Friday, November 28, 2014

Remsen Stakes Racing Roundup




©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
In what appears to be a wide-open horserace with the potential for a long shot upset, a field of 14 two-year-old Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 100th running this Saturday of the $400,000 Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack.
          The uncoupled entry of Frosted, the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and Classy Class, the 7-2 morning line second choice, will go to the starting gate for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
          "For Classy Class, it's a lot to ask to go from 6½ furlongs to one and one eighth miles, but most of the horses in there have only won once," noted McLaughlin's assistant, Art Magnusson in an Aqueduct Racetrack news story. "He's a very nice colt, and if we're going to run, he couldn't be training any better. Frosted will be making his fourth start, and we're excited about him running."
          Of that pair, I like Frosted the best. He broke his maiden by 5¼-lengths in his last race and he comes into the Remsen with a 1-2-0 record in three starts. The final time of 1:36.19 is what I like to see in a young colt that could be competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Frosted has been working out good at Belmont Park and two back-to-back bullet work outs could have him ready to run a good race.
A long shot I like in this race is Moonlight Bandit (8-1), but he is also cross entered in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs.
Moonlight Bandit is a sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy-Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and that herd has produced numerous Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Moonlight Bandit, is the sire of Orb, winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In addition, the tail-female line of Moonlight Bandit is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Fusaichi Pegasus, Sadler’s Wells and Blushing Groom.
While it remains to be seen if Moonlight Bandit has any classic potential, he has the breeding to be competitive on the Derby trail and his win last time out was a step in the right direction.
Another move forward off of his maiden win could make Moonlight Bandit a factor, and potential up-setter, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at a nice price.
Two other long shots I like in this race are Eh Cumpari (15-1) and Keen Ice (20-1).
Eh Cumpari comes into the Remsen with only a maiden win to his credit. But he won in impressive fashion, coming from eighth place at the top of the stretch to win by 3¼-lengths. The final time for the mile of 1:36.68 is what I like to see and his breeding suggests that Eh Cumpari will like the stretch out to 9-furlongs.
Elusive Quality, the sire of Eh Cumpari, sired the 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner, Smarty Jones, and, Eh Cumpari’s tail-female line is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Sadler’s Wells and Caro, both noted sources of stamina.
Keen Ice comes into this race off of a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on October 4. He’ll need to step his game, but he also should like the stretch out to 9-furlongs and he has the breeding to be a factor in the Remsen Stakes.
Curlin, the sire of Keen Ice, is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a nick with Deputy Minister who’s an influential descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. Keen Ice, out of the Awesome Again mare, Medomak, is also bred on that same nick.
Curlin was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred who, for many years, was the all-time leading money earner but is now ranked second with $10,501,800 in earnings. Curlin won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he was third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Awesome Again, the damsire of Keen Ice, was a Canadian classic winner of the 1997 Queen’s Plate Stakes.

*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Remsen Stakes (G2) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2014/2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
2. Texas Red, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $1,136,000
3. Ocho Ocho Ocho, 10, Jim Cassidy, $660,000
4. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
5. Daredevil, 10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
6. International Star, 10, Mike Maker, $120,028
7. Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen, $94,151
8. Mr. Z, 8, D. Wayne Lukas, $413,326
9. Upstart, 6, Rick Violette Jr., $300,000
10. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
11. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $221,827
12. Calculator, 4, Peter Miller, $120,000
13. Far Right, 2, Ron Moquett, $115,906
14. The Truth Or Else, 2, Kenny McPeek, $75,000
15. Hashtag Bourbon, 2, Kellyn Gorder, $74,117
16. Hollywood Critic, 2, Barbara Minshall, $35,528
17. The Great War, 1, Aidan O’Brien, $170,702
18. Lord Nelson, 1, Bob Baffert, $78,000
19. El Kabeir, 1, John Terranova II, $75,000
20. Danny Boy, 1, Dale Romans, $55,544
21. Saratoga Heater, 1, Al Stall, $50,000
22. Tough Customer, 1, Wayne Catalano, $25,000
23. Flashaway, 1, Mark Casse, $6,669

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Racing Roundup



©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Churchill Downs Saturday where California-shipper, Lord Nelson, heads a field of 12 young Thoroughbreds as the 5-2, morning-line favorite in the 88th running of the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
Lord Nelson comes into this race for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert with a 2-0-0 record in three starts, including a 6¾-length win, last time out, in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita Park on October 13.
Early on, Lord Nelson showed promise winning his maiden debut by a half a length on July 19 at Del Mar racetrack and, on September 27, he finished fourth in the Frontrunner Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, 6½-lengths behind stable mate, American Pharoah. The third-place finisher in that race, Texas Red, would go on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) for trainer Keith Desormeaux, who also owns a percentage of Texas Red, along with the Brehm Family and partners Dr. Gene Voss, Wayne Detmar and Lee Michaels.
With Pulpit as his sire and Seeking the Gold as his damsire, Lord Nelson has the breeding to be competitive and I look for him to run a good race. But two other young colts I’m looking forward to see run are Sky Hero (6-1) and Moonlight Bandit (30-1).
Sky Hero comes into this race for trainer Mark Casse with a 2-0-0 record in three starts. While he’s stepping up in class and has yet to win a stakes race, Sky Hero has already run 8½-furlongs and he has the breeding to be competitive in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
By Sky Mesa, out of the Danzig mare, Vision of Beauty, Sky Hero hails from the same tail-female family (Family 9-f) that produced War Pass who was a competitive two-year-old colt on the 2007 Kentucky Derby Trail.
With only two starts, Moonlight Bandit is stepping up in class and comes into this race off a 4¼-length maiden win at Churchill Downs on October 26.
Moonlight Bandit is a sire-line descendant of the A.P. Indy-Bold Ruler Ancestral Herd and that herd has produced numerous Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Moonlight Bandit, is the sire of Orb, winner of the 2013 Kentucky Derby. In addition, the tail-female line of Moonlight Bandit is reinforced by the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Fusaichi Pegasus, Sadler’s Wells and Blushing Groom.
While it remains to be seen if Moonlight Bandit has any classic potential, he has the breeding to be competitive on the Derby trail and his win last time out was a step in the right direction.
Another move forward off of his maiden win could make Moonlight Bandit a factor, and potential up-setter, in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at a nice price.
Other young runners that could round out the exotics include: Eagle (12-1), Flashway (15-1), Lucky Player (6-1), International Star (8-1) and Imperia (8-1).


*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2014/2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
2. Texas Red, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $1,136,000
3. Ocho Ocho Ocho, 10, Jim Cassidy, $660,000
4. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
5. Daredevil, 10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
6. International Star, 10, Mike Maker, $120,028
7. Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen, $94,151
8. Mr. Z, 8, D. Wayne Lukas, $413,326
9. Upstart, 6, Rick Violette Jr., $300,000
10. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
11. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $221,827
12. Calculator, 4, Peter Miller, $120,000
13. Far Right, 2, Ron Moquett, $115,906
14. The Truth Or Else, 2, Kenny McPeek, $75,000
15. Hashtag Bourbon, 2, Kellyn Gorder, $74,117
16. Hollywood Critic, 2, Barbara Minshall, $35,528
17. The Great War, 1, Aidan O’Brien, $170,702
18. Lord Nelson, 1, Bob Baffert, $78,000
19. El Kabeir, 1, John Terranova II, $75,000
20. Danny Boy, 1, Dale Romans, $55,544
21. Saratoga Heater, 1, Al Stall, $50,000
22. Tough Customer, 1, Wayne Catalano, $25,000
23. Flashaway, 1, Mark Casse, $6,669

Friday, November 21, 2014

Delta Downs Jackpot Racing Roundup



©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to Louisiana Saturday where an overflow field of 12 two-year-old Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 12th running of the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) at Delta Downs racetrack. Only 10 of those young horses, headed by Mr. Z as the lukewarm 5-2 morning-line favorite, are eligible to run in the jackpot.
Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Mr. Z comes into the jackpot with a 1-3-0 record in six starts, including three second-place finishes in the Sanford Stakes (G3), Saratoga Special (G2 and the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). In his last race, Mr. Z finished fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), 8¼-lengths behind the winner, Texas Red.
Mr. Z showed promise last June breaking his maiden by half a length. Since then, he hasn’t shown me that “will to win” which is so necessary to be competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail. If I use Mr. Z in my wagers, it will be in the bottom the exotics.
A mild, long shot I like in this race is Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1) who ships in from Santa Anita Park for trainer James Cassidy. Undefeated in two starts, Ocho Ocho Ocho looked impressive on Breeders’ Cup weekend, cruising to a 5¾-length victory in the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes which was taken off the turf. Here’s the chart call and video:

OCHO OCHO OCHO had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away under urging in midstretch and won clear in hand late.

The ease in which Ocho Ocho Ocho won indicates that he should not have a problem stretching out to the 8½-furlong distance of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) and he has the breeding to be competitive as the distance gets longer.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a cross of Mr. Prospector over Northern Dancer which is the most successful nick on the American Triple Crown Trail, producing 12 Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.
Street Sense, the sire of Ocho Ocho Ocho, won the 2007 Kentucky Derby, and, his damsire, Horse Chestnut, the South African Horse of the Year and Champion Three Year Old Colt, won the 1999 South African Triple Crown.
I look for Ocho Ocho Ocho to run a good race.
Local challenger, Golden Actor, is the 7-2 morning-line second choice, and he comes into the jackpot with a 2-1-0 record in three starts, including a 4¼-length win in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs on October 25. Here’s the chart call and video:

GOLDEN ACTOR well placed early from the inside, steadily advanced up the backstretch, reached a striking position entering the second turn, gained the margin and was well clear in a solid effort.

Golden Actor also has the breeding to be competitive in the jackpot. Curlin, the sire of Golden Actor, is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he’s bred on a nick with Deputy Minister who’s an influential descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd.
Curlin was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred who won the 2007 Preakness Stakes (G1), finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and he was third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). In addition, Curlin won the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Theatrical, the damsire, of Golden Actor, was an impressive, Irish-bred turf horse, who, during his racing season as a three year old, won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes (Group 2) and finished second in the Joe McGrath Irish Sweeps Derby (Group1).
After that season, Theatrical was shipped to America and during his career he placed in multiple graded stakes races and won the Breeders' Cup Turf Stakes (G1), Turf Classic Stakes (G1), Man O' War Stakes (G1), Bowling Green Handicap (G1), Sword Dancer Handicap (G1), Hialeah Turf Cup Handicap (G1) and Red Smith Handicap (G2).
Golden Actor has been working out good at Delta Downs and two back-to-back bullet works could have him ready to run a good race.
Another long shot I like in this race is Prime Engine (8-1) who ships in from Emerald Downs for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Prime Engine broke his maiden on September 13 by an impressive 10 lengths, and, two weeks later, he followed that performance with another blowout win by 5½-lengths in the Gottstein Futurity Stakes. Here’s the chart call and video:

PRIME ENGINE broke sharply to stalk the pace of TRACKATTACKER from the outside, moved up to take command nearing the five-sixteenths pole, quickly opened a widening lead and was ridden out to the wire to be kept to task.

I like it that Prime Engine showed versatility by breaking his maiden in a sprint race and then he stretched out to win the Gottstein Futurity Stakes at 8½-furlongs. After his win in the Gottstein, owner Dr. Mark DeDomenico transferred Prime Engine to Hollendorfer for training.
“He might be special,” said Hollendorfer in a sfgate.com sports article. “I watched tape of his races and I’m feeling quite lucky that Dr. DeDomenico let me train him. He’s 8-to-1, so the odds makers aren’t picking him, but we think he’s good enough to try for the big purse.”
Northern Afleet, the sire of Prime Engine, also sired the 2005 Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, Afleet Alex.
Unbridled’s Song, the damsire of Prime Engine, was a competitive two year old that won the 1995 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1). As a three year old, Unbridled’s Song won the Florida Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) in route to a fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
Whether Prime Engine has any classic potential remains to be seen, but I look for him to run a good race in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3). He’s been working out good, recently, at Santa Anita Park and a bullet work on November 2 could have Prime Engine “primed” to run a career best at nice odds.
Mr. Z, Red Button (12-1), Saratoga Heater and Conquest Tsunami (4-1) could round out the exotics.

*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2014/2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Carpe Diem, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
2. Texas Red, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $1,136,000
3. American Pharoah, 10, Bob Baffert, $360,000
4. Daredevil, 10, Todd Pletcher, $300,000
5. International Star, 10, Mike Maker, $120,028
6. Lucky Player, 10, Steve Asmussen, $94,151
7. Upstart, 6, Rick Violette Jr., $300,000
8. Bold Conquest, 6, Steve Asmussen, $72,176
9. Mr. Z, 4, D. Wayne Lukas, $233,326
10. Conquest Typhoon, 4, Mark Casse, $221,827
11. Calculator, 4, Peter Miller, $120,000
12. Hashtag Bourbon, 2, Kellyn Gorder, $74,117
13. The Truth Or Else, 2, Kenny McPeek, $50,000
14. Hollywood Critic, 2, Barbara Minshall, $35,528
15. The Great War, 1, Aidan O’Brien, $170,702
16. Lord Nelson, 1, Bob Baffert, $78,000
17. Danny Boy, 1, Dale Romans, $55,544
18. El Kabeir, 1, John Terranova II, $25,000
18. Tough Customer, 1, Wayne Catalano, $25,000
19. Flashaway, 1, Mark Casse, $6,669