To the best of my knowledge, when
writing about potential Kentucky Derby horses, all of my blogs have been about
graded-stakes prep races on the Triple Crown Trail. But, I thought I’d make an
exception today as Danaus, a 2-year-old colt I wrote
about in my July 18 blog, is making his maiden debut in
the seventh race at Saratoga today.
I’m
very interested to see how well Danaus (15-1) will perform in his first start. Here’s
what I had to say about Danaus in my July blog:
I was recently looking at the pedigrees of 2-year-old
Thoroughbreds and came upon Danaus (Ambassador-Dulcet Tone
by Empire Maker) who is currently in training at Belmont Park. I like his
pedigree and look forward to see how he fares during his juvenile racing
season.
The Ancestral Herd of Danaus descends from Dark Ronald – the
previously mentioned stallion that was purchased by Burchard Von Oettingen for
the Royal German Stud. Dark Ronald was a foundation stallion and his sire line
was one of the most successful lines in the history of the German turf.
The Dark Ronald Ancestral Herd produced 25 German Derby winners
compared to Mr. Prospector's 11 Kentucky Derby winners. So, in the pedigree of
Danaus you have two powerful Ancestral Herds in the sire line and damsire line
- Dark Ronald and Fappiano, Mr. Prospector.
Acatenango, the
grandsire of Danaus, was also the broodmare sire of Animal Kingdom.
Time will tell if Danaus lives up to his breeding.
Owned
by John M. B. O’Connor, Danaus is trained by Thomas Albertrani who also trains Souper
Lucky (4-1)
for Live Oak Plantation. Danaus is the only colt in the field of eight that
will be racing free of Lasix – and I like that.
His
pedigree shows me that he has the potential to be competitive in classic
competition. However, one never knows if these young colts will live up to
their breeding and whether Danaus has the potential to be competitive on the
Triple Crown Trail remains to be seen.
Practically
all of the colts in the race are also making their first start. I didn’t have
time to do an in-depth analysis of each horse. But upon a quick glance of the
pedigrees, Bird Now (5-1) and King
Cyrus (3-1)
also look interesting.
Thank you sir. As in all things....time will tell.
ReplyDeleteJBALL
Thanks JBALL,
DeleteIndeed, time will tell. Good Luck!
Hi Calvin :) Its time for the Travers so I thought I'd send you some stats on the last 32 editions of the race.
ReplyDeleteThe Travers by BSB numbers.
12 - 1s = 37.5 %
Street Sense - 1,2,4,22 TT
Birdstone
Ten Most Wanted
Unshaded
Will's Way
Holy Bull
Sea Hero
Thunder Rumble
Corporate Report
Rhythm
Easy Goer
Forty Niner
_____________________________________________________ 6 - 2s = 18.75 %
Street Sense 1,2,4,22 TT
Golden Ticket
Point Given
Java Gold 2,4,9 TT
Chief's Crown
Willow Hour
____________________________________________________
2- 3s = 6%
Summer Bird
Lemon Drop Kid
_____________________________________________________
8- 4s = 25 %
Stay Thirsty
Street Sense 1,2,4,22 TT
Bernardini
Flower Alley
Thunder Gulch
Java Gold 2,4,9 TT
Wise Times
Temperence Hill
_____________________________________________________
2 - 5s = 6 %
Afleet Express
Play Fellow
_____________________________________________________
Zero 6s & 7s
_____________________________________________________
1 - 8 = 3%
Coronado's Quest
_____________________________________________________
4 - 9s = 12.5 %
Medaglia d Oro
Java Gold 2,4,9 TT
Carr de Naskra
Runaway Groom
_____________________________________________________
1 -10 = 3 %
Deputy Commander
_____________________________________________________
Zero - 11s, 12s, 13s
_____________________________________________________
1 - 14 = 3 %
Alpha ( side note : Questionable DH with Golden Ticket no 1s in the race )
_____________________________________________________
Zero - 15s,16s,17s,18s,19s,20s,21s,23s
_____________________________________________________
1 -22 = 3%
Street Sense 1,2,4,22 TT
_____________________________________________________
Anything higher than a 4 is very unusual.
VerraZano is a 13.
Orb is an 8.
WTC is a 22 .
_____________________________________________________
I like Moreno as a horse buttZ... he's a 23 and this ain't the Derby .
Golden Soul is a 1,5 TT buttZ... he's been a money burner for me. His form looks atrocious so he'll probably fire his shot :)
_____________________________________________________
That puts lines through 4 horses that will get bet. I'll do the numbers on Romansh , Transparent & War Dancer tonight.
Of C-Horse PM is a 2 and a LEGIT contender.
Good luck Calvin
BSB
BSB,
DeleteThanks for your information on the winners of the Travers Stakes and the Female Family influence in their pedigree.
As we've talked before, it's not surprising that Family 1 and Family 4 are the most dominant.
War Dancer is a 16 . He's out on the number. Romansh & Transparent are both 1s. They should have to be coupled buttZ... as per usual the powers that be ...
ReplyDeleteThanks BSB,
DeleteNow that I know the family influence, I'll have to take a look at the past performances.
Calvin
ReplyDeleteDoes Danaus show out turf pedigree? He is running on turf today at Belmont 2nd race 1 mile
Mike
Mike,
DeleteI was at the Keeneland sale today and just got your note.
Danaus has turf breeding but I see that he finished in 4th-place today. He'll need to improve his game considerably in order to be competitive.
Thanks for following my blog.