Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has several promising 3-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail this year and today he sends Conveyance to the starting gate as the 3-5 morning-line favorite in the $100,000 San Rafael Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

Conveyance will be stretching to a route race and stepping up into stakes competition for the first time but he should be able to handle that with no problem. In his previous two starts, both 6-furlong sprints, Conveyance showed plenty of speed and led from gate-to-wire to win his maiden race by 1 ½ - lengths last October. In November, Conveyance, leading all the way, came back and won an allowance race in a 7-length romp and earned a 101 Brisnet Speed Figure.

Despite being lightly raced, Conveyance has been working out good since last November and looks like the horse to beat.

Of the five horses entered in the San Rafael, Via Verde is the one I am most interested in. Via Verde was sired by Cherokee Run and he is a three-quarter brother to Musket Man who won several prep races on this year’s Derby Trail enroute to a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

With the impressive performance of Musket Man and The Pamplemousse, winner of last year’s San Rafael, I wrote in my July 3 blog that I was going to keep track to see if a trend was emerging of Cherokee Run sire line colts stepping up to become good middle-distance stakes winners.

Via Verde is the most promising that I have seen so far and if he lives up to his breeding, he could, perhaps, have an impact on the Triple Crown Trail.

Only time will tell.

Pasco Stakes

Uptowncharlybrown became the buzz horse for many after breaking his maiden in a 6 ½ -furlong sprint at Tampa Bay Downs by an impressive 9-length margin December 26. Uptowncharlybrown heads a field of eight 3-year-olds as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Musket Man won the Pasco last year and New Jersey-based trainer Alan Seewald has high hopes that Uptowncharlybrown will follow in those footpints.

“"He's the main reason we decided to come to Tampa," Seewald said in an Daily Racing Form news story. Uptowncharlybrown "showed us early he was a colt with a lot of talent and potential, and we wanted to have a place to develop his skills where we knew we wouldn't have weather problems and he would have a good surface to train over.”

Uptowncharlybrown is sired by Limehouse who won the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes and 8 ½ -furlong Tampa Bay Derby so the 7-furlong Pasco should not be a problem.

Silver Craft (9-2) looks like he could be tough in this race. If you throw out his November 25 attempt to run in a route race at Churchill Downs, Silver Craft has two nice wins coming into this race and one of those was a 6 ¼ -length romp in a 7-furlong sprint. Silver Craft earned a 91 and a 90 Brisnet Speed Figure for those two wins. He’s been working out good at Tampa Bay and he starts from the number three hole for trainer Anthony Reinstedler.

In his last race, Gesu (4-1) shipped in from Calder enroute to a half-length victory in the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay. In his previous attempt at 7-furlongs Gesu finished sixth, beaten by 9-lengths, in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder.

Leading all the way, Big Looie won his maiden debut over a field of 10 at Hawthorne December 27 and at 5-1 morning line odds he looks like an interesting prospect. His sire, Military, won several races at over 10 furlongs and his damsire, Cryptoclearance, won the Florida Derby enroute to a third-place finish in the Preakness and a second in the Belmont Stakes.

California Derby

As usual, trainer Todd Pletcher has a full stable of promising 3-year-olds on the Derby Trail and he sends Connemara to the starting gate as the 2-1 morning line favorite in the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields.

Connemara is undefeated with a win in a maiden and allowance race and Pletcher is looking to add to that scorecard with a win in the California Derby.

"We want to see continued development," said Pletcher in a Daily Racing Form news story. "We'd like to see him be a little more professional early and get a stalking position."

Ranger Heartley (3-1) has already lost to Connemara an 8 ½ -furlong allowance but he rebounded off of that defeat to win an 8 ½ -furlong race at Hollywood Park in final time of 1:43 2/5 seconds. Ranger Heartley has been working out good and looks to be competive in this spot.

Trainer Doug O’Neill takes European invader Thomas Baines (7-2) off the turf to give him a shot in the California Derby. In his two previous U.S. starts, Thomas Baines earned an 87 and 90 Brisnet Speed Figure and improved off both those races. I like his progression and if he contines to improve, he could be a factor in the exotics.

Spectacular Bid Stakes Racing Roundup

When I’m following a thoroughbred on the Kentucky Derby Trail, one of the things that I do not like to see is a trainer cut their horse back in distance. But that is exactly what Todd Pletcher who has taken over as the new trainer of Discreetly Mine plans to do when he sends him as the 5-2 morning line favorite to the starting gate of the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes today at Gulfstream.

"He was in very good condition when we got him," said Pletcher in a Mike Welsch Daily Racing Form news story. "He's trained forwardly since coming to our barn and we're just looking to get the season started on Saturday. I'm not sure what his best distance is so we'll just get started at six furlongs and see from there."

Since Pletcher does not know what is the best distance for Discreetly Mine, neither do I and the Spectacular Bid Stakes has shaped up to be a race that I most likely would pass.

I like Discreetly Mine and believe that he has a lot of potential. But, so far, Discreetly Mine has not done as well as I thought he would and I hope that Pletcher can improve on that.

Trainer Tony Dutrow has entered a pair of nice horses in Westover Wildcat and A Little Warm and they could be a factor in the Spectacular Bid. Westover Wildcat (6-1) appears to be the fastest of nine thoroughbreds entered in the race. In his last race, Westover Wildcat recorded a 101 Brisnet Speed Figure in winning the Bold Lad Stakes by 2 ¾ - lengths last October at Belmont. Since then, Westover Wildcat has been working out well posting two bullet works and he should be tough in this race.

At 8-1 morning line odds, Dutrow’s other entry, A Little Warm, looks interesting. In his last race, A Little Warm broke his maiden by 10 ¾ - lengths in a 6-furlong sprint at Philadelphia Park. He won that race in a keen 1:09 4/5 and he recorded a bullet work on December 17. A Little Warm looks like he could be ready to step up into stakes competition.

Wildcat Frankie (7-2) comes into the race with a debut win in 15 ½ - length romp December 12 at Calder. Wildcat Frankie recorded a 104 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort and he posted a bullet work on January 3.

Count Fleet, Turfway Prevue Racing Roundup

Ibboyee, the 8-5 morning line favorite, heads a field of eight 3-year-old thoroughbreds today in the $65,000 Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Ibboyee comes into the race with four wins in five starts, finishing off the board in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes last October at Belmont. In his last effort, Ibboyee drew clear in the 1 mile, 70-yard Damon Runyon Stakes at Aqueduct to win by 2 ½ -lengths and posted a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure. So Ibboyee should be tough in this spot today.

Turbo Speed, trained by Thomas Houghton, is the 7-2 second choice. Undefeated in three starts, Turbo Speed comes into the race with a 1 ½-length victory in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes at Philadelphia Park. Turbo Speed has never run in a route race but he gets plenty of stamina from his sire Louis Quatorze who won the 1996 Preakness and his damsire, Proud Truth, who won the 1985 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The 5-1 third choice, Peppi Knows has never been out of the money in five starts (5, 3-1-1) and he comes into the race with a second-place finish to Buddy’s Saint in the Remsen Stakes (G2). Peppi knows also has a nice pedigree. His sire, Stephen Got Even, sired the G3 winner Don't Get Mad and 2005 Eclipse champion and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy.

The horse that most intrigues me in this race is Laus Deo (6-1) and I’m watching to see if he moves forward off of his maiden-win in a 7-furlong sprint last out. His trainer, Tony Dutrow, says that Laus Deo has some maturing to do but he is improving with every race.

"He was a big dummy, needed the experience," said Dutrow in a David Grening Daily Racing Form news article. "I wanted to keep him two turns. I reluctantly ran him seven-eighths when the two-turn race didn't fill. He's an improving horse on the come."

Dutrow’s top 3-year-old, Winslow Homer, is on track to run in the the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. Winslow Homer is also one of my top Kentucky Derby picks but if Laus Deo posts an impressive win and continues to improve, he could become my top pick.

I really like the breeding of Laus Deo but you never know how these youngsters will do until they go to the track. In the past, there have been horses that I really liked but they were mediocre at best on the track. So, today, I will hold off on elaborating on Laus Deo’s breeding until he shows me that he may live up to it.

Stay tuned for more.

Turfway Prevue – Turfway Park

Try as I might, I just could not get excited about this race. At this point on the Derby Trail, it is hard for me to get excited about a sprint race and I’m anxious to see these youngsters stretch out to route races.

Kera’s Kitten, bred and owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, is the 5-2 morning line favorite in the field of nine entered in the $50,000 Turfway Prevue at Turfway Park. Kera’s Kitten adds blinkers, cuts back from a route to a 6 ½ -furlong sprint and tries dirt for the first time.

Lucky Chuck and Successful Score are the 3-1 second choice. In his last four races, Lucky Chuck has three impressive wins and a third-place finish. I like that.

Fish (5-1) looks like an interesting horse. With the success in recent years of Musket Man, The Pamplemousse and War Pass I’ve been following the Cherokee Run sire line thoroughbreds. So far I have not found any on the Derby Trail to match the success of the previously mentioned thoroughbreds.

Tropical Park Derby Racing Roundup

The $100,000 Tropical Park Derby (G3) today at Calder is the first stakes race of the New Year on the 2010 Kentucky Derby Trail. The Derby is on the grass but the connections of Barbaro (2006) and Cowboy Cal (2008) used it as a Kentucky Derby prep race.

Lost Aptitude, trained by Dale Romans, is the 5-2 morning line favorite. Lost Aptitude has only been out of the money once in five starts (5, 3-0-1) and he comes into the race with an impressive 5 ¼ -length win in 1 1/16 mile Grand Canyon Handicap last November at Churchill Downs.

Becky’s Kitten, bred and owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey and trained by Wesley Ward, is the 4-1 morning line second choice. Becky’s Kitten finished second to Bridgetown last September in the Summer Stakes (G3) at Woodbine and Bridgetown went on to finish a close second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) race. Becky’s Kitten also ran in that race but encountered trouble when steadied at the three eigths pole. The Summer Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf were contested at a mile but I belive that Becky's Kitten will do better at the longer distance. Worth noting though, is that regular rider Julien Leparoux switches his mount to Cat Park who finished third last out, beaten seven lengths by Lost Aptitude in the Grand Canyon Handicap.

Cat Park, along with Fly By Phil, is the 6-1 morning line third choice. Cat Park’s speed figures appear to low to me to be a factor and Fly By Phil has never ran on the grass. Regular rider Manoel Cruz switches his mount to Gator Tiger who at 12-1 morning line looks like an interesting long shot.

Gator Tiger is lightly raced with a first and a second in three starts but he has improved with each start. I like his progression and he has been working out great with multiple bullet works at the Calder track.

Another interesting long shot is Our Champion (10-1) who beat Gator Tiger by a neck last out and picks up high percentage jockey Eibar Coa who guided Our Champion to an impressive 6 ¼ -length maiden-breaking win last October. Our Champion also has a couple of bullet works at the Calder track and could be a factor in the exotic wagers.

Let's Talk Derby

Now that the CashCall Futurity is history, Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert claims his fifth win in the Futurity and moves ahead of D. Wayne Lukas as the trainer with the most Futurity wins.

Lookin At Lucky is pretty much a lock to win the Eclipse Award for 2-year-old champion and, if he isn’t there already, moves to the top of most people’s 2010 Kentucky Derby list.

The Holidays have put me behind but I hope to post my Derby list sometime before the start of the New Year.

In the meantime, if you are snowed in and suffering from a bad case of cabin fever or you’ve just been Derby dreamin, you may want to check out the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website Sunday for a live 2010 Kentucky Derby Chat at 4 p.m Eastern Standard Time. It’s easy to attend the chat. Just visit the website and click on Chat located on the tool bar located beneath the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds banner.

The chat is hosted by my friend Laura who is the creator of Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds and also a frequent poster on the Daily Racing Form FormBlog hosted by Dan Illman. Laura regularly has chats at her website and most of the chatters are the railbirds that make posts on Illman’s FormBlog.

Noted author and pedigree analyst Rommy Faversham has visited Laura’s chat room and Mr. Illman (also a noted author and he’s pretty good on pedigrees too) occasionally stops by for a visit.

I don’t know if Faversham or Illman will be at Sunday’s chat but one thing is for sure: talking Derby is good medicine to cure your cabin fever blues and jumpstart you on the 2010 Kentucky Derby trail.

I’ll see you at the chat.

Emotional Conformation Is Key To Success

I love to study Thoroughbred pedigrees and follow the juveniles on the Triple Crown Trail. Every year I find two or three horses I like, with nice pedigrees, but for one reason or another they do not live up to their breeding and their performance on the track is mediocre at best.

Thomas Herding Technique founder Kerry Thomas, in his essay Breeding for Behavior in the Hybrid Thoroughbred; Emotional Conformation, reapplying natural selection, says that in addition to physical conformation, Emotional Conformation is one of the keys to producing a successful equine athlete.

“It is not physical genetics alone that generate the successful athlete; it is the combination of both, Emotional Genetics and Physical Genetics. EthoGrading is an important aspect of the process for emotional genetics are revealed within the Emotional Conformation of the horse, and this is a key to adopting a more natural selection process to the mating program. There is a standard natural mantra that should not be forgotten that nature has provided for us: The mental capacity of the equine controls the physical output of the athlete.”…

“Nature provides the animal with the mental capacity it needs, exactly fitted to the requirements necessary to use the body in the environment it lives in. Think of the differences in horse size and mentality from breed to breed. Look back in history and you will see that the successful species was always matched naturally, mind to body. Indeed, for species on the move forward, the mental capacity is greater than the physical ability on its own; this allows for growth in evolution, this is what you should be breeding for in your thoroughbred athlete. This is the pure definition of natural selection; mental capacity, agility and focus that are best fitted to the needs within a given environment to survive. The artificial environment does not provide the canvas for nature to paint this picture as we select by paper quite often just who is mated to who and for what reason.”…

“When we select our breeding for success, we must remember how the process of evolution actually occurs. We like to look at pictures and we are fascinated by the changes in species physically through time. We also breed our race horses with how their physical make-up will operate in a given environment, or better said, what am I breeding for physically, turf, dirt or synthetic? It is not so much how the body is made to move over a given surface (environment) or how fast, as it is how the mental capacity is equipped to interpret the stimulus received. Physical evolution is secondary to mental evolution. Decision making ability stimulates physical change, not the other way around. The horse has an incredible ability to assimilate mentally and the thoroughbred is equipped to react very quickly to the directions given it. This is why understanding your individual horse’s Emotional Conformation and having a Psychological Profile plays an integral part [in producing the successful equine athlete].”

I like Thomas’ perspective on how to produce the champion Thoroughbred. To learn more about Emotional Conformation you can read the rest of the essay here and you can visit his website here.

Sid Fernando and Frank Mitchell recently posted blogs about Thomas and Emotional Conformation. Youbet’s Derek Simon also has a very good interview with Thomas on his radio show "Simon Says."

Great Racehorses Of The Decade

In a new series of articles for the British Horseracing Authority, turf writer Andrew Scott profiles Great Racehorses of the Decade.

In week nine, Scott profiles Great Races of the Decade.