Saturday, April 27, 2013

Derby Trial Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” finally comes to an end today at Churchill Downs today where nine 3-year-old Thoroughbreds will go to the starting gate in the 89th running of the $175,000 Derby Trial Stakes (G3) which is the final prep race on the Derby Trail. Trainer Bob Baffert will send Zee Bros to the Trial as the 5-2 morning line favorite and makes a jockey switch putting Mike Smith in the irons.
In his last race, Zee Bros broke sharply from the gate to take the lead and never trail en route to a 2½-length maiden victory. His fractional splits were pretty fast and the 105 Brinsnet Speed Figure he earned for that performance is the highest in today’s field.
 Two recent back-to-back bullet workouts could have Zee Bros ready to fire from the gate and with his front running style he’ll go fast and hard and could be a tough competitor in today’s race.
Tour Guide at 10-1 morning-line odds is an interesting long shot. He comes into the Trial from the barn of new trainer D Wayne Lukas who also has entered Titletown Five at 5-1 morning-line odds. I wrote about Tour Guide in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook, and was curious to see if he would be given a classic campaign but his former trainer Bret Calhoun ran him in only in sprints.
Here’s what I wrote about Tour Guide last December:

Whether Tour Guide has classic potential remains to be seen. But he has good speed and his breeding suggests that he should be able to stretch out in distance and be competitive on the Derby Trail.
Broken Vow, the sire of Tour Guide, did not race as a 2-year-old but he was a pretty good middle-distance runner that only finished out of the money once in 14 starts and compiled an 8-2-2 record in 12 route starts.
At the age of three, Broken Vow won the Sir Barton Stakes. As a 4-year-old, Broken Vow won the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (G2), Ben Ali Stakes (G3), R.R.M. Carpenter Jr. Memorial Stakes and the Skip Away Stakes.
Broken Vow’s best runners to date on the Derby trail have been Interactif, Private Vow and Done Talking.
Tour Guide’s damsire, Came Home, was a pretty good sprinter and router that compiled a 9-0-0 record in 12 lifetime starts. He was a perfect four wins in four starts sprinting while he won five of eight route races.
As a 2-year-old, Came Home won the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (G3). At the age of three, Came Home won the San Vicente Stakes (G2), San Rafael Stakes (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) en route to a sixth-place finish in the 2002 Kentucky Derby.
The tail-female line of Tour Guide traces back to Turk Mare (Family 23-b) and that line produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds I’ll Have Another (2012), Mine That Bird (2009), Lil E. Tee (1992), Winning Colors (1988), Affirmed (1978), Tim Tam (1958), Zev (1923). Byrn Mawr (1904) and Kingman (1891).Tour Guide’s fifth dam, Patelin, is also the fifth dam of I’ll Have Another.

Tour Guide has the breeding to be competitive in today’s race and a recent bullet workout could have him ready to run a good race at a nice price.
Since finishing off the board in his maiden debut, Ruble has been almost near perfect and comes into today’s race with two first-place finishes and two second-place finishes where he narrowly lost by a half-length in both races.
In his last race, Ruble posted a 1¾-length victory running a mile in the slop at Gulfstream Park on April 5. His finish time of 1:36.93 was pretty decent and a repeat of that performance could make him competitive in today’s race.

*****

The winner of the Derby Trial Stakes (G3) will receive 20 points while second-place will yield eight points, the third-place finisher will receive four points, and the fourth-place finisher will receive two points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated April 27, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Orb, 150, Shug McGaughey III, $840,000
2 = Verrazano, 150, Todd Pletcher, $810,000
3 = Goldencents, 129, Doug O’Neill, $1,208,000
4 = Java’s War, 122, Ken McMcPeek, $651,772
5 = Overanalyze, 110, Todd Pletcher, $908,381
6 = Revolutionary, 110, Todd Pletcher, $720,000
7 = Lines of Battle, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,261,089
8 = Vyjack, 70, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000
9 = Will Take Charge, 60, D. Wayne Lukas, $512,971
10 = Itsmyluckyday, 50, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $593,600
11 = Govenor Charlie, 50, Bob Baffert, $400,000
12 = Black Onyx, 50, Kelly Breen, $317,130
13 = Palace Malice, 50, Todd Pletcher, $200,000
14 = Normandy Invasion, 44, Chad Brown, $258,000
15 = Frac Daddy, 44, Ken McPeek, $240,596
16 = Mylute, 42, Tom Amoss, $363,365
17 = Oxbow, 36, D. Wayne Lukas, $316,000
18 = Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500
19 = Charming Kitten, 20, Todd Pletcher, $206,000
20 = Winning Cause, 20, Todd Pletcher, $137,250

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Lexington Coolmore Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” travels to Keeneland today where 11 horses will go to the starting gate in the 32nd running of the $200,000 Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G3). A win in today’s race is worth 20 points and that could, perhaps, qualify the winner to enter the Kentucky Derby (G1) starting gate. Currently, Charming Kitten is ranked 20th with 20 Derby points and $206,000 in stakes earnings.
Trainer Ken McPeek will send the filly Pure Fun to the starting gate as the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite. Pure Fun comes into the race with a 3-1-2 record in nine starts. In her debut as a 3-year-old in March, Pure Fun finished third in the Fathead Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park, earning a 95 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.
Pure Fun has room to improve in her second start of the season and another move forward will make her competitive in today’s race.
After finishing in eighth-place in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Sunbean (4-1) will start for the barn trainer Michael Maker and veteran Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens will be in the irons. I didn’t like Sunbean for the win in that race, but, I thought he would run better. Here’s the chart call:

SUNBEAN settled well back in the field, moved closer with a half-mile to run, advanced inside on the far turn, steadied while blocked at the quarter pole, continued blocked in upper stretch, steadied again nearing the furlong marker, altered course to the outside and also lost any chance.   

Prior to that race, Sunbean had compiled a 3-1-0 record in four starts including an impressive 4¾-length victory in the Gentilly Stakes. A return to that form and a recent sharp four-furlong workout at Churchill Downs could have Sunbean ready to run a good race.
An interesting long shot in this race is Wings of Fortune (15-1) who is also trained by Maker. Wins of Fortune did not race as a 2-year-old. He finished fourth in his maiden debut last January, and since then he’s compiled a 1-1-0 record in three career starts.
Wings of Fortune has an interesting pedigree with Fusaichi Pegasus as his sire and Lear Fan as the damsire. The tail-female family of Wings of Fortune traces back to the Reine-de-Course mare Gay Hostess who was the dam of Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Majestic Prince and the third-dam of Real Quiet.
This is the time of year 3-year-old colts can make a lot of improvement and a recent bullet workout could have Wings of Fortune ready to run a good race.
Where’s Dominic, at 20-1 morning-line odds, is another interesting long shot trained by Michael Trombetta. In his last race, he finished fourth in the 9-furlong Private Terms stakes and the drop back to 8½-furlongs in today’s race could be more to his liking.
 Prior to his last race, Where’s Dominic compiled a 2-1-1 record in four starts and a return to that form could make him competitive in the Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G3).
Honorable mention goes to General Election who I profiled in my 2013 Kentucky Derby Outlook. He has the breeding to be competitive in today’s race. But, so far on the Derby trail, he’s not lived up to my expectations.  

*****

The winner of the Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G3) will receive 20 points while second-place will yield eight points, the third-place finisher will receive four points, and the fourth-place finisher will receive two points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated April 20, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Orb, 150, Shug McGaughey III, $840,000
2 = Verrazano, 150, Todd Pletcher, $810,000
3 = Goldencents, 129, Doug O’Neill, $1,208,000
4 = Java’s War, 122, Ken McMcPeek, $651,772
5 = Overanalyze, 110, Todd Pletcher, $908,381
6 = Revolutionary, 110, Todd Pletcher, $720,000
7 = Lines of Battle, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,261,089
8 = Vyjack, 70, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000
9 = Will Take Charge, 60, D. Wayne Lukas, $512,971
10 = Itsmyluckyday, 50, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $593,600
11 = Govenor Charlie, 50, Bob Baffert, $400,000
12 = Black Onyx, 50, Kelly Breen, $317,130
13 = Palace Malice, 50, Todd Pletcher, $200,000
14 = Normandy Invasion, 44, Chad Brown, $258,000
15 = Frac Daddy, 44, Ken McPeek, $240,596
16 = Mylute, 42, Tom Amoss, $363,365
17 = Oxbow, 36, D. Wayne Lukas, $316,000
18 = Super Ninety Nine, 30, Bob Baffert, $308,000
19 = Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500
20 = Charming Kitten, 20, Todd Pletcher, $206,000


Friday, April 12, 2013

Blue Grass Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” comes to Keeneland Saturday where an overflow field of 15 horses has been drawn for the 89th running of the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1), with Divine Ambition listed as the also eligible entrant. Uncaptured, the tepid 7-2 morning-line favorite, will go the starting gate for trainer Mark Casse who also has Dynamic Sky (10-1) entered in the race.
Of the pair, I like Uncaptured the best. He showed his talent last month at Turfway Park, finishing second in his 3-year-old debut, after a four-month layoff, to Black Onyx in the Spiral Stakes (G3), boosting his record to 6-1-0 in eight career starts.
I liked Uncaptured in the Spiral. However, I didn’t like him for the win and, while I think that Uncaptured will be competitive in the Blue Grass, I don’t like him for the win in this spot either. Three other young colts I like better are Palace Malice (8-1), Java’s War (4-1) and Tesseron (50-1).
Palace Malice was running a huge race in the Louisiana Derby (G2) when he got stuck on the rail in the stretch and lost any chance of victory. Here’s the chart call:

PALACE MALICE saved ground on the first turn, made a strong middle move, moved closer while off the rail on the far turn, waited while blocked from the quarter-pole to the furlong marker, had a bunch of rivals pass him in the process, moved to the outside and lost any chance.

His 104 Brisnet E1 pace figure, and E2 figure of 114, were huge, and despite his disappointing seventh-place finish Palace Malice earned a 97 speed figure for that performance.
Palace Malice gets a jockey switch to Garrett Gomez and I’m looking for him to run a better race. His dismal finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) is not an indicator of his talent and he has the breeding to be competitive.
His sire, Curlin, was undefeated in three starts as a 3-year-old, including a win in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2), en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1).
Curlin went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) by a head and he lost the Belmont Stakes (G1) by a head. He won numerous Eclipse awards, compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts and earned over $10.5 million dollars.
Palace Malice’s grandsire, Smart Strike, has proven to be an outstanding sire of champions and classic champions. He sired the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Curlin and Lookin at Lucky and he’s the damsire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.
In addition, Smart Strike is the sire of numerous Canadian Sovereign Award winners: Soaring Free, Portcullis, Added Edge, Eye of the Sphynx, Gold Strike; and Smart Strike is the sire of the American Eclipse Award winner English Channel.
Royal Anthem, the damsire of Palace Malice, was an outstanding turf horse who did his best racing at 10-furlongs and further winning the Fairway Stakes, King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) and Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1) in England as well as the Canadian International Stakes (G1), then, Palace Malice should run better as the races get longer.
Java’s War, after a four-month layoff, looked impressive in his 3-year-old debut, finishing second to the early Kentucky Derby favorite Verrazano. Java’s War has room to improve in his second start of the season and he has the breeding to be competitive in the Blue Grass.
Java’s War is a descendant of the Cherokee Run sire line and in my July 3 blog of 2009 I noted the importance of keeping track of colts from that line when they stretch out to route racing.
Over the years, the Cherokee Run sire line has produced a lot of good middle- distance runners such as War Pass, the sire of Java’s War. Other good runners from that line include: Yonaguska, Kafwain, Sir Cherokee, During, Chelokee, Zanjero, Recapturetheglory, Musket Man and The Pamplemousse.
A recent bullet workout could have Java’s War ready to run a good race.
Despite his fourth-place finish, Tesseron looked impressive in his 3-year-old debut last February at Gulfstream Park where he finished 2¼-lengths shy of the victor, Black Onyx, who was my long shot pick in the Spiral Stakes. In the stretch run, Tesseron stalked the leaders who posted a racehorse time of 1:34.77 for the mile and a finish time of 1:40.99.
Tesseron has room to improve in his second start of the season and another move forward will make him competitive in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).
Honorable mention goes to Balance The Books (15-1) who bombed in the Spiral Stakes (G3), but has the breeding to be competitive. If he looks good in the post parade, Balance The Books may be worth a small wager.

*****

The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) will receive 100 points while second-place will yield 40 points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

Kentucky Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated April 6, 2013)

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1 = Orb, 150, Shug McGaughey III, $840,000
2 = Verrazano, 150, Todd Pletcher, $810,000
3 = Goldencents, 129, Doug O’Neill, $1,208,000
4 = Revolutionary, 110, Todd Pletcher, $720,000
5 = Lines of Battle, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,261,089
6 = Vyjack, 70, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000
7 = Will Take Charge, 60, D. Wayne Lukas, $512,971
8 = Itsmyluckyday, 50, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $593,600
9 = Govenor Charlie, 50, Bob Baffert, $400,000
10 = Black Onyx, 50, Kelly Breen, $317,130
11 = Normandy Invasion, 44, Chad Brown, $258,000
12 = Mylute, 42, Tom Amoss, $363,365
13 = Oxbow, 36, D. Wayne Lukas, $316,000
14 = Uncaptured, 30, Mark Casse, $394,674
15 = Super Ninety Nine, 30, Bob Baffert, $308,000
16 = Java’s War, 22, Ken McPeek, $201,772
17 = Merit Man, 20, Bob Hess Jr., $357,500
18 = Den’s Legacy, 20, Bob Baffert, $325,000
19 = Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500
20 = Departing, 20, Al Stall Jr., $130,000