Saturday, October 31, 2009

Iroquois Stakes Racing Roundup

Soaring Empire, owned by University of Louisville Basketball Coach Rick Pitino and Ol Memorial Stable, is a 2-year-old colt that has been on my watch list for some time. Sunday he will make his stakes debut in the $100,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3) in the opening day of the fall meet at Churchill Downs.

In just his second start, with 15-1 morning line odds, I have no idea how well Soaring Empire will perform in the Iroquois. But if his maiden debut at Monmouth Park on September 26 is an indication, Pitino and his partners may have a contender for the 2010 Triple Crown Trail.

Soaring Empire came from way off the pace, angled out four-wide midway on the turn, and rallied to win going away by 3 ¼ -lengths with a final time of 1:04.80 in the 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race at Monmouth Park.

I really like the pedigree of Soaring Empire, but you never know how well juveniles will do until they’ve raced a few times. Sometimes they live up to their breeding and sometimes they don’t. I’ve had my share of horses that I liked and for some reason they did not live up to their breeding.

It definitely is a step up in class for Soaring Empire who will face the likes of Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner Dublin. However, I like Soaring Empire for my longshot pick. He has the breeding to win the Iroquois but only time will tell if Soaring Empire will develop into a nice racehorse.

I also like Dublin who is the 4-1 morning line favorite in the field of 11 horses. But, with his low odds and my small bankroll, I will only use him with Soaring Empire in the exotics.

Although he’s never ran in a route race, Uh Oh Bango (5-1) looks like he could be tough in this spot. He comes into this race with a 10 ½ -length romp in the 6-furlong Prairie Meadows Freshman Stakes, September 18 at Prairie Meadows. Uh Oh Bango’s final time of 1:09.26 earned him a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure for that performance which is the highest speed figure of all the horses entered in today’s race. If he can carry that speed to a route he could be in the mix.

Another horse I like is the Todd Pletcher-trained Three Day Rush (8-1) who comes into this race with a win in the Monmouth Park-NATC Furturity.

My selections:

Soaring Empire
Dublin
Three Day Rush
Uh Oh Bango

Friday, October 30, 2009

Great Racehorses Of The Decade: Zarkava

In a new series of articles for the British Horseracing Authority, turf writer Andrew Scott profiles Great Racehorses of the Decade.

In week five, Scott profiles Zarkava.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Breeders' Cup By The Numbers

Daily Racing Form Publisher Steven Crist recently wrote an excellent post for his blog profiling the Thoroughbreds who have sired the most Breeders’ Cup winners since its inception in 1984.

That’s the kind of reporting that I really appreciate.

For several years now, I have been keeping similar statistics for my own records and I have found them to be valuable in keeping up with historical trends as well as potential handicapping angles.

In order to put the Breeders’ Cup statistics into perspective, an overview of American horseracing is necessary. I don’t, yet, have the exact numbers but a vast majority of thoroughbred champions in the last half of the 20th Century trace back to the sire line of Darley Arabian through his descendents Whalebone, Stockwell, Phalaris, Native Dancer and Nearco.

Modern-day horseracing as we know it would not exist if it was not for Phalaris and his three sons – Sickle, Pharos and Pharamond II. Born in 1913, Phalaris was a champion sprinter in 1917 and 1918 with a career-record 16-2-1 in 24 starts. However, Phalaris' greatest contribution to horse racing was as a sire and he was selected by Timeform as the sire of the 20th Century.

The greatest impact Phalaris and his sire line have had on horseracing has been by his great-great grandson Native Dancer and grandson Nearco.

Native Dancer, an outstanding champion, 21-1-0 in 22 starts, was sired by Polynesian out of the line of Sickle and that line produced Mr. Prospector which is one of the leading sire lines in the industry today.

Nearco, a champion racehorse, undefeated in 14 starts, was sired by Pharos and the line of Nearco has given us most of our modern-day thoroughbred champions. Nearco's greatest contribution comes from his two sons, Nasrullah and Royal Charger, and his two grandsons, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler.

There are five sire lines descended from Phalaris that have had a major impact on the Breeders' Cup races. Those sire lines are: Mr. Prospector who is a descendent of the Native Dancer line; Nasrullah, Royal Charger, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler who are descendents of the Nearco sire line.

Since 1984, a total of 194 Breeders Cup races have been run and 160 (82%) of them have been won by horses out of the sire line of Phalaris and his descendents. Of those 194 Breeders’ Cup races, 117 (60%) of them have been won by horses out of the sire line of Phalaris’ grandson Nearco and his descendents: 58 winners are out of the line of Nearco's grandson Northern Dancer; 40 winners are out of the line of his son Nasrullah and 18 of those are out of the line of Nasrullah’s son Bold Ruler; 15 winners are out of the line of Nearco's son Royal Charger and 10 of those winners are out of the sire line of Royal Charger’s grandson Hail To Reason; four winners are out of the line of Nearco’s son Nearctic.

The Mr. Prospector line has produced a total of 41 Breeders’ Cup winners. Of those 41 winners, 10 (24%) are from the line of his son Fappiano and eight (20 %) are from the line of his son Gone West.

This Breeders' Cup statistics chart shows the impact that the bloodline of Phalaris, and his descendents, has had on all of the Breeders' Cup divisional races since 1984. I have also included a second chart that shows the Breeders’ Cup winners produced by the top sire lines of the descendents of Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Royal Charger, Nasrullah and Bold Ruler.

In all of the divisional races, the Northern Dancer sire line has the most winners (refer to chart one) in four divisions: Juvenile Filles (7), Turf (10), Fillies & Mare Turf (8) and Mile (14). The Mr. Prospector sire line has the most winners in the Juvenile (7) and Sprint (8) divisions.

Classic Division

The sire line of Mr. Prospector has produced five winners: Raven’s Pass (2008), Curlin (2007), Volponi (2002), Black Tie Affair (1991) and Unbridled (1990). The sire line of Northern Dancer has also produced five winners: Ghostzapper (2004), Cat Thief (1999), Awesome Again (1998), Cigar (1995) and Ferdinand (1987).

Ladies’ Classic Division

The sire line of Northern Dancer has produced the most winners with a total of six: Ginger Punch (2007), Round Pond (2006), Adoration (2003), Escena (1998), Ajina (1997) and Dance Smartly (1991). The sire line of Mr. Prospector has produced five winners: Zenyatta (2008), Pleasant Home (2005), Azeri (2002), Unbridled Elaine (2001) and Spain (2000). The Bold Ruler line has also produced five winners: Beautiful Pleasure (1999), Bayakoa (1990 and 1989), Sacahuista (1987) and Lady’s Secret (1986).

Juvenile Division

The Mr. Prospector sire line leads the Juvenile Division with a total of seven winners: Midshipman (2008), Street Sense (2006), Anees (1999), Unbridled’s Song (1995), Timber Country (1994), Rhythm (1989) and Tasso (1985). The Bold Ruler line produced five winners: Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Vindication (2002), Boston Harbor (1996), Is It True (1988) and Capote (1986). The Northern Dancer line has produced three winners: Wilko (2004), Johannesburg (2001) and Chief’s Crown (1984). The Royal Charger line has also produced three winners: Action This Day (2003), Answer Lively (1998) and Brocco (1993).

Juvenile Fillies Division

The Northern Dancer sire line has the most winners with a total of seven: Sweet Catomine (2004), Storm Flag Flying (2002), Silverbulletday (1998), Countess Diana (1997), Storm Song (1996), Go For Wand (1989) and Open Mind (1988). The Nasrullah line produced four winners: Indian Blessing (2007), Dreaming Of Anna (2006), Eliza (1992) and Brave Raj (1986). The Mr. Prospector line produced three winners: Halfbridled (2003), Cash Run (1999) and Flanders (1994).

Turf Division

The Northern Dancer line leads the Turf Division with a total of 10 winners: Red Rocks (2006), High Chaparral (2003 and 2002), Chief Bearhart (1997), Pilsudski (1996), Northern Spur (1995), Fraise (1992), In The Wings (1990), Theatrical (1987) and Manila (1986). The Nasrullah line produced eight winners: Conduit (2008), Better Talk Now (2004), Fantastic Light (2001), Kalanisi (2000), Daylami (1999), Tikkanen (1994), Kotashaan (1993) and Lashkari (1984).

Filly & Mare Turf Division

The Filly & Mare Turf was inaugurated in 1999 and in the past 10 years, the Northern Dancer has produced eight winners: Forever Together (2008), Lahudood (2007), Ouija Board (2006 and 2004), Intercontinental (2005), Islington (2003), Starine (2002) and Banks Hill (2001). The Royal Charger line produced the two remaining winners: Perfect Sting (2000) and Soaring Softly (1999).

Sprint Division

The Mr. Prospector line leads the Sprint Division with a total of eight winners: Midnight Lute (2008 and 2007), Speightstown (2004), Cajun Beat (2003), Squirtle Squirt (2001), Artax (1999), Gulch (1988) and Eillo (1984). The Northern Dancer line produced five winners: Reraise (1998), Lit de Justice (1996), Desert Stormer (1995), Sheikh Albadou (1991) and Dancing Spee (1989).

Mile Division

The Northern Dancer line has dominated the Mile with 14 winners (56%): Goldikova (2008), Artie Schiller (2005), Val Royal (2001), War Chant (2000), Spinning World (1997), Barathea (1994), Lure (1993 and 1992), Opening Verse (1991), Royal Academy (1990), Miesque (1988 and 1987), Last Tycoon (1986) and Royal Heroine (1984). The Mr. Prospector line has produced five winners: Kip Deville (2007), Miesque’s Approval (2006), Six Perfections (2003) and Da Hoss (1998 and 1996).

In 2007, the Breeders’ Cup committee added the Filly & Mare Sprint, Juvenile Turf and Dirt Mile to the roster of Breeders’ Cup races. In 2008, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf and Turf Sprint were also added to the roster. Every one of those races, except for the 2007 and 2008 Dirt Mile, has been won by horses descended from the Mr. Prospector sire line.

Here are the statistics (refer to chart two) of the Breeders’ Cup winners produced by the top sire lines of the descendents of Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, Royal Charger, Nasrullah and Bold Ruler.

Mr. Prospector

The sire line of Mr. Prospector’s son Fappiano produced 10 winners: Classic – Volponi (2002) and Unbridled (1990); Ladies’ Classic – Unbridled (2001); Juvenile – Midshipman (2008), Anees (1999), Unbridled’s Song (1995) and Tasso (1985); Juvenile Fillies – Halfbridled (2003); Sprint – Midnight Lute (2008 and 2007). Fappiano sired two winners (Unbridled and Tasso) and his son Unbridled sired three winners (see Crist’s blog).

The sire line of Mr. Prospector’s son Gone West produced 8 winners: Classic – Raven’s Pass (2008); Turf – Johar (2003); Sprint – Speightstown (2004), Cajun Beat (2003); Mile – Da Hoss (1998 and 1996); Filly & Mare Sprint – Maryfield (2007); Juvenile Turf – Nownownow (2007). Gone West sired four winners (see Crist’s blog).

Northern Dancer

Of all the descendents of Northern Dancer, the sire line of his son Danzig has produced the most Breeders’ Cup winners with a total of 16: Ladies’ Classic – Adoration (2004), Dance Smartly (1991); Juvenile – Chief’s Crown (1984); Juvenile Fillies – Countess Diana (1997); Turf – Chief Bearhart (1997), Pilsudski (1996); Filly & Mare Turf – Forever Together (2008), Ouija Board (2006 and 2004), Intercontinental (2005), Banks Hill (2001); Sprint – Sheikh Albadou (1991); Mile – Goldikova (2008), War Chant (2000), Lure (1993 and 1992). Danzig sired five winners (see Crist’s blog).

The Sadler’s Wells sire line produced 9 winners: Turf – Red Rocks (2006), High Chaparral (2003 and 2002), Northern Spur (1995), In The Wings (1990); Fillies & Mare Turf – Lahudood (2007), Islington (2003); Mile – Artie Schiller (2005), Barathea (1994). Sadler’s Wells sired six winners (see Crist’s blog).

The Deputy Minister sire line produced 8 winners: Classic – Ghostzapper (2004), Awesome Again (1998), Ladies’ Classic – Ginger Punch (2007), Round Pond (2006); Juvenile – Wilko (2004); Juvenile Fillies – Silverbulletday (1998), Go For Wand (1989), Open Mind (1988). Three winners were sired by Deputy Minister and four were sired by his son Awesome Again (see Crist’s blog).

The Nijinsky sire line produced 7 winners: Classic – Ferdinand (1987), Ladies’ Classic – Escena (1998), Ajina (1997); Turf – Fraise (1992); Sprint – Dancing Spree (1989); Mile – Val Royal (2001), Royal Academy (1990). Nijinsky sired three winners and his grandson Strawberry Road sired three winners (see Crist’s blog).

Royal Charger

The sire line of his grandson Hail To Reason produced 10 winners: Classic – St. Liam (2005), Sunday Silence (1989); Ladies’ Classic – Ashado (2004), Hollywood Wildcat (1993); Juvenile – Action This Day (2003), Answer Lively (1998), Brocco (1993); Turf – Prized (1989); Filly & Mare Turf – Perfect Sting (2000), Soaring Softly (1989). Royal Charger’s second-great grandson Kris S. sired five winners (see Crist’s blog).

Nasrullah

The sire line of his grandson Blushing Groom produced 8 winners: Classic – Invasor (2006); Juvenile – War Pass (2007); Juvenile Fillies – Dreaming of Anna (2006), Eliza (1992); Turf – Fantastic Light (2001); Sprint – Orientate (2002), Cherokee Run (1994); Mile – Silic (1999). Blushing Groom’s son Rahy sired two winners (Dreaming Of Anna and Fantastic Light). Blushing Groom’s Son Mt. Livermore sired two winners (Eliza and Orientate).

Bold Ruler

The sire line of his great-grandson Seattle Slew produced 9 winners: Classic – A. P. Indy (1992); Juvenile – Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Vindication (2002), Boston Harbor (1996), Capote (1986); Juvenile Fillies – Stardom Bound (2008), Tempera (2001); Sprint – Silver Train (2005), Thirty Slews (1992). Seattle Slew sired three winners (see Crist’s blog).

Some statistics that really stand out for me:

The sire line of Phalaris and, most significantly, his grandson Nearco have produced the most Breeders’ Cup winners (117).

Despite the fact that the sire line of Mr. Prospector has dominated the American Classics (that’s the subject of another post), Nearco’s grandson Northern Dancer has been dominant with 58 winners – especially in the Mile (14) and Turf (10) divisions.

While compiling these statistics, the biggest surprise was that of all the descendents of Northern Dancer, the Danzig sire line has been the most productive with a total of 16 winners.

The Fappiano line has been the most productive Mr. Prospector sire line with 10 winners. The sire line of Nearco’s great-grandson Hail To Reason has also produced 10 winners.

This statistic was another surprise: If you include 18 winners from the Bold Ruler line, the sire line of Nasrullah has produced 40 Breeders’ Cup winners compared to Mr. Prospector’s 41.

Nine of the 18 Bold Ruler sire line winners are descended from the sire line of Bold Ruler’s great-grandson Seattle Slew.

The Filly & Mare Turf Division was inaugurated in 1999 and in the past 10 years, five of those winners have been produced by the sire line of Danzig.

Half of the Deputy Minister sire line winners were sired by his son Awesome Again.

Sixty-Seven percent of the Sadler’s Wells sire line winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells.

As you can see, despite having raced only a few years, the Breeders’ Cup has a rich history of superb horseracing and, next to the American Classic races, it’s my favorite two days of racing.

Good luck with your selections!

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Sea The Stars: Move Over

British Isles flat racing fans, bemoaning the loss of racing sensation Sea The Stars, recently retired to stud, may have a new horseracing star in the making with St. Nicholas Abbey who devasted a very good group of 2-year-old juveniles in the 1-mile Group One Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster Saturday.

Held up in the rear early on, jockey Johnny Murtagh took St. Nicholas Abbey to the lead with one furlong left and cruised to an easy 3 ¾ -length victory over runnerup Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir who finished third another 2 ½ -lengths back.

“This is a very special horse,” said St. Nicholas Abbey’s trainer Aidan O’Brien in a Racing Post news story. “He’s one of those unique horses who is bred to stay but who has speed. When you look at the turn of toe he showed today – it was effortless.”

St. Nicholas Abbey is now undefeated in three starts. In his last outing he won the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes (Group 2) – which was also won by Sea The Stars last year. But so far, with a Group 2 and Group 1 win to his credit, St. Nicholas Abbey is further along than Sea The Stars who was 2-0-0 in three starts at this time last year.

St. Nicholas Abbey is definitely one to keep an eye on in next year’s flat racing season.

“We will be looking at the Guineas and all the Classics next year,” said O’Brien.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

IEAH Stables Buys Radiohead, Will Send Him To Breeders' Cup Juvenile

The Racing Post reports that IEAH Stables has purchased controlling interest in Radiohead, an impressive winner of the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot this summer, and will send him to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita next month.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Great Racehorses Of The Decade: Week Four

In a new series of articles for the British Horseracing Authority, turf writer Andrew Scott is profiling Great Racehorses of the Decade.

In week four, Scott profiles Dylan Thomas.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Full Brother To Queen's Plate Winner Wins Debut

A 2-year-old thoroughbred I have on my watch list, Hotep, a full brother to this year’s Canadian Queen’s Plate winner Eye of The Leopard, won his maiden debut today at Woodbine for trainer Mark Frostad.

Hotep covered the 1 mile 70 yard maiden special weight race in 1:42.54 and paid $16.70 for the win, $9.70 to place and $4.10 for the show.

Frostad also trains Eye Of The Leopard who earlier this year gave Frostad his third Queen's Plate win.

It's a long way off to the 2010 Queen's Plate, but if Hotep remains healthy and keeps winning he would be a good one to keep an eye on.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Great Racehorses Of The Decade: Week Three

In a new series of articles for the British Horseracing Authority, turf writer Andrew Scott is profiling Great Racehorses of the Decade.

In week three, Scott profiles Galileo.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

I Wish I Could Do This Every Day

In my perfect world, every day would find me with a longshot on my winning tickets. Unfortunately we do not live in a perfect world.

However, Saturday and Sunday was as near perfect as it can get.

Saturday, I forgot to mention Noble's Promise in my blog about the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland but in the comment section of my blog I made a post answering a question from a reader and said that Noble's Promise was a good longshot pick. Noble’s Promise crossed the finish line first and paid $27.80 for the win:

"Barry…A long shot I forgot to mention in the blog is improving Noble's Promise - trained by Kenny McPeak. He has some good speed and if he can transfer that to a route he may be in the mix. His pedigree says he should be able to go the distance but I would not expect him to go much farther."

Sunday, Codoy was my long shot pick in the Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. Codoy came in second and paid $28.00 for the place:

"An interesting long shot is the Mark Hubley-trained Codoy (15-1) who broke his maiden last out winning by a neck in a 1-mile maiden race on the all-weather track at Turfway Park. Codoy, in his three previous attempts on the turf, has two seconds and a third place finish. He’s seems to be improving with every race and he’s been working out good at Keeneland."

Now if only I could win the lottery. Oh well, we have to have dreams, don’t we.

Sea The Stars is Great But Maybe Not That Great

Racing Post historian and statistician John Randall gives his perspective on the historical ranking of Sea The Stars compared to other Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Great Racehorses Of The Decade

In a new series of articles for the British Horse Racing Authority, turf writer Andrew Scott is profiling Great Racehorses of the Decade.

While Ribot was the Classic Champion Thoroughbred associated with the 1950’s and Sea Bird was the wonderhorse of the 1960’s, the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Nijinsky, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard dominated the 1970’s.

Scott profiles Sinndar in week one and Montjeu in week two.

Bourbon, Grey Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Todd Pletcher will be looking for his third win in the $125,000 Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland today as he sends out morning line favorite Interactif (5-2) and Exhi (5-1). Bittel Road won the Bourbon for Pletcher last year and Twilight Meteor won it for him in 2006.

Interactif had been scheduled to run in the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont last weekend but was scratched when the race was taken off the turf because of heavy rain. Interactif comes into the Bourbon with a 4 ¼-length win in the With Anticipation Stakes (G3) at Saratoga.

Exhi comes into the Bourbon with a 4-length win in a 1 1/16 mile maiden race at Belmont.

Asphalt, along with Exhi, is also listed at 5-1 morning line odds. Trained by Eddie Kenneally, Asphalt has never run a route race and comes into the Bourbon with a 7-furlong win by a neck on the turf at Belmont.

Family Foundation (6-1) comes into the Bourbon with two impressive wins on the turf at Arlington Park.

Billions Boy (8-1) also comes into the Bourbon after being scratched out of the Pilgrim. After two previous attempts, Billions Boy finally broke his maiden last out going gate-to-wire in a 1 1/16 mile turf race on firm ground September 7 at Saratoga. In that race, Billions Boy defeated runnerup Eskendery who later flattered Billions Boy’s victory by winning the Pilgrim stakes last weekend.

An interesting long shot is the Mark Hubley-trained Codoy (15-1) who broke his maiden last out winning by a neck in a 1-mile maiden race on the all-weather track at Turfway Park. Codoy, in his three previous attempts on the turf, has two seconds and a third place finish. He’s seems to be improving with every race and he’s been working out good at Keeneland.

Interactif, Exhi and Billions Boy look tough in the Bourbon. But at 15-1 morning line, Codoy may be worth a win, place bet.

My selections:

Codoy
Billions Boy
Interactif
Exhi

************************

Trainer Sid Attard’s Ghost Fleet heads a field of seven horses entered in today’s $250,000 Grey Stakes (G3) for 2-year-old thoroughbreds at Woodbine Racetrack. During its 103-year history the Grey Stakes has produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: Kennedy Road, Sunny’s Halo, Dancer’s Image and this year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird.

Ghost Fleet, the 5-2 morning line favorite, comes into the race with a win in the Vandal and Swynford Stakes and Attard hopes that his charge will give him his first Grey Stakes win.
Owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s William’s Kitten is the 7-2 morning line second choice and he comes into the race with an easy 4 ¾ -length win in the Sunday Silence Stakes at Louisiana Downs.

Trainer Reade Baker’s Bear Tough Guy is the 4-1 third choice and he comes into the Grey Stakes with a 1-mile maiden win on firm turf at Woodbine.

Trainer Gregory de Gannes sends Ring My Surprise (6-1) and Mobthewarrior (8-1) to the starting gate.

Rein King (6-1) is shipping in from New York for the Grey Stakes. Trained by John Terranova, Rein King comes into the race with a half-length win in a 1-mile maiden race at Belmont.

Trainer Daniel J. Vella switches Korvette Kid (8-1) from the turf to the polytrack to see if he can get a graded stakes win. Korvette Kid comes into the race with a sixth-place finish in the Summer Stakes.

My selections:

William’s Kitten
Ghost Fleet
Rein King
Bear Tough Guy

Friday, October 9, 2009

Champagne Stakes Racing Roundup

Inaugurated in 1867, the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park is one of the oldest, and a favorite of mine, prep race for 2-year-old thoroughbreds whose connections have hopes for Triple Crown glory.

Speaking of glory, the Champagne honor roll of previous winners is a who’s who of Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. The Triple Crown winners Seattle Slew and Count Fleet as well as Birdstone, Sea Hero, Easy Goer, Spectacular Bid, Foolish Pleasure, Riva Ridge, Grey Lag, Colin and Ben Brush all won previous editions of the Champagne Stakes and would later become Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.

This year, trainer D. Wayne Lukas, whose last Champagne winner was Grand Slam in 1997 and Classic Champion Thoroughbred was 2000 Belmont Stakes winner Commendable, is hoping that his charge, Dublin, will eventually put him back in the Classic Champion winners circle.

Dublin (Afleet Alex-Classic Mirage by Storm Bird) is the 8-5 morning line favorite and heads a short field of six horses entered in Saturday’s Champagne Stakes which is an automatic qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Division. Dublin comes into the race with a 4-length triumph last out over favored Backtalk in the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at Saratoga.

Two other juveniles that I like in the Champagne are Discreetly Mine (Mineshaft-Pretty Discreet by Private Account) and Super Saver (Wavering Monarch-Supercharger by A.P. Indy). Both have nice pedigrees but only time will tell if they can live up to their breeding.

In his last outing, Discreetly Mine (7-2) finished second, beaten by 4 ¾ -lengths, to D’Funnybone in the Belmont Futurity (G2). Two races back, Discreetly Mine defeated Super Saver (4-1) by 6 ¼-lengths in a 6 ½-furlong maiden race at Saratoga.

Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the only horse to travel a route of ground. Last out, he broke his maiden in a 7-length romp, 1-mile maiden race on a sloppy track at Belmont.
Another horse to keep an eye on is Aspire (3-1). He has been working out good and he finished a respectable second last out, beaten 2-lengths by Dublin in the Hopeful.

Despite the short field, this is a tough race and I especially like Dublin and Discreetly Mine. However, I believe there are several in the race who could step into the winners circle.

My picks:

Discreetly Mine
Dublin
Super Saver
Aspire

Dixiana Breeders' Futurity Racing Roundup

Thousands of horseracing fans throughout the region will make the fall pilgrimage this weekend to Keeneland racetrack in Lexington. Located in the heart of Kentucky Bluegrass country, Keeneland is a beautiful racetrack and the fall meet is always a festive affair. Racing fans, especially the ladies, like to dressup for the occasion.

Track officials have done a good job in filling Saturday’s 10-race card with full fields but the highlight for me will be the $500,000 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (G1) for 2-year-old thoroughbreds. The 1 1/16-mile Dixiana is a Breeder’s Cup automatic qualifier for the Juvenile Division and for many of the horses entered in the race this will be their first attempt at a route race and the all-weather racing surface.

The Tom Amoss-trained Backtalk, winner of the Bashford Manor (G3) and Sanford Stakes (G2), is the 4-1 morning favorite and heads a full field of 14 horses. In his last outing, the previously undefeted Backtalk finished fourth to D. Wayne Lukas’ Dublin in the 7-furlong Hopeful Stakes (G1). Backtalk starts from post two but in the Hopeful, he broke from post 12 and was further back in the earlier going than he had been in previous races.

Wayne Catalano’s Dixie Band ships in from Arlington Park and has been made the 5-1 second-choice co-favorite with Todd Pletcher’s Aikenite. Undefeated in three starts, Dixie Band comes into the Hopeful with a win in the Spectacular Bid Stakes and the Arlington-Washington Furturity (G3). After getting off to a slow start in his last outing, Aikenite finished a respectable third in the Hopeful beaten 3 ½ lengths by Dublin.

In his last outing, The Gregory Sacco-trained Piscitelli (15-1) finished third to Dixie Band in the Arlington-Washington Futurity.

Alexis Barba ships in from Del Mar Make Music For Me (6-1) who twice finished second to Lookin At Lucky in the Best Pal (G2) and Del Mar Futurity Stakes (G2).

Two horses who have already raced 1 1/16 miles is the Michael Maker-trained Stately Victor (8-1) and Roman Invasion (12-1) who is trained by Kelly Breen. Stately Victor has been working exceptionally well and he comes into the race with an easy 4 ½-length maiden win on the turf last out. Roman Invasion comes into the race with a 10 ¾-length maiden win last out on a wet-fast track Delaware. However, his time was a slow 1:46.44.

My picks:

Stately Victor
Backtalk
Dixie Band
Make Music For Me

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Norfolk, Pilgrim Stakes Racing Roundup

This is the time of year that I really appreciate the most when it comes following 2-year-old thoroughbreds. A lot of the sprint races have been ran and the 2-year-olds begin to stretch out to route races to prepare themselves for their 3-year-old campaign.

On tap, a couple of Breeders’ Cup “Win and You Are In” races highlight today’s stakes racing action for 2-year-old thoroughbreds.

Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert will send 8-5 morning line favorite Lookin At Lucky in the $300,000 Norfolk (G1) at Santa Anita and Todd Pletcher sends out 5-2 favorite Interactif in the $150,000 Pilgrim Stakes (G3) on the turf at Belmont. Both races are run at 1 1/16 miles and the winner will stamp his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Turf races in November.

Undefeated Lookin At Lucky comes into the Norfolk with a pair of stakes wins in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Baffert holds the record for the most Norfolk wins with four to his credit and he should have Lookin At Lucky ready for a good effort. His sire, Smart Strike, is the sire of Curlin and his damsire, Belong To Me, is the sire of the multiple Grades Stakes Champion filly Forever Together so the distance should not be a problem.

A couple of horses I like in here to perhaps give Lookin At Lucky some competition is the John Sadler-trained Dave In Dixie (9-2) and Carla Gaines’ John Scott (6-1).

Dave In Dixie comes into the Norfolk with an impressive maiden debut win August 29 at Del Mar and, by the way, the Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book has Dave In Dixie currently tied with multiple graded stakes winner D’ Funnybone at 50-1 odds for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

His sire, Dixie Union won the 1999 Norfolk and he also sired Dixie Chatter who won the Norfolk in 2007. His damsire, Wavering Monarch, is the grandsire of 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. Interesting to note, Dave In Dixie’s grandsire, Dixieland Band, was the sire of Monarchos’ dam Regal Band.

Undefeated in two starts, John Scott comes into the Norfolk with a win in the I’m Smokin Stakes and retains regular rider Victor Espinoza who won the Norfolk in 2002 aboard Kafwain and Flame Thrower in 2000. John Scott’s sire, Bertrando, won the Norfolk in 1991 and his damsire, Deputy Minister, adds stamina to the pedigree.

At 20-1 morning line odds, Seattle Ruler is an intriguing long shot. His trainer, Mike Harrington, won the Norfolk in 1998 with Buck Trout. His sire, Roman Ruler, won the the 2004 Norfolk and his damsire, A.P. Indy, is the grandsire of 2001 Norfolk winner Essence Of Dubai. After five previous attempts, Seattle Ruler finally broke his maiden in a three-length victory in the Barretts Juvenile Stakes September 20.

If I play this race, I might put a small win, place bet on Seattle Ruler and use him with Dave In Dixie and John Scott in the exacta and trifecta. Or, I may use those three with Lookin At Lucky in a superfecta box.

At 15-1 morning line odds, Shrimp Dancer looks like he could be a very live long shot in the Pilgrim Stakes. Shrimp Dancer is trained by David Donk who has won the Pilgrim a record three times and he retains regular rider John Velazquez who has the most Pilgrim wins with five to his credit. His sire is the 2004 Eclipse Turf Male Kitten’s Joy and his damsire is the multiple grade one champion Formal Gold.

Three other horses that I like in this race are Billions Boy (9-2), Eskendereya (8-1) and Mr. Vegas (12-1).

After two previous attempts, Billions Boy finally broke his maiden last out going gate-to-wire in a 1 1/16 mile turf race on firm ground September 7 at Saratoga. Making his maiden debut in that race, Eskendereya finished second to Bullions Boy tracking the leader behind traffic on the rail in fourth but he finally got clear and finished a fast closing second.

Mr. Vegas has never ran a route race but with Freud who is a full brother to Giant’s Causeway as his sire and Epsom Derby winner The Minstrel as his damsire he should not have a problem stretching out to a route.

Mr. Vegas was steadied and checked multiple times in his maiden debut last out but still managed to take first place honors with Edgar Prado on board. Prado also rode Eskendereya in his maiden debut but he will maintain the mount on Mr. Vegas for the Pilgrim.

Here’s the chart call for Mr. Vegas debut win:

“MR. VEGAS checked after breaking slowly, raced well back, was blocked in traffic on the turn, steadied while gaining at the three-sixteenths pole, checked in midstretch, split horses a sixteenth out and finished with a flourish to win going away.”

At 12-1 morning line odds, Mr. Vegas may be worth a small win, place bet. If I play this race, I’ll probably put a small win, place, bet on Mr. Vegas and Seattle Ruler and use them with Eskendereya and Billions Boy in the exotics.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Horse Racing World Looks To Sea The Stars

All eyes of the horse racing world will look to Longchamp Racecourse Sunday as the brilliant Sea The Stars, winner of five Group One races this season, attempts to add his name to the honor roll of great Classic Champion Thoroughbreds that have won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Undefeated in 11 starts, the great English Triple Crown Champion Nijinsky also amassed five Group One races prior to the running of the 1970 Arc and, yet, even he came up short barely losing to a fresh Sassafras. Afterwards, trainer Vincent O’Brien speculated that the Arc had been too quick a turn around off Nijinsky’s St. Leger triumph.

Trainer John Oxx won the coveted Arc in 2000 with Sinndar for the HH Aga Khan IV and he is enthusiastic about the chance of his charge, Sea The Stars, to cross the finish line triumphant.

“He seems to be in very good form and is in no way down in himself or showing any effects of his campaign,” said Oxx in a Racing Post news story. “He is giving us the normal good signals that he has been giving all season.”

So, only time will tell if the campaign of Sea The Stars eventually proves to be too much for the brilliant Cape Cross colt.

Win or lose, Sea The Stars has already proven that he is one for the ages.After his Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) victory Sea the Stars was awarded a 140 Timeform rating putting him in the same league of the Group One Champion Dubai Millenium and the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Dancing Brave, Shergar and Vaguely Noble.

Riding legend Lester Piggott, who rode Nijinsky in the 1970 Arc and has three Arc victories to his credit, thinks that Sea The Stars is deserving of the accolades.

“You have to compare Sea The Stars with the best we have seen, because the way he has run this year has been fantastic,” said Piggott in a Racing Post article. “He is a stand-out this year. He is such an easy-going horse, he has a wonderful temperament, and that is what has helped him along the way.”

A victory in the Arc would insure Sea The Stars a spot in the hallowed halls of turf racing. A lot of history has already preceeded him.

French Hall of Fame Thoroughbred Sea Bird II is considered by many to be the greatest Arc Champion. He cruised to an easy victory in the 1965 Arc defeating the undefeated French Derby winner Reliance by six lengths. Also in that field were the Preakness winner Tom Rofle, Irish Derby winner Meadow Court and Russian Derby winner Anilin. During his career, Sea Bird II was awarded a 145 Timeform rating which still stands today as the highest rating ever earned by a thoroughbred in flat racing.

My personal favorite, though, is the undefeated dual Arc winner Ribot who, having previously won the Arc in 1955, capped off a brilliant 16-race career with a six-length triumph in the 1956 Arc.

Ribot was bred and owned by the great Italian breeder and trainer Federico Tesio – one of my all-time favorite breeders. Known as the “Wizard of Dormello,” Tesio bred and trained an incredible 21 Derby Italiano winners as well as the outstanding Donatello and Nearco. Without a doubt, Ribot was Tesio’s greatest racehorse. But, Tesio died of old age in 1954 and he did not live to see Ribot achieve fame and glory.

Ribot is a descendent of the St. Simon sire line which produced 17 Arc winners. St. Simon was one of Tesio’s favorite lines that he liked to breed to and, in fact, Ribot has seven strains of St. Simon in his pedigree.

Not only was Ribot an outstanding champion thoroughbred, but he also was an exceptional stallion and he sired the Arc winners Molvedo (1961) and Prince Royal (1964). His grandson Hoist The Flag sired the dual Arc winner Alleged who won the Arc in 1977 and 1978. Descendents of Ribot still continue to influence the breed to this day.

Bruleur was a leading sire in France for three seasons and another influential stallion in the history of the Arc. Bruleur is a descendent of the Byerley Turk sire line and he holds the record of having sired the most Arc winners: Ksar who won the Arc in 1921 and 1922, Priori (1925) and Samos (1935).

Ksar also became an influential stallion in the history of the Arc and instrumental in the success of the great breeder Marcel Boussac who won the Arc a record six times. In 1928 a mating by Ksar with Boussac’s broodmare Durban produced Tourbillon who later would become a leading sire in France that sired several Classic Champion Thoroughbreds for Boussac.

Tourbillon sired the 1942 Arc winner Djebel and Caracalla who won the Arc in 1946. Djebel sired the 1949 Arc winner Coronation.

The bloodstock operation of the Aga Khan also had an impact on the Arc. He won the won the Arc in 1948 with Migoli and Nuccio won it in 1952. Both horses were descendents of the St. Simon sire line.

The Aga Khan’s grandson, HH Aga Khan IV, has also had a lot of Arc success with four victories to his credit. His most recent win came Last year when his outstanding filly Zarkava crossed the finish line triumphant.

Of the previous Arc winners, most of them are descendents of the Darley Arabian sire line of Whalebone and his descendents Stockwell, Phalaris and Nearco. The sire line of Stockwell has produced 45 (52%) Arc winners. Of those 45 Arc winners, 35 (78%) of them are from the line of Phalaris and 28 are from the line of Nearco.

The sire line of Nearco’s son Nasrullah has produced 12 Arc winners and the line of his son Royal Charger produced two Arc winners. The sire line of Nearco’s grandson, Northern Dancer, has produced 14 Arc winners and in the past 15 years, 11 of those Arc winners are descendents of the Northern Dancer line.

Sea The Stars is a descendent of the Danzig line of Northern Dancer and the Danzig line has produced three Arc winners: Dylan Thomas (2007), Rail Link (2006) and Sinndar (2000). His dam, Urban Sea, won the 1993 Arc.

Sea The Stars comes from a family of Arc winners. But, it remains to be seen if Sea The Stars can carry on the family tradition.

Only time will tell.