Withers Stakes Racing Roundup

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to the Empire State Saturday where Samraat has been tagged as the prohibitive 7-5 morning-line favorite in the 134^th running of the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Undefeated in three starts, Samraat has won his previous races by a combined 25 lengths including a 16-length romp in the Damon Runyon Stakes at Aqueduct on December 18.

During the winter break, Samraat was sent to Florida where he’s been working out good at the Palm Meadows Training Center.

"He had a few races close together and ran such a big race in the Damon Runyon…It seemed like the Jerome (G2) would be back too quick," said trainer Rick Violette in an Aqueduct news story. "We sent him to Florida, and it seems like that's been the right move with the way the weather has been [in New York]. He's been doing great, as usual."

And, Samraat looks like the horse to beat in the Withers. He definitely has the breeding to be competitive at this distance.

Samraat is a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a nick with the Nasrullah Ancestral. His nick is very similar to that of Creative Cause who was a multiple graded-stakes winner that finished fifth in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes (G1).

Noble Causeway, the sire of Samraat, was a multiple graded stakes-placed racehorse who finished second in the 9-furlong Florida Derby (G1).

Giant’s Causeway, the grandsire of Samraat, was undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old (all at 7-furlongs) – winning the Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes. As a 3-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was 6-4-0 in 10 starts, winning from 7- to 10-furlongs, and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the Year.

Indian Charlie, the damsire of Samraat, was a competive stakes winner who was undefeated in four starts, including a 2¼-length win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), en route to a third-place finish in the 1998 Kentucky Derby (G1).

In Excess, the second damsire of Samraat, was a good router and multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled an 11-2-3 record in 25 starts with $1,736,733 in career earnings. In 1991, In Excess set a new track record of 1:58.33 in the 10-furlong Suburban Handicap (G1), earning a 120 Beyer Speed Figure for that performance.

I look for Samraat to be competitive.

Uncle Sigh (9-5) is stepping up in class and he, also, has the breeding to be competitive. He broke his maiden in his last race and comes into the Withers off of a 14-length romp at Aqueduct on December 27.

A recent bullet work out could have Uncle Sigh ready to run a good race.

Classic Giacnroll (5-1) comes into the Withers with a second-place finish in the Jerome Stakes (G2) and looks like he could factor in the exotics.

*****

Under the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Withers Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive four points, the third-place finisher will receive two points and the four-place finisher will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top 20 Derby qualifiers:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000

2. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000

3. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000

4. Tapiture, 12, Steve Asmussen, $120,738

5. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000

6. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $782,633

7. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000

8. Noble Moon, 10, Leah Gyarmati, $145,000

9. Ami’s Holiday, 10, Josie Carrroll, $136,145

10. Vicar’s in Trouble, 10, Mike Maker, $120,000

11. Cleburne, 10, Dale Romans, $102,044

12. Tanzanite Cat, 10, Code Autrey, $90,000

13. Midnight Hawk, 10, Bob Baffert, $60,000

14. Casigaupo, 5, Mario Morales, $271,050

15. Conquest Titan, 4, Mark Casse, $163,445

16. Dance With Fate, 4, Peter Eurton, $110,000

17. Smarty’s Echo, 4, Anne Smith, $82,000

18. Albano, 4, Larry Jones, $70,000

19. Classic Giacnroll, 4, Lisa Guerrero, $50,000

20. Walt, 4, Chris Hartman, $45,000

Holy Bull Stakes Racing Roundup

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Gulfstream Park Saturday where Cairo Prince heads a field of eight 3-year-old Thoroughbreds as the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the 28^th running of the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes.

Cairo Prince comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in three starts including a win in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and a narrow loss by a nose to Honor Code in the Remsen Stakes (G2).

Cairo Prince has shown that he’s competitive at this distance and, despite the two-month layoff, two recent bullet work outs could have him ready to run a good race.

Mr. Speaker (5-1) is a young colt I wrote about in my 2014 Kentucky Derby Outlook and I’m eager to see how he performs in his debut as a three year old. Here’s an excerpt of what I wrote about him:

Pulpit, the sire of Mr. Speaker, did not race as a two year old. But, he was competitive on the trail as a three year old, compiling a 4-1-0 record en route to the 1997 Kentucky Derby where he finished in fourth place, 6½-lengths and a head behind the victor, Silver Charm. Pulpit’s most notable stakes wins were in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2).

A.P. Indy, grandsire of Mr. Speaker and Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, the great grandsire of Mr. Speaker, were Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. (See notes, below, about A.P Indy and Seattle Slew in analysis of Honor Code.) Unbridled, the damsire of Mr. Speaker, was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred and he’s the damsire of Orb, winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby.

Mr. Speaker is bred on a nick of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd over the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and that nick has been very successful producing the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Orb and Bernardini, winner of the 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1). In addition, that nick also produced Orb’s sire, Malibu Moon, as well as Pulpit, Mineshaft and Tapit.

Mr. Speaker comes into the Holy Bull with a 2-0-1 record in four starts including a win in the Dania Beach Stakes (G3). All of his previous four starts have been on the turf, but Mr. Speaker has the breeding to be a good dirt horse and he’s been working out good at Payson Park Thoroughbred Training Center.

One never knows how these young colts will fare on the Derby Trail. However, Mr. Speaker is one of the best-bred colts in this field and if he lives up to his breeding he’ll be tough in the Holy Bull.

Undefeated in two starts, Coup de Grace is moving up in class and he’s a young colt I selected as an honorable mention in my Derby Outlook. With Tapit as his sire and Storm Cat as his damsire, Coup de Grace has similar Ancestral Herd breeding as that of Honor Code.

Coup de Grace picks up the services of jockey John Velazquez and a sharp bullet work out on January 19 could have him ready to run a good race. If Coup de Grace improves off of his previous two stars, he’ll be competitive in the Holy Bull.

Honorable mention goes to Conquest Titan (12-1) and Wicked Strong (8-1).

Conquest Titan comes into this race with a 2-0-0 record in five starts and he looked sharp winning his last race at Churchill Downs last November.

Conquest Titan has a good pedigree and his breeding indicates that he should be competitive on the Derby Trail. However, it remains to be seen if Conquest Titan will live up to his breeding.

Wicked Strong finished a respectable third in the Remsen and if he improves off of that performance, he could be a factor in the exotics.

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000

2. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000

3. Tapiture, 12, Steve Asmussen, $120,738

4. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000

5. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $782,633

6. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000

7. Noble Moon, 10, Leah Gyarmati, $145,000

8. Ami’s Holiday, 10, Josie Carrroll, $136,145

9. Vicar’s in Trouble, 10, Mike Maker, $120,000

10. Cleburne, 10, Dale Romans, $102,044

11. Tanzanite Cat, 10, Code Autrey, $90,000

12. Midnight Hawk, 10, Bob Baffert, $60,000

13. Casigaupo, 5, Mario Morales, $271,050

14. Cairo Prince, 4, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $230,000

15. Dance With Fate, 4, Peter Eurton, $110,000

16. Smarty’s Echo, 4, Anne Smith, $82,000

17. Albano, 4, Larry Jones, $70,000

18. Classic Giacnroll, 4, Lisa Guerrero, $50,000

19. Walt, 4, Chris Hartman, $45,000

18. Laddie Boy, 4, Chuck Perry, $39,719

19. Smart Cover, 4, Dale Romans, $32,918

20. Big Bazinga, 4, Sandra Dominguez, $29,139

Smarty Jones Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Mark Casse’s Coastline has been tabbed as the lukewarm 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 7^th running Monday of the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

In his last race, Coastline also was favored in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). But he stumbled at the start and was unable to make up the lost ground, finishing eighth in a ten-horse field, 12-lengths behind the victor, Rise Up. Prior to that race, Coastline was 2-1-0 in three starts.

A sharp work out on January 13 at Oaklawn Park, running 5-furlongs in 1:03.20 over a fast track, could have Coastline ready to run a good race. And, if he runs anywhere near his final time of 1:36.77 in the Street Sense Stakes, which he won at Churchill Downs last October, that would make him very competitive in this race.

A long shot I like in this race is Unstoppable Colby (20-1) who will go to the starting gate for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Unstoppable Colby has yet to break his maiden and he comes into this race with a 0-1-0 record in three starts. However, Unstoppable Colby showed good speed in his last race to finish second in 7-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs last November.

Lukas knows how to get horses ready for big races and last year he won this race with the 12.10 long shot Will Take Charge who was my Kentucky Derby long shot pick and selected this weekend as the Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male.

Unstoppable Colby has been working out at Oaklawn Park and recently he posted a faster work than Coastline, running 5-furlongs in 1:03.00 over a good track. Unstoppable Colby appears to be an improving colt and another move forward would make him competitive in the Smarty Jones Stakes.

Tanzanite Cat (6-1), trained by Coty Autry, is stepping up in class and he comes into the Smarty Jones with a 4-length maiden-breaking win in a 5½-furlong sprint at the Fair Grounds on December 8.

He’s yet to run in a route race, however, if Tanzanite Cat is anything like his sire, Graeme Hall, then he should be competitive in the stretch out to a mile. Graeme Hall was fast colt who also broke his maiden on his second start and, as a three year old on the 2000 Kentucky Derby Trail, he was able to carry his speed to victory in the 9-furlong Arkansas Derby (G2).

I look for Tanzanite Cat to be competitive.

Son of a Preacher (9-2), trained by Bret Calhoun, and Fire Starter (5-1), trained by Steve Hobby, could round out the exotics.

*****

The Smarty Jones Stakes is not a graded stakes race but it’s proven to be a key race on the Derby trail with Eclipse Champion Will Take Charge winning this race last year. The winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes will receive 10 points while second place will yield 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Kentucky Derby qualifiers:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000

2. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000

3. Tapiture, 12, Steve Asmussen, $120,738

4. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000

5. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $782,633

6. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000

7. Noble Moon, 10, Leah Gyarmati, $145,000

8. Ami’s Holiday, 10, Josie Carrroll, $136,145

9. Vicar’s in Trouble, 10, Mike Maker, $120,000

10. Cleburne, 10, Dale Romans, $102,044

11. Midnight Hawk, 10, Bob Baffert, $60,000

12. Casigaupo, 5, Mario Morales, $271,050

13. Cairo Prince, 4, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $230,000

14. Dance With Fate, 4, Peter Eurton, $110,000

15. Smarty’s Echo, 4, Anne Smith, $82,000

16. Albano, 4, Larry Jones, $70,000

17. Classic Giacnroll, 4, Lisa Guerrero, $50,000

18. Laddie Boy, 4, Chuck Perry, $39,719

19. Smart Cover, 4, Dale Romans, $32,918

20. Big Bazinga, 4, Sandra Dominguez, $29,139