Classic Champion Thoroughbreds

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, And Behavior Index

It’s races like the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), which was raced Saturday at Churchill Downs, that shows my brother, Dallas, and I, that the adjustments we are making to the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® are on target, and we are excited about the progress made since the debut of the software in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

Congratulations to all who may have used my Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) selections as a two dollar wager on the any of the exotics netted them the Exacta ($37.80), Trifecta ($320.20) and Superfecta ($1,474) if you used Gun Runner who was my top honorable mention.

This year’s Belmont Stakes (G1) also provided a nice payoff to blog readers that used my picks, netting them the Exacta ($13.60), Trifecta ($109.50) and Superfecta ($570.00).

Our software picks for the Kentucky Derby (G1) were also very good, and, you can read about those results here. The Preakness results were even better and you can read about that here. In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software was also instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.

The latest development that Dallas and I have made to the software is the addition of a Behavior Index and it’s already showing tremendous results. Horse behavior is the final piece of the breeding puzzle and it has always been an important part of my analysis of the Thoroughbred. A good mind, the ability of a horse to focus during the heat of a race is so important.

Followers of my blog know that the study of Equine behavior was also important to the late Federico Tesio, a world-renowned owner, breeder and trainer of Thoroughbred racehorses. The right behavior is what Tesio looked for in the horses he bred or inspected at auction, and, during his lifetime, Tesio bred an incredible 21 Italiano Derby winners.

Horse behavior was also important to Franco Varola, a contemporary of Tesio and an equally-renowned writer, author and developer of the Dosage theory. Varola’s Dosage system (not the one commonly used today) consisted of five “aptitudinal” groups, and he was most interested in the behavioral traits and characteristics that each sire transmitted to his offspring.

In Typology of the Racehorse (JA Allen, 1974), Varola noted: “The differences between the five aptitudinal groups are of essence or character. It matters very little whether a racehorse is 16 hands or 16.2, or whether it is chestnut or brown; but it does matter a lot the way he behaves in actual racing, whether he is consistent or erratic, brilliant or slow, bellicose or resigned, in other words which pattern or mode of being is he expressing...It is of great utility to be able to distinguish between these various aptitudes, this being something that plays an effective part in mating.”

My own study, as well as my study of Tesio and Varola, laid the groundwork for my understanding about the importance of horse behavior. So, it was an easy decision to collaborate on a book about horse behavior with Thomas Herding Technique founder Kerry Thomas when he asked me to help him write about his Equine studies. The book we co-authored, Horse Profiling: The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes, was published by Trafalgar Square Books in April of 2012. In the book, we note that good horse behavior or Emotional Conformation is vitally important and it’s the final piece of the breeding puzzle necessary to produce equine champions.

That phrase “Emotional Conformation” was coined by my friend Larry Knepper (@LDknepper and @EmotionalEquine) who, at the time, was the business manager for Kerry Thomas and it was used to describe the type of work Thomas did in analyzing horse behavior.

With the addition of the Behavior Index to the software, Dallas and I are now able to add behavioral analysis to the final equation of what it takes to produce a Classic Champion Thoroughbred or top quality graded stakes competitor.

Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree of the horse if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.

For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.

In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.

Some unique features of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®:

It unlocks the secret of the Ancestral Herd influence.

Is a valuable handicapping tool that shows in the profile score which horses have the potential to be top-quality stakes winners or a classic winner of races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont.

Is a valuable breeding analytical tool that shows horse owners and breeders how a mare can upgrade or downgrade a stallion she is bred to through the profile score of the foal from that mating.

Shows if the foal has the potential to be a quality stakes horse or classic champion.

Shows horse owners how their entire bloodstock can be upgraded by using the profile score to help them make the best breeding decisions resulting in less overbreeding and fewer potential equine welfare issues.

Is a valuable Thoroughbred sales analytical tool that shows buyers how to make the best decisions and investments when buying horses at auction.

Shows which horses purchased at auction may have the potential to be a top-quality stakes winner while a select few will have a profile score that indicates they could be a winner of a classic race like the Kentucky Derby.

If you are planning to breed, or purchase at auction, a potential classic-winning Thoroughbred, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need to take the guesswork out of buying and breeding champion racehorses.

The empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will easily show you which horses have the potential to be classic champions while other horses may only be quality stakes winners.

The profile will give you the important information necessary to make the best decisions and investments when breeding or buying horses at auction.

For a free consultation, please contact us at my website Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC or give us a call at (502) 296-6076.

Friday, November 27, 2015

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Racing Roundup

In addition to the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” will also take us this Saturday to the Twin Spires of Churchill Downs where Airoforce will go to the starting gate as the 3-1 morning-line favorite in what appears to be a wide-open, 89^th running of the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). Post time is 5:35 p.m. ET.

Airoforce comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in three starts, all on the turf, for trainer Mark Casse, including a win in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) and a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Here’s a look at the video and chart call of his last race:

AIROFORCE, in close entering the first turn, rated between rivals past the half mile marker, angled out progressing in mid-stretch, rallied between runners to be on near even terms in deep stretch and kept on gamely.

There are several horses that could vie for first place honors in this race and it remains to be seen if Airoforce can score the win. However, his breeding indicates that 8½ furlongs is well within his range of competitiveness.

Colonel John, the sire of Airoforce, was a very competitive colt that compiled a 2-2-0 record in four starts as a two year old including a first-place finish in the Real Quiet Stakes and a second-place finish in the CashCall Futurity Stakes (G1), both at 8½ furlongs.

As a three year old, Colonel John won the Sham Stakes (G3) and Santa Anita Derby (G1), both at nine furlongs, in route to a sixth-place finish in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. He later went on to win the 10 furlong Travers Stakes and closed his three-year-old season with a 3-0-1 record in seven starts.

Regular jockey Julien Leparoux has ridden Airoforce in all three of his previous starts and I look for them to run another good race in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

Mor Spirit (7-2) ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert and he comes into this race with 1-1-0 record in two starts. Here’s the video and chart call of his maiden win:

MOR SPIRIT stalked the pace off the rail, bid three deep into the second turn and alongside the runner-up leaving that turn, took the lead nearing mid-stretch, inched away approaching the sixteenth pole and won clear under a moderate hand ride.

Mor Spirit ran comfortably in third until the three eighths pole, then gradually moved up to take the lead and cantered home to win by an impressive 4¼ lengths. Despite his stalking trip, Mor Spirit appeared to be in control throughout the race and the ease of his win suggests that he may be very competitive in this race.

Eskendereya, the sire of Mor Spirit, was my 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite until an injury took him off the trail. During his career, Eskendereya compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts which culminated in a 9¾ length win in the 2010 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).

Other key stakes wins included the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Pilgrim Stakes.

Mo Tom (8-1) has compiled a 2-0-1 record in three starts and he comes into this race off of a one length win in the one mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on November 1. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

MO TOM was unhurried early, fanned into the seven path in the turn, rallied into the lane, took over command in the stretch, drew clear and held sway in the final stages.

The finish time of 1:36.78 is what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail and his breeding indicates that he could be competitive in this race.

Uncle Mo, the sire of Mo Tom, was undefeated in three starts as a two year old with wins in the Champagne Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and he was picked as the 2010 Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Colt.

As a three year old, Uncle Mo won the Timely Writer Stakes and finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). The Friday before the Kentucky Derby, Uncle Mo was scratched from the race with a mysterious ailment which was later diagnosed as a liver disease called cholangiohepatitis.

Jockey Corey Lanerie returns to the irons and another move forward will make Mo Tom competitive in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

Other horses that could, perhaps, be competitive include Gun Runner (8-1), Perfect Saint (30-1) and Annual Report (5-1).

*****

Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.

2015/2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000

2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000

3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000

4. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130

5. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000

6. Cocked and Loaded, 10. Larry Rivelli, $280,840

7. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375

8. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600

9. R Rated Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $78,200

10. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809

11. Harlan Punch, 2, Tom Amoss, $138,000

12. Hollywood Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,000

13. Portfolio Manager, 2, Chad Brown, $50,000

14. Tizarunner, 2, Mark Casse, $44,948

15. Unbridled Outlaw, 2, Dale Romans, $14,100

16. Found Money, 1, Doug O’Neill, $129,000

17. Van Damme, 1, Robert Gorham, $31,290

18. Sail Ahoy, 1, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $25,000

18. Stickstatelydude, 1, Greg Burchell, $25,000

20. Rare Candy, 1, David Hofmans, $24,000

21. Conquest Windycity, 1, Mark Casse, $7,050

Remsen Stakes Racing Roundup

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Empire State Saturday where Mohaymen will go to the starting gate as the 8-5 morning line favorite in the 101^st running of the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time is 1:50 ET.

Undefeated in two starts, Mohaymen comes into this race for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin off of a 1¾-length victory in the one mile Nashua Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on November 4. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

MOHAYMEN moved up into a contending position down the backstretch, departed it from the three path, pressed the issue as the widest of a trio on the turn, bid in earnest as the field headed into the stretch, came inward to meet and draw up shoulder to shoulder with MAGNA LIGHT in upper stretch, bested that one the rest of the way to the furlong marker to emerge as the new leader, drifted out somewhat in the last sixteenth, particularly after some left handed stick work, held off the second place finisher though, under a hand drive finishing the race.

The time of 1:36.01 is what I like to see in a young colt on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Mohaymen is a sire-line descendant of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he has the breeding to be competitive in the Remsen Stakes (G2).

Tapit, the sire of Mohaymen, was undefeated in two starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3). As a 3-year-old, Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of the season but did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

Regular jockey Junior Alvarado returns to the irons and I look for the pair to be competitive in this race.

A mild long shot I like in this race is Sail Ahoy (6-1) who also ran in the Nashua and finished third, just two lengths shy of victory. Here’s his chart call:

SAIL AHOY devoid of early foot, picked up interest and proceeded to vacate the inside route leaving the five-sixteenths marker, swung three wide into the stretch and had a good finish down the outside to secure the show.

Sail Ahoy comes into this race with a 1-0-2 record in four starts for trainer Claude “Shug” McGaughey. With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he also has the breeding to be competitive and should like the stretch out to nine furlongs.

Bernardini, the sire of Sail Ahoy, did not race as a 2-year-old but at the age of three, he was a fast colt that won races from a mile to 10-furlongs.

He broke his maiden on his second start running a mile at Gulfstream Park in 1:35.57. That’s the kind of time I like to see a young colt run in a mile. Bernardini went on to become a Classic Champion Thoroughbred, compiling a 6-1-0 record in eight starts with $3,060,480 in career earnings.

Notable races won by Bernardini in route to becoming the 2006 Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male include: Withers Stakes (G3, 8-furlongs), Preakness Stakes (G1, 9½-furlongs), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2, 8½ furlongs), Travers Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs), Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1, 10 furlongs) and he finished second, a length behind Invasor, winner of the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1, 10 furlongs).

Jockey Joel Rosario has ridden Sail Ahoy in all four of his previous starts and I look for them to run another good race in the Remsen Stakes (G2).

Another long shot I like is Donegal Moon (15-1) who comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 1-1-1 record in four starts. He’s stepping up in class and he’s yet to win a stakes race. However, he’s steadily improving and he broke his maiden in his last start. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

DONEGAL MOON set the pace early, angled off the rail into the far turn then drew away late in the stretch under a brisk drive.

Donegal Moon led from gate to wire and his finish time of 1:39.06 is slower than I like. However he also is sire-line descendant of the Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he should be competitive in this race.

Malibu Moon, the sire of Donegal Moon, made only two starts as a two year old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.

At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher and Malibu Mint.

Donegal Moon will have to improve his game to secure the win in the Remsen Stakes (G2) but I look for him to run a good race.

Honorable mention goes to Flexibility (3-1), Gift Box (4-1) and Ravenheart (30-1). They could, perhaps, be competitive but I’m not too keen on a win by either of them.