Frontrunner Stakes Racing Roundup

Today at Santa Anita Park, trainer Doug O’Neill will send Know More to the starting gate as the 3-1 morning line favorite in the debut of the $250,000 Frontrunner Stakes (G1) which was formerly known as the Norfolk Stakes.

The Frontrunner is an important prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) later this fall at Santa Anita Park. It also is the first race of the new grading system used by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for the Kentucky Derby (G1) next spring. The winner of the Frontrunner will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive four points, third-place finisher will get two points and the fourth-place finisher will get one point.

In the months to come, I’ll be keeping a chart of the points that each horse has accumulated on the Kentucky Derby Trail and it looks like it will be easy to keep track of the leaders – time will tell.

In August, owner J. Paul Reddam and trainer Doug O’Neill sent the first-time starter Know More to the starting gate at 8-1 odds in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar racetrack and the gamble paid off with a win for the nice looking son of Lion Heart.

They brought Know More back a month later at the same track and, after trailing mid-pack for most of the race, he rallied in the stretch to finish second to Rolling Fog in the Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Know More was my long shot pick in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and I liked him in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) too. If Know More continues to move forward, he should be competitive in today’s race.

Lion Heart, the sire of Know More was competitive as a two-year-old, winning the Hollywood Prevue (G3) and Hollywood Futurity (G1). The damsire of Know More is the Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and the dam, Seattle Qui, has four winners from five starters and two stakes winner.

Spectacular Bid, the sire of the second dam Qui Bid, won the Young America Stakes, Laurel Futurity, Worlds' Playground Stakes and Champagne Stakes (G1) as a 2-year-old. As a 3-year-old, Spectacular Bid won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes (G1) and finished third in the Belmont Stakes (G1).

In addition, Spectacular Bid also sired the 1993 Norfolk winner Shepherd’s Field.

Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Norfolk Stakes a record five times and it looks like he’s aiming to be the first winner of the Frontrunner Stakes (G1). Baffert sends three horses to the starting gate today – Power Broker (4-1), Carving (6-1) and Den’s Legacy (12-1). Of those three, I like Power Broker the best.

Power Broker has yet to break his maiden and he comes into the race with a narrow loss in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes at Del Mar on September 5. The time of 1:35 for the race is what I like to see in a young competitor and if he repeats that performance he should be competitive in today’s race.

Pulpit, the sire of Power Broker, also sired Essence of Dubai who won the 2001 edition of the Norfolk Stakes and later went on as a 3-year-old to win the UAE 2000 Guineas Stakes (G3), UAE Derby (G2) and Super Derby (G2).

Wild Again, the damsire of Power Broker, won the 1984 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Dry Summer (6-1) comes in to the race with a narrow win by a neck over Power Broker in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes. Both horses earned a 90 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort which is the highest speed figure of all the young horses entered in today’s race.

As a 2-year-old, Any Given Saturday, the sire of Dry Summer, was a decent middle-distance horse who won an 8½-furlong allowance race at Keeneland and finished second at the same distance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

Dry Summer is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line which has produced the most winners of the Norfolk since 1990: Supremo (1994), Souvenir Copy (1997), Roman Ruler (2004), Street Hero (2008), Lookin at Lucky (2009) and Jaycito (2010).

If Dry Summer continues to move forward, he should be competitive in today’s race.

A long shot I like is Dirty Swagg who comes into the race at 12-1 morning line odds. In his first three starts, Dirty Swagg struggled as a competitor finishing off the board in all three races. But in his last outing, Dirty Swagg finally broke his maiden to win by a half-length going a mile at Del Mar racetrack on September 1.

Dirty Swagg will have to improve his game and continue to move forward if he is going to win the Frontrunner and he has the breeding to do that.

Street Hero, the sire of Dirty Swagg, won the 2008 running of the Norfolk Stakes (G1) and he’s also a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line.

Dirty Swagg’s damsire, Tabasco Cat, and Conquistador Cielo, the sire of the second dam, were both Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.

If Dirty Swagg looks good in the paddock, he could be worthy of a wager.


Addendum

I got my schedule messed up and thought that the Royal Lodge Stakes was next weekend. Here are the Kentucky Derby leaders:

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard

Individual Leaders, total points

Power Broker, 10
Steeler, 10
Know More, 4
Artigiano, 4
Capo Bastone, 2
Al Waab, 2

Carving, 1
Birdman, 1

Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2), Newmarket, September 29, 2012
1. Steeler
2. Artigiano
3. Al Waab
4. Birdman

Frontrunner Stakes (G1), Santa Anita Park, September 29, 2012
1. Power Broker
2. Know More
3. Capo Bastone
4. Carving

Del Mar Futurity Racing Roundup

Last month, owner J. Paul Reddam and trainer Doug O’Neill sent the first-time starter Know More to the starting gate at 8-1 odds in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar racetrack and the gamble paid off with a win for the nice looking son of Lion Heart.

Today, Reddam will send Know More to the starting gate in the $300,000 Del Mar Futurity (G1) as the 5-2 morning line favorite.

Know More was my long shot pick in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and it looks like O’Neill, who is on suspension, and Reddam know how to pick good spots for their young colts to be successful competitors – they are the connections of this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner I’ll Have Another.

Assistant trainer Leandro Mora will prep Know More for today’s race.

As a two-year-old, Know More’s sire Lion Heart won the Hollywood Prevue (G3) and Hollywood Futurity (G1). The damsire of Know More is the Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and the dam, Seattle Qui, has four winners from five starters and two stakes winner.

If Know More repeats his performance in the Best Pal, he’ll be tough to beat.

Trainer John Sadler sends Capo Bastone, the 3-1 morning line second-choice, and Scherer Magic (8-1) to the starting gate in today’s race.

Of the pair, I like Capo Bastone the best. He comes into today’s race with a nice maiden win at Del Mar on August 4 and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to run a good race.

Street Boss, the sire of Capo Bastone, is ranked fourth on the Thoroughbred Times Freshman Sire List with 10 winners in 31 starters for a 32 percent strike rate.

Scherer Magic was undefeated in two previous starts and the favorite going into the Best Pal Stakes. He easily won his maiden debut by 7¼-lengths at Betfair Hollywood Park on June 14 and followed up that romp a month later at the same track with a 2½-length win in the Hollywood Juvenile Championships Stakes (G3).

But Scherer Magic did not race to his previous form and finished in a disappointing fifth-place, 5¼-lengths behind the victor Know More.

Since that race, jockey Joe Talamo has been replaced by Corey Nakatani and while I’m not looking for a win from Scherer Magic in today’s race, if he looks good in the paddock and post parade, he could be worthy of a wager in the exotics.

A long shot I like in this race is Pure Loyalty (30-1) who closed from 8-lengths off the pace in his maiden debut to finish second to Tree Of Life who is another nice looking son of Lion Heart.

With Simon Pure as his sire and Arch as the damsire, Pure Loyalty should like the increase in distance to 7-furlongs. A recent bullet work out could indicate that he is ready to run a good race for trainer Mark Glatt.

Good luck with your picks!

Hopeful Stakes Racing Roundup

Owners George and Lori Hall will send the coupled entry of Bern Identity and Vegas No Show to the starting gate today as the 5-2 morning line favorite in the 108^th running of the $300,000 Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (G2) at Saratoga Race Course.

Bern Identity comes into the race with a 1¼-length win in the Sanford Stakes (G2) last month at Saratoga. Vegas No Show comes into the race with a one-length win in one mile maiden race at Delaware Park on July 26.

Both horses are trained by Kelly Breen who, with a recent bullet work out for both colts, could have them ready to run a good race.

Of the two, I look for Bern Identity to be the most competitive. I don’t think he’ll win but he could be a factor in the exotics.

The young horse I like best in this race is the Distorted Humor colt Fortify (4-1) who was an impressive 5½-length winner in this maiden debut on August 4 at Saratoga.

He showed a lot of speed in his debut and he still had a lot left at the end of the race. Since then he’s fired an impressive bullet work out for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and if he repeats the winning performance of his debut, Fortify will be tough to beat.

I also think Fortify has the best pedigree of this bunch. His sire Distorted Humor sired the classic champions Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer and he’s the grandsire of I’ll Have Another.

Fortify is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and that line has produced the most Hopeful winner since 1990: Dublin (2009), Vineyard Haven (2008), Circular Quay (2006), Afleet Alex (2004), Silver Wagon (2003), Came Home (2001), City Zip (2000, dead-heated with Yonaguska), Smoke Glacken (1996) and Great Navigator (1992).

A long shot I like in this race is Majestic Hussar (8-1) who comes into the race for trainer Eddie Kenneally off of an impressive 6¼-length win in 6-furlong maiden race in the slop at Saratoga on August 11.

Majestic Hussar showed good speed from the gate and looked professional down the lane in his maiden win. If he repeats that performance, Majestic Hussar could be competitive in the Hopeful.

Another long shot I like is Show Some Magic (6-1) who finally broke his maiden after his fourth attempt for trainer Steve Asmussen with a win in a 5½-furlong sprint at Saratoga on August 16.

Prior to his maiden victory, Show Some Magic had been racing in good company with a second-place finish to Circle Unbroken who went on to win the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) and another second-place finish to Spurious Precision who later won the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2).

Distorted Humor is the grandsire of Show Some Magic whose sire Any Given Saturday finished second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) as a 2-year-old. On the 2007 Kentucky Derby Trail, Any Given Saturday was a competitive colt that won the Sam Davis Stakes, finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).

Real Quiet, the damsire of Show Some Magic, won the 1998 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and lost the Belmont Stakes (G1) by a nose to Victory Gallop.

Trainer Todd Pletcher sends the coupled entry of Lawn Man and Shanghai Bobby to the starting gate for Starlight Racing as the 7-2 morning line third choice.

Lawn Man comes into the Hopeful off of a 4½-length maiden win at Saratoga on July 28 and in his last race Shanghai Bobby won the 5½-furlong Track Barron Stakes at Belmont Park on June 27.

Lawn Man has a pretty decent pedigree with Flatter as his sire and classic winner Go For Gin as the damsire.

Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of Shanghai Bobby, was competitive as a two year old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes, Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.

Jockey Rosie Napravnik had the mount on Shanghai Bobby in his previous two starts and she retains the mount for today’s race.

Good luck with your picks!