There's been a lot of talk in the news lately about the two outstanding fillies: Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

Here's a look back at one of my favorite posts I made about Zarkava in October 2008 on the DRF FormBlog hosted by Dan Illman.

FormBlog October 06, 2008
Peppers Pride, Weekend Beyers

johnnyz, slewofdamascus,

Here are some more thoughts on Zarkava.

Slew, I read that Daily Racing Form story and I thought that the Aga Khan’s comment about the success of Zarakava was very telling:

"Zarkava and Dalakhani [his 2003 Arc winner] are both products of the base blood developed by Marcel Boussac and my grandfather [the previous Aga Khan]."

Marcel Boussac and the previous Aga Khan were two of the all-time great breeders of thoroughbreds and the pedigree of Zarkava is filled with their breeding genius reaching as far back as 11 generations. Their breeding results are too complicated to discuss in this space, but, in a nutshell, I believe that the Aga Khan was referring to the enormous influence of the broodmare Mumtaz Mahal in the pedigree of Zarkava. Of course, there are other important influences in Zarkava’s pedigree but Mumtaz Mahal is the most prominent and the current Aga Khan still relies heavily on that influence in his stud to this day.

Mumtaz Mahal was a foundation mare of the Aga Khan stud and one of the most influential broodmares of the 20th Century. Almost half of Zarkava’s ancestors (12) in the fifth generation trace back to Mumtaz Mahal in some manner.

Mumtaz Mahal was the dam of the influential mares Mumtaz Begum and Mah Mahal and the second dam of the influential sires Nasrullah and Mahmoud. She was also the third dam of the influential sire Royal Charger. Here’s a good link about Mumtaz Mahal from Thoroughbred Heritage:

http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/MumtazMahal.html

Also, Sequence, the second dam of Mr. Prospector who was Zarkava’s great grand sire, is also a descendent of Frizette - another very influential broodmare of the 20th Century and a foundation mare of Marcel Boussac’s stud. Here’s a good link about Frizette:

http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Frizette.html

The practice of the Aga Khan stud breeding the best to the best and breeding from generation to generation as many stallions and mares that are descendents of Mumtaz Mahal has been an important key to the success of the stud operation and Zarkava. Many of the ancestors in Zarkava’s first five generations are champion thoroughbreds and they have also produced numerous champion thoroughbreds as well.

Kahyasi, the broodmare sire of Zarkava, also had a tremendous impact as a sire on the success of the Aga Khan stud. Four of the eight ancestors in Kahyasi’s third generation are descendents of Mumtaz Mahal.

In addition, I believe that the success of Zarkava can also be attributed to the fact that she is descended from the sire line of Mr. Prospector which has been one of the most influential sire lines of the 20th Century.

Gone West is the grand sire of Zarkava and he is, perhaps, in addition to Fappiano, one of the greatest sons of Mr. Prospector to have an influence on the classic races. Gone West and his line have produced numerous Classic Champions as well as Graded Stakes winners:

2,000 Guineas (1993) = Zafonic-Gone West
Breeders’ Cup Mile (1996, 1998) = Da Hoss-Gone West
Belmont (2000) = Commendable-Gone West
Breeders’ Cup Turf (2003) = Johar-Gone West. Johar dead-heated with High Chaparral.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (2003) = Cajun Beat-Grand Slam-Gone West
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (2004) = Speightstown-Gone West
Kentucky Derby (2004) = Smarty Jones-Elusive Quality-Gone West
Preakness (2004) = Smarty Jones-Elusive Quality-Gone West
Filly & Mare Sprint (2007) = Maryfield-Elusive Quality-Gone West
Juvenile Turf (2007) = Nownownow-Whywhywhy-Mr. Greeley-Gone West
English 1,000 Guineas (2007) = Finsceal Beo-Mr. Greeley-Gone West
Irish 1,000 Guineas (2007) = Finsceal Beo-Mr. Greeley-Gone West
Prix de Diane (2008) = Zarkava-Zamindar-Gone West
French 1,000 Guineas (2008) = Zarkava-Zamindar-Gone West
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2008) = Zarkava-Zamindar-Gone West
Gone West is also the grand sire of the promising Raven’s Pass who recently defeated Henrythenavigtor in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

The moto of the Aga Khan stud is “Success Breeds Success” and that is definitely evident in the spectacular Zarkava.

For more information about Zarkava and the Aga Khan, here’s a link to their website:

http://www.agakhanstuds.com/history/ch1.asp

Posted by: Calvin Carter on October 06, 2008 at 09:58 PM

Here’s another pedigree note about inbreeding that I thought you would find interesting. I’ve recently been reading “Horse Breeding In Theory And Practice” by Burchard Von Oettingen which was published in 1909 by Sampson Low, Marston & Co.

In his chapter on Inbreeding on page 318, Oettingen lists the number of male and female winners of the Derby, St. Leger and Oaks arranged according to free generations of inbreeding. Oettingen concludes:

“1. On the whole the most of the classical winners are found among the 4 free generations, next to which follow the 3 and 5 free generations.
“2. Up to the middle of the past century the 4 free generations predominate also. …
“3. From the middle of the past century up to now the whole picture has been changed in favour of a more removed inbreeding. Here the 5 free generations appear to be the most favourable only, after which follow the more removed inbreedings with 6 free generations, and finally that with 7 free generations.
“4. Lastly, it is worthy of note that the winners of two classical races have been more numerously represented with the more removed inbreedings."

I found Oettingen's summary very fascinating that the farther removed inbreeding is from the foal, the better chance you have of producing a quality Thoroughbred.

Although unscientific, I conducted my own survey of modern-day thoroughbreds. The following list illustrates the inbreeding found in the Blood-Horse Top 100 Thoroughbreds of the 20th Century.

1. Man o' War = inbreeding in 5th remove
2. Secretariat = no inbreeding in 5 generations
3. Citation inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
4. Kelso = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
5. Count Fleet = inbreeding in 4th remove
6. Dr. Fager = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
7. Native Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
8. Forego = inbreeding in 5th remove
9. Seattle Slew = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
10. Spectacular Bid = inbreeding in 3rd and 5th remove
11. Tom Fool = inbreeding in 5th remove
12. Affirmed = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
13. War Admiral = no inbreeding in 5 generations
14. Buckpasser = inbreeding in 4th remove
15. Colin = no inbreeding in 5 generations
16. Damascus = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
17. Round Table = inbreeding in 5th remove
18. Cigar = no inbreeding in 5 generations
19. Bold Ruler = inbreeding in 5th remove
20. Swaps = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
21. Equipoise = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
22. Phar Lap = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
23. John Henry = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
24. Nashua = no inbreeding in 5 generations
25. Seabiscuit = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th generations
26. Whirlaway = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
27. Alydar = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
28. Gallant Fox = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
29. Exterminator = inbreeding in 5th remove
30. Sysonby = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
31. Sunday Silence = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
32. Skip Away = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
33. Assault = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
34. Easy Goer = inbreeding 5th remove
35. Ruffian = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
36. Gallant Man = inbreeding 3rd and 4th remove
37. Discovery = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
38. Challedon = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
39. Armed = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
40. Busher = inbreeding 3rd and 4th remove
41. Stymie = inbreeding 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
42. Alysheba = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
43. Northern Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
44. Ack Ack = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
45. Gallorette = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
46. Majestic Prince = inbreeding in 5th remove
47. Coaltown = no inbreeding in 5 generations
48. Personal Ensign = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
49. Sir Barton = inbreeding 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
50. Dahlia = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
51. Susan's Girl = inbreeding 5th remove
52. Twenty Grand = inbreeding 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
53. Sword Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
54. Grey Lag = inbreeding in 5th generation
55. Devil Diver = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
56. Zev = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
57. Riva Ridge = inbreeding in 5th remove
58. Slew o'Gold = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
59. Twilight Tear = inbreeding in 5th remove
60. Native Diver = no inbreeding in 5 generations
61. Omaha = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
62. Cicada = inbreeding in 5th remove
63. Silver Charm = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
64. Holy Bull = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
65. Alsab = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
66. Top Flight = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
67. Arts and Letters = inbreeding in 5th remove
68. All Along = inbreeding in 4th remove
69. Noor = inbreeding in 3rd and 4th remove
70. Shuvee = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
71. Regret = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
72. Go for Wand = inbreeding in the 5th remove
73. Johnstown = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
74. Bald Eagle inbreeding in 5th remove
75. Hill Prince = inbreeding in 5th remove
76. Lady's Secret = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
77. Two Lea = inbreeding in 4th remove
78. Eight Thirty = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
79. Gallant Bloom = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
80. Ta Wee = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
81. Affectionately = inbreeding in 2nd 4th and 5th remove
82. Miesque = inbreeding in 5th remove
83. Carry Back = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
84. Bimelech = no inbreeding in 5 generations
85. Lure = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
86. Fort Marcy = no inbreeding in 5 generations
87. Gamely = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
88. Old Rosebud = inbreeding in 3rd and 4th remove
89. Bewitch = inbreeding in 4th remove
90. Davona Dale = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
91. Genuine Risk = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
92. Sarazen = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
93. Sun Beau = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
94. Artful = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
95. Bayakoa = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
96. Exceller = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove
97. Foolish Pleasure = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
98. Beldame = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove
99. Roamer = inbreeding in 5th remove
100. Blue Larkspur = inbreeding in 3rd, 4th and 5th remove

Here’s a pedigree note about inbreeding that I thought you would find interesting. I’ve been reading “Horse Breeding In Theory And Practice” by Burchard Von Oettingen which was published in 1909 by Sampson Low, Marston & Co.

In his chapter on Inbreeding Oettingen states:

“Common ancestors constitute the basis of inbreeding. By “free generations” is meant the number of generations between the common ancestors and the sire on the one side, and between the common ancestors and the dam on the other side.” - page 224

“…There has been also much damaged by exaggerated inbreeding in the American Thoroughbred breeding. Among the many instances of 0 free generation I have not found a single one in the American Stud Book which has been of importance to breeding. I have only found one good racehorse in the American Breeding, and that is Henry 1819 by Sir Archy-Doimed (i.e. 0 Diomed), celebrated by his famous match with the American Eclipse in New York, 1823.” - page 233

Here’s the pedigree of Henry: http://www.pedigreequery.com/henry

On page 318, Oettingen lists the number of male and female winners of the Derby, St. Leger and Oaks arranged according to free generations of inbreeding. Oettingen concludes:

“1. On the whole the most of the classical winners are found among the 4 free generations, next to which follow the 3 and 5 free generations.

“2. Up to the middle of the past century the 4 free generations predominate also. …

“3. From the middle of the past century up to now the whole picture has been changed in favour of a more removed inbreeding. Here the 5 free generations appear to be the most favourable only, after which follow the more removed inbreedings with 6 free generations, and finally that with 7 free generations.

“4. Lastly, it is worthy of note that the winners of two classical races have been more numerously represented with the more removed inbreedings."

Oettingen then proceeds to illustrate in another table on page 319 the male and female winners of the Derby, St. Leger and Oaks that were born until the year 1895 that were most successful at stud:

“The same change in favour of the more removed inbreeding is shown in the following table, in which the percentage of stallions and mares most successful in breeding is reckoned from the above list. Accordingly, the percentage of stallions most successful in breeding increases with the number of free generations up to 6 free generations [59.1%], in the case of mares even up to 7 free generations [75%].”

I found Oettingen’s analysis interesting in that the farther inbreeding is removed from the foal, the better chance you have a producing a quality thoroughbred.

Although unscientific, I conducted my own survey of modern-day Triple Crown Champions and found similar statistics:

1978 – Affirmed = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1977 – Seattle Slew = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1973 – Secretariat = no inbreeding in 5 generations; 1970 – Nijinsky = inbreeding in 5th remove; 1948 – Citation = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1946 – Assault = inbreeding in 5th remove; 1943 – Count Fleet = inbreeding in 4th remove; 1941 – Whirlaway = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1937 – War Admiral = no inbreeding in 5 generations; 1935 – Omaha = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1930 – Gallant Fox = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; 1919 – Sir Barton = inbreeding in 3rd , 4th and 5th remove.

Here is also what I found for three of, perhaps, the most important Thoroughbreds of all time: Man o’ War = inbreeding in 5th remove; Secretariat = no inbreeding in 5 generations; Ribot = inbreeding in 5th remove.

Other important Thoroughbreds include: Northern Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Mr. Prospector = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Nearco = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Native Dancer = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove.

Here’s some other interesting statistics applicable to more recent times: Zenyatta = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove; Rachel Alexandra = inbreeding in 4th and 5th remove.

My favorite breeder and trainer of all time is the immortal Federico Tesio who bred an incredible 21 Italiano Derby winners. Tesio also trained 20 of those winners and he worked diligently to improve the Thoroughbred in his breeding program. Nearco, Ribot and Donatello were three of his greatest racehorses.

Tesio also studied the writing of Burchard Von Oettingen - a world-renowned expert on Thorougbreds and breeding and Director of the Royal Stud of Trakehnen Germany. Tesio incorporated much of the writing of Oettingen into his breeding program.

Here is what the immortal Federico Tesio had to say about speed and staying power back in the day before they had speed figures.

“But it is impossible to establish mathematically where speed ends and staying power begins, for one horse may be in front at 1000 yards and left behind at 1001, another may be winning at 1001 and be beaten at 1001 ½, and the same may happen at any distance in any race.

“This would lead to the conclusion that distance does not exist – only time – distance being nothing more than an expression of time.

“…A jockey cannot make his mount cover a given distance in a faster time than the horse’s natural capacities allow. He can, however, make him cover it in a slower time.

“…This is the kind of mistake that jockeys frequently make in a race, because they do not realize that the distance should not be measured with a yardstick but with a stop-watch, or by the time it takes to cover it. The successful jockey is the one who is the best judge of the pace – the pace being the time it will take his horse to cover a certain distance.

“In an important race, the owner of a good horse which has been perfectly conditioned for the distance will always try to enter another horse to ‘set the pace’, in other words to ensure the fastest pace possible. Thus a rival horse whose speed is limited to shorter distances will not be given the chance of winning by a sudden sprint.

“It frequently happens, however, that a trainer has not entered a second horse good enough to set the pace for his favourite, …In this event the favourite must set the pace himself.

“To be in front and force the pace has its disadvantages, for the leading horse must act as a wind-breaker which involves greater effort, while those who follow in his wake tire less easily. But between two evils one must always choose the lesser, so in the absence of a pacemaker it is safer for a trainer to take the lead with his favourite, provided he is convinced that his horse can ‘stay’ the distance best, in other words that he can cover the whole distance in the fastest time.” – “Breeding the Racehorse” page 66-67

I have read and participated in many discussions about speed and stamina in the Thoroughbred. Here is what Burchard Von Oettingen had to say about those topics 100 years ago:

…We have the interesting judgment of a practical man, who also lived in the times preceding and succeeding the above-mentioned zenith of Thoroughbred breeding. I am speaking of the well-known jockey, John Osborne, born in 1833, who rode his first race in 1846 and his last race in 1892. Osborone says (vide Ashgill & Radcliffe, page 428) : - “The method of training horses in the present day is quite different to what it was when I began. Horses are very much lighter now; they have neither the bone nor the substance that Thoroughbreds had fifty years ago. Of course, in the old times they were sweated a good deal. Heavy cloths were put on them and they were galloped three and four miles in them. That plan has been discontinued for many years. I don’t know that sweating is weakening to a horse. Old John Scott was a great believer in sweating and bleeding. I am certain that the constitution of horses of the present day would not stand such work; the modern breed is neither so robust nor so strong. Formerly it was quite a common thing for horses to run tthree and four mile heats. If they were subjected to that now they wouldn’t be able to come out of the stable for a month after. …I am fully convinced the constitution of horses of the present day is not as strong as it was forty or fifty years ago. It puzzles me to account for the degeneration in the stoutness of the modern racehorse; really, I cannot point to the cause of it.”

The well-known Malton trainer, Charles Lund, speaking about this question in the year 1899, expresses himself as follows (Ashgill, page 430) : “Racehorses in the olden days were, on the average, 2 stone heavier than those of the present day. Now, horses like Touchstone and West Australian were, if one might say so, twice the size in substance and power in comparison with the present day racehorse, most of which are light of bone and substance, and comparatively weedy in appearance. Present day trainers have gone in for speed too much, with the result that the great majority of horses are too finely built.” – Horse Breeding In Theory And Practice pages 192-193.

Sounds familiar – doesn’t it.

Oettingen, a world-renowned expert about Thorougbreds and breeding, published the preceding in 1909. Oettingen also was the Landstallmeister and Director of the Royal Stud of Trakehnen Germany. He was highly regarded and breeder Federico Tesio studied much of the writing of Oettingen.

I recently had the honor of interviewing Kerry Thomas – the founder of the Thomas Herding Technigue. Thomas and his insight into the behavior of the Thoroughbred is groundbreaking and could lead to major changes in the way Thoroughbreds are raised and trained.

Here’s an excerpt from the interview:

Kerry Thomas knows horses.

Thomas, age 41, has observed and worked with horses since he was 18 years old. He also studied wild mustangs on the Bighorn Mountain Range in their natural Wyoming wilderness habitat.
Thomas is an expert in understanding the fundamentals of a horse's well being and in 2008 he founded the Thomas Herding Technique — a business dedicated to helping horse owners understand the role that the environment and the natural herd dynamic has in the behavioral well being of their horses.

"The environment is the foundation from which all else stems, and it is very often the keeper of unseen stress and behavior issues we only observe much later," said Thomas. "Their movement, where they feed and how they get water, is vitally important." …

Thomas is helping horse owners provide better equine care for their horses. He regularly gives lectures and seminars on the importance of the environment in the behavioral development of horses and his insight into the behavior of the equine species has led to him being compared to Federico Tesio — the late, great, world-renowned owner and breeder of Champion thoroughbreds.

Here's the link to the entire interview:

http://www.thomasherdingtechnique.com/about/provide-better-quality-equine-care.php

I love to talk about pedigrees and I love to follow 2YO and 3YO thoroughbreds. In the next few months, I will be writing about them as they proceed on the Triple Crown Trail.

I hope you enjoy the blog.

Pedigree and breeding is very important when it comes to racing 2YO and 3YO thoroughbreds. A good understanding of pedigrees is important if you hope to pick the next Classic Champion and this year’s Triple Crown Trail has been the best yet.

Here’s a look back at my 2009 pedigree analysis and handicapping picks that I posted on the Daily Racing FormBlog hosted by Dan Illman. I had several nice picks on the 2009 Triple Crown Trail. My Lane’s End pick of Hold Me Back and Flying Private was nice but the best by far was the Belmont. I picked Summer Bird to win and place. I also had the exacta, trifecta and superfecta.

FormBlog May 18, 2009
Weekend recap

vicstu,
It’s a long way off until the Belmont and Rachel Alexandra has not been committed to the Belmont yet. But of the possible entries that may run, I’m looking at Mine That Bird, Summer Bird, Charitable Man and Dunkirk (or Chocolate Candy) as the horses that I will use in my wagers. Of course, my selections may change when I see the final entries.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on May 18, 2009 at 08:33 PM

FormBlog June 03, 2009
Affirmed

Handigambling 136 - Belmont Stakes
In addition to #7 Mine That Bird, I believe that this Belmont is setting up nicely for the horses that I liked in the Kentucky Derby – #2 Dunkirk and #4 Summer Bird.

Dunkirk should bounce back with a big race. He is much better than his Kentucky Derby indicated and that race is a toss out. Summer Bird is lightly raced but I believe that he has the potential to make a big move forward. He gets top-notch jockey Kent Desormeaux who is experienced at Belmont and he adds toe grabs and blinkers.

Of the new runners, #6 Charitable Man is the most promising and he will most likely be in the exotics – if not in the winners circle.

$8 W/P #4 = $16
$2 Exacta: 4/2-6-7 = $6$2 Exacta: 2-6-7/4 = $6
$2 Trifecta Box: 2-4-6-7 = $48
$1 Superfecta Box: 2-4-6-7 = $24
Total Bet = $100
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on June 05, 2009 at 11:26 AM
Here’s the Belmont Chart:
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/2009.pdf

I did well in the Preakness also. I had the Black-eyed Susan/Preakness double. I also had the Preakness exacta and Trifecta. If Big Drama held on for 4th place, I would have also had the superfecta.

FormBlog May 11, 2009
Controversy!

johnnyz,
I liked your look at the Preakness Stakes and I would agree that Mine That Bird may be better than most people think.

Before the Kentucky Derby I wrote about the outstanding pedigree of Summer Bird. Mine That Bird has the same sire line as Summer Bird and my only regret is that I did not have a saver bet on Mine That Bird. I made the same mistake on Raven’s Pass in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

A lot of people have expressed shock at the victory of Mine That Bird. But Mine That Bird has something going for him that the other horses don’t – the first three ancestors in his sire line are Classic Champions. Birdstone won the Belmont. Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby and was retired to stud with a chip in his right knee. Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby; finished 2nd in the Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.

The last thoroughbred to have a similar pedigree was Needles who won the 1956 Kentucky Derby. Needles finished 2nd in the Preakness and 1st in the Belmont. Needles sire, Ponder, won the 1949 Kentucky Derby; was 2nd in the Preakness and 2nd in the Belmont. Needles grandsire, Pensive, won the 1944 Kentucky Derby; was 1st in the Preakness and 2nd in the Belmont.
Breeding does make the difference and it’s not everyday that you see this many Classic Champions in the first three generations of a pedigree. …

I also agree on your thoughts about Rachael Alexandra.

Mine That Bird, Rachael Alexandra and Musket Man are the three thoroughbreds that I will use in most of my Preakness bets.
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on May 13, 2009 at 01:43 PM

FormBlog May 13, 2009
Preakness thoughts

Handigambling
$2 Black Eyed Susan-Preakness Double - 2, 7/ 2, 3, 13 = $12$2 Exacta 2,1 = $2$2 Exacta Box – 2,3 = $4$2 Exacta Box – 2,13 = $4$5 Trifecta Box – 2,3,13 = $30$2 Superfecta Box – 1,2,3,13 = $48Total bet = $100
Posted by: Calvin L. Carter on May 15, 2009 at 02:31 PM
Here’s the Preakness Chart:
http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2009/contenders/minethatbird.html

Like most everyone else, I did not have Mine That Bird to win the Kentucky Derby. I did, however, like Summer Bird and Dunkirk. I liked Summer Bird so much I interviewed Dr. Kalarikkal K. Jayaraman in hopes of having the story published. I was not able to get it published and I posted it on the FormBlog.

FormBlog April 24, 2009
Weekend thoughts, Beat the chalk, etc.

The Kentucky Derby is what dreams are made of and if Summer Bird wins the Derby, the owner and breeder team of Doctors Kalarikkal K. Jayaraman and his wife, Valasini D., will be living their dream.

The Jayaraman’s are no strangers to the Kentucky Derby. In 1989 they pursued their dream when they sent forward Irish Actor who finished 7th to Sunday Silence in the Run for the Roses. This year, though, the Jayaraman’s believe they have a better chance at winning the Kentucky Derby with the Arkansas Derby third-place finisher Summer Bird.

“He’s a pretty nice colt. He looked like a horse that could run,” said Jayaraman who, along with his wife, have bred and raised thoroughbreds at their Tiffany Farms near Ocala, Fla. since 1982.

“He broke his maiden very impressively,” said Jayaraman, commenting on Summer Bird’s first-place finish in only his second start on March 19th in a 1 1/16 mile race at Oaklawn Park. It was that performance that motivated the Jayaraman’s to pay the $6,000 late nomination fee to nominate Summer Bird to the Triple Crown. Two weeks later, Summer Bird did not disappoint the Jayaraman’s when he rallied from dead last to finish a fast-closing third-place in the Arkansas Derby and brought home a $100,000 paycheck.

The Jayaraman’s spend a lot of time studying pedigrees and planning matings. Thoroughbreds that the Jayaraman’s have bred include G2 Stakes Winner Royal Spy and G3 Stakes Winner Comic Truth. Their biggest success to date is the G1 Stakes Winner Dearest Trickski. It’s that kind of research and planning that led to the breeding of Summer Bird (Birdstone-Hong Kong Squall by Summer Squall).

At first glance, with only three life-time starts and $100,000 in Graded Stakes earnings, Summer Bird would not appear to be a likely Kentucky Derby winner. His Dosage Profile – a numbering system created by Dr. Steven A. Romans to measure the number of Chef-de-Race stallions in the first four generations of a horse’s pedigree – is a modest 16. Summer Bird’s great grandsire, Unbridled, is the only Chef-de-Race to be found in the first three generations. Dear Birdie and Weekend Surprise are the only Reines-de-Course (Queens of the Turf) mares found in the first three generations.

So, there is not a lot of Blue Blood up close in the pedigree of Summer Bird. But, appearances can be deceiving and upon further inspection, the pedigree of Summer Bird appears to be a who’s who of Classic Champions and important sires.
In the first generation of Summer Bird’s pedigree is his sire Birdstone – the Classic Champion Belmont winner who upset Smarty Jones’ bid to be the second undefeated thoroughbred to win the Triple Crown.

In the second generation are the Classic Champions Grindstone and Summer Squall. Grindstone was a strong closer and in the 1996 Kentucky Derby he rallied for the win – trailing by 15 lengths at the half-mile mark – to edge Cavonnier by a nose in the final stride. Summer Squall finished second in the 1990 Kentucky Derby losing by three and one-half lengths to his rival Unbridled. However, in the Preakness Summer Squall turned the tables on Unbridled beating him by two and one-quarter lengths in a near-record time of 1:53 3/5. Summer Squall did not race in the Belmont because of bleeding issues and Unbridled finished third. Also in the second generation is the Reine-de-Course mare Dear Birdie – the dam of Birdstone and 2006 broodmare of the year.

In the third generation are the Classic Champions Unbridled and Alysheba; two strains of the important sire Storm Bird and the Reine-de-Course mare Weekend Surprise. In addition to being the sire of Summer Squall, Storm Bird was also the sire of the influential sire Storm Cat; the grandsire of the 1994 Preakness and Belmont winner Tabasco Cat and the damsire of the 1995 Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. Dubbed “America’s Horse” by racing fans, Alysheba won the 1987 Kentucky Derby and Preakness en-route to an 11-8-2 career record in 26 starts and $6,679,242 in earnings. The outstanding broodmare Weekend Surprise was the dam of Summer Squall and 1992 Belmont winner and sire of sires A.P. Indy.

In the fourth generation is one of the most outstanding sons of Mr. Prospector and important sire Fappiano; the important sire Drone – damsire of the 1996 Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone and 1999 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Charismatic; two strains of the sire of sires and Classic Champion Northern Dancer – winner of the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness; the Classic Champion Secretariat – winner of the 1973 American Triple Crown and the Classic Champion Nijinsky – undefeated winner of the 1970 English Triple Crown. In addition to being a Classic Champion, Nijinsky was an outstanding stallion who sired the 1986 Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand; Epsom Derby winners Golden Fleece (1982), Shahrastani (1986) and Lammtarra (1995); Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Lammtarra (1995) and Prix du Jockey Club winner Caerleon (1983). Nijinksy was also the grandsire of the Epsom Derby winners Kahyasi (1988) and Generous (1991); Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Marienbard (2002) and Belmont winner Bet Twice (1987).

Also in the fourth generation is the legendary Alydar and if Affirmed had not been his rival, Alydar would have been the 1978 Triple Crown winner. Alydar was also an important stallion who sired the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba (1987); Kentucky Derby winner Strike The Gold (1991) and the Belmont winner Easy Goer (1989).

After the Arkansas Derby, Summer Bird only had $100,000 in Graded Stakes earnings and it looked like he would not make into the field for the Kentucky Derby. But when the news broke that Giant Oak would bypass the Kentucky Derby, the Jayaraman’s were excited to hear that Summer Bird would draw-in to the Derby field.

“I hope he does well,” said Jayaraman. “That’s all we can hope for.”

The Jayaraman’s know that a good pedigree does not guarantee success on the race track. But if Summer Bird lives up to his breeding, the Jayaraman’s are hopeful that he will bring them closer to living their dream.

Summer Bird did not race as a two-year old and he will have only raced three times as a three-year-old when he enters the Derby starting gate. The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby with only three starts was the filly Regret (1915). Apollo won the Derby in 1882 without having raced as a two-year-old.

On May 2nd, Summer Bird will make his bid to have his name entered into the Derby history book. However, when it comes to making history, Summer Bird might have the slight advantage – his ancestors were history makers.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on April 25, 2009 at 10:53 PM

Summer Bird finished a respectable 6th in the Kentucky Derby and that performance made him my favorite Belmont long shot bet.

Quality Road and Dunkirk were two of my favorites on the 2009 Triple Crown Trail. I picked Quality Road to win the Fountain of Youth and I liked him in the Florida Derby.

FormBlog March 23, 2009
Weekend Beyers, etc.
Blackstone,
We know that Dunkirk can get the distance of the Florida Derby but we won’t know for sure how well Quality Road will do until Saturday. However, if he lives up to his breeding, I believe that he could win the Florida Derby.

Quality Road is a descendent of Gone West which is one of my favorite Mr. Prospector bloodlines. Gone West and his line have sired numerous sprinter/miler Graded Champions – as well as several route Graded champions. Gone West is the grandsire of the outstanding Zarkava – winner of the 2008 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Quality Road’s sire, Elusive Quality, is also the sire of Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Raven’s Pass. Gone West is also the sire of 2000 Belmont winner Commendable and 2003 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Johar who dead-heated with High Chaparral.

Quality Road’s dam, Kobla, was winless in two starts but she is the sister of Grade 1 Champion filly Aijina – winner of the CCA Oaks at 1¼ miles. Her sire, Strawberry Road, won several races at 1½ miles during his career and he was the Champion Australian 3-year-old; Australian Horse of the Year and Champion Older Horse in Germany.

Kobla’s grandsire, Alydar, finished second to Affirmed in all three legs of the of the 1978 Triple Crown. Her great-great grandsire, Nijinsky, was the undefeated 1970 English Triple Crown winner and later that year he suffered his first defeat after 11 starts finishing 2nd in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Nijinksy was also an influential stallion who sired the 1986 Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand and Epsom Derby winner Shahrastani.

Here’s another interesting note: Quality Road and Zarkava both have the same nicking pattern – both are descendents of the sire line of Gone West and the damsire line of Nijinsky.

So, as you can see there are several stamina influences throughout the pedigree of Quality Road. If you look at the 5th generation of Quality Road, there are 10 Reine-de-Course mares (Queens of the Turf) and 22 of his ancestors (69%) are descended from important female families. Quality Road’s sire, Elusive Quality, and his dam, Kobla, are both descendents, through their female line, of Frizette – a very influential broodmare of the 20th Century and a foundation mare of Marcel Boussac’s stud. In addition, Quality Road’s great grandsire, Mr. Prospector, is also a descendent of Frizette through his female line.

Only time will tell if Quality Road can stretch out to be effective at longer distances.

The Florida Derby should be very exciting and I believe that it could end up being a match race between two of the best lines of Mr. Prospector – Gone West (Quality Road) and Fappiano (Dunkirk).

Dunkirk’s sire, Unbridled’s Song, is a descendent of the Fappiano line and that line has produced three Kentucky Derby winners: Unbridled (1990); Grindstone (1996) and Real Quiet (1998).

Dunkirk has been on my watch list since last year and I picked Quality Road to win the Fountain of Youth. Both horses have excellent breeding and I believe they have the potential to be outstanding thoroughbreds. If either of them wins, I will be happy. …
Posted by: Calvin Carter on March 25, 2009 at 11:52 AM
Here’s the Florida Derby Chart:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/contenders/Dunkirk.html

My Lane’s End selection was especially nice as I picked Hold Me Back for the win and Flying Private to complete the $586.80 exacta.

FormBlog March 18, 2009
HandiGambling 125
Alan,
Hold Me Back #1 and Flying Private #10 could be potential good long shot bets in the Lane's End.
Hold Me Back is in good hands with Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux. His works have been good and he's out of the Storm Cat line like West Side Bernie.

Flying Private overcame severe traffic problems in the Mountain Valley to lose by only a head and post a 95 Brisnet Speed Figure. With Fusaichi Pegasus as his sire and Unbridled as the damsire, he can get the distance.

Alan, please give me Hold Me Back for the Lane's End.

Posted by: Calvin Carter on March 19, 2009 at 10:57 PM
Here’s the Lane’s End chart: http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/contenders/HoldMeBack.html

The 2008 Belmont was also a good year. I picked Da’Tara and Anak Nakal as two good potential long shot bets.

FormBlog June 03, 2008
Belmont Press Conference
vicstu,
Big Brown (1) and Casino Drive (5) are very talented and either one may come in 1st or 2nd. In addition, I also like Icabad Crane (10), Denis of Cork (4) and Da’ Tara (6). …
From a pedigree point of view, in my opinion, this year’s field is much better than last year’s field as there are several horses that could score in the Belmont.

Some of those horses could pull an upset if they ran the best race of their career. Icabad Crane, Anak Nakal, Macho Again and Da’Tara have the pedigrees to get the job done and at their juicy morning line odds, it might warrant a small win bet on them.

Of those long shots, I believe that Icabad Crane, Anak Nakal and Da’ Tara are the best bets. …Posted by: Calvin Carter on June 05, 2008 at 02:50 PM

Here’s the 2008 Belmont Chart:
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/2008.pdf

In the Santa Anita Derby, I picked Colonel John to win and I had Bob Black Jack to round out the exacta.

I also picked Recapturetheglory to win the Illinois Derby and he paid $33.80 for the win.
FormBlog April 04, 2008
Weekend opinions
Santa Anita Derby: I think that Colonel John (5) will win. But I also like Yankee Bravo (1) and Bob Black Jack (4). Exacta box (1-4-5); Trifecta (1-4-5).
Illinois Derby: at 8-1 morning line I like Recapturetheglory (1) as my longshot pick. I also like like Z Humor (3) and Denis of Cork (5). W/P #1. Exacta box 1-3-5. Trifecta 1-3-5.
Posted by: Calvin Carter on April 05, 2008 at 12:57 PM
Here’s the Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby chart:
http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08santaanitaderby_chart.pdf

http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08HAWillinoisderby_chart.pdf

In the 2008 Lecomte I thought that Z Fortune was an intriguing horse and could be a good bet.

FormBlog January 09, 2008
Macho, Macho Again! Firsters w/blinks, Nicanor, synthetics
johnnyz,
…Speaking of imports, that brings me to the Le Comte and I agree johnnyz that it is shaping up to be very competive.
I don’t know yet if I’ll play it, however, there are several horses with good pedigrees that I like in that race. I, too, like Texas Fever. In addition, I also like Macho Again, Blackberry Road and the Mad Flatter.

But the horse I’m most interested is Z Fortune who was sired by the Brazilian import Siphon.
I have no idea how Z Fortune will do or if he’ll even be competitive. So far he’s undefeated in two starts and, talk about classic stamina bloodline, Z Fortune’s line is loaded with Brazilian and European champions that trace back to St. Simon who was the most dominant sire of classic stamina at the turn of the 20th Century – his progeny dominated global racing for decades thereafter.

Z Fortune’s 5th great-grandsire Prince Rose was the 1931 Belgium Triple Crown winner and according to pedigreequery.com he “was probably the best colt of his generation in Europe.” In addition, Prince Rose was also the sire of Princequillo who was another important source of stamina in the thoroughbred.

Z Fortune’s grandsire Itajara was the Brazilian Triple Crown winner and was undefeated in 7 starts. Z Fortune’s sire, Siphon, 12-6-2 in 25 starts with $3,155,919 in career earnings was a champion in Brazil and America and won races from 6 furlongs to 1 ¼ miles. …

So who knows? Only time will tell how well Z Fortune performs in the Le Comte and if he’ll have an impact on the Triple Crown Trail. From the barn of Steve Asmussen, he’ll be given every opportunity to be a success. …
Posted by: Calvin Carter on January 10, 2008 at 11:45 AM
Here’s the Lecomte chart:
http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08FGlecomte_chart.pdf

In 2007, on the Kentuckyderby.com website I picked Rags to Riches, Curlin and Tiago to finish in the top three of the Belmont. The link to that is no longer available but here’s what I posted about the 2007 Belmont on the Daily Racing FormBlog.
FormBlog September 15, 2007
Sandown!
Alan,
I picked Street Sense and Curlin for the Kentucky Derby - Hard Spun tripped me up.
However, I also liked Rags to Riches for the Belmont and here's what I posted about the Belmont on another blog on June 6.

(10 of the past 12 (83%) Belmont winners are out of the Mr. Prospector bloodline which has produced a total of 12 winners since Conquistador Cielo (Mr. Prospector) won in 1982. Hansel (Woodman) won the Belmont in 1991 followed by Thunder Gulch (Gulch) in 1995. Since then, Mr. Prospector has been the dominate bloodline in the Belmont.

Curlin and C.P. West are the only Mr. Prospector horses entered in the Belmont field.
When I look at pedigrees alone, there are three horses that I believe are standouts in the Belmont field: Curlin, Rags to Riches and Tiago.

All three horses paternal and maternal grandsires have sired Belmont winners. Curlin's grandsires are Mr. Prospector and Deputy Minister. Rags to Riches is sired by 1992 Belmont winner A.P. Indy and her grandsires are Seattle Slew (who won the 1977 Belmont and is the only undeated Triple Crown winner) and Deputy Minister. Rags great grandsire, Secretariat, was a Triple Crown winner and also sired Belmont winner Risen Star (1988). Tiago's grandsires Pleasant Colony and Stop the Music also sired Belmont winners.)
Posted by: Calvin Carter on September 17, 2007 at 01:51 PM
Here’s the 2007 Belmont chart:

http://www.drf.com/row/charts/07belmontstakes_chart.pdf

I love to study pedigrees and thoroughbred race horses. I recently copyrighted for publication the sire and damsire line of all the American Classic winners and I am currently working on documenting that same information for all of the European Classic winners.