If I were a gambling man, I’d bet that Bob Baffert knows about the importance of Emotional Conformation in the equine athlete. (More about this later.)
My friend Kerry M. Thomas is the founder of The Thomas Herding Technique and creator of Emotional Conformation which is a profiling tool he uses to measure the behavioral and emotional aptitude of his client’s horses.
Here’s how Kerry describes Emotional Conformation in a book we co-authored:
When buying, selling, training or breeding, all horses are graded on Conformation which is an analysis of the overall physical horse. In addition to physical conformation, I grade a horse’s Emotional Conformation which is a term I use to describe the psychology of the horse and I use it to analyze the behavioral dynamics, as well as the social tendencies, that impact the potential of the individual horse. Because the overall mental capacity and aptitude of each horse is made up of both seen and unseen emergent properties and tendencies of behavior, the mental preparedness of a horse, to react and interact with environmental and social dynamics, becomes a vital indicator of its ability and a source of important information for anyone working with horses.
What prompted my reasoning about Baffert was inspired by recent comments at Frank Mitchell’s “bloodstock in the bluegrass” blog about the merits of Lookin At Lucky as a stallion prospect. Of course, Baffert and his horsemanship were also part of that discussion.
I’ve never personally seen Lookin At Lucky or met Mr. Baffert and I have no knowledge of his daily operation. Neither has Kerry seen Lookin At Lucky but he briefly met Baffert last year when he went to California to profile some horses. However, it is difficult to truly know someone in such a short time.
So neither Kerry, nor I, can attest to the horsemanship of Baffert but he evidently has a pretty good knowledge of horses. Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbies, five Preakness Stakes and one Belmont Stakes, mostly with horses that had some sort of imperfection or conformation flaw, and Lookin At Lucky is the most recent example.
Mitchell aptly stated it in his blog post:
From the knees up, Lookin at Lucky is an outstanding animal by every measurement and proof of ability. But looking at his legs from the knees down, I am highly impressed by trainer Bob Baffert’s nerve and by the finesse of his training program for this horse.
Because Lookin at Lucky ain’t perfect.
Despite his flaws, Lookin At Lucky became a Classic Champion Thoroughbred in winning the 2010 Preakness Stakes. In addition, Looking At Lucky won four grade one stakes and three grade two stakes races en route to earning an Eclipse Champion Male award as a 2- and 3-year-old, becoming the only horse to achieve that honor since Spectacular Bid.
Not too shabby for an imperfect horse.
Lookin At Lucky, along with Super Saver, was one of my top picks in the Kentucky Derby and in my blog post I wrote he had the “will to win” despite the fact that he had rough trips in several of his races. If I could see that quality in Looking At Lucky by watching his races on television, surely Baffert saw it, too, in the sales ring.
The late Federico Tesio, a world-renowned owner, breeder and trainer of thoroughbred racehorses, was keenly aware of the importance of Emotional Conformation in the equine athlete and he spent hour upon hour at auctions studying the physical and Emotional Conformation of the horses he planned to purchase.
In his book, Tesio, Master of Matings, noted author and bloodstock agent Ken McLean wrote:
His first-hand knowledge of the peculiar characteristics of each individual in his stable, and their subsequent progress on the racetrack enabled Tesio to be in a unique position to judge whether or not his reasoning behind each mating was accurate or otherwise.
Indeed, Tesio knew how to embrace the magic within the spirit of the horse. He was known for his ability to purchase horses with unfashionable pedigrees for his bloodstock program and turn their produce into champion Thoroughbreds. Tesio knew that a horse “wins with his character” and that, in addition to pedigrees and bloodlines, Emotional Conformation is the final piece of the breeding puzzle needed to produce a champion.
And Tesio was good at that. He bred and trained and incredible 22 Italiano Derby winners. His champions Nearco and Ribot are legends of the turf.
Like Tesio, Tom Smith also knew how to embrace the magic within the spirit of the horse. Smith knew about the importance of Emotional Conformation in the equine athlete and that is how he turned a down-and-out, neglected, and ragged horse by the name of Seabiscuit into a champion thoroughbred and the hero of a nation.
Smith had seen a spark of magic in the “Biscuit” when, while scouting horses for his new boss Charles Howard, he watched Seabiscuit win an allowance race at Suffolk Downs. Smith knew, then, that he had to have Seabiscuit for his stable.
What impressed Smith the most about Seabiscuit had nothing to do with his racing record, pitiful as it was, or his conformation. Seabiscuit was a knobby-kneed, short, blunt, ragged, loser mostly, who had a wild thrashing and flailing of his left foreleg as he raced around the track.
What impressed Smith the most was the confidence that Seabiscuit displayed as he walked around the Suffolk Downs paddock. Smith knew the difference between a commoner and a King among horses. Seabiscuit had the confident look, the Emotional Conformation of a natural-born herd leader.
Smith knew that look. He had been around horses all of his life and he had seen that look of confidence in other horses.
Of course, while Baffert and Smith have not been as successful as Tesio, it seems they also were able to achieve success from their selection of unfashionable horses. While the term Emotional Conformation was not part of their vocabulary, it was an important factor in how they select[ed] their Thoroughbreds.
I bet that Baffert knows about the importance of Emotional Conformation in the equine athlete.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Borderland Derby Racing Roundup
It looks like the California shippers Special Kid and Fusa Code could be the main competition in today’s edition of the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park.
Trainer Doug O’Neill sends Special Kid to the starting gate as the lukewarm 5-2 morning line favorite and Steve Asmussen needs a win from Fusa Code (6-1) to offset his recent setback with Tapizar.
Both horses met in their last race earlier this month at Santa Anita Park with Special Kid earning a nose victory over Red Sharp Humor while Fusa Code trailed a half-length back in third-place. In two previous meetings, Special Kid has performed better than Fusa Code.
Both Special Kid and Fusa Code are the only two horses in the 10-horse field to ever run 8 ½ - furlongs and both are descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line which has produced five Borderland Derby winners since its inauguration in 2001.
Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid is the sire of Special Kid and Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus is the sire of Fusa Code. Of the two, I like the pedigree of Fusa Code the most but he has yet to break his maiden after four previous attempts.
Of the local talent, I really like Mason’s Pegasus (8-1) who closed strongly in a long stretch drive to win a 6-furlong sprint on January 30 at Sunland Park. Mason’s Pegasus is also a descendant of Mr. Prospector and with Fusaichi Pegasus as his sire and Maria’s Mon as the damsire, the stretch out to 8 ½ -furlongs should be more to his liking.
A long shot I like is What The Toccet (20-1) who comes into this race with two off-the-board finishes but he’s improved his performance with each race.
Trainer Shannon adds blinkers and a recent bullet work out – the only one fired by any of the ten horses – could indicate that What The Toccet is ready to make a big move forward.
And with Toccet as his sire and Coronado’s Quest as the damsire, What the Toccet could develop into a good middle-distance runner.
Toccet was a good middle-distance runner who won the Champagne Stakes (G1), Hollywood Futurity (G1), Remsen Stakes (G2) and Laurel Futurity (G3). Coronado’s Quest won the Remsen Stakes (G2), Buick Haskell Invitational Handicap (G1), Travers Stakes (G1), Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and Dwyer Stakes (G2).
Good luck with your picks!
Trainer Doug O’Neill sends Special Kid to the starting gate as the lukewarm 5-2 morning line favorite and Steve Asmussen needs a win from Fusa Code (6-1) to offset his recent setback with Tapizar.
Both horses met in their last race earlier this month at Santa Anita Park with Special Kid earning a nose victory over Red Sharp Humor while Fusa Code trailed a half-length back in third-place. In two previous meetings, Special Kid has performed better than Fusa Code.
Both Special Kid and Fusa Code are the only two horses in the 10-horse field to ever run 8 ½ - furlongs and both are descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line which has produced five Borderland Derby winners since its inauguration in 2001.
Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid is the sire of Special Kid and Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus is the sire of Fusa Code. Of the two, I like the pedigree of Fusa Code the most but he has yet to break his maiden after four previous attempts.
Of the local talent, I really like Mason’s Pegasus (8-1) who closed strongly in a long stretch drive to win a 6-furlong sprint on January 30 at Sunland Park. Mason’s Pegasus is also a descendant of Mr. Prospector and with Fusaichi Pegasus as his sire and Maria’s Mon as the damsire, the stretch out to 8 ½ -furlongs should be more to his liking.
A long shot I like is What The Toccet (20-1) who comes into this race with two off-the-board finishes but he’s improved his performance with each race.
Trainer Shannon adds blinkers and a recent bullet work out – the only one fired by any of the ten horses – could indicate that What The Toccet is ready to make a big move forward.
And with Toccet as his sire and Coronado’s Quest as the damsire, What the Toccet could develop into a good middle-distance runner.
Toccet was a good middle-distance runner who won the Champagne Stakes (G1), Hollywood Futurity (G1), Remsen Stakes (G2) and Laurel Futurity (G3). Coronado’s Quest won the Remsen Stakes (G2), Buick Haskell Invitational Handicap (G1), Travers Stakes (G1), Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) and Dwyer Stakes (G2).
Good luck with your picks!
Friday, February 25, 2011
Hutcheson Stakes Racing Roundup
Trainer Todd Pletcher has been to the winner’s circle of the Hutcheson Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park a record six times, winning the race five years in a row from 2003 to 2007. Jockey John Valezquez has had the mount in five of those six races.
Tomorrow Pletcher sends Valezquez and Travelin Man, the 5-2 lukewarm morning line favorite, to the starting gate in the 58th running of the $150,000 guaranteed stakes race.
Last month at Gulfstream, Travelin Man romped to a 7 ¼ - length victory in his maiden debut covering 6-furlongs in 1:09.09, earning a 105 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.
Despite this being only the second start for Travelin Man, Pletcher must be confident about his potential to run a good race and stretch out to 7-furlongs. His sire, Trippi, was a 7-furlong specialist who won the Vosburgh Stakes (G1), Riva Ridge Stakes (G2), Tom Fool Handicap (G2) and Swale Stakes (G3). Trippi even had enough in the tank to stretch out to win the 9-furlong Flamingo Stakes (G3).
Trippi is also the sire of potential Kentucky Derby contender Gourmet Dinner, winner of the 7-furlong Florida Stallion Affirmed Stakes and the 8 ½ - furlong Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3).
Eight of the 10 horses entered in the Hutcheson have won on the lead and it will be interesting to see how this race finally shapes up.
Three long shots I like are Crossbow (5-1), Madman Diaries (6-1) and Manicero (12-1).
Crossbow, the morning line third-choice, has never been off the board in three starts and he’s already proven at 7-furlongs. In his last race, Crossbow vied for the lead with Sovereign Default and prevailed in the final strides for the win covering 7-furlongs in 1:22.86.
That time is competitive with previous editions of the Hutcheson and if Crossbow improves or repeats that performance he should be a factor.
Trainer Wesley Ward drops Madman Diaries back to a sprint and sends him to the starting gate with a 3-2-0 record in six starts. In his only off the board finish, Madman Diaries finished fourth to the promising Pluck and Soldat in the 8-furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) last November at Churchill Downs.
Madman Diaries has not raced in over three months. But, despite the layoff, he has been working out good and two back-to-back bullet work outs indicates that he may be ready to run a good race.
Manicero comes into the Hutcheson with four straight wins in five starts. In his maiden debut last October, Manicero finished third but was disqualifed and placed fourth.
Manicero is also proven at 7-furlongs with an 8 ¼ - length win in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder and a one-half length win in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Good luck with your picks!
Tomorrow Pletcher sends Valezquez and Travelin Man, the 5-2 lukewarm morning line favorite, to the starting gate in the 58th running of the $150,000 guaranteed stakes race.
Last month at Gulfstream, Travelin Man romped to a 7 ¼ - length victory in his maiden debut covering 6-furlongs in 1:09.09, earning a 105 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.
Despite this being only the second start for Travelin Man, Pletcher must be confident about his potential to run a good race and stretch out to 7-furlongs. His sire, Trippi, was a 7-furlong specialist who won the Vosburgh Stakes (G1), Riva Ridge Stakes (G2), Tom Fool Handicap (G2) and Swale Stakes (G3). Trippi even had enough in the tank to stretch out to win the 9-furlong Flamingo Stakes (G3).
Trippi is also the sire of potential Kentucky Derby contender Gourmet Dinner, winner of the 7-furlong Florida Stallion Affirmed Stakes and the 8 ½ - furlong Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3).
Eight of the 10 horses entered in the Hutcheson have won on the lead and it will be interesting to see how this race finally shapes up.
Three long shots I like are Crossbow (5-1), Madman Diaries (6-1) and Manicero (12-1).
Crossbow, the morning line third-choice, has never been off the board in three starts and he’s already proven at 7-furlongs. In his last race, Crossbow vied for the lead with Sovereign Default and prevailed in the final strides for the win covering 7-furlongs in 1:22.86.
That time is competitive with previous editions of the Hutcheson and if Crossbow improves or repeats that performance he should be a factor.
Trainer Wesley Ward drops Madman Diaries back to a sprint and sends him to the starting gate with a 3-2-0 record in six starts. In his only off the board finish, Madman Diaries finished fourth to the promising Pluck and Soldat in the 8-furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) last November at Churchill Downs.
Madman Diaries has not raced in over three months. But, despite the layoff, he has been working out good and two back-to-back bullet work outs indicates that he may be ready to run a good race.
Manicero comes into the Hutcheson with four straight wins in five starts. In his maiden debut last October, Manicero finished third but was disqualifed and placed fourth.
Manicero is also proven at 7-furlongs with an 8 ¼ - length win in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder and a one-half length win in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.
Good luck with your picks!
Fountain Of Youth Stakes Roundup
To Honor And Serve is a young colt I wrote about in my 2011 Kentucky Derby Outlook and tomorrow he will make his 3-year-old debut as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 65th running of the $400,000 Fountain Of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
As a 2-year-old, To Honor And Serve was impressive posting a 3-1-0 record in four starts which included easy wins in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2) last November at Aqueduct.
One never knows if these young colts will move forward as 3-year-olds, but To Honor And Serve is in good hands with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott who recorded his first classic win last year with Drosselmeyer in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
And if the training schedule is an indicator of whether To Honor And Serve is moving forward, he has had three sharp works in February and two of those have been bullet work outs which is the first time he as fired bullets.
Bernardini, winner of the 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1), is the sire of To Honor And Serve whose grandsire is the Sire of Sires and 1992 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner A.P. Indy. To Honor And Serve is a descendant of the Bold Ruler sire line which has produced four Fountain Of Youth Stakes winners since 1990 – A.P. Indy sired two of those winners.
Soldat, the 2-1 morning line second-choice, looked impressive winning his 3-year-old debut by 10 ¾ - lengths last month at Gulfstream. Soldat led from gate-to-wire over a sloppy track and covered the 9-furlongs in 1:49.22, earning a 108 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.
Soldat has proven to be a versatile colt winning on turf and dirt. In six starts, Soldat has never finished worse than second and he comes into this race with a 2-4-0 record.
Soldat’s sire, War Front, is off to a good start and he also is the sire of The Factor, the speedy winner of the San Vicente Stakes (G2).
A sharp work out on February 19 indicates that Soldat may be ready to run another good race.
Two long shots I like are Bowman’s Causeway (20-1) and Racing Aptitude (30-1).
Breaking his maiden on his third attempt, Bowman’s Causeway looked good earlier this month at Gulstream posting a one-length win in a 9-furlong maiden special weight race. Bowman’s Causeway tracked the leaders in fourth place for most of the race until he angled out in the stretch and rallied for the win.
Bowman’s Causeway earned a 101 speed figure for that effort and I look for him to improve off of that performance.
Bowman’s Causeway picks up French jockey Julien Leparoux who switches his mount from Casper’s Touch (6-1), who’s also entered in this race, and teams up with fellow countryman, trainer Patrick Biancone. Leparoux is sixth in overall jockey standings.
Bowman’s Causeway is a descendant of the Storm Cat branch of the Northern Dancer sire line. Since 1990, the Northern Dancer sire line has produced the most Fountain Of Youth winners at seven with the Storm Cat line producing four of those winners.
Giant’s Causeway, the sire of Bowman’s Causeway, sired the Fountain Of Youth winners Eskendereya (2010) and First Samurai (2006).
Racing Aptitude gets an honorable mention here because his sharp 5-furlong work out on February 19 was much better than the work outs posted by Casper’s Touch and Shackleford who both worked that same day.
To date, Racing Aptitude has not shown much in the racing department but he picks up jockey Jose Lezcano who has previously ridden To Honor And Serve and is ranked fourth in overall jockey standings for Gulstream Park.
His trainer Howard Tesher has a 26 percent success rate switching from turf to dirt and Racing Aptitude has the breeding to be a factor. But so far, he has not lived up to that breeding. His sire, Aptitude, finished second in the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1) and his grandsire is A.P. Indy.
Whether I use Racing Aptitude will depend on how he looks in the post parade. If he looks good, he may be worth a small wager.
As a 2-year-old, To Honor And Serve was impressive posting a 3-1-0 record in four starts which included easy wins in the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2) last November at Aqueduct.
One never knows if these young colts will move forward as 3-year-olds, but To Honor And Serve is in good hands with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott who recorded his first classic win last year with Drosselmeyer in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
And if the training schedule is an indicator of whether To Honor And Serve is moving forward, he has had three sharp works in February and two of those have been bullet work outs which is the first time he as fired bullets.
Bernardini, winner of the 2006 Preakness Stakes (G1), is the sire of To Honor And Serve whose grandsire is the Sire of Sires and 1992 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner A.P. Indy. To Honor And Serve is a descendant of the Bold Ruler sire line which has produced four Fountain Of Youth Stakes winners since 1990 – A.P. Indy sired two of those winners.
Soldat, the 2-1 morning line second-choice, looked impressive winning his 3-year-old debut by 10 ¾ - lengths last month at Gulfstream. Soldat led from gate-to-wire over a sloppy track and covered the 9-furlongs in 1:49.22, earning a 108 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.
Soldat has proven to be a versatile colt winning on turf and dirt. In six starts, Soldat has never finished worse than second and he comes into this race with a 2-4-0 record.
Soldat’s sire, War Front, is off to a good start and he also is the sire of The Factor, the speedy winner of the San Vicente Stakes (G2).
A sharp work out on February 19 indicates that Soldat may be ready to run another good race.
Two long shots I like are Bowman’s Causeway (20-1) and Racing Aptitude (30-1).
Breaking his maiden on his third attempt, Bowman’s Causeway looked good earlier this month at Gulstream posting a one-length win in a 9-furlong maiden special weight race. Bowman’s Causeway tracked the leaders in fourth place for most of the race until he angled out in the stretch and rallied for the win.
Bowman’s Causeway earned a 101 speed figure for that effort and I look for him to improve off of that performance.
Bowman’s Causeway picks up French jockey Julien Leparoux who switches his mount from Casper’s Touch (6-1), who’s also entered in this race, and teams up with fellow countryman, trainer Patrick Biancone. Leparoux is sixth in overall jockey standings.
Bowman’s Causeway is a descendant of the Storm Cat branch of the Northern Dancer sire line. Since 1990, the Northern Dancer sire line has produced the most Fountain Of Youth winners at seven with the Storm Cat line producing four of those winners.
Giant’s Causeway, the sire of Bowman’s Causeway, sired the Fountain Of Youth winners Eskendereya (2010) and First Samurai (2006).
Racing Aptitude gets an honorable mention here because his sharp 5-furlong work out on February 19 was much better than the work outs posted by Casper’s Touch and Shackleford who both worked that same day.
To date, Racing Aptitude has not shown much in the racing department but he picks up jockey Jose Lezcano who has previously ridden To Honor And Serve and is ranked fourth in overall jockey standings for Gulstream Park.
His trainer Howard Tesher has a 26 percent success rate switching from turf to dirt and Racing Aptitude has the breeding to be a factor. But so far, he has not lived up to that breeding. His sire, Aptitude, finished second in the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1) and his grandsire is A.P. Indy.
Whether I use Racing Aptitude will depend on how he looks in the post parade. If he looks good, he may be worth a small wager.
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Southwest Stakes Racing Roundup
Elite Alex is a young colt I became aware of sometime in late August or early September of last year while researching pedigrees. He was not in training at that time but I made a note to keep watch for him. Tomorrow Elite Alex makes his stakes debut as the 4-1 morning line second-choice in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park.
This will be the third start for Elite Alex who made his 3-year-old debut last month in a one mile optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park. He was not entered for a claim in that race and despite a six-month layoff Elite Alex was installed as the 1.20 to 1 favorite.
Elite Alex missed the break and trailed in last place, seven lengths off the pace, until the half when he made his move and closed ground to narrowly lose by a head. Overall, I was pleased with his run which was not too shabby considering he had been laid off for six months and missed the break at the start of the race.
The pedigree of Elite Alex does not qualify as WOW, nevertheless, it is pretty good and I am looking forward to see how well he performs on the Derby trail. His sire, Afleet Alex, won the 2005 Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). His damsire is the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled.
Elite Alex is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and that line has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, 11 Preakness winners and 13 Belmont winners since 1990. That line has also produced eight Southwest winners since 1990.
Elite Alex is trained by Tim Ritchey who also trained Afleet Alex.
Of all the horses in the field, J P’s Gusto has the most stakes racing experience and although he has not raced in over two months, he is the prohibitive 9-5 morning line favorite. I have some reservations about him making his 3-year-old debut at a track where he has never raced before and starting for a new trainer who has a poor win percentage at Oaklawn.
If I use J P’s Gusto in my wagers it will be most likely in the bottom of the exotics.
Two long shots I like are Yankee Passion (8-1) and Archarcharch (10-1).
This will be the fourth start for Yankee Passion who easily won his 3-year-old debut for trainer Larry Jones last month at Oaklawn. Yankee Passion has never run in a route race, but with Yankee Gentleman as his sire and Pleasant Colony as the damsire, the Southwest should be well within his range.
His Brisnet Speed Figures have steadily improved with every race and a bullet work out February 16 indicates that Yankee Passion should be ready to run a good race.
I’m willing to overlook the performance Archarcharch who finished fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes last month at Oaklawn. I believe Archarcharch is a much better horse than that race would indicate but for some reason, maybe it was the fog, Archarcharch did not run his best that day.
With Arch, the sire of Breeders’ Cup Champion Blame, as his sire, Woodman as his damsire and Nureyev the sire of his second dam, the Southwest should be well with the range of Archarcharch and I look for him to perform better in his second start of the year.
And a bullet work out February 14, the only one he’s fired since training at Oaklawn, indicates that Archarcharch could be ready to run a good race.
This will be the third start for Elite Alex who made his 3-year-old debut last month in a one mile optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park. He was not entered for a claim in that race and despite a six-month layoff Elite Alex was installed as the 1.20 to 1 favorite.
Elite Alex missed the break and trailed in last place, seven lengths off the pace, until the half when he made his move and closed ground to narrowly lose by a head. Overall, I was pleased with his run which was not too shabby considering he had been laid off for six months and missed the break at the start of the race.
The pedigree of Elite Alex does not qualify as WOW, nevertheless, it is pretty good and I am looking forward to see how well he performs on the Derby trail. His sire, Afleet Alex, won the 2005 Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). His damsire is the 1990 Kentucky Derby winner Unbridled.
Elite Alex is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and that line has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, 11 Preakness winners and 13 Belmont winners since 1990. That line has also produced eight Southwest winners since 1990.
Elite Alex is trained by Tim Ritchey who also trained Afleet Alex.
Of all the horses in the field, J P’s Gusto has the most stakes racing experience and although he has not raced in over two months, he is the prohibitive 9-5 morning line favorite. I have some reservations about him making his 3-year-old debut at a track where he has never raced before and starting for a new trainer who has a poor win percentage at Oaklawn.
If I use J P’s Gusto in my wagers it will be most likely in the bottom of the exotics.
Two long shots I like are Yankee Passion (8-1) and Archarcharch (10-1).
This will be the fourth start for Yankee Passion who easily won his 3-year-old debut for trainer Larry Jones last month at Oaklawn. Yankee Passion has never run in a route race, but with Yankee Gentleman as his sire and Pleasant Colony as the damsire, the Southwest should be well within his range.
His Brisnet Speed Figures have steadily improved with every race and a bullet work out February 16 indicates that Yankee Passion should be ready to run a good race.
I’m willing to overlook the performance Archarcharch who finished fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes last month at Oaklawn. I believe Archarcharch is a much better horse than that race would indicate but for some reason, maybe it was the fog, Archarcharch did not run his best that day.
With Arch, the sire of Breeders’ Cup Champion Blame, as his sire, Woodman as his damsire and Nureyev the sire of his second dam, the Southwest should be well with the range of Archarcharch and I look for him to perform better in his second start of the year.
And a bullet work out February 14, the only one he’s fired since training at Oaklawn, indicates that Archarcharch could be ready to run a good race.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
San Vicente Stakes Racing Roundup
Premier Pegasus (8-1) and Sway Away (4-1) are two young colts I wrote about in my 2011 Kentucky Derby Outlook and tomorrow they will make their 3-year-old debut in the 70th running of the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park.
Undefeated in three starts, Premier Pegasus is the more accomplished of the two with a win in the Jack Goodman Stakes and the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3).
One never knows if these young colts will move forward from their 2-year-old season but if Premier Pegasus lives up to his breeding, he should continue to advance on the Kentucky Derby trail.
His sire is the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Fusaichi Pegasus and his damsire, Summer Squall, won the 1990 Preakness Stakes (G1).
Premier Pegasus is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and that line has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, 11 Preakness winners and 13 Belmont winners since 1990. That line has also produced six San Vicente winners since 1990.
Premier Pegasus’ dam, Squall Linda finished second in the Monrovia Handicap (G3) and his second dam, Glimmer Glass, won the Vogue Stakes. His fifth dam, Source Sucree is a Reines-des-Course mare and the dam of the important sire Turn-To. His tail-female line descends from Queen Bertha (Family 1-w) and that line produced the 1960 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Celtic Ash.
It has been over six months since Sway Away last raced and he comes into the San Vicente with a second-place finish last October in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar. Despite the layoff, Sway Away has been training regularly since January and he has fired five bullet work outs with two of those at Santa Anita.
Sway Away is also a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and if he lives up to his breeding, he should continue to improve as a 3-year-old.
His sire is the gutsy Afleet Alex who nearly went down in the stretch of the 2005 Preakness Stakes but recovered to win by 4 ¾ - lengths and went on three weeks later to win the Belmont Stakes by 7-lengths.
Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew is the damsire of Sway Away and Summer Squall is the sire of his second dam Golden Gale. In the first five generations of the tail-female line, Golden Gale is the most accomplished racer with a win in the Beaumont Stakes (G2) and the Opa Locka Stakes.
In Sway Away’s tail-female seventh generation is the outstanding broodmare Late Date who is ranked 12th on Roger Lyons of Pedigree Matters Top 40 Dam Lines of SW’s, 1995 to Present.
Sway Away’s tail-female line descends from Remembrancer Mare (Family 8-f) and that line produced the Belmont winners Rags To Riches (2007), Jazil (2006), Birdstone (2004) and Blue Larkspur (1929).
Speed is the impression that comes to mind when looking at the pedigree of The Factor who makes his 3-year-old debut as the 8-5 morning line favorite and “buzz” horse coming into the San Vicente.
This will be only the third start for The Factor who turned in a brilliant performance December 26 at Santa Anita while setting a new track record for 6-furlongs in a time of 1:06.98.
The Factor definitely has speed and it remains to be seen just how far he wants to run.
War Front, the sire of The Factor, was a champion sprinter but he has a Derby contender in on this year’s trail in the Graded Stakes winner Soldat who’s proven to be a decent middle-distance runner and last month he won a 9-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream in time of 1:49.22.
Danzig, the grandsire of The Factor, sired Danzig Connection (1986 Belmont Stakes), Pine Bluff (1992 Preakness Stakes) and Dance Smartly (1991 Canadian Triple Crown winner); and his sire line, mostly through his son Danehill, has produced numerous Classic Champion Thoroughbreds worldwide.
Miswaki, the damsire of The Factor, was mostly a sprinter but he sired Urban Sea – winner of the 1993 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
The Factor is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and since 1990 that line has produced three Kentucky Derby winners, seven Preakness winners and three Belmont winners. Since 1990, the Northern Dancer sire line has produced five San Vicente winners.
In the tail-female line, The Factor is a descendant of Bonnie Doon (Family 10-c) and that line produced Sarava (2002 Belmont) and Don Enrique (1907 Preakness).
If The Factor continues to move forward, he could become a good middle-distance runner and only time will tell if he can have an impact on the classics.
A sharp bullet work out February 14 at Hollywood Park has The Factor ready to run another good race and he could be tough to beat in the San Vicente.
Those are the three colts I’m primarily interested in. The 7-furlongs should easily be in the scope of Premier Pegasus and The Factor but it may be a bit short for Sway Away who, if he lives up to his breeding, should get better as the races get longer.
Good luck!
Undefeated in three starts, Premier Pegasus is the more accomplished of the two with a win in the Jack Goodman Stakes and the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3).
One never knows if these young colts will move forward from their 2-year-old season but if Premier Pegasus lives up to his breeding, he should continue to advance on the Kentucky Derby trail.
His sire is the 2000 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Fusaichi Pegasus and his damsire, Summer Squall, won the 1990 Preakness Stakes (G1).
Premier Pegasus is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and that line has produced 10 Kentucky Derby winners, 11 Preakness winners and 13 Belmont winners since 1990. That line has also produced six San Vicente winners since 1990.
Premier Pegasus’ dam, Squall Linda finished second in the Monrovia Handicap (G3) and his second dam, Glimmer Glass, won the Vogue Stakes. His fifth dam, Source Sucree is a Reines-des-Course mare and the dam of the important sire Turn-To. His tail-female line descends from Queen Bertha (Family 1-w) and that line produced the 1960 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Celtic Ash.
It has been over six months since Sway Away last raced and he comes into the San Vicente with a second-place finish last October in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar. Despite the layoff, Sway Away has been training regularly since January and he has fired five bullet work outs with two of those at Santa Anita.
Sway Away is also a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and if he lives up to his breeding, he should continue to improve as a 3-year-old.
His sire is the gutsy Afleet Alex who nearly went down in the stretch of the 2005 Preakness Stakes but recovered to win by 4 ¾ - lengths and went on three weeks later to win the Belmont Stakes by 7-lengths.
Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew is the damsire of Sway Away and Summer Squall is the sire of his second dam Golden Gale. In the first five generations of the tail-female line, Golden Gale is the most accomplished racer with a win in the Beaumont Stakes (G2) and the Opa Locka Stakes.
In Sway Away’s tail-female seventh generation is the outstanding broodmare Late Date who is ranked 12th on Roger Lyons of Pedigree Matters Top 40 Dam Lines of SW’s, 1995 to Present.
Sway Away’s tail-female line descends from Remembrancer Mare (Family 8-f) and that line produced the Belmont winners Rags To Riches (2007), Jazil (2006), Birdstone (2004) and Blue Larkspur (1929).
Speed is the impression that comes to mind when looking at the pedigree of The Factor who makes his 3-year-old debut as the 8-5 morning line favorite and “buzz” horse coming into the San Vicente.
This will be only the third start for The Factor who turned in a brilliant performance December 26 at Santa Anita while setting a new track record for 6-furlongs in a time of 1:06.98.
The Factor definitely has speed and it remains to be seen just how far he wants to run.
War Front, the sire of The Factor, was a champion sprinter but he has a Derby contender in on this year’s trail in the Graded Stakes winner Soldat who’s proven to be a decent middle-distance runner and last month he won a 9-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream in time of 1:49.22.
Danzig, the grandsire of The Factor, sired Danzig Connection (1986 Belmont Stakes), Pine Bluff (1992 Preakness Stakes) and Dance Smartly (1991 Canadian Triple Crown winner); and his sire line, mostly through his son Danehill, has produced numerous Classic Champion Thoroughbreds worldwide.
Miswaki, the damsire of The Factor, was mostly a sprinter but he sired Urban Sea – winner of the 1993 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
The Factor is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and since 1990 that line has produced three Kentucky Derby winners, seven Preakness winners and three Belmont winners. Since 1990, the Northern Dancer sire line has produced five San Vicente winners.
In the tail-female line, The Factor is a descendant of Bonnie Doon (Family 10-c) and that line produced Sarava (2002 Belmont) and Don Enrique (1907 Preakness).
If The Factor continues to move forward, he could become a good middle-distance runner and only time will tell if he can have an impact on the classics.
A sharp bullet work out February 14 at Hollywood Park has The Factor ready to run another good race and he could be tough to beat in the San Vicente.
Those are the three colts I’m primarily interested in. The 7-furlongs should easily be in the scope of Premier Pegasus and The Factor but it may be a bit short for Sway Away who, if he lives up to his breeding, should get better as the races get longer.
Good luck!
Friday, February 18, 2011
Risen Star Stakes Racing Roundup
Trained by Kenny McPeek, Rogue Romance heads a field ten 3-year-old thoroughbreds Saturday as the lukewarm 3-1 morning line favorite in the 38th running of the $300,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course.
This will be the first start for Rogue Romance as a 3-year-old, who comes into the race off of a three-month layoff. But despite the layoff, McPeek knows how to get a young horse ready for the rigors of the Kentucky Derby trail. Last year he had the competitive Noble’s Promise and Rogue Romance, with a 2-0-1 record in four starts, appears to be a similar type colt.
In the Bourbon Stakes (G3) last October, Rogue Romance was steadied early and angled six-wide on the far turn but ran down the leaders late to win by 2 ½ - lengths. A month later in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Rogue Romance was clearly third-best to the likes of eventual Eclipse Champion Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova.
Whether Rogue Romance can win off of the layoff remains to be seen but I look for him to be competitive.
Three long shots I like are Machen (6-1), Santiva (6-1) and Decisive Moment (9-2).
Undefeated in two starts at the Fair Grounds with a combined winning margin of 10 ½ - lengths, Machen is the buzz horse and most likely will drop below his 6-1 morning line odds.
This will be Machen’s first stakes race. But what he lacks in experience may be compensated by his heart and “will to win” as he demonstrated those traits in his last race, patiently waiting behind a wall of horses until a hole opened at the quarter pole, and he charged through to win going away by 5-lengths.
That’s the kind of grit and determination I like to see in a young colt and if he continues to move forward he should go a long way on the Derby trail.
In four starts, Santiva has never been off the board and he makes his 3-year-old debut coming into the Risen Star off of a two-month layoff.
Santiva also appears to be a competitive colt with a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last October and a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs last November, defeating Astrology by one-half length.
One never knows if these young colts will move forward as a 3-year-old but a recent bullet work out on February 12 has peaked my interest in Santiva. He’s never fired a bullet in any of his work outs and that could be an indication that he is ready to run a good race.
I’ll be curious to see how he looks in the post parade.
Decisive Moment comes into the Risen Star with the most experience in stakes competition as four of his six starts have been stakes races including a second-place finish to Gourmet Dinner in the Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3).
Since his second-place finish in the Delta Jackpot, Decisive Moment appears to be moving forward. He won his 3-year-old debut last month as the favorite in the 8-furlong Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs – winning by 3 ½ - lengths. Here’s the chart summary:
DECISIVE MOMENT broke sharp from the inside to gain a clear early margin, remained clear up the backstretch, responded when challenged entering the drive, opened a clear margin deep stretch and finished with something left.
I like it that he finished going away and a recent bullet work out February 4 indicates that he could be ready to run another good race. With his front-running style, if Decisive Moment gets a clean break to take the lead, he could be very competitive.
This will be the first start for Rogue Romance as a 3-year-old, who comes into the race off of a three-month layoff. But despite the layoff, McPeek knows how to get a young horse ready for the rigors of the Kentucky Derby trail. Last year he had the competitive Noble’s Promise and Rogue Romance, with a 2-0-1 record in four starts, appears to be a similar type colt.
In the Bourbon Stakes (G3) last October, Rogue Romance was steadied early and angled six-wide on the far turn but ran down the leaders late to win by 2 ½ - lengths. A month later in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Rogue Romance was clearly third-best to the likes of eventual Eclipse Champion Uncle Mo and Boys At Tosconova.
Whether Rogue Romance can win off of the layoff remains to be seen but I look for him to be competitive.
Three long shots I like are Machen (6-1), Santiva (6-1) and Decisive Moment (9-2).
Undefeated in two starts at the Fair Grounds with a combined winning margin of 10 ½ - lengths, Machen is the buzz horse and most likely will drop below his 6-1 morning line odds.
This will be Machen’s first stakes race. But what he lacks in experience may be compensated by his heart and “will to win” as he demonstrated those traits in his last race, patiently waiting behind a wall of horses until a hole opened at the quarter pole, and he charged through to win going away by 5-lengths.
That’s the kind of grit and determination I like to see in a young colt and if he continues to move forward he should go a long way on the Derby trail.
In four starts, Santiva has never been off the board and he makes his 3-year-old debut coming into the Risen Star off of a two-month layoff.
Santiva also appears to be a competitive colt with a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last October and a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs last November, defeating Astrology by one-half length.
One never knows if these young colts will move forward as a 3-year-old but a recent bullet work out on February 12 has peaked my interest in Santiva. He’s never fired a bullet in any of his work outs and that could be an indication that he is ready to run a good race.
I’ll be curious to see how he looks in the post parade.
Decisive Moment comes into the Risen Star with the most experience in stakes competition as four of his six starts have been stakes races including a second-place finish to Gourmet Dinner in the Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3).
Since his second-place finish in the Delta Jackpot, Decisive Moment appears to be moving forward. He won his 3-year-old debut last month as the favorite in the 8-furlong Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs – winning by 3 ½ - lengths. Here’s the chart summary:
DECISIVE MOMENT broke sharp from the inside to gain a clear early margin, remained clear up the backstretch, responded when challenged entering the drive, opened a clear margin deep stretch and finished with something left.
I like it that he finished going away and a recent bullet work out February 4 indicates that he could be ready to run another good race. With his front-running style, if Decisive Moment gets a clean break to take the lead, he could be very competitive.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Derby Trail Stakes Roundup: Sam F. Davis, Robert B. Lewis, El Camino Real Derby
Brethren is a young colt that I’ve been interested in for some time now (see my December 23 blog) and Saturday he makes his 3-year-old debut as the 5-2 morning line favorite of the $225,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.
As a 2-year-old, Brethren was undefeated in two starts and he comes into the race off of a two-month layoff. Brethren will start from post 10 and this will be his first run in stakes competition.
Brethren is a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and he is also a close relative to Cal Nation who won his maiden debut by an impressive 7 ¾ - lengths last weekend at Gulfstream Park.
If Brethren lives up to his breeding, he will be tough to beat.
Beamer (5-1) picks up jockey Leandro Goncalves who rode him to a win over the Tampa Bay Downs track last December. In his first start as a 3-year-old, Beamer finished third in the slop at Gulfstream Park and he is eligible to improve in the second start off of the layoff.
Beamer has a pretty decent pedigree and he should improve as a 3-year-old. Trainer Carl Nafzger knows how to get horses ready for big races. His Brisnet Speed Figures have improved with every race and a bullet work out January 31 indicates that Beamer could be ready to run a good race.
Washington’s Rules (9-2) also has a decent pedigree and looks to be improving with each race. He broke his maiden and won his 3-year-old debut in just his second start on January 22. Washington’s Rules earned a 95 speed figure for that race and should improve off of that effort.
A sharp bullet work out February 5 and Washington’s Rules appears to be ready to run a good race.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Tapizar heads a field of eight 3-year-old thoroughbreds as the prohibitive 4-5 favorite of the $250,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park.
With two back-to-back wins and a dazzling performance in the Sham Stakes (G3) earning a 103 speed figure for that effort, Tapizar looms large as the horse to beat.
Comma To The Top is the 5-2 morning line second-choice but he is cross entered in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and I would be surprised if he was not scratched from the Lewis.
Two long shots I like are Thirtyfirststreet (10-1) and Wegner (10-1).
Thirtyfirststreet has never run in a route race and makes his 3-year-old debut coming into the race off of a 48 day layoff. Despite the layoff, Thirtyfirststreet has a nice pedigree and should be able to get the 9-furlongs.
In his last race, Wegner took the early and led gate-to-wire finally breaking his maiden in his fourth race. Jockey Rafael Bejarano was on board for that ride and retains the mount for this race.
Wegner will have to step up his game to beat Tapizar but if he breaks clean to take the lead he could be competitive.
El Camino Real Derby
Undefeated in his last five starts, Comma To The Top is the prohibitive 6-5 favorite in the 29th running of the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields.
Comma To The Top is definitely on a roll and while the 9-furlongs may be stretching his pedigree some, he should be competitive against this group of 3-year-olds.
Positive Response (7-2) comes into the race with an impressive 4-0-1 record in six starts. He definitely likes racing at Golden Gate Fields as three out of his last four starts were first-place finishes over the Golden Gate surface with a 6-length romp in the Gold Rush Stakes and a 2 ¾ - length win in the California Derby.
A sharp bullet work out February 6 and Positive Response appears to be ready to run another good race.
As a 2-year-old, Brethren was undefeated in two starts and he comes into the race off of a two-month layoff. Brethren will start from post 10 and this will be his first run in stakes competition.
Brethren is a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and he is also a close relative to Cal Nation who won his maiden debut by an impressive 7 ¾ - lengths last weekend at Gulfstream Park.
If Brethren lives up to his breeding, he will be tough to beat.
Beamer (5-1) picks up jockey Leandro Goncalves who rode him to a win over the Tampa Bay Downs track last December. In his first start as a 3-year-old, Beamer finished third in the slop at Gulfstream Park and he is eligible to improve in the second start off of the layoff.
Beamer has a pretty decent pedigree and he should improve as a 3-year-old. Trainer Carl Nafzger knows how to get horses ready for big races. His Brisnet Speed Figures have improved with every race and a bullet work out January 31 indicates that Beamer could be ready to run a good race.
Washington’s Rules (9-2) also has a decent pedigree and looks to be improving with each race. He broke his maiden and won his 3-year-old debut in just his second start on January 22. Washington’s Rules earned a 95 speed figure for that race and should improve off of that effort.
A sharp bullet work out February 5 and Washington’s Rules appears to be ready to run a good race.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes
Tapizar heads a field of eight 3-year-old thoroughbreds as the prohibitive 4-5 favorite of the $250,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park.
With two back-to-back wins and a dazzling performance in the Sham Stakes (G3) earning a 103 speed figure for that effort, Tapizar looms large as the horse to beat.
Comma To The Top is the 5-2 morning line second-choice but he is cross entered in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and I would be surprised if he was not scratched from the Lewis.
Two long shots I like are Thirtyfirststreet (10-1) and Wegner (10-1).
Thirtyfirststreet has never run in a route race and makes his 3-year-old debut coming into the race off of a 48 day layoff. Despite the layoff, Thirtyfirststreet has a nice pedigree and should be able to get the 9-furlongs.
In his last race, Wegner took the early and led gate-to-wire finally breaking his maiden in his fourth race. Jockey Rafael Bejarano was on board for that ride and retains the mount for this race.
Wegner will have to step up his game to beat Tapizar but if he breaks clean to take the lead he could be competitive.
El Camino Real Derby
Undefeated in his last five starts, Comma To The Top is the prohibitive 6-5 favorite in the 29th running of the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields.
Comma To The Top is definitely on a roll and while the 9-furlongs may be stretching his pedigree some, he should be competitive against this group of 3-year-olds.
Positive Response (7-2) comes into the race with an impressive 4-0-1 record in six starts. He definitely likes racing at Golden Gate Fields as three out of his last four starts were first-place finishes over the Golden Gate surface with a 6-length romp in the Gold Rush Stakes and a 2 ¾ - length win in the California Derby.
A sharp bullet work out February 6 and Positive Response appears to be ready to run another good race.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Whirlaway Stakes Racing Roundup
Rescind The Trade heads a field of seven 3-year-old thoroughbreds today as the 2-1 morning line favorite of the $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct.
Undefeated in two starts, Rescind The Trade steps up into stakes competition for the first time and comes into the Whirlaway with a narrow victory last December over Pants On Fire in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct. Pants On Fire went on to compete in stakes races with a third-place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes and a second-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds.
In his last race, Rescind The Trade earned 102 Brisnet Speed Figure which is the highest of all the horses entered in the race. A sharp work out January 30 over the Aqueduct surface and Rescind The Trade appears to be ready to run another good race.
J J’s Lucky Train is the 5-2 morning line second-choice and appears to be competitive in the Whirlaway.
In his last race, The Count Fleet Stakes, J J’s Lucky Train was carried three-wide on the first turn but recovered and took the lead at the top of the stretch and grudgingly relinquished the lead in the final strides to Monzon who won by one length.
In five starts, J J’s Lucky Train has only been off to board once and that was last September in the Sapling Stakes (G3) at Monmouth Park. Not counting his off the board finish, J J’s Lucky Train has three first-place finishes and one second-place in lifetime starts.
The Brisnet figures for his last three races have been in the high 90’s and with his front running style, J J’s Lucky Train will be tough to beat.
A long shot I like is Preachintothedevil (4-1) who comes into the race with a third-place finish in the Damon Runyon Stakes and a first-place in the Champagneforashley Stakes. His speed figures have improved with each race and I like that Junior Alvarado has been his only jockey.
The only bad race Preachintothedevil has run was in the Damon Runyon when he was carried four-wide on the far turn and finished in third place.
A bullet work out on January 11 and Preachintothedevil may be ready to run another good race.
Undefeated in two starts, Rescind The Trade steps up into stakes competition for the first time and comes into the Whirlaway with a narrow victory last December over Pants On Fire in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct. Pants On Fire went on to compete in stakes races with a third-place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes and a second-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds.
In his last race, Rescind The Trade earned 102 Brisnet Speed Figure which is the highest of all the horses entered in the race. A sharp work out January 30 over the Aqueduct surface and Rescind The Trade appears to be ready to run another good race.
J J’s Lucky Train is the 5-2 morning line second-choice and appears to be competitive in the Whirlaway.
In his last race, The Count Fleet Stakes, J J’s Lucky Train was carried three-wide on the first turn but recovered and took the lead at the top of the stretch and grudgingly relinquished the lead in the final strides to Monzon who won by one length.
In five starts, J J’s Lucky Train has only been off to board once and that was last September in the Sapling Stakes (G3) at Monmouth Park. Not counting his off the board finish, J J’s Lucky Train has three first-place finishes and one second-place in lifetime starts.
The Brisnet figures for his last three races have been in the high 90’s and with his front running style, J J’s Lucky Train will be tough to beat.
A long shot I like is Preachintothedevil (4-1) who comes into the race with a third-place finish in the Damon Runyon Stakes and a first-place in the Champagneforashley Stakes. His speed figures have improved with each race and I like that Junior Alvarado has been his only jockey.
The only bad race Preachintothedevil has run was in the Damon Runyon when he was carried four-wide on the far turn and finished in third place.
A bullet work out on January 11 and Preachintothedevil may be ready to run another good race.
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