Saturday, August 3, 2013

Two-Year-Old Ambassador Colt, Danaus, Looks Like Interesting Entry In 7th Race At Saratoga



To the best of my knowledge, when writing about potential Kentucky Derby horses, all of my blogs have been about graded-stakes prep races on the Triple Crown Trail. But, I thought I’d make an exception today as Danaus, a 2-year-old colt I wrote about in my July 18 blog, is making his maiden debut in the seventh race at Saratoga today.
I’m very interested to see how well Danaus (15-1) will perform in his first start. Here’s what I had to say about Danaus in my July blog:

I was recently looking at the pedigrees of 2-year-old Thoroughbreds and came upon Danaus (Ambassador-Dulcet Tone by Empire Maker) who is currently in training at Belmont Park. I like his pedigree and look forward to see how he fares during his juvenile racing season.
The Ancestral Herd of Danaus descends from Dark Ronald – the previously mentioned stallion that was purchased by Burchard Von Oettingen for the Royal German Stud. Dark Ronald was a foundation stallion and his sire line was one of the most successful lines in the history of the German turf.
The Dark Ronald Ancestral Herd produced 25 German Derby winners compared to Mr. Prospector's 11 Kentucky Derby winners. So, in the pedigree of Danaus you have two powerful Ancestral Herds in the sire line and damsire line - Dark Ronald and Fappiano, Mr. Prospector.
Acatenango, the grandsire of Danaus, was also the broodmare sire of Animal Kingdom.
Time will tell if Danaus lives up to his breeding.

Owned by John M. B. O’Connor, Danaus is trained by Thomas Albertrani who also trains Souper Lucky (4-1) for Live Oak Plantation. Danaus is the only colt in the field of eight that will be racing free of Lasix – and I like that.
His pedigree shows me that he has the potential to be competitive in classic competition. However, one never knows if these young colts will live up to their breeding and whether Danaus has the potential to be competitive on the Triple Crown Trail remains to be seen.
Practically all of the colts in the race are also making their first start. I didn’t have time to do an in-depth analysis of each horse. But upon a quick glance of the pedigrees, Bird Now (5-1) and King Cyrus (3-1) also look interesting.

8 comments:

  1. Thank you sir. As in all things....time will tell.
    JBALL

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks JBALL,

      Indeed, time will tell. Good Luck!

      Delete
  2. Hi Calvin :) Its time for the Travers so I thought I'd send you some stats on the last 32 editions of the race.

    The Travers by BSB numbers.

    12 - 1s = 37.5 %
    Street Sense - 1,2,4,22 TT
    Birdstone
    Ten Most Wanted
    Unshaded
    Will's Way
    Holy Bull
    Sea Hero
    Thunder Rumble
    Corporate Report
    Rhythm
    Easy Goer
    Forty Niner
    _____________________________________________________ 6 - 2s = 18.75 %
    Street Sense 1,2,4,22 TT
    Golden Ticket
    Point Given
    Java Gold 2,4,9 TT
    Chief's Crown
    Willow Hour
    ____________________________________________________

    2- 3s = 6%
    Summer Bird
    Lemon Drop Kid
    _____________________________________________________

    8- 4s = 25 %
    Stay Thirsty
    Street Sense 1,2,4,22 TT
    Bernardini
    Flower Alley
    Thunder Gulch
    Java Gold 2,4,9 TT
    Wise Times
    Temperence Hill
    _____________________________________________________

    2 - 5s = 6 %
    Afleet Express
    Play Fellow
    _____________________________________________________

    Zero 6s & 7s
    _____________________________________________________

    1 - 8 = 3%
    Coronado's Quest
    _____________________________________________________

    4 - 9s = 12.5 %
    Medaglia d Oro
    Java Gold 2,4,9 TT
    Carr de Naskra
    Runaway Groom
    _____________________________________________________

    1 -10 = 3 %
    Deputy Commander
    _____________________________________________________

    Zero - 11s, 12s, 13s
    _____________________________________________________

    1 - 14 = 3 %
    Alpha ( side note : Questionable DH with Golden Ticket no 1s in the race )
    _____________________________________________________

    Zero - 15s,16s,17s,18s,19s,20s,21s,23s
    _____________________________________________________

    1 -22 = 3%
    Street Sense 1,2,4,22 TT
    _____________________________________________________

    Anything higher than a 4 is very unusual.

    VerraZano is a 13.
    Orb is an 8.
    WTC is a 22 .
    _____________________________________________________

    I like Moreno as a horse buttZ... he's a 23 and this ain't the Derby .

    Golden Soul is a 1,5 TT buttZ... he's been a money burner for me. His form looks atrocious so he'll probably fire his shot :)

    _____________________________________________________

    That puts lines through 4 horses that will get bet. I'll do the numbers on Romansh , Transparent & War Dancer tonight.

    Of C-Horse PM is a 2 and a LEGIT contender.

    Good luck Calvin

    BSB





    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BSB,

      Thanks for your information on the winners of the Travers Stakes and the Female Family influence in their pedigree.

      As we've talked before, it's not surprising that Family 1 and Family 4 are the most dominant.

      Delete
  3. War Dancer is a 16 . He's out on the number. Romansh & Transparent are both 1s. They should have to be coupled buttZ... as per usual the powers that be ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks BSB,

      Now that I know the family influence, I'll have to take a look at the past performances.

      Delete
  4. Calvin

    Does Danaus show out turf pedigree? He is running on turf today at Belmont 2nd race 1 mile

    Mike

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mike,

      I was at the Keeneland sale today and just got your note.

      Danaus has turf breeding but I see that he finished in 4th-place today. He'll need to improve his game considerably in order to be competitive.

      Thanks for following my blog.

      Delete