in hand, moved up between rivals through
the turn, split horses a furlong out, finished with a rush and was up in the
final jump.
That’s
the kind of performance I like to see in a young colt that is running on the
Derby Trail and, if he lives up to his breeding, he should enjoy the stretch
out in distance.
Curlin, the sire of Keen Ice, is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector
Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a nick with Deputy Minister who’s an influential descendant of the Northern
Dancer Ancestral Herd. Keen Ice, out of the Awesome Again mare, Medomak, is also bred on that same
nick.
Curlin was a
Classic Champion Thoroughbred who, for many years, was the all-time leading
money earner but is now ranked second with
$10,501,800 in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished
second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he was third in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
In addition, Curlin won the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
Another
move forward off of his maiden win will make Keen Ice competitive in the
Breeders’ Futurity.
Firespike,
also favored in his last race, was in seventh place in the stretch run and he
bulled his way through traffic to get up for the win. Here’s the chart and
video:
FIRESPIKE took up
residence in mid-pack, was rated in the two path while keeping an eye on the
front runners, swung about four wide into the stretch, altered course towards
the inside shortly afterwards, was forced to steady off another's heels at the
eighth pole, got taken in hand a sixteenth later, once more off the heels of a
rival, altered course to the outside gaining a usable racing lane, split rivals
late, finished strongly once safely through opening to win in the final stages,
crossing the wire under a brisk hand ride.
Firespike
showed a lot of grit in that race to capture his maiden win by a neck and, he
too, has the breeding to be competitive in the Breeders’ Futurity.
Flower Alley, the sire of
Firespike, was a good middle-distance runner that won Travers Stakes (G1),
Lane's End Stakes (G2) and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) as a 3-year-old. At stud,
Flower Alley sired the Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another,
and Firespike’s grandsire, Distorted Humor, sired
the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Funny Cide and the Belmont
Stakes (G1) winner, Drosselmeyer.
I
look for Firespike to be competitive in the Breeders’ Futurity.
Tough Customer (6-1) comes into this race off of an impressive 5½-length
maiden win at Churchill Downs on September 26. While it remains to be seen if
Tough Customer can step up in class, the way he won his maiden debut and his
breeding suggests that he should be competitive.
Giant’s Causeway, the sire of
Tough Customer, was
undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old (all at 7-furlongs) – winning the
Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes. As a
3-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was 6-4-0 in 10 starts, winning from 7- to
10-furlongs, and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the
Year.
Arch, the damsire of Tough
Customer, also was a good 3-year-old that won the 10-furlong Super Derby and
the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3). In addition, Arch sired Blame, winner of the 2010
Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Eclipse Champion Older Male, and he also sired
the 2006 Canadian Horse of the Year Arravale.
Finally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carpe
Diem, Bold Conquest, Conquest Tsunami, Hashtag Bourbon or Mr. Z become a factor in rounding
out the exotics.
*****
Under
the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky
Derby eligibility the winner of the Breeders’ Futurity will receive 10 points
while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher
will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.
2014/2015 KENTUCKY DERBY
LEADERBOARD
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer
1.
Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen
1. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert
2. Bold Conquest, 4, Steve Asmussen
2. Calculator, 4, Peter Miller
3. Hashtag Bourbon, 2, Kellyn Gorder
3. Texas Red, 2, Keith Desormeaux
4. Danny Boy, 1, Dale Romans
4. Lord Nelson, 1, Bob Baffert
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