Saturday, February 27, 2010

Derby Trail Stakes Racing Roundup - 2/27

Trainer Michael Machowsky already has a nice Kentucky Derby prospect in undefeated Caracortado and he’s hoping to add another one to his Derby roster when he sends the 5-2 morning line favorite Nextdoorneighbor to the starting gate of the $150,000 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita.

After two previous attempts, Nextdoorneighbor broke his maiden last month and he will be making his stakes debut in the Sham. Nextdoorneighbor has been working out good with stablemate Caracortado and a bullet work February 15 suggests that he could be ready to run a good race. But, I’m not so sure he is as good as Caracortado, who I like a lot, and I believe there are others in here that could pull off the upset.

Lightly-raced Kettle River (6-1) looks like he could be ready to run a real good race. In his maiden debut last August, Kettle River finished a poor sixth, beaten by 9 ½ - lengths in a 6-furlong sprint at Saratoga. Trainer Eoin Harty gave Kettle River a three month break and brought him back in 8.5-furlong race on the turf which he won by 1 ¼ - lengths.

Last month, Kettle River won another 8.5-furlong race at Santa Anita and earned a 92 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. His speed figures have improved with every race and I believe that he will be very competitive in this race.

At 10-1 morning line odds, Outlaw Man looks like an interesting long shot. His last three races were on the turf and trainer Ken McPeak drops him back in distance for today’s race. Outlaw Man broke his maiden last time out and he has finished in the money in his last two races. I look for him to be competitive.

In his maiden debut last September, Setsuko (3-1) finished fourth in a 5 ½ - furlong sprint at Del Mar. Since then, Setsuko has run in five route races, finishing in the money in every outing. His speed figures are consistently in the 80’s and on par with the other runners in this race. I look for him to be competitive and would not be surprised if he won.

Borderland Derby

The $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park is not a graded-stakes race and does not count in earnings for the Kentucky Derby. However, it is a scoring race in the Road ToThe Roses contest.

Tango Tango, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, is the 9-5 morning line favorite. But, I like the second-choice Storming Saint (5-2) the best.

Storming Saint, powering home in a 13-length romp, broke his maiden last November running in a mile route race at Zia Park. He came back in December and finished third in a 6-furlong stakes race at Sunland Park. Since then, he has been working out good and his bullet work February 20 indicates he could be ready for another good race.

Guiltbyassociation (10-1) and Raise The Bridle (25-1) look like a couple of interesting long shot possibilities.

Guiltbyassociation, like last year’s Borderland Derby runnerup Mine That Bird, was sired by Birdstone. Guiltbyassociation had previously raced on the turf in California. But, earlier this month, it looks like Guiltbyassociation found the Sunland Park dirt surface more appealing as he finally broke his maiden by a nose in a 6-furlong sprint. Guiltbyassociation earned and 84 speed figure for that effort and he may be ready to run another good race.

Raise The Bridle has only one race to his credit and he lost that by a nose to Guiltbyassociation. It looks like Raise The Bridle could, perhaps, be in over his head, but I like his odds and he has a nice pedigree. His sire, Spanish Steps, is a full-brother to Unbridled’s Song. On the female line, Raise The Bridle gets stamina influence from Gulch, Wavering Monarch and Ribot.

At 25-1 odds, I believe he is worth a small wager.


  1. Hi Calvin the Sham stakes has been cancelled. Dirt is on it way BACK,
    My Sham stakes selections:
    Kettle River has the top spot. Eoin pointed this colt for the Sham Stakes as he pointed another colt yet to named, but will, just keep reading. Eoin has brought the colt along nicely and I rated this colt as Eoin best chance at 136 Kentucky Derby.

    Dartley Stables enter the colt in a Maiden sprint race at 60k back in August 2009 and ran 3rd into the stretch at Saratoga.

    Edgar had the mount that afternoon in the rain, and that should tell you a lot since Edgar rode both Discreetly Mine and D'Funnybone at the same meet. HINT!

    Since coming west and stretching out, the colt is 2 for 2 improving each time out.

    Let me put that into regular terms. No other horse in this race has won back to back whether covering distance or sprinting and no other horse has ran in a Maiden 60K.

    This is a Win Star Farm, LLC colt out of Congaree. (TOUGH)

    Also, keep this mind. Eoin also trains American Lion. Comparing the workouts for the two leading colts, you got it Kettle Rivers workouts look as good as American Lion.

    Kettle River has a dosage of 3.00 and is breed for distance of ground, thus the 1 1/8 is what the colt needs, not that I wouldn't pick the colt at a shorter distance against this hope to past on field. The colt is far above the class of the field.

    Recent workouts
    Kettle River
    02/21/2010 SA 5F :59.80 All Weather Track Fast H
    02/09/2010 SA 5F 1:00.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    02/01/2010 SA 5F :59.80 All Weather Track Fast H
    01/25/2010 HOL 5F :59.20 All Weather Track Fast H
    01/15/2010 SA 4F :48.20 All Weather Track Fast H
    01/02/2010 SA 5F 1:00.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/27/2009 SA 5F 1:00.40 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/21/2009 SA 6F 1:12.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/15/2009 HOL 5F :59.00 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/09/2009 HOL 5F 1:00.80 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/01/2009 HOL 5F 1:00.80 All Weather Track Fast H

    American Lion work out schedule
    American Lion
    02/24/2010 SA 4F :48.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    02/08/2010 SA 5F 1:00.40 All Weather Track Fast H
    02/01/2010 SA 5F 1:00.00 All Weather Track Fast H
    01/25/2010 HOL 6F 1:14.60 All Weather Track Fast H
    01/14/2010 SA 6F 1:12.00 All Weather Track Fast H
    01/07/2010 SA 5F :59.40 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/29/2009 SA 5F 1:01.80 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/23/2009 SA 4F :47.20 All Weather Track Fast H
    12/17/2009 SA 4F :51.00 All Weather Track Fast H

    Second Choice:
    The Stakes money earners (WOLF TAIL) over the maiden and claiming allowance runners in here.

    First I like the jockey switch to the lady Ms. Sutherland.

    The colt net earnings was 100K as a two year old. (Class).
    Was bet to 5-1 against the Robert B. Lewis stakes winner in his initial route race. You might think that race was terrible race since several horse sweep past the colt in the lane. But look real close , and you will find the colt was carrying 122 to several other carrying 116 due to race conditions.

    He was not suppose to win, gining so much weight. But the experience of routing was gain. Comeback on a 6 1/2 furlong race and was closing with every stride.


    NO SUCH BAD LUCK TODAY! Doug O'Neil is a master in disguise at preparing these young colts. I tap the colt a close second to Kettle River. at 15-1, I guarantee the colt hit the board or win if Kettle River does not make it to the starting gate.

  2. Barry,

    I like Kettle River too. I'll have to take another look at Wolf Tail. Thanks for the tip.

    I hope that you had the Storming Saint/Raise The Bridle Exacta in the Sunland Derby. The time was a slow 1:45.27. But Raise The Bridle has room to improve off this race. Only time will tell how much he improves.

    A couple of points of interest: Raise The Bridle has an interesting pedigree. His sire, Spanish Steps, is a full-brother to Unbridled’s Song. The owners: Double Eagle Ranch and Buena Suerte Equine are the same connections of last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

  3. Great call with Storming Saint winning on the DQ.

    Raise The Bridle continues to be a Maiden. Ouch!

    82 Beyers for the final time.

    Do you know where to get all beyers for each races ?

    I wonder if there is a published website for beyer like for workouts.

    The filly Amen Hallelujah post a beyers 100 in 1:37.16
    But Radiohead 1:35.9 was much faster, and Nick Zito colt Miner's Reserve 1:35.87.
    Both colts should have earned above 105 beyers.

    Let me know if you know where I can find all recorded beyers. Thanks

  4. Barry,

    I don't know where you can find all of the recorded Beyers.

    Dan Illman posts the highest Beyers for the weekend when he makes a new post on his blog usually on Monday or Tuesday of the following week. Here's the Beyers from two weeks ago:

    Also, here is a link that shows the highest Beyer for the year:

    I hope that helps.

  5. Barry,

    Here's Dan Illman's Beyer updates from this weekend:

  6. Hi Calvin and thanks for the information.

    I have so many question concerning the beyer issued at GP. Feb 27 recorded beyers for several runners over the same distance. Very Inconsistent! How does the filly rate 6 lengths faster but yet ran much slower.

    Amen Hallelujah (f) GP 27 Feb 1M Beyer 100 time: 1:37
    Miner's Reserve GP 27 Feb 1M Beyer 94 1:35 4/5
    Radiohead (GB) GP 27 Feb 1M Beyer 94 1:36

  7. Barry,

    The credibility of Beyer Speed Figures has been an off and on again debate for well over a year (maybe two years) by many of the posters on Dan Illman's DRF Formblog. The same points you make have been made over and over again. The criticism became so vocal that Andy Beyer addressed some issues and a few adjustments have been made. But most folks are not satisfied.

    There also has been a big debate about the timer at Gulfstream Park and how it is not accurate.

    I don't know the answer.

    For several years now, I have used Brisnet and all of the trainers free pp's listed on my blog page use Brisnet. I only use the DRF when I can not get the Brisnet pp's.

  8. I agree, maybe the DRF should re consider the usage of the speed figure in their publication.

    It's just not accurate.