Blue Grass Stakes Racing Roundup

Hansen, the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) hero and Eclipse Champion Two-Year-Old Male, will seek to establish himself as leader of the “herd” Saturday when he races in the 88^th running of the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.

Since his 2-year-old season, Hansen has struggled to gain the role as leader of the 3-year-old division when he finished a well-beaten second to Algorithms in the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park in January.

I liked Algorithms in that race and had previously profiled him in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook as a young colt that may have classic potential. However, he was later taken off the trail with an injury.

In March, Hansen rebounded from his loss in the Holy Bull with a three-length victory over My Adonis in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Overall, his record is 4-1-0 in five career starts.

While Hansen, the 6-5 morning line favorite in the Blue Grass, is a very talented son of Tapit, there are other young colts in this race that I like better and if I use Hansen it will be on the bottom of the exotics.

Howe Great and Dullahan, the 6-1 morning line second co-choice set by Mike Battaglia, are currently at the top of my Derby list and a solid run in the Blue Grass will keep them in that spot. Howe Great tops the list but he will need to win in order to advance to the Kentucky Derby while Dullahan already has enough graded stakes earnings.

Howe Great is a young colt I’ve been interested in since last summer and I profiled him in my Derby Outlook. Like Hansen, Howe Great also has a 4-1-0 in five career starts but he’s run in fewer stakes races.

His win the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park last month was one of the best performances I’ve seen on this year’s trail. In that race, Howe Great stalked fast fractions set by pacesetter Scorcher and showed me that he has the “will to win” when Dullahan tried to close gap in the final yards of the stretch.

If Howe Great repeats that performance with a win in the Blue Grass, he’ll be a tough Kentucky Derby contender.

Dullahan also looked good finishing second to Howe Great in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) and he’s somewhat of a “buzz” horse coming into the Blue Grass. Trainer Dale Romans used the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) as a springboard for Paddy O’Prado who won the 2010 edition of that race and went on to finish second in the Blue Grass and third in the Kentucky Derby.

Dullahan already has a win over the Keeneland track with three-quarter length win over Majestic City in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) last fall. Dullahan followed that win with a solid fourth-place finish to Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).

Prospective (10-1) is an under-the-radar Malibu Moon colt that I’ve liked in all of his races as a 3-year-old and he comes into the Blue Grass with a 4-2-0 record in seven starts.

His only bad race was a dead-last finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs last fall and since then he’s won the Pasco Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3).

Malibu Moon, the sire of Prospective, only raced twice until he was retired with a slab fracture. But at stud, Malibu Moon has produced some nice sprint and middle-distance horses such as Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon and Malibu Mint.

Awesome Again, the damsire of Prospective, was a good middle-distance runner that won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and earned classic honors by winning the Queen’s Plate Stakes, one of the most prestigious races in Canada.

Illinois Derby Racing Roundup

An overflow field of 17 young Thoroughbreds was drawn for the 55^th running of the $500,000 Illinois Derby (G3) which is the ninth of ten races on today’s card at Hawthorne Race Course.

Only 14 of those horses – with Currency Swap as the 4-1 morning line favorite – will make it to the starting gate. Currency Swap currently has $150,000 in graded stakes earnings and he might squeak by with a second-place finish but a win in today’s race would stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby – all the others in the field will need to win.

After a five-month layoff, Currency Swap returned to racing in March at Gulfstream Park for his debut as a 3-year-old and finished a 7-length runner up to Gemologist who is the morning line favorite of Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) which will be run today at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Currency Swap has room to improve in his second start of the season and another move forward will make him competitive in today’s race.

Our Entourage is the 9-2 morning line second-choice and he looks like he has the potential to give trainer Todd Pletcher his fourth victory in the Illinois Derby.

The son of Street Cry looked good winning his 3-year-old debut in February at Gulstream Park running 8½-furlongs on the turf in a sharp 1:40. 85. Breaking from post nine, Our Entourage moved quickly into position chasing the pace and took the lead in the stretch to prevail by one length at the finish.

Another move forward in today’s race will make Our Entourage very competitive.

Saturday Launch (15-1) comes into the race off a sharp win in a one mile turf race at Gulfstream Park on March11. In sixth-place at the top of the stretch, Saturday Launch angled to the outside and made a nice rally to get up at the finish and win by a half-length.

That race was the second start of the season for Saturday Launch who finished third in his 3-year-old debut in a 9-furlong turf race at Gulfstream Park.

Saturday Launch has room to improve in his third start for the season and another move forward will make him competitive in the Illinois Derby.

Honorable mention goes to Done Talking (20-1) who has room to improve in his second start of the season. I liked him as a long shot in the Gotham Stakes (G3) but he finished 10^th coming into the race off of a three-month layoff.

Done Talking probably needed the race and if he looks good in the paddock, I’m willing to give him another chance.

Prior to the Gotham, Done Talking finished fourth to victor El Padrino in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and was only beaten by a length. El Padrino has since gone on to win the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and finished fourth in the Florida Derby (G1).

Done Talking closed fast in the Remsen and earned a 113 Brisnet Late Pace Figure for that effort. Any improvement in that performance will make Done Talking very competitive in today’s race.

Wood Memorial Stakes Racing Roundup

Undefeated Gemologist, with four wins to his credit, will go to the starting gate Saturday for trainer Todd Pletcher as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 88^th running of the $1 million Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct Racetrack.

With $103,855 in graded stakes earnings, Gemologist will probably need to finish at least second in order to have enough earnings to make it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

While the quality of the field that Gemologist defeated in his last race is suspect, he did finish in hand, covering the mile in a sharp 1:35.95. Since that race, Gemologist fired a bullet work out on April 1 and another move forward will make him competitive in the Wood Memorial.

If Gemologist repeats the form of his of his 3-year-old debut last month at Gulfstream Park where he led from gate-to-wire and cruised to a 7-length victory, he has a good chance to stamp his ticket to Louisville.

Alpha (5-2) has been on my watch list since last summer and he has the breeding to be competitive in classic competition. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, an index I use to measure classic potential, is a very good 97.5 – a score of 100 or more is excellent.

Alpha’s sire, Bernardini, was a fast colt that won races from a mile to 10-furlongs as a 3-year-old. Notable races Bernardini won en route to becoming the 2006 Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male include: Withers Stakes (G3, 8-furlongs), Preakness Stakes (G1, 9½-furlongs), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2, 8½-furlongs), Travers Stakes (G1, 10-furlongs) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1, 10-furlongs).

A. P. Indy , the gradsire of Alpha, and great grandsire Seattle Slew, were Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. Nijinsky, the damsire of Alpha, and maternal grandsire Northern Dancer were also Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. Alydar, the sire of the second dam, would have been a Classic Champion Thoroughbred if it had not been for Affirmed.

Munnaya, the dam of Alpha, raced in England and won the 11-furlong Lingfield Oaks Trail Stakes and finished third in the 10-furlong Pretty Polly Stakes. The remaining four dams on the tail-female line – Hiaam, Kamar, Square Angel and Nangela – were all stakes winners. Kamar was the 1979 Canadian Champion 3-year-old filly and Square Angel was the 1973 Champion.

Alpha has shown some behavioral issues when loading in the gate so I’ll be watching to see if he has overcome that problem. While it remains to be seen if Alpha will live up to his breeding, if he behaves in the paddock and starting gate, I look for him to run a good race.

A long shot I like is Casual Trick (20-1) who also was sired by Bernardini.

Casual Trick flipped his pallet in his last two races but has since had surgery to correct the problem. He has the breeding to be a factor, but, he’ll also need to improve his game if he’s going to make it to the winners circle.

Casual Look, the dam of Casual Trick, was an English classic winner of the Epsom Oaks and Red Ransom, the damsire of Casual Trick, was considered by many to be a strong contender for the 1990 Triple Crown before he was retired due to an injury.

Manila, the sire of the second dam, was the 1986 Eclipse Champion Turf Male with over $2.6 million in career earnings and the 2008 inductee into the National Museum of Racing of Hall of Fame.

General Assembly, the sire of the third dam, was a multiple graded stakes winner that finished second in the 1979 Kentucky Derby and set a new track record of 2:00.0 in the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1).

Prior to problems with his pallet, Casual Trick finished second in the Gulstream Park Derby to Reveron who recently finished second to Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby (G1).

Trainer Nick Zito knows how to get young colts ready for big races and if Casual Trick can return to the form of his Gulfstream Park Derby performance, he can be competitive in the Wood Memorial.

Street Life has quickly become a “buzz” horse with two back-to-back wins at Aqueduct including a half-length win in the Broad Brush Stakes on March 17.

Street Life has good breeding with Street Sense as his sire and Grindstone as his damsire. However, he’s taking a big step up in class and only first place honors will give him the graded earnings he needs to start in the Kentucky Derby.

Santa Anita Derby Racing Roundup

Trainer Mike Harrington is looking to score his first win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and it appears that he has a good chance with Creative Cause who will go to the starting gate Saturday as the 6-5 morning line favorite in the 75^th running of the $750,000 graded stakes race at Santa Anita Park.

Creative Cause has been on my watch list since last summer and in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook I wrote about him as a young colt with a lot of talent. He’s raced in all the big graded-stakes races on the west coast, never finishing worse than third, and he comes into the Santa Anita Derby with a 4-1-2 record in seven career starts.

In the second start of his 3-year-old season, Creative Cause showed a lot of improvement defeating a very talented Bodemeister by three-quarters of a length in the 8½-furlong San Felipe Stakes (G2).

In his last three races, Creative Cause has earned three straight 102 Brisnet Speed Figures. I’d like to see him increase that number and run the 9-furlong Derby in a time of 1:48 or less.

With $686,000 in graded stakes earnings, Creative Cause has earned his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, so he doesn’t need to win but I’m expecting him to win or run a good race and show that he’s continuing to improve and move forward.

Brother Francis (20-1) is another young colt that has the potential to make a big move forward and he’s my long shot pick. I liked him early last year, too, and profiled him in my Derby outlook. But, still a maiden with two seconds and two third-place finishes, Brother Francis has yet to live up to my expectations.

With his trailing at the back of the “herd” running style, I’ve always thought that Brother Francis would perform better at longer races and his pedigree seems to indicate that he could be competitive at any distance.

Lion Heart, the sire of Brother Francis, was a precocious 2-year-old who won the 2003 Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and Hollywood Futurity Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Lion Heart finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2), Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).

The distaff part of the pedigree also has a good mix of speed and stamina and the damsire line is impressive with Classic Champion Thoroughbreds in the first three generations.

Spectrum, the damsire of Brother Francis, won the 8-furlong Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Prix du Prince d'Orange (Group 3). Rainbow Quest, the second damsire, won the 12-furlong Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1). Blushing Groom, the third damsire, was a French Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, a European Champion Three-Year-Old Miler and winner of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas).

Viapervita, the dam of Brother Francis, was a listed stakes winner in Germany. Way For Life, the second dam of Brother Francis, was listed stakes placed in Germany. Platini, the sire of Way For Life, was a Group One stakes winner in Germany. His sire, Surumu also sired Acatenango – the damsire of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

Brother Francis finished third, narrowly losing by a head, in his 3-year-old debut last month at Santa Anita. The time for the one mile maiden race on the turf was a sharp 1:34.39 and that’s what I like to see in a colt that may have classic potential.

Brother Francis has room to improve in his second start of the season and he’ll need to run the best race of his career as a second-place finish may not give him enough graded stakes earnings to go to Kentucky.

Since winning his 3-year-old debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), I’ll Have Another (5-2) has not raced for more than two months but long layoffs don’t seem to have much of an effect as he won the Lewis as a 43.30 to one long shot off of a four month break. I’ll Have Another ran the 8½-furlongs in a sharp 1:40.84 and earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.

Since then, I’ll Have another has had three straight long distance work outs including a mile work on March 12. Prior the Lewis stakes, trainer Doug O’Neill used a similar work pattern for I’ll Have Another, with two 7-furlong work outs, so he could be ready to run another good race.

With Flower Alley as the sire of I’ll Have Another and Arch as the damsire, the stretch out to 9-furlongs should not be a problem.

Flower Alley was a good middle-distance runner that won Travers Stakes (G1), Lane's End Stakes (G2) and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) as a 3-year-old. Arch also was a good 3-year-old that won the 10-furlong Super Derby and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3). In addition, Arch sired Blame, winner of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Eclipse Champion Older Male, and he also sired the 2006 Canadian Horse of the Year Arravale.

Liaison (8-1) appears to be the best entry for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert who also has Paynter (12-1) and Blueskiesandrainbows (20-1) entered in the Santa Anita Derby.

Louisiana Derby Racing Roundup

Former Kentucky Governor Brereton C. Jones has high hopes in his coupled entry of Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling, the 2-1 morning line favorite, to win the 99^th running of the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course.

However, the governor’s best prospect for the win is probably Mark Valeski who narrowly lost winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) by a nose to El Padrino last month at the Fair Grounds.

Both colts are trained by Larry Jones who won the Louisiana Derby in 2009 with Friesan Fire.

I liked Mark Valeski in the Risen Star and I like him in today’s race too. Since that race, Mark Valeski has been working out good and a bullet work out on March 20 could have him ready to run a good race.

Proud Citizen, the sire of Mark Valeksi, won the Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G2) en route to a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Fortunate Prospect, the damsire of Mark Valeski, is also the damsire of Musket Man who proved to be a good middle-distance runner that finished third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1).

The tail-female line (family A1) of Mark Valeski also has some good influence. Silver Fog, the fourth dam of Mark Valeski, was the fourth dam of Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol and the line traces to Ballet who was the ancestress of the classic champions Exterminator and Regret.

A long shot I like in this race is Fire Alarm (20-1) who has shown steady improvement since finishing third in his 3-year-old debut at the Fair Grounds in February. In that race, Fire Alarm was part of a coupled entry with Tiz Moe and the pair went off as the even-money favorite. Tiz Moe finished second, beating Fire Alarm by 2¼-lengths.

In March, the pair was made the even-money favorite in another race at the Fair Grounds but this time Fire Alarm turned the tables on his stable mate and beat Tiz Moe by a neck after a gutsy duel in the final yards of the race.

With Fusaichi Pegasus as his sire and Tiznow as the damsire, Fire Alarm should run better as the races get longer.

Miguel Mena was in the irons for Fire Alarm’s first win as a 3-year-old and he returns for today’s mount. Fire Alarm has room to improve in his third start of the season and another move forward will make him very competitive in today’s race.

Cigar Street (7-2) has become the “buzz horse” after his 13¾-length victory in an 8½-furlong maiden race at the Fair Grounds earlier this month. Cigar Street earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure for his maiden win which is one digit shy of the 101 that Mark Valeski earned for his performance in the Risen Star.

One never knows how these young colts will fare after an impressive maiden win but trainer Stephen Margolis must have a lot of confidence in Cigar Street’s ability to improve and move forward.

With Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense as his sire, Deputy Minister as the damsire and Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew as the sire of the second dam, Cigar Street should like the stretch out to 9-furlongs. In addition, Cigar Street's second dam Solar Slew was also the dam of the outstanding Thoroughbred Cigar.

If Cigar Street moves forward off of his maiden win he should be competitive in today’s race.

Honorable mention goes to Z Dager (8-1) who finished third to El Padrino and Mark Valeski in the Risen Star. Since finishing sixth in his maiden debut at Churchill Downs last October, Z Dager has been competitive, finishing in the money in three previous races.

A bullet work out at the Fair Grounds on March 19 – the only bullet fired by Z Dager – could have him ready to run a good race.