Friday, February 11, 2011

Derby Trail Stakes Roundup: Sam F. Davis, Robert B. Lewis, El Camino Real Derby

Brethren is a young colt that I’ve been interested in for some time now (see my December 23 blog) and Saturday he makes his 3-year-old debut as the 5-2 morning line favorite of the $225,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.

As a 2-year-old, Brethren was undefeated in two starts and he comes into the race off of a two-month layoff. Brethren will start from post 10 and this will be his first run in stakes competition.

Brethren is a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and he is also a close relative to Cal Nation who won his maiden debut by an impressive 7 ¾ - lengths last weekend at Gulfstream Park.

If Brethren lives up to his breeding, he will be tough to beat.

Beamer (5-1) picks up jockey Leandro Goncalves who rode him to a win over the Tampa Bay Downs track last December. In his first start as a 3-year-old, Beamer finished third in the slop at Gulfstream Park and he is eligible to improve in the second start off of the layoff.

Beamer has a pretty decent pedigree and he should improve as a 3-year-old. Trainer Carl Nafzger knows how to get horses ready for big races. His Brisnet Speed Figures have improved with every race and a bullet work out January 31 indicates that Beamer could be ready to run a good race.

Washington’s Rules (9-2) also has a decent pedigree and looks to be improving with each race. He broke his maiden and won his 3-year-old debut in just his second start on January 22. Washington’s Rules earned a 95 speed figure for that race and should improve off of that effort.

A sharp bullet work out February 5 and Washington’s Rules appears to be ready to run a good race.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Tapizar heads a field of eight 3-year-old thoroughbreds as the prohibitive 4-5 favorite of the $250,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park.

With two back-to-back wins and a dazzling performance in the Sham Stakes (G3) earning a 103 speed figure for that effort, Tapizar looms large as the horse to beat.

Comma To The Top is the 5-2 morning line second-choice but he is cross entered in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and I would be surprised if he was not scratched from the Lewis.

Two long shots I like are Thirtyfirststreet (10-1) and Wegner (10-1).

Thirtyfirststreet has never run in a route race and makes his 3-year-old debut coming into the race off of a 48 day layoff. Despite the layoff, Thirtyfirststreet has a nice pedigree and should be able to get the 9-furlongs.

In his last race, Wegner took the early and led gate-to-wire finally breaking his maiden in his fourth race. Jockey Rafael Bejarano was on board for that ride and retains the mount for this race.

Wegner will have to step up his game to beat Tapizar but if he breaks clean to take the lead he could be competitive.

El Camino Real Derby

Undefeated in his last five starts, Comma To The Top is the prohibitive 6-5 favorite in the 29th running of the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields.

Comma To The Top is definitely on a roll and while the 9-furlongs may be stretching his pedigree some, he should be competitive against this group of 3-year-olds.

Positive Response (7-2) comes into the race with an impressive 4-0-1 record in six starts. He definitely likes racing at Golden Gate Fields as three out of his last four starts were first-place finishes over the Golden Gate surface with a 6-length romp in the Gold Rush Stakes and a 2 ¾ - length win in the California Derby.

A sharp bullet work out February 6 and Positive Response appears to be ready to run another good race.

No comments:

Post a Comment