Friday, November 24, 2017

Kentucky Jockey Club Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us this Saturday to the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs where ENTICED will go to the starting gate as the 4-1 morning line favorite in 91st running of the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Post time is 5:56 ET.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Enticed comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in two starts including a third-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1) on October 7. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ENTICED sat within range of a contested pace from the two path, got let out a notch after more than half way around the turn, angled out into path six from upper to mid-lane, rallied well enough to secure the show.

Enticed was only beaten by 3½ lengths to Good Magic who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). Enticed was one of my picks in that race and I like in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), too.
Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of Enticed, was a good middle-distance runner that compiled an 8-7-0 record in 17 starts with $5,754,720 in career earnings. Overall, he had seven wins and five second-place finishes in 14 route races.
Medaglia d’Oro finished second in his only start as a two year old but as a three year old he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
In the Preakness Stakes (G1), Medaglia d’Oro finished eighth but rebounded from that run to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He went on to complete his racing season as a three year old with wins in the nine-furlong Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
As a four year old, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Strub Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1). In addition, he finished second in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
At the age of five, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Donn Handicap (G1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (G1).
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Enticed is one of the better bred colts in this race and I look for him to be competitive.
ARRIVAL (12-1) is a long shot I like and he comes into this race for trainer Mark Casse with a 1-0-2 record in five starts including a maiden win in his last outing. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ARRIVAL set the pace early, angled off the rail in the far turn, repelled bids at the top of the lane and drew away late under a brisk drive.

Arrival led from gate to wire, setting slow fractions, but finished full of run to win impressively by 3 ¾ lengths.
Tapit, the sire of Arrival, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three year old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
Arrival was one of my sales picks as a yearling (Hip 161) at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. He’s yet to fully live up to his breeding but he’s improving with each race and time will tell if he can step up to earn graded stakes honors in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s the best-bred colt in this herd and I look for him to run a good race.
LONE SAILOR (12-1) comes into this race with a 1-1-1 record in four starts for trainer Tom Amoss including a second-place finish in the Street Sense Stakes to Gotta Go (6-1) who is also entered in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Street Sense:

LONE SAILOR was well placed early, shifted into the three path in the turn, made a bid into the lane, was under along drive and missed in the final stages.

Lone Sailor was behind runners at the top of the turn but found a hole and split horses to get up for second a head shy of victory.
Majestic Warrior, the sire of Lone Sailor, compiled a 2-0-0 in seven starts during his racing career with $239,229 in earnings including a win in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and a fourth-place finish in the Woody Stephens Stakes (G2).
Currently Majestic Warrior stands stud in Japan and as a stallion he’s sired numerous graded stakes winners including: Princess of Sylmar, Best Warrior, Lady Sabelia, Declan's Warrior and Mavic.
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Lone Sailor was one of my picks in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and I look for him to be competitive in this race.
Undefeated in two starts for trainer Robert Reid Jr., DIAMOND KING (20-1) steps up in class to make a bid for graded stakes honors. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

DIAMOND KING vied for advantage outside then edged clear near mid-stretch and stayed safe driving.

Quality Road, the sire of Diamond King, easily won his maiden debut, and only race as a two year old, in November of 2008. In his debut as a three year old, he finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in January. He followed that in February with a 4¼ length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and in March, Quality Road ran to a 1¾ length win over Dunkirk in the Florida Derby (G1).
In late April, Quality Road developed a quarter crack on his right front foot and that prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby. After a three month break, Quality Road returned to racing to win the Amsterdam Stakes (G2).
Quality Road completed his racing career with wins in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3), Donn Handicap (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Woodward Stakes (G1). He finished third in the Travers Stakes (G1) and second in both the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) and Whitney Handiciap (G1).
Diamond King has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Gotta Go (6-1), Quip (8-1) and Promised Fulfilled (8-1).


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


2017/2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 24, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
2. Bolt d’Oro, 14, Mick Ruis, $540,000
3. +Solomini, 12, Bob Baffert, $400,000
4. Firenze Fire, 10, Jason Servis, $407,500
5. +Free Drop Billy, 10, Dale Romans, $400,000
6. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli, $126,750
7. Bravazo, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $100,000
8. +Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans, $68,500
9. Givemeaminit, 2, Dallas Stewart, $150,000
10. Lone Sailor, 2, Tom Amoss, $50,000
11. Enticed, 2, Kiaran McLaughlin, $50,000
12. Take the One O One, 2, Brian Koriner, $36,345
13. Kowboy Karma, 1, Larry Jones, $70,000
14. Lionite, 1, Steve Asmussen, $25,000
15. Ayacara (GB), 1, Keith Desormeaux, $18,000
16. Ebben, 1, Steve Margolis, $7,875

+ = Horses picked as yearlings on my 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sales list.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
2. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $84,592
3. Roaring Lion (USA), 10, John Gosden, $75,986
4. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
5. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
6. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
7. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $91,264
8. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
9. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
10. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien, $28,605
11. Woodmax (GER), 1, Nicolas Clement, $23,610
12. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan, $7,182

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