Like
most horseracing fans, I was shocked and saddened to hear the news that I’ll Have Another had an injured tendon and was
scratched from the Belmont Stakes (G1). But owner J. Paul Reddam did what was
best for the welfare of I’ll Have Another and that’s what matters the most.
I
thought that I’ll Have Another had a good chance to win the Belmont and I
talked about his chances to win the Triple Crown on the blog of my book publisher Trafalgar
Square Books.
Now
that I’ll Have Another is out the Belmont appears to be wide open and I’m going
to go with a lot of bombs in my picks.
Historically,
descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line have dominated the Belmont since
the early 1990’s.
Thunder Gulch won the
Belmont Stakes in 1995 and of the 17 races since then, 13 of those races (76%) have
been won by Mr. Prospector sire-line descendants: Ruler On Ice (2011), Drosselmeyer (2010), Summer Bird (2009), Jazil (2006), Afleet Alex (2005), Birdstone (2004), Empire Maker (2003), Point Given (2001), Commendable (2000), Lemon Drop Kid (1999), Victory Gallop (1998), and Editor’s Note (1996).
Hansel won the
Belmont in 1991. Conquistador Cielo won the
Belmont in 1982.
I’ll
Have Another is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and was my top
pick before his scratch. Other Belmont entries that are sire-line descendants
of Mr. Prospector are: Dullahan (5-1), Street Life (12-1), Atigun 30-1), Optimizer (20-1) and Guyana Star Dweej (50-1).
Of
those horses, I like Dullahan, Street Life and Guyana Star Dweej and I’ll use
them in my wagers with Union Rags (6-1) and Paynter (8-1).
In
my Kentucky Derby blog Dullahan was
one of my top picks and I believe he has a good chance in the Belmont too.
In his debut as a 3-year-old, Dullahan was a one-length
runner up to Howe Great in the Palm
Beach Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. A month later, Dullahan won the Blue
Grass Stakes at Keeneland defeating the 2-year-old Eclipse Champion Hansen by
1¼-lengths. He followed that win with a third-place finish in the Kentucky
Derby.
If Dullahan repeats his Derby performance, I expect him to
finish in one of the top three spots.
Since his maiden debut in January, Street Life has shown
steady improvement in each race except for his off-the-board finish in the Wood
Memorial Stakes (G1). I like the way that he closed from dead last in a
10-horse field to get third-place honors in the Peter Pan Stakes (G2) at
Belmont on May 12.
Street Life earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort
and another move forward will make him very competitive in the Belmont.
And with the Derby winners Street Sense as his sire and Grindstone as his damsire, Street Life
should have the stamina necessary to be competitive in the Belmont. His
tail-female line is also reinforced with the 2,000 Guineas winner Known Fact and Epsom Derby winner Roberto.
Guyana
Star Dweej has never raced farther than 8½-furlongs and a win would definitely be
a big surprise. But he is a Mr. Prospector sire-line descendant and has the
breeding to factor in the exotics. His sire Eddington finished fourth in the Belmont
and damsire Pine Bluff finished third.
When
he's on his game, jockey Kent Desormeaux, who picked up the mount on Guyana
Star Dweej after losing his mount on Dullahan, has one of the best records in
Triple Crown races. In 2009, Desormeaux won the Belmont with Summer Bird and
finished second aboard Medaglia d’Oro in 2002 and Real
Quiet
in 1998.
Guyana
Star Dweej has a decent racing record with one win and five second-place
finishes in nine starts and at 50-1 odds I’m willing to use him in the exotic
wagers and I’ll also have a small win bet on him.
I
didn’t like Union Rags in the Derby but I think that he could run better in the
Belmont.
The
switch by trainer Michael Matz to jockey Johnny Velazquez is a plus in my
opinion as he has a good record in the Belmont since his second-place finish
aboard Bluegrass Cat in 2006.
In
2007, Johnny Velazquez won the Belmont on board Rags To Riches. He followed that with a third-place finish on Ready’s
Echo in 2008,
a second-place finish on Dunkirk in 2009 and another
second-place finish on Fly Down in 2010.
It
remains to be seen how well the son of Dixie
Union will
handle the 12-furlong distance of the Belmont, but Union Rags has some stamina
influence in the distaff pedigree and the tail-female line is the same female
line that produced the Belmont winner Colonial Affair – Glad
Rags is the
third dam for both horses.
Paynter
has become the buzz horse and, no doubt, he is a talented young colt. I’m not
sold on him for the win but he could be a factor in the exotics.
I’ll
have a small win bet on Guyana Star Dweej as well as a more substantial win, place
bet on Street Life.
Here’s
some exotic combinations I like using Street Life #1, Union Rags #3, Dullahan
#5, Guyana Star Dweej #8 and Paynter #9:
Exacta: 1-5-8/1-3-5-8-9
Trifecta: 1-5-8/1-3-5-8-9/3-8-9
Superfecta: 1-5-8/1-3-5-8-9/3-8-9/3-8-9
