Gotham Stakes Racing Roundup

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the empire state Saturday where the My Meadowview Farm coupled entry of Samraat and Noble Cornerstone have been selected as morning line 5-2 favorite in the 61^st running of the $500,000 Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct.

Trained by Richard Violette, Jr., Samraat is the reason for the favoritism as he comes into the Gotham undefeated in four starts including wins in the Damon Runyon Stakes and the Withers Stakes (G3). He looms as the horse to beat and he should be competitive.

However, in the Withers, Samraat prevailed by one length after a hard-fought stretch battle with Uncle Sigh who is also entered in the Gotham as the 3-1 morning-line second choice to win. I look for those two to be tough in this race, too, and the 50 points for the win would be enough to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

This time around the track, though, I would not be surprised to see Uncle Sigh turn the tables on Samraat. Since his narrow loss in the Withers, Uncle Sigh has fired two back-to-back bullet work outs and he could be ready to run the best race of his career.

A newcomer to the party who could, perhaps, give those two some competition is the morning line third-choice Extrasexyhippzster (4-1) who comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in five starts including wins in the Don Rickles Stakes and the Miracle Wood Stakes.

Extrasexyhippzster has yet to stretch out to 8½ furlongs, but his finish time of 1:36.75 in the one-mile Miracle Wood Stakes is pretty good and he has the breeding to be competitive.

So, as you can see, from this corner the Gotham looks pretty chalky and I would not be surprised to see those three bet way down with one, perhaps, at even-money odds come post time.

A long shot I like in this race is Monopolize (30-1) who comes into the Gotham with a 1-0-0 record in three starts and he will be wearing blinkers for the first time for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Despite his record, Monopolize has the breeding to be competitive in this race. His sire is the 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Bernardini and is tail-female line is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Thunder Gulch and Risen Star.

So far, Monopolize has not lived up to his breeding and the addition of blinkers could, perhaps, help him to be competitive. If he looks good in the post parade, Monopolize may be worthy of a small wager.

Harpoon (10-1), Financial Mogul (10-1) and In Trouble (5-1) could factor in the exotic wagers.

*****

The championship series kicked off last weekend and several new horses were added to the top 20 list. Under the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Gotham Stakes (G3) will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive five points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 Derby qualifiers:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500

2. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000

3. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000

4. Tapiture, 22, Steve Asmussen, $300,738

5. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000

6. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000

7. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000

8. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000

9. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000

10. Tamarando, 12, Jerry Hollendorfer, $490,000

11. Midnight Hawk, 12, Bob Baffert, $84,000

12. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000

13. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $786,633

14. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000

15. Candy Boy, 10, John Sadler, $260,000

16. Samraat, 10, Rick Violette, Jr., $150,000

17. Noble Moon, 10, Leah Gyarmati, $145,000

18. Ami’s Holiday, 10, Josie Carrroll, $136,145

19. Cleburne, 10, Dale Romans, $102,044

20. Tanzanite Cat, 10, Code Autrey, $90,000

Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup

After the 71^st running of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park this Saturday, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” will take us to Louisiana, the Pelican State, where an overflow field of 16 young Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 41^st running of the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Post time for the Risen Star is 6:25 PM Eastern Standard Time.

Only 14 horses are eligible to enter the starting gate and it appears that several of them, depending on their level of development, could have the potential to step up and earn graded-stakes honors. Trainer Doug O’Neill announced Wednesday that Bond Holder would be scratched and that would open the door for the also eligible Emmett Park (20-1) to draw into the race.

Vicar’s in Trouble, trained by Michael Maker and owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, comes into the race with a 2-0-1 record in three starts and heads the field as the morning line 5-2 favorite. Hero of the Le Comte Stakes (G3), Vicar’s in Trouble cruised to a 6¾-length victory in that race which included Albano (12-1) and Gold Hawk (8-1) and both colts are also entered in the Risen Star.

Jockey Rosie Napravnik has ridden Vicar’s In Trouble in all three of his previous starts and she retains the mount in the Risen Star. I look for the pair to be competitive.

Rise Up (4-1) has not raced since last November and he comes into this race with a 4-1-0 record in 6 starts including wins in the 6-furlong Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes, the one mile Jean Lafitte Stakes and the 8½-furlong Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). Rise Up is ranked ninth in my 2014 Kentucky Derby Outlook. Here’s an excerpt of what I wrote about him with the chart call and video replay of his 6-length victory in the Delta Downs Jackpot:

RISE UP set a well handled pace from the start, was in control heading into the far turn then drew off in upper stretch while leading throughout.

Rise up is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a nick with the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd.

Rockport Harbor, the sire of Rise Up, was a competitive racehorse who compiled a 5-1-0 record in eight career starts. His most notable graded-stakes win as a two year old was in the one mile Nashua Stakes (G3) and the 9-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2). Despite his impressive record, Rockport Harbor’s race times were slow and he never competed in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky-bred Johannesburg, the damsire of Rise Up, was an undefeated racehorse in England, Ireland and France who was shipped to America in 2001 where he won Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and was eventually selected as the Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Colt and the Cartier Two-Year-Old Champion Colt. In his debut as a three year old, Johannesburg finished second at the Curragh in Ireland and was then shipped to America where he finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby. During his racing career, Johannesburg compiled a 7-1-0 record in 10 starts with $1,014,585 in earnings.

Rise Up has shown good early speed in all of his races. But, his finish times are slower than what I like to see in a colt on the trail. I’ll be watching closely to see how he fares in his debut as a three year old.

A long shot I like in this race is Commanding Curve (20-1) who is stepping up in class and comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in four starts. Since finishing sixth in his maiden debut, Commanding Curve has steadily been improving and finally broke his maiden on his fourth start at Churchill Downs last November.

Despite the 2½-month layoff, Commanding Curve has been working out good at the Fair Grounds and two recent bullet work outs indicate that he could be ready to run a good race when he makes his first start as a three year old in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). And he has the breeding to be competitive.

Master Command, the sire of Commanding Curve, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled an 8-2-2 record in 17 starts with $1,137,188 in career earnings. He made only two sprint starts at 6-furlongs, finishing second in both races, while all of his other races were in routes where he excelled at 9-furlongs.

Of Master Command’s eight victories, five of them were in stakes competition. His most notable stakes wins were in the National Jockey Club Handicap (G3), New Orleans Handicap (G2), Meadowlands Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G2) and the William Donald Schaefer Handicap (G3), all at 9-furlongs, and the 8½-furlong Mineshaft Handicap (G3).

Lion Hearted, the damsire of Commanding Curve, was placed in several graded-stakes races and compiled a 4-6-3 record in 18 starts with $191,630 in earnings. Lion Hearted never started in a route race and his most notable stakes placing was a second-place finish in the Riva Ridge Stakes (G2) and the Amsterdam Stakes (G3), both at 6-furlongs.

So, it is unknown if Lion Hearted could be a stamina influence for Commanding Curve. However, the tail-female line is further reinforced by the influences of Topsider and Tom Rolfe and Nodouble.

Trained by Dallas Stewart, Commanding Curve could be improving at the right time of year and another move forward off of his maiden win last November could make him competitive in the Risen Start Stakes (G2).

Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert ships Hoppertunity (8-1) in from California for a chance to earn 50 precious Derby points for owners Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman.

Hoppertunity is stepping up in class and comes into this race off of a 3-length maiden win at Santa Anita on January 30. His time of 1:36.94 is pretty decent and any improvement on that performance could make him competitive in the Risen Star.

*****

Under the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Risen Star Stakes (G2) will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive five points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 Derby qualifiers:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Tapiture, 22, Steve Asmussen, $300,738

2. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000

3. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000

4. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000

5. Tamarando, 12, Jerry Hollendorfer, $490,000

6. Midnight Hawk, 12, Bob Baffert, $84,000

7. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000

8. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $782,633

9. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000

10. Candy Boy, 10, John Sadler, $260,000

11. Samraat, 10, Rick Violette, Jr., $150,000

12. Noble Moon, 10, Leah Gyarmati, $145,000

13. Ami’s Holiday, 10, Josie Carrroll, $136,145

14. Vicar’s in Trouble, 10, Mike Maker, $120,000

15. Cleburne, 10, Dale Romans, $102,044

16. Tanzanite Cat, 10, Code Autrey, $90,000

17. Strong Mandate, 6, D. Wayne Lukas, $442,500

18. Casigaupo, 5, Mario Morales, $271,050

19. Classic Giacnroll, 5, Lisa Guerrero, $62,500

20. Ride On Curlin, 5, Billy Gowan, $94,387

Fountain of Youth Stakes Racing Roundup

Derby fever rises a couple of degrees Saturday when Churchill Downs kicks off its “Road To The Kentucky Derby” championship series consisting of 16 races beginning with the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park and culminating with the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland on April 19.

The points in the championship series are considerably higher than in the previous prep races as the winners in the first eight races of the series will receive 50 points. The next seven races in the series, beginning with the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on March 29, will be worth 100 points to the winner while the final race in the series, the Lexington Stakes (G3), will be worth 10 points.

Let’s take a look at the 71^st running of the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Post time for the race is 5:33 PM Eastern Standard Time.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has two entered: We Miss Artie (8-1), ranked ninth on the 2014 Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and Commissioner, who has yet to crack the leaderboard, but with two wins already at 9-furlongs, he will go to the starting gate as the morning-line 3-1 favorite.

Commissioner comes into the Fountain of Youth with a 2-1-0 record in three starts, all at route distances, and I look for him to be competitive.

Top Billing, trained by Shug McGaughey, is also stepping up in class and he comes into the Fountain of Youth as the morning line 7-2 second choice. Of all the horses entered in this race, Top Billing is the one I’m most interested in as I ranked him fifth in my 2014 Kentucky Derby Outlook.

When I wrote my Derby Outlook, Top Billing had only run in one sprint race. One never knows how these young colts will fare on the Derby Trail, but Top Billing has the breeding to be competitive. Here’s an excerpt from my Derby Outlook with the chart call and video replay:

TOP BILLING, steadied when shuffled back soon after the break, was well back early, circled the turn three deep, was put to a drive in upper stretch, remained in the three path, split horses inside the eighth pole then eagerly pulled away.

Curlin, the damsire of Top Billing, is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a nick with Deputy Minister who’s an influential descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. (See note, below, about Deputy Minister in analysis of Strong Mandate.)

Curlin was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred who, for many years, was the all-time leading money earner but is now ranked second with $10,501,800 in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he was third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.

In his first crop at stud, Curlin got Palace Malice who won the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1). Like Curlin, Palace Malice is also bred on a nick with the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd.

Parade Queen, the dam of Top Billing, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled a 6-4-2 record in 16 starts with $419,357 in earnings. The tail-female line of Top Billing descends from the foundation mare Tregonwells Natural Barb Mare (Family 1). His immediate family descends from Chelandry (Family 1-n) and that is the same family that produced the 1984 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, Swale. Popingoal, the sixth dam of Swale, is also the ninth dam of Top Billing. In addition, Top Billing’s tail-female line is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds A.P. Indy, Roberto and Nijinsky.

Top Billing’s star potential was originally brought to my attention in a tweet by fellow blogger J.J. Hysell who also writes about the young horses on the Derby Trail and you can follow her “In The Money” blog at this link. Here’s her tweet:

J.J. Hysell ‏@trifectabox 11 Dec : Honor Code is all the rage, but Shug's other colt, Top Billing, is likely a better Kentucky Derby prospect.

I definitely agree J.J. and I’m looking forward to see how Top Billing fares in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

General A Rod (5-1), trained by Michael Maker, also looks like he could be competitive in this race. He comes into the Fountain of Youth with 2-1-0 record in three starts including a win in the Gulfstream Park Derby on January1.

His time of 1:35.84 in the Gulstream Park Derby is what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail and he has the breeding to stretch out to 9-furlongs. Another move forward could make General A Rod competitive in this race.

We Miss Artie, Pletcher’s other entry, could round out the exotics.

*****

Under the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) will receive 50 points, the second-place finisher will receive 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive five points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 Derby qualifiers:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Tapiture, 22, Steve Asmussen, $300,738

2. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000

3. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000

4. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000

5. Tamarando, 12, Jerry Hollendorfer, $490,000

6. Midnight Hawk, 12, Bob Baffert, $84,000

7. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000

8. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $782,633

9. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000

10. Candy Boy, 10, John Sadler, $260,000

11. Samraat, 10, Rick Violette, Jr., $150,000

12. Noble Moon, 10, Leah Gyarmati, $145,000

13. Ami’s Holiday, 10, Josie Carrroll, $136,145

14. Vicar’s in Trouble, 10, Mike Maker, $120,000

15. Cleburne, 10, Dale Romans, $102,044

16. Tanzanite Cat, 10, Code Autrey, $90,000

17. Strong Mandate, 6, D. Wayne Lukas, $442,500

18. Casigaupo, 5, Mario Morales, $271,050

19. Classic Giacnroll, 5, Lisa Guerrero, $62,500

20. Ride On Curlin, 5, Billy Gowan, $94,387