©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights
reserved.
A
field of 10 Thoroughbreds has been entered to compete Saturday in the 139th
running of the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico racetrack and Kentucky Derby
140 victor, California Chrome, is the prohibitive 3-5
morning-line favorite.
California
Chrome, undefeated in his last five starts with a combined win margin of 26
lengths, looms as the horse to beat in the Preakness. He, along with Ride On Curlin (10-1) and General A Rod (15-1), are the only Derby competitors to advance
to the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
Despite
his favoritism, I think California Chrome is vulnerable in this race. In my
Kentucky Derby blog, I wrote that California
Chrome needed “to be free and clear outside of horses, up near the front or a
length off of the leaders” in order to have a chance to win, and, that is
exactly how he won the Derby. Here’s
the chart call and video:
CALIFORNIA
CHROME rated kindly three wide and just off of a
contested pace, moved between runners to challenge leaving the five sixteenths
marker, poked a head in front with a quarter to go, shook clear when roused,
increased his advantage a furlong out, kept on under right handed rousing then
held sway.
Despite
his Derby win, if California Chrome is not near or on the lead in the
Preakness, I think he will have a tough go of it (more about that later).
Let’s take at the Preakness favorite, California
Chrome, and the top four profile horses.
CALIFORNIA
CHROME (3-5) – A Chestnut colt by Lucky Pulpit out of Love the
Chase by Not For Love was foaled February 18, 2011. He comes into the Preakness
Stakes (G1) for the connections of Steven Coburn and Martin Perry with a 7-1-0
record in 11 starts.
If California Chrome runs free and clear near the
lead in the Preakness like he did in the Derby, then he will be tough to beat
as he has a good burst of closing speed and he’ll be tough to run down in the
final strides.
However, as I noted in my Derby blog, it appears that California
Chrome has behavioral issues and if he is in between horses or behind in traffic, it’s very hard for him to
overcome that and press on to victory. In the three races he lost, it was
evident that behavioral issues were a big factor in his loss.
Here’s a look at chart call and video of California
Chrome’s 7¼-length loss in the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes last June at
Betfair Hollywood Park:
CALIFORNIA
CHROME went up between horses to duel for the lead,
battled three deep between foes on the turn and into the stretch and weakened
in the final furlong.
The chart notes that California Chrome, running
between horses, weakened at the end of the race but, more likely, he didn’t
have the mental aptitude to press through to victory. After that loss, trainer
Art Sherman put blinkers on California Chrome but that did not help him
overcome the mental barrier he faced when stuck behind horses in the Del Mar
Futurity (G1) last September. Here’s the video and chart call:
CALIFORNIA
CHROME chased
between horses on the backstretch and turn, rallied between foes in deep
stretch and was in a bit tight off heels late.
California Chrome had a hole, granted a small hole,
in the final strides of the Del Mar Futurity but he could not press through the
wall of horses to win the race.
Last December, in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes
at Santa Anita Park, California Chrome raced free, and clear, of other horses along
the rail in the stretch drive but he did not have that “heart” of a champion to
press on to victory. Here’s the chart call and video:
CALIFORNIA
CHROME hopped at the start and was off slowly, chased
inside a rival on the backstretch, came around a tiring foe entering the
stretch and lacked the needed rally on the rally through the final furlong.
A good mind, the ability of a horse to focus during
the heat of a race is so important. And it appears that California Chrome has
focus, behavioral issues when stuck in the middle of a herd of horses. He’s talented and doesn’t need the
lead to win. But he has to be free and clear outside of horses, up near the front
or a length off of the leaders. If jockey Victor Espinoza can put California
Chrome in that spot then he’ll be tough to beat in the Preakness. However, if California
Chrome is stuck in the middle of the herd, he could run close to his profile
ranking or even worse.
RIDE ON CURLIN (10-1)
– A bay colt
by Curlin out of Magical Ride by Storm Cat was foaled on February 16, 2011. As
a yearling at auction, Ride On Curlin fetched a mere $25,000 from bidders at
the Keeneland September 2012 Yearling Sale. Ride On Curlin comes into the Preakness
with a 2-2-4 record in 10 starts.
I
like Calvin Borel, the jockey who rode Ride On Curlin in the Kentucky Derby. He’s
won three Kentucky Derbies and one Preakness Stakes. Borel has the will to win.
I think Ride On Curlin also has the will to win and I wish the two were paired
for their run in the Preakness. However, I can understand why Borel lost the
mount when he disobeyed trainer William Gowan’s pre-derby instructions to not
take Ride on Curlin straight to the rail. Here’s the Derby chart call and race
replay.
RIDE ON
CURLIN dove towards the rail soon after the break,
settled well off the pace while remaining inside, steadied off heels when
making headway into the lane, altered course nine wide inside three sixteenths
pole, wandered outward despite right handed urging inside the sixteenth pole
and had a belated gain.
Ride
On Curlin only missed finishing in fourth-place by one length and he lost the
race by 6¾-lengths which is close to the distance of ground he had to run when
he swung nine wide around the entire Derby field for his stretch run. A better
run in the Preakness will make him a tough competitor and he has the breeding
to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred.
Ride
On Curlin is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and
he’s bred on a nick with the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd which, since 1990,
has been the most successful nick on the Triple Crown Trail producing 12
Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.
Curlin, the sire of Ride On Curlin,
did not make his career debut until February of his 3-year-old racing season
and was undefeated in three starts, including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and
Arkansas Derby (G2), en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky
Derby (G1).
Curlin
went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) by a head and he lost the Belmont
Stakes (G1) by a head. During his career, Curlin won numerous Eclipse awards,
compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts and earned over $10.5 million
dollars. At stud, Curlin sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice.
Smart
Strike, the
grandsire of Ride On Curlin, has proven to be an outstanding sire of champions
and classic champions. He sired the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Curlin and Lookin at Lucky and he’s the damsire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby
winner Mine That Bird.
In
addition, Smart Strike is the sire of numerous Canadian Sovereign Award
winners: Soaring Free, Portcullis, Added
Edge, Eye of the Sphynx, Gold
Strike; and
Smart Strike is the sire of the American Eclipse Award winner English Channel.
Storm
Cat, the
damsire of Ride on Curlin, sired Tabasco
Cat, winner of
the 1994 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Storm Cat also sired the outstanding European
champion Giant’s Causeway, who was
undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old (all at 7-furlongs) – winning the
Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes. As a
3-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was 6-4-0 in 10 starts, winning from 7- to
10-furlongs, and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the
Year.
A
Preakness Stakes victory by Ride on Curlin would be sweet for owner Daniel
Dougherty who turned down a $1 million offer for his purchase after his
maiden-breaking 7¾-length romp in a sprint race at Ellis Park last July. He
covered the 5½-furlongs a track record-setting time of 1:03.00.
A
recent bullet work out at Pimlico on May 14 could have Ride On Curlin primed to
run a career-best race at a nice price.
RING WEEKEND
(20-1) – A
chestnut gelding by Tapit out of Free the Magic by Cryptoclearance was foaled
on April 27, 2011. He comes into the Preakness Stakes (G1) for owners St. Elias
Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds with a 2-2-2 record in seven starts. Ring
Weekend had enough points to run in the Derby but trainer Graham Motion took
him out of contention when he spiked a fever a week
before the race.
Ring
Weekend was my long shot pick to win the Tampa Bay Derby and he comes into the
Preakness off of a second-place finish in the Calder Derby. Here’s the chart
call and video replay:
RING
WEEKEND bobbled slightly at the break, pulled and was
steadied entering the clubhouse turn, stalked outside, bid three wide on the
turn, steadied and briefly took up at the three sixteenths marker, then could
not stay with the winner.
Despite
the second-place finish, Ring Weekend has never finished worse than second in
his four starts as a three year old. Jockey Alan Garcia, who rides Ring Weekend
in the Preakness, also noted in a story for the Handicappers Edge that his Calder Derby race was a throw out.
Tapit, the sire of Ring Weekend, was
a multiple graded-stakes winner who won the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) en route
to a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He did not race in any of
the other Triple Crown races.
Pulpit, the grandsire of Ring
Weekend, also was a graded stakes winner who was competitive on the 1997 Triple
Crown Trail. He won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), finished second in the
Florida Derby (G1) and won the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) en route to a
fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Cryptoclearance, the damsire of Ring Weekend, was a multiple
graded-stakes winner who finished fourth in the 1987 Kentucky Derby (G1), third
in the Preakness Stakes (G1) and second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
A
recent bullet work out on May 10 could have Ring Weekend ready to run a good
race and I look for him to be competitive in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Of the
top four horses, Ring Weekend with 20-1 odds is the best long shot pick.
BAYERN (10-1) – A dark bay colt by Offlee Wild
out of Alittlebitearly by Classic Champion Thoroughbred Thunder Gulch was foaled
on May 3 2011. Bayern, with a 2-1-1 record, has never been out of the money in
his four previous starts for owner Kaleem Shah, Inc. Bayern finished first in
the Derby Trial, narrowly defeating Embellishing Bob by a
nose, but was disqualified from first to second. Here’s the chart call and
video replay:
BAYERN was away
in good order, disputed the pace off of the inside, brushed with EMBELLISHING
BOB repeatedly through the drive, drifted out under left handed urging and was
all out to prevail by the narrowest margin.
Bayern
never raced as a two year old and, since his debut in January, he’s shown
steadily improving form with each race. Bayern’s stretch out to finish third in
the 9-furlong Arkansas Derby (G1) was a good test for the young colt and he
followed that with another nice performance in the Derby Trail Stakes (G3). And
Bayern has the breeding to be competitive in classic competition.
Offlee Wild, the sire of
Bayern, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who never won a classic race but he
was more than capable of stretching out to the 10-furlong classic distance when
won the 2005 Suburban Handicap (G1). Wild Again, the grandsire of
Bayern, sired Sarava, the 2002
Belmont Stakes (G1) winner and Born
Wild, winner of the 1995 Austrian Derby.
Thunder Gulch, the
damsire of Bayern, was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred who won the 1995
Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). Alydar, the sire of the second
dam, would have been a Classic Champion Thoroughbred if Affirmed had not been his
rival on the 1978 Triple Crown Trail.
I
look for Bayern to run a career-best in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
KID CRUZ (20-1) – A bay colt by Lemon Drop Kid out of Layreebelle by Tale of the Cat
was foaled on March 30, 2011. Since his seventh-place finish in his maiden
debut last November, Kid Cruz has never finished worse than second in five
starts for owners Vina Del Mar Thoroughbreds and Black S. He comes into the
Preakness with a 3-1-0 record including a 4-length win in the Private Terms Stakes and a 3½-length win in the
Federico Tesio Stakes. Here’s the chart call and video replay of the Tesio
Stakes:
KID CRUZ settled
three to four wide off of a slow but contested pace, edged closer after a half
mile, came under some urging leaving three eighths pole, rallied under right
handed pressure to take command in mid-stretch, had his rider switch to left
stick soon after, was roused once then quickly widened to prove clearly best.
The
only concern I have with Kid Cruz is his slow finish times in his last two
stakes races. If he can step up in this group of horses, then he could be
competitive. He definitely has the breeding to be competitive in classic competition.
Lemon Drop Kid, the sire
of Kid Cruz, was a multiple graded stakes winner and Classic Champion
Thoroughbred who won the 1999 Belmont Stakes and was the 2000 Eclipse Award
Champion Older Horse.
Tale of the Cat, the
damsire of Kid Cruz, never raced in classic competition but Storm Cat, the second
damsire, was the sire of Tabasco
Cat who won the 1994 Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other
classic influences in the pedigree of Kid Cruz include Kingmambo, Miesque and Triple Crown winner
Seattle Slew.
Kid
Cruz will have to improve his game in the Preakness, but he has the breeding to
be competitive and I look for him be closing at the end of the race.
*****
Kentucky Derby 140 Wrap Up
Although
Kentucky Derby 140 was not as profitable as I hoped it would be, I’m encouraged
that for the second year in a row, my Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ has been an effective
handicapping tool, eliminating over half of the Derby field from contention.
The
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ is
a tool I use to measure classic potential in young Thoroughbreds. The higher
the profile score, the more potential of that horse to become a Classic
Champion Thoroughbred.
The
profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the
outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the trip the horse gets
during the race. Another thing to keep in mind is that horses, for many
different reasons, sometimes fail to live up to their potential.
And
if three of the six horses I wrote about in my Derby blog had a little bit of
racing luck, they, all, would have finished in the top six spots. Nevertheless, I used California
Chrome in a few Derby wagers and hit the exacta with him and Commanding Curve, who was a whopping 37.80-1 long shot. Wicked Strong and Medal Count were interfered
with by Danza who knocked me out of the
trifecta and superfecta. A big disappointment was Ride On Curlin who only lost
by 6¾-lengths and if he’d had a better ride he would have been up there for
second, third or, maybe, even the win.
As
you can see from the chart below, my whopping long shot, Commanding Curve, was
the best call of them all. He was ranked third and finished second. Wicked
Strong was ranked 4th and he finished in that spot. Ride On Curlin
was ranked 2nd and finished 7th. Medal Count was ranked 5th
and finished 8th.
Some
horses who took a lot of money from handicappers were complete throw outs: Intense
Holiday was ranked 13th and he finished 12th, Candy Boy
was ranked 19th and he finished 13th.
Other
horses that had no chance in the Derby ran close to their ranking: General A
Rod was ranked 10th and finishd 11th. Uncle Sigh was ranked 16th and
finished 14th. Vinceremos was ranked 18th and finished 17th.
Wildcat Red was ranked 15th and finished 18th. Vicar’s In
Trouble ran worst of all. He was ranked 13th and he finished dead
last. Let’s take a look at the final Derby outcome.
Original Rank, Horse, Odds, Profile
Score – Derby Finish
10. California
Chrome (2.50) 303.76 – 1
3. Commanding Curve (37.80) 326.26 – 2
9. Danza (8.70) 304.38
– 3
4. Wicked Strong (6.50)
320.00 – 4
17. Samraat (16.70) 295.63 – 5
12. Dance
With Fate (16.00) 303.13 – 6
2. Ride on Curlin (17.30) 331.26
– 7
5. Medal Count (26.20) 318.75 – 8
7. Chitu (25.50) 311.25
– 9
1. We Miss Artie (27.60) 332.13
– 10
10. General A Rod (30.70) 303.76
– 11
13. Intense Holiday (14.10) 302.51 – 12
19. Candy Boy (9.40) 283.13
– 13
16. Uncle
Sigh (30.80) 299.38 – 14
6. Tapiture (35.20) 311.26 – 15
8. Harry’s Holiday (44.30) 308.76
– 16
18. Vinceremos (49.70) 283.76 – 17
15. Wildcat Red (18.60) 300.01 – 18
13. Vicar’s In Trouble (20.40) 302.51 – 19
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