Bourbon Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Ken McPeek will send Here Comes Frazier to the starting gate today as the 7-2 morning line lukewarm favorite in the 21^st running of the $150,000 Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland racetrack.

Here Comes Frazier has never run in a route race or a stakes race but his impressive 7-length win in his maiden debut must have been enough of a confidence booster for McPeek to enter him in today’s race.

McPeek is good at bringing along the speedy types like Noble’s Promise who won the 2009 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity and he must have a lot of confidence in Here Comes Frazier too.

Badge of Silver, the sire of Here Comes Frazier, was a good middle-distance runner who raced from the age of three to six. Some important races he won include the 8½-furlong Risen Star Stakes (G3) and the 9-furlong Hal's Hope Handicap (G3), New Orleans Handicap (G2) and San Gabriel Handicap (G2).

Caller I D, the damsire of Here Comes Frazier, is mostly a sprint influence. As a 2-year-old, he won the Sanford Stakes (G3), Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G2).

The tail-female line of Here Comes Frazier traces back to the fourth dam Monarchy who was a Matriarch of the Turf and the stamina influence of Spectacular Bid, Nijinsky and Princequillo reinforce the female line.

Trainer Richard Mandella also appears to have a lot of confidence in Smart Ellis (8-1) who ships in from California to run in the Bourbon. Jockey Victor Espinoza also ships in from California to make his second start on Smart Ellis.

Smart Ellis finished seventh in his maiden debut and was beaten by 17 lengths but made a big move forward in his next outing to break his maiden by one length going a mile in 1:36.83. That’s a decent time and the 86 Brisnet Speed Figure he earned in his last race is competitive with this group.

Smarty Jones, the sire of Smart Ellis, was a precocious 2-year-old who went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1). El Gran Senor, the damsire of Smart Ellis, won the English 2,000 Guineas (G1) as well as the Irish Derby (G1). He also finished second in the Epsom Derby (G1) and was a Champion 3-year-old colt in England and Ireland.

If Smart Ellis continues to improve, he should be competitive.

Lucky Chappy (6-1) was one of my picks in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity but he was scratched from that race so that Team Valor International and trainer Graham Motion could run him in the Bourbon.

Lucky Chappy ships in from Italy where he had two wins and a second-place finish in three starts on the turf. Lucky Chappy has a stamina-oriented pedigree and should be able to handle the Futurity with no problem.

High Chaparral, the sire of Lucky Chappy, won the Epsom and Irish Derbies and was the 2002 and 2003 Eclipse Champion Male Turf Horse. Distant Relative, the damsire of Lucky Chappy, was a multiple Group winner in England, Ireland and France and was a Champion 3-year-old colt in Ireland. Germane, the dam of Lucky Chappy, was a Group 3 winner of the 7-furlong Rockfel Stakes in England and placed in several other Group races.

A long shot I like is Animal Spirits (12-1) who is stepping up to stakes competition but has already run at this distance, finishing second by a head in his maiden debut.

Arch, the sire of Animal Spirits, won the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and sired the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame and Arravale – the 2006 Canadian Horse of the Year. Personal Ensign, the second dam of Animal Spirits, was one of the all-time greats who was a multiple graded stakes winner, undefeated in 13 starts.

So, if Animal Spirits continues to improve off of his maiden win, he should be competitive.

Dixiana Breeders' Futurity Roundup

Trainer Thomas Amoss will be trying for his first win in the $400,000 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) when he sends Shared Property to the post today as the lukewarm 4-1 favorite. With two also eligible colts entered in the race, a full field of 14 will go to the post in what appears to be a wide-open edition of the Breeders’ Futurity.

Undefeated in two starts, Shared Property comes into the race with a one-length win in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes (G3) and should be competitive if he repeats the form of his previous races.

However, three horses I like better are Optimizer (8-1), Lucky Chappy (8-1) and Take Charge Indy (5-1).

In his last race, the With Anticipation Stakes (G2), Optimizer only lost by a half-length to State Of Play who was my favorite pick in that race. Jockey Robby Albarado lost the whip at the sixteenths pole but Optimizer continued to make up ground on the winner.

In his maiden debut win, Optimizer trailed at the back of the 10-horse field for most of the race, went six wide on the far turn, and showed an impressive burst of speed in the final furlong to win by a neck.

Optimizer covered the 8½-furlongs in a time of 1:42.67 which is the fastest of all the other horses entered in today’s race. If Optimizer repeats the form of his last two races he will be competitive.

Optimizer also has a good pedigree.

English Channel, the sire of Optimizer, was the 2007 Eclipse Champion Turf Male and a multiple Graded Stakes winner who was competitive from 10 to 12-furlongs. Belmont Stakes winner and Sire of Sires A. P. Indy is the damsire of Optimizer.

Indy Pick, the dam of Optimizer, was not stakes placed but had had 2-1-1 record in 6 starts. Fantastic Find, the second dam of Optimizer, won the Grade 1 Hempstead Handicap and placed in several other Graded Stakes races.

Blitey, the third dam of Optimizer, and fourth dam Lady Pitt are Reines-de-Course Mares (Queens of the turf).

Team Valor International ships Lucky Chappy in from Italy where he had two wins and a second-place finish in three starts on the turf. (Lucky Chappy is also cross entered in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) which be run on Sunday.)

Lucky Chappy has a stamina-oriented pedigree and should be able to handle the Futurity with no problem. High Chaparral, the sire of Lucky Chappy, won the Epsom and Irish Derbies and was the 2002 and 2003 Eclipse Champion Male Turf Horse.

Distant Relative, the sire of Lucky Chappy, was a multiple Group winner in England, Ireland and France and was a Champion 3-year-old colt in Ireland. Germane, the dam of Lucky Chappy, was a Group 3 winner of the 7-furlong Rockfel Stakes in England and placed in several other Group races.

Take Charge Indy was an impressive 6½-length winner in his maiden debut and finished second to Shared Property in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3). Take Charge Indy shifted in on the final furlong of his last race but adds blinkers to today’s race.

Take Charge Indy should do better as the races get longer and the stretch out to 8½-furlongs suite him well. His sire, A. P. Indy, was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred and his grandsire, Seattle Slew, was a Triple Crown winner.

Take Charge Lady, the dam of Take Charge Indy, was a multiple graded-stakes winner at the age of two and three. Take Charge Lady won the Alcibiades Stakes (G2), Spinster Stakes (G1), Ashland Stakes (G1), Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), Silverbulletday Stakes (G3) and Dogwood Stakes (G3). At the age of four, Take Charge Lady won the Spinster Stakes (G1) and Arlington Matron Handicap (G3).

Good luck with your picks!

Champagne Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Michael Matz will be looking for his first win in the $300,000 Champagne Stakes (G1) when he sends Union Rags to the post Saturday as the 7-5 prohibitive favorite.

Undefeated in two starts, Union Rags comes into the race with a 7¼-length win in the slop in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) at Saratoga Race Course on August 15. Union Rags covered the 6½-furlongs in 1:18.33 and earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.

If Union Rags repeats the form of his previous two races, he will be tough in the Champagne Stakes. A bullet work on October 1 and Union Rags should be ready to run a good race.

A young colt that I’m especially intrigued with in this race is the 5-2 morning line second choice Alpha.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Alpha posted an impressive 6-length win in his maiden debut at Saratoga on September 3. Alpha covered the 7-furlongs in 1:23.97 and earned a 96 speed figure for that performance.

Alpha is taking a big step up in class but a bullet work out on October 3 indicates that he could be ready to run a good race. And he has the breeding to win the Champagne Stakes.

One never knows if these two-year-olds will live up to their breeding. But Alpha has one of the best pedigrees I’ve seen on this year’s juvenile trail. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, an index I use to measure classic potential, is a very good 97.5 – a score of 100 or more is excellent.

Union Rags may be too fast and a mile too short for Alpha. But, win or lose, If Alpha lives up to his breeding he may have the potential to become a serious Kentucky Derby candidate.

Bernardini, the sire of Alpha, was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred as were his grandsire, A. P. Indy and great grandsire Seattle Slew. Nijinsky, the damsire of Alpha, and Northern Dancer were also Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. Alydar, the sire of the second dam, would have been a Classic Champion Thoroughbred if it had not been for Affirmed.

Munnaya, the dam of Alpha, raced in England and won the 11-furlong Lingfield Oaks Trail Stakes and finished third in the 10-furlong Pretty Polly Stakes. The remaining four dams on the tail-female line – Hiaam, Kamar, Square Angel and Nangela – were all stakes winners. Kamar was the 1979 Canadian Champion three-year-old filly and Square Angel was the 1973 Champion.

I’ve seen horses with good pedigrees who failed to transfer their breeding to the racetrack. However, if Alpha’s debut is an indication of what is to come and if he lives up to his breeding, he should continue to move forward and I look for him to be competitive in the Champagne.

Only time will tell.

Takes The Gold (6-1) is stepping up in class but appears to an improving colt and could be a factor in the Champagne. Takes The Gold finished third in his debut to Currency Swap and comes into the race with a 3¼-length win going a mile at Belmont Park on September 10.

Invocation (20-1) has improved his performance with every race he’s run and finished second to Alpha in his last outing. If Invocation continues to move forward he could be competitive.

Book Update, Weekend Stakes Races

The Keeneland yearling sale was fantastic. I saw a lot of good horses and got a lot of work done with Thomas Herding Technique founder Kerry Thomas on the book we co-authored.

Since my return, I’ve been very busy working on the book and expect to be busy for the next few weeks working on wrapping it up and getting it to the publisher for publishing. While we were at the sale, the publisher sent us a mockup of what the book cover may look like – it’s a good looking cover.

If you’re like me, when I start working on a project and the creativity is flowing, it’s difficult to break away and start on a new one. Nevertheless, the call to the post kept calling me so I took a break to take a very brief look at the stakes races this weekend.


Norfolk Stakes

It at appears that the 8½-furlong Norfolk Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Downs could determine the juvenile leader on the west coast and the two most likely to claim that honor are even odds favorite Drill and Creative Cause (6-5). I think that both are nice colts but of the two I like Drill a little more.

Here’s what I said of Drill in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) writeup:

Lawyer Ron, the sire of Drill, won three races in 10 starts as a two-year-old including a 10-length romp in an one mile, 70-yard allowance race at Louisiana Downs and an 8½-length romp in the one mile Diamond Joe Stakes at Evangeline Downs.

The dam and grand dam of Drill were not that productive on the racetrack, but the third dam Water Dance won the Twilight Tear Stakes and placed in the Long Look Handicap (G2), Beaugay Handicap, Hannah Dustin Handicap and Miss Liberty Handicap.

Luiana, the fourth dam of Drill, was a Reine-de-Course producer of seven winners including Prayers'N Promises, winner of the Matron Stakes (G1) and Spinaway Stakes (G1), as well as the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Little Current.

Banquet Bell, the fifth dam of Drill, was a Matriarch of the Turf and the dam Chateaugay, winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).

Here’s what I said about Creative Cause:

Giant’s Causeway, the sire of Creative Cause, was undefeated in three starts as a two-year-old in Europe including a 2-length win in both the 7-furlong Futurity Stakes (Group 3) and the 7-furlong Prix de la Salamandre (Group 1).
Storm Cat, the grandsire of Creative Cause, is well known for siring precocious two-year-olds and he is the grandsire of Georgie Boy – winner of the 2007 Del Mar Futurity Stakes (G1). Storm Cat is also the damsire of 2006 Futurity winner Horse Greeley.

Dream Of Summer, the dam of Creative Cause, was a multiple graded stakes winner who was competitive in sprint and route races up to 8½-furlongs and earned over $1 million during her racing career.

Only time will tell if these two colts live up to their breeding and one steps up to claim the title of two-year-old leader on the west coast.

Pilgrim Stakes

State Of Play (2-1) was my favorite in the With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and I also like him in the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park. Here’s what I said about State Of Play in the With Anticipation Stakes writeup:

State Of Play has good speed and he should be able to easily stretch out to 8½-furlongs. I like his pedigree too.

His sire, War Front, also sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2) and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

War Front also sired The Factor, a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).

Procida, the damsire of State Of Play, was a Group 1 winner of the 7-furlong Prix de la Foret before he was shipped to America where he won the 1984 edition of the Hollywood Derby (G1) at 8½-furlongs.

State of Play also has a lot of good influence from the tail-female line which traces back to the fifth dam Bourtai – a Matriarch of the Turf. Bourtai is ranked third on Roger Lyons of Pedigree Matters Top 40 Dam Lines of SW’s, 1995 to Present.

Alluvial, the third dam of State Of Play, is also the dam of 1979 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Coastal and the grand dam Aptitude who finished second in the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).

Dancing Detente, the second dam of State Of Play, was an unraced dam of eight winnners. Valeta, the dam of State Of Play, won three races at the age of four and is also the dam of four winners.

Two other horses I like on pedigree and racing form are Fantastic Song (5-1) and Knock Rock (6-1).

With Lemon Drop Kid and Fantastic Shirl in the first generation of the pedigree and Kingmambo, Charming Lassie, Fantastic Light and Lady Shirl in the second generation, Fantastic Song has a nice pedigree and could be tough in the Pilgrim Stakes.

Knock Rock deserves honorable mention because I like his competitive spirit. He’s a bit erratic, but if he can get it together he’s competitive.

Nashua Stakes

I don’t have a good feel yet of the classic potential for any horses running in the Nashua Stakes (G2) at Belmont on Sunday and the distance of 6-furlongs will not add any clarity.

She Digs Me, the 2-1 morning line favorite, should be tough if he repeats the form of his previous races. Here’s what I wrote about She Digs Me in my Sapling Stakes (G3) writeup:

Henny Hughes, the sire of She Digs Me, was a precocious two-year-old who won the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and Tremont Stakes and finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1), Champagne Stakes (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Hennessy, the grandsire of She Digs Me, also won the Hopeful Stakes (G1), Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (G2) and the Sapling Stakes (G3).

Two long shots that could be a factor are Jagati (10-1) who finished second to She Digs Me (G3) and Trinniberg (10-1) who finished second to Currency Swap in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

I’m really looking forward to watching the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Sunday as it has always been one of my favorites.

Masked Marvel (20-1) and Treasure Beach (10-1) were two long shots I liked along with Pour Moi in my Epsom Derby racing roundup and I like them along with the outstanding filly Sarafina (5-1) in the Arc too.

I really like their pedigree and their racing form as well. Here’s what I wrote about them in the Epsom Derby writeup:

The type of breeding pattern in the pedigree of Pour Moi where all the stallions on the tail-female line, the damsire line, and the sire line forms what I refer to as a “W” pattern and it’s a powerful influence I look for in the pedigree.

Treasure Beach has the same “W” pattern in his pedigree and he’s the only horse that has raced 12-furlongs. …His sire, Galileo, won the 2001 Epsom Derby and sired New Approach, winner of the 2008 Epsom Derby. Mark Of Esteem, the damsire of Treasure Beach, won the 1996 edition of the 2000 Guineas Stakes (G1) and he is the sire of Sir Percy winner of the 2006 Epsom Derby.

Masked Marvel finished fifth in the Classic Trial (G3) in April and came back in May to win the Iba Cocked Hat Stakes by three lengths. …His sire is Montjeu and his damsire, Mark Of Esteem, is the same damsire of Treasure Beach and a descendant of one of the most important sire lines of Nasrullah.

One of the most impressive influences in the pedigree of Masked Marvel comes from the legendary Classic Champion Thoroughbred and German Derby winner Acatenango – three-time Horse of The Year in Germany and champion sire in 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2001.

Acatenango is also the damsire of Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and when he is present in the pedigree, there are several generations of Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. I followed the line back to the foundation Stallion Darley Arabian and found that 11 of the stallions going back 15 generations were Classic Champion Thoroughbreds – that’s pretty impressive.

Here’s a look at the sire line of Acatenango. The Classic Champion Thoroughbreds are in all capital letters:

ACATENANGO/SURUMU/LITERAT/BIRKHAHN/ALCHEMIST/HEROLD/Dark Ronald/Bay Ronald/Hampton/LORD CLIFDEN/NEWMINSTER/TOUCHSTONE/Camel/WHALEBONE/WAXY/Pot-8-O's/Eclipse/Marske/Squirt/Bartlet’s Childers/Darley Arabian

Like Masked Marvel and Treasure Beach, Sarafina also has the same “W” pattern in her pedigree and that is a powerful influence that I look for in the pedigree of horses with classic potential.

In nine lifetime starts, Sarafina has never been out of the money and the racing form of her last three starts has been superb with a win in each of those races.