Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: October 2012

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Grey Stakes Racing Roundup

Uncaptured is undefeated in four starts, winning several of the major stakes races for Canadian 2-year-old colts, and today he’ll put his put his record on the line when the goes to the starting gate as the morning line even-money favorite in the 106^th running of the $200,000 Grey Stakes (G3) at Woodbine racetrack.

In May, Uncaptured won his maiden debut by a nose and since that squeaker he’s followed up with a 5½-length romp in the Clarendon Stakes, a one-length win in the Vandal Stakes, and a 3¼-length victory in the Swynford Stakes.

Today’s race is Uncaptured’s debut in graded-stakes competition and his first attempt to run a route of ground. But with Lion Heart as his sire and Arch as his damsire, he should be able to easily stretch out to 8½-furlongs.

As a 2-year-old, Lion Heart won the 7-furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and the 8½-furlong Hollywood Futurity (G1). Arch was a pretty good middle-distance runner who was able to stretch out to win 10-furlong Super Derby (G1).

If Uncaptured repeats the form of his previous races, he’ll be tough to beat.

Uncaptured is trained by Mark Casse who also has Indiano Jones (10-1) and Star Contender (12-1) entered in the Grey Stakes (G3). Of those two, I like Indiano Jones the best.

In his second start, Indiano Jones broke his maiden by 1¼-lengths in a 7-furlong sprint race at Woodbine on August 19. His time for the race of 1:22.87 in on par with Uncaptured’s 1:22.49 that he set in the Swynford Stakes. Indiano Jones followed up his maiden win with a third-place finish in the Summer Stakes (G2) where he was beaten by two lengths.

With A.P. Indy as his sire and Touch Gold as his damsire, Indiano Jones has the breeding to be competitive in today’s race but he’ll have to improve his game if he’s going to earn graded stakes honors.

In three starts, River Seven (4-1) is still a maiden but he’s improved his game with each start and I don’t look for him to be a maiden much longer.

In his maiden debut, River Seven finished third by nine lengths to Uncaptured in the Clarendon Stakes. He narrowed the margin in his next race and was a one-length runner-up to Uncaptured in the Vandal Stakes.

In his third start and first route race, River Seven encountered traffic problems at the top of the stretch but rallied to finish second by a half-length to Tesseron (3-1) who is also entered in today’s race.

Johannesburg, the sire of River Seven, was a pretty good middle-distance horse that won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Chester House, the damsire of River Seven, was a multiple Group Stakes Champion in England. He did his best racing at 10-furlongs winning such prestigious races as the Brigadier Gerard Stakes (G3), Huxley Stakes (G1) and Arlington Million Stakes (G1).

If River Seven continues to move forward, he should be able to stretch out and be competitive in the Grey Stakes (G3).

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

(Updated October 7, 2012)

Individual Leaders, total points

Joha, 10

Power Broker, 10

River Seven, 10

Shanghai Bobby, 10

Steeler, 10

Artigiano, 4

Dynamic Sky, 4

Goldencents, 4

Know More, 4

Tesseron, 4

Al Waab, 2

Capo Bastone, 2

Fortify, 2

Indiano Jones, 2

Java’s War, 2

Archwarrior, 1

Carving, 1

Birdman, 1

Five Iron, 1

Pataky Kid, 1

Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), Newmarket, September 29, 2012

1. Steeler,10

2. Artigiano,4

3. Al Waab,2

4. Birdman,1

Frontrunner Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, September 29, 2012

1. Power Broker, 10

2. Know More, 4

3. Capo Bastone, 2

4. Carving, 1

Foxwoods Champagne Stakes (G1), Belmont Park, October 6, 2012

1. Shanghai Bobby, 10

2. Goldencents, 4

3. Fortify, 2

4. Archwarrior, 1

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Keeneland, October 6, 2012

1. Joha, 10

2. Dynamic Sky, 4

3. Java’s War, 2

4. Pataky Kid, 1

Grey Stakes (G3), Woodbine, October 7, 2012

1. River Seven, 10

2. Tesseron, 4

3. Indiano Jones, 2

4. Five Iron, 1

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Champagne Stakes Racing Roundup

Todd Pletcher works hard to be a leading trainer. Of the 21 young Thoroughbreds nominated to the Foxwoods Champagne Stakes (G1), Pletcher trains 10 of those horses and today he’ll send three of them – Archwarrior, Shanghai Bobbby and Micromanage – to the Belmont Park starting gate in the 142^nd running of the prestigious $400,000 stakes race.

Archwarrior is the 5-2 morning line favorite. Shanghai Bobby and California shipper Goldencents are the 3-1 morning line second choice while Micromanage is the 5-1 morning line third choice in what appears to be a very contentious race of fast 2-year-olds.

Archwarrior comes into the race off of a 3¼-length maiden win in a 6-furlong sprint race at Saratoga Race Course on August 30. But he’s yet to show his spirit in stakes competition and this is his first attempt at running a route of ground.

However, with Arch as his sire and Seeking The Gold as his damsire, Archwarrior will not have a problem stretching out to a mile and I look for him to be competitive in today’s race.

Undefeated in three starts, Shanghai Bobby broke his maiden by four lengths at Aqueduct racetrack on April 19. He followed that romp with a one length victory in the Track Barron Stakes at Belmont Park on June 27. He finally graduated with graded stakes honors posting a 3¾-length win in the Hopeful Stakes (G2) at Saratoga on September 3.

Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of Shanghai Bobby, was competitive as a two year old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes, Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.

Orientate, the damsire of Shanghai Bobby, was a champion sprinter and Carson City, the sire of the second dam Steel Band, also adds some speed influence to the pedigree of Shanghai Bobby.

Jockey Rosie Napravnik has done a masterful job guiding Shanghai Bobby to three victories in three starts and I look for them to be competitive in today’s race. But their courage could be severely tested by the California shipper Goldencents.

Trained by Doug O’Neill, Goldencents comes into today’s race off of an impressive 7¼-length romp in his maiden debut at Del Mar on September 2.

As a 2-year-old, Into Mischief, the sire of Goldencents, finished second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and won the 8½-furlong CashCall Futurity (G1) in a time of 1:40.82 – just a few ticks off of the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.

Banker’s Gold, the sire of Goldencents’ dam Golden Works, was a pretty good sprinter that was able to carry his speed to victory in the 9-furlong Peter Pan Stakes (G2).

If Goldencents repeats the form of his maiden win, he’ll be tough in the Champagne Stakes.

The young horse I like best in this race is the Distorted Humor colt Fortify (6-1) who was an impressive 5½-length winner in this maiden debut on August 4 at Saratoga.

In his next race – the Hopeful Stakes (G1) – Fortify was bumped severely at the start by Lawn Man but recovered well and still managed to get up for second place, 3¾-lengths behind winner Shanghai Bobby.

If he stays out of trouble and repeats the form of his maiden win, Fortify should be competitive in today’s race.

Honorable mention goes to the 12-1 long shot Chief Havoc who ships in for today’s race from England. With Giant’s Causeway as his sire and A.P. Indy as his damsire, Chief Havoc has the breeding to be competitive in today’s race and if he looks good in the paddock he may be worthy of a wager.

Giant’s Causeway sired First Samurai who won the 2005 Champagne Stakes (G1) and A.P. Indy sired the 2000 victor A.P. Valentine.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Dixiana Breeders' Futurity Racing Roundup

Trainer Todd Pletcher will send Tizracer to the starting gate Saturday as the 4-1 morning line favorite in the 99^th running of the $400,000 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland racetrack.

Tizracer comes into the Dixiana off of an impressive 10½-length romp, and earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure, in his maiden-breaking win at Belmont Park on September 8. Despite that effort, though, there are other horses I like better in this overflow field of 16 young Thoroughbreds.

Four horses I like best are: Balance The Books (5-1), Craving Carats (12-1), Java’s War (12-1) and Joha (6-1). However, Balance The Books, Craving Carats and Joha are also entered in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) which will be ran at Keeneland on Sunday.

If any of those horses run in the Bourbon Stakes (preferably Joha) that would simplify my wagering in the Dixiana.

Craving Carats is a horse that I have been following for some time and he appeared to be improving with each race. However, in his last race – the With Anticipation Stakes (G2) – he failed to run to his previous form and finished in eighth place, eight lengths behind the winner Balance The Books.

Craving Carats had previously defeated Balance The Books and I was a bit surprised that he did not run well considering his improving form and that he most likely is (was) the horse that Donegal Racing hoped would be their Kentucky Derby horse.

In the past, Donegal Racing used the With Anticipation Stakes as the stakes debut for two of their Derby horses – Paddy O’Prado and Dullahan. Both horses finished third in the With Anticipation Stakes and they would go on in their three-year-old season to finish third in the Kentucky Derby.

Despite his poor performance, I’m willing to overlook Craving Carats last race. Craving Carats’ pedigree suggests that he may have classic potential but I have seen many horses with nice pedigrees that never earned classic honors. Only time will tell if Craving Carats can live up to his breeding.

Trainer Dale Romans makes a jockey switch to Kent Desormeaux and a recent bullet work out at Keeneland – the only bullet he’s ever fired – could have Craving Carats primed to run a good race.

In his maiden debut, Balance The Books only lost by a half-length to Craving Carats on August 4 at Saratoga Race Course. Later that month at Saratoga, Balance The Books made a strong rally in the stretch of the With Anticipation Stakes to defeat runner up Joha by a head.

Balance The Books appears to have the will to win and with Lemon Drop Kid as his sire and Seeking The Gold as his damsire, he has a pretty good pedigree too. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile of 71.25 is the second highest in the field next to Craving Carats’ Profile of 82.5.

If Balance The Books continues to improve, he’ll be tough to beat in the Dixiana.

In July, Java’s War finished fifth in his maiden debut at Churchill Downs. He was only beaten by two lengths in that race and since then he’s put together two back-to-back wins including a narrow victory by a neck in the Sunday Silence Stakes at Louisiana Downs on September 8.

Java’s War earned a 90 speed figure for his effort in the Sunday Silence stakes and his time of 1:36.73 for the mile is the kind that I like to see in a young colt that may have classic potential.

War Pass, the sire of Java’s War, was a brilliant 2-year-old colt that won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). As a 3-year-old, War Pass finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and was later taken off the Derby Trail because of an injury.

Rainbow Quest, the damsire, and Blushing Groom, the second damsire of Java’s War, were both Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.

Java’s War is a sire-line descendant of Cherokee Run and in my July 3, 2009 blog I wrote about the importance of keeping an eye on young colts that are descendants of Cherokee Run when they stretch out in route races.

The Cherokee Run sire line has produced numerous young Thoroughbreds that proved to be pretty good middle-distance horses: Kafwain, Sir Cherokee, Chelokee, Zanjero, War Pass, Recapturetheglory, Yonaguska, The Pamplemousse and Musket Man.

If Java War lives up to his breeding, he’ll be competitive in the Dixiana.

In five starts, Joha has never been out of the money.

In May, Joha broke his maiden on his third start at Belmont Park and followed that up with a narrow win by a head in the Colin Stakes at Woodbine on July 14. A month later, Joha followed up that victory with a narrow loss by a head to Balance The Books at Saratoga on August 30.

Johar, the sire of Joha, was a pretty good middle-distance runner that was able to stretch out and win in a dead heat with High Chaparral the 12-furlong Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) and he narrowly defeated The Tin Man by a head in winning the 10-furlong San Marcos Stakes (G2) in a record time of 1:47.92.

If Joha repeats the form of his previous races, he’ll be competitive in the Dixiana.

The Dixiana, along with the Champagne Stakes (G1) which will also be ran Saturday at Belmont Park, and the Grey Stakes (G3) at Woodbine on Sunday, are Kentucky Derby qualifying races. The winner of those races will receive 10 points each, the second-place finisher will receive four points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 1 point.

After those races, I’ll post the updated list of Kentucky Derby qualifying leaders at the end of this blog.

Good luck!