Saturday, January 14, 2012

Pasco Stakes Racing Roundup

For Oby goes to the starting gate today for trainer Pedro Maestre as the 5-2 morning line favorite in the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs racetrack.

For Oby comes into the Pasco with a narrow loss by a nose to Ancient Rome in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on December 3. But jockey Julio Garcia, who rode For Oby in that race, switches his mount to Seven Kind (8-1) who is a long shot I like in today’s race.

Seven Kind finished third in his last race to Algorithms and Consortium, two promising Bernardini colts I profiled in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook, and if he repeats the form of his last race, he should be competitive.

Adirondack King (4-1) comes into the race with four straight wins at Parx Racing, including a 6-length romp in the Christopher Elser Memorial Stakes, and looks to be very competitive. He also has a good mix of speed and stamina in his pedigree.

Lawyer Ron, the sire of Adirondack King, excelled on the Kentucky Derby trail as a 3-year-old, winning the Southwest Stakes (G3), Risen Star Stakes (G3), Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2). Brocco, the damsire of Adirondack King, won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Jostle, the dam of Adirondack King, was an outstanding racer with over $1.3 million in career earnings and winner of the Alabama Stakes (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2), and Cotillion Handicap (G2) during her 3-year-old season.

Prospective (7-2) showed nice progression as a 2-year-old until he finished dead last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs on November 5. If you throw out that race, Prospective has two wins, including a 2-length romp in the Grey Stakes (G3), and a second-place finish for trainer Mark Casse.

A bullet work out on January 1 could indicate that Prospective is ready to run a good race and if he returns to his previous form, he could be competitive in the Pasco.

Malibu Moon, the sire of Prospective, only raced twice until he was retired with a slab fracture. But at stud, Malibu Moon has produced some nice sprint and middle-distance horses such as Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon and Malibu Mint.

Awesome Again, the damsire of Prospective, was a good middle-distance runner that won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and earned classic honors by winning the Queen’s Plate Stakes, one of the most prestigious races in Canada.

Good luck with your picks.


  1. Calvin,
    Great analysis as always. I'm looking forward to another Triple Crown season.Did you watch the Smarty Jones stales? The second place horse was gaining at the end after going five wide around both turns. Maybe a horse to watch?

  2. Anonymous,

    Thanks for the compliment and for following the blog. I wish that I had the time to do the write-up of the Smarty Jones Stakes.

    Reckless Jerry finished with nice energy and, depending on the other entries, he could be very competitive in the Southwest Stakes.

    Time will tell.

  3. Calvin,
    I really like your blog. I also like Battle Force but wonder what's up? He he has not worked out since Generous Stakes. Do you know if he is laid-up or off the TC trail?

  4. Anonymous,

    Thanks, I appreciate that.

    No, I haven’t heard any word about Battle Force. One never knows how these young colts will fare from their juvenile to sophomore season. His last race was on November 27 and there have been no work outs since.

    He could have had a setback but I’d like to think that trainer John Sherriffs gave Battle Force a couple of months off to get refreshed and just “be a horse.”

    I like that because it is so important for these young colts to have the appropriate balance between work and play in order to develop the proper physical and mental health to be successful on the Triple Crown Trail.

    Barring any unforeseen setback that we don’t know about, I would expect to see Battle Force back in training in the next couple of weeks – at least, here’s hoping.

    Only time will tell.

    1. Traded emails with someone who knows....he indicated that Battle Force would return to the races soon but is not nominated nor considered for TC races.

  5. Anonymous,

    Thanks for the update.

    I don't know anything about the history of Battle Force and while I would have liked to seen him make a classic bid, his welfare is most important and I'm glad to hear that he will soon return to racing.

    Thank you.

    1. This was posted by Woodford today on their Twitter page.....

      Woodford Racing ‏ @woodfordracing

      · Open

      We are excited to have our winner and graded stakes placed BATTLE FORCE back to training.

  6. Anonymous,

    Thanks for the update. I saw that and retweeted it @CalvinLCarter. It's good to see Battle Force return to training.

    Four of the five young colts I was most interested are now off the trail: Battle Force took some time off, Sky Kingdom, Algorithms and Consortium are injured. I did not think that Discreet Dancer was a legitimate Derby horse but i thought that he would be a factor - next race will tell the tale.

    Going forward, two that I'm most interested in are Bodemeister and Fly Lexis Fly. I like their pedigrees and will be looking to see how they fare on the trail.

    Castaway, El Padrino, Mark Valeski, Alpha, Union Rags, Empire Way, Done Talking and Howe Great are also a few I'm following with interest.

    Time will tell.

    Thanks for following and contributing to the my blog.

    1. I'll follow you on twitter and comment there. I'm P3Tacco