Friday, March 28, 2014

UAE Derby Racing Roundup



©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” takes us overseas Saturday to the emirate of Dubai in the country of the United Arab Emirates where Giovanni Boldini heads a field of 12 young Thoroughbreds as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 14th running of the $2 million UAE Derby (G1) at Meydan Racecourse.
Television coverage of Dubai Racing can be seen Saturday on HRTV and TVG beginning at 9 a.m., ET. You can also watch Dubai Racing online here.
Of the 12 horses entered in the UAE Derby (G1), Giovanni Boldini, stablemate Sir John Hawkins (12-1) and Toast of New York (20-1) are the only horses that have been nominated to run in the Triple Crown. If one of those three wins this race, he will receive 100 points and a guaranteed spot in the starting gate of Kentucky Derby 140, provided that the connections want to run him the Derby.
For the past two years, the connections of Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, owners of Giovanni Boldini and Sir John Hawkins, have won the UAE Derby (G1) with Daddy Long Legs (2012) and Lines of Battle (2013) and both horses competed in the Kentucky Derby. So, it’s a good bet that if either of their two horses wins the UAE Derby (G1), he will probably run in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
I think that Giovanni Boldini and Sir John Hawkins will be competitive in this race. But, of those two, I like Sir John Hawkins the best and he’s my long shot pick to win the UAE Derby (G1).
Sir John Hawkins, a son of Henrythenavigator, has yet to run in a route race for trainer Aidan O’Brien and he comes into the Derby with 1-0-2 record in four starts. But, you can bet that O’Brien has run Sir John Hawkins over a route of ground many times in training and the connections have a good idea of his potential in this race.
And, Sir John Hawkins is the best-bred colt in this race with many magnificent Ancestral Herd influences which I will elaborate about later if he wins and runs in the Kentucky Derby.
One never knows how these young colts will fare as three year olds, but if Sir John Hawkins lives up to his breeding, I look for him to be tough in the UAE Derby (G1).
Argentinian import Cooptado (8-1) comes into the Derby with a 3-3-1 record in seven starts including a second-place finish in the Polla De Potrillos (Argentine Two Thousand Guineas, G1) and a win in the Gran Premio Nacional (Argentine Derby, G1) and looks like he could be very tough in this race.
Long John (3-1), winner of the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (G3), is a fast horse who should be able to handle the stretch out in distance and I look for him to be competitive.
A Toast of New York also has good breeding and he’s another long shot I like in this race.

*****

Only three horses that have been entered in the UAE Derby (G1) are nominated to run in the Triple Crown – Giovanni Boldini, Sir John Hawkins and Toast of New York. If either of them finish in the top four they will receive 100 points for the win, 40 points for second-place, 20 points for third-place and 10 points for fourth-place. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. We Miss Artie, 60, Todd Pletcher, $544,000
2. Samraat, 60, Rick Violette, Jr., $450,000
3. Hoppertunity, 55, Bob Baffert, $376,000
4. Chitu, 54, Bob Baffert, $440,000
5. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500
6. Midnight Hawk, 52, Bob Baffert, $320,000
7. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000
8. Ring Weekend, 50, Graham Motion, $210,000
9. California Chrome, 50, Art Sherman, $182,250
10. Tapiture, 42, Steve Asmussen, $420,738
11. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000
11. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
13. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
14. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000
15. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000
16. Ride On Curlin, 15, Billy Gowan, $154,387
17. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
18. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000
19. Kristo, 14, John Sadler, $56,000
20. Coastline, 13, Mark Casse, $129,679

*****

DUBAI WORD CUP

       A field of 16 horses will go to the starting gate Saturday in the 18th running of the $10 million Dubai World Cup (G1) at Meydan Racecourse.
       I took a quick look at this race and landed on the 9-2 morning-line favorite, Ruler of the World. He was my long shot pick to win the Epsom Derby (G1) and I like him in this race, too.
       Hokko Tarumae (12-1) is a long shot I like and think that he’ll be tough in this race.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Louisiana Derby Racing Roundup



©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The mad stampede for coveted Kentucky Derby points continues Saturday at the Fair Grounds Race Course where Intense Holiday, the morning-line 2-1 favorite, heads a herd of ten young Thoroughbreds in the 101st running of the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G1). The winner of this race will receive 100 points and a guaranteed spot in the Derby starting gate.
Live television coverage of the Louisiana Derby (G1) will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network at 6:30 p.m., ET – post time for the race is 7:10 p.m. Let’s take a look at the race.
Intense Holiday comes into the Derby with a 2-0-1 record in seven starts including a narrow win by a nose in his last race, the Risen Start Stakes (G2). Intense Holiday struggled as a two year old and, despite his poor win record, he’s been keeping good company on the trail with the likes of Havana, Honor Code and Cairo Prince.
His narrow win in the Risen Star was the first stakes win for Intense Holiday whose previous best in stakes competition was a third-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2).
Mike Smith, the jockey who rode Intense Holiday to victory in the Risen Star, retains the mount in the Derby. Intense Holiday has been working out good at the Palm Meadows Training Center and a recent bullet work could have him ready to run a good race. I look for Intense Holiday to be competitive.
In Trouble (4-1) ships in from New York for trainer Anthony Dutrow and he comes into the Derby with a 2-0-1 record in three starts including a 2 ¾-length win in the Futurity Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park last September.
After that race, Dutrow gave In Trouble a five-month layoff and brought him back in March as a three year old to compete in the Gotham Stakes (G3) where he finished a respectable third, just one-half length behind Samraat and Uncle Sigh.
In Trouble has the breeding to handle the stretch out to 9-furlongs and he’s been working out good at the Palm Meadows Training Center where he fired a bullet on February 12. He has room to improve in his second start of the season as a three year old and another move forward off of his third-place finish in the Gotham Stakes (G3) will make In Trouble competitive in the Louisiana Derby (G1).
Commanding Curve (20-1) was my long shot pick in the Risen Star and I like him in this race, too. He comes into the Derby for trainer Dallas Stewart with a 1-1-1 record in five starts including a sixth-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2).
Despite his sixth-place finish, Commanding Curve came into that race off of a 2½-month layoff and he has room to improve in his second start of the season as a three year old. And Commanding Curve has the breeding to be more competitive as the races get longer.
Master Command, the sire of Commanding Curve, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled an 8-2-2 record in 17 starts with $1,137,188 in career earnings. He made only two sprint starts at 6-furlongs, finishing second in both races, while all of his other races were in routes where he excelled at 9-furlongs.
Of Master Command’s eight victories, five of them were in stakes competition. His most notable stakes wins were in the National Jockey Club Handicap (G3), New Orleans Handicap (G2), Meadowlands Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G2) and the William Donald Schaefer Handicap (G3), all at 9-furlongs, and the 8½-furlong Mineshaft Handicap (G3).
Another move forward could, perhaps, make Commanding Curve competitive enough to factor in the exotics.
Albano (9-2) comes into this race for trainer Larry Jones with a 2-2-1 record in five starts. As a three year old, he’s yet to win in stakes competition, finishing second in both the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G3).
Istan, the sire of Albano, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who ran his best at a mile but was able to carry his speed to victory in the 8½-furlong Budweiser Challenger Stakes.

*****

The winner of the Louisiana Derby (G1) will receive 100 points while second place will yield 40 points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. We Miss Artie, 60, Todd Pletcher, $544,000
2. Samraat, 60, Rick Violette, Jr., $450,000
3. Hoppertunity, 55, Bob Baffert, $376,000
4. Chitu, 54, Bob Baffert, $440,000
5. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500
6. Midnight Hawk, 52, Bob Baffert, $320,000
7. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000
8. Ring Weekend, 50, Graham Motion, $210,000
9. California Chrome, 50, Art Sherman, $182,250
10. Tapiture, 42, Steve Asmussen, $420,738
11. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000
11. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
13. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
14. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000
15. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000
16. Ride On Curlin, 15, Billy Gowan, $154,387
17. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
18. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000
19. Kristo, 14, John Sadler, $56,000
20. Coastline, 13, Mark Casse, $129,679

Florida Derby Racing Roundup



©2014 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” enters the stretch drive this weekend with the UAE Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G1) kicking off phase three of the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby (G1) starting gate. The winner of those races will receive 100 points each and it’s “Now or Never” for many of the horses on the Derby Trail.
Television coverage of Dubai Racing can be seen Saturday on HRTV and TVG beginning at 9 a.m., ET. You can also watch Dubai Racing online here. Live coverage of the Florida Derby (G1) and Louisiana Derby (G1) will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network at 6:30 p.m., ET.
Let’s take a look at the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park.
Cairo Prince, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, has been tabbed at the morning-line 9-5 favorite. He comes into the Derby with a 3-1-0 record in four starts including wins in the Nashua Stakes (G2), Remsen Stakes (G2) and Holy Bull Stakes (G2) which he won by an impressive 5¾-lengths in January.
Despite the two-month layoff since his last race, McLaughlin thinks that Cairo Prince is a “special horse” and you can read more of his comments at the Downey Profile here.
Cairo Prince has been training well at the Palm Meadows Training Center and a recent bullet work could have him ready to run a good race. Cairo Prince looms as the horse to beat.
A long shot I like in this race is Spot (8-1) who comes into the Derby with 2-1-0 record in six starts including a win in the 7-furlong Swale Stakes (G2) at Gulstream Park earlier this month. The fractions in the Swale were blistering fast and Spot, who trailed early, looked impressive coming from the back of the herd to beat No Nay Never, the 2-5 heavy favorite, by 2½-lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of Spot’s win in the Swale:

SPOT unhurried early, swung out for the stretch run, then rallied to take over nearing the eighth pole and drew clear.

Spot has the breeding to handle the stretch out to 9-furlongs and Nick Zito, the trainer of Spot, knows how to get young horses ready for big races. He’s won the Derby three times with Dialed In (2011), Ice Box (2010) and High Fly (2005).
Spot could be getting good at the right time of year and a recent bullet work out at the Palm Meadows Training Center could have him ready to run a good race for a decent price.
General a Rod (7-2), trained by Michael Maker, and Constitution (4-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, look like they could be competitive.
General a Rod comes into the Derby with a 2-2-0 record in four starts including a narrow loss by a head in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) to Wildcat Red (3-1) who’s also entered in this race. Constitution comes into this race undefeated in two starts including a 3¼-length win in an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on February 22.
But another long shot I’m most interested in is East Hall (20-1) who comes into this race with a 2-1-4 record in 12 starts for trainer William Kaplan. East Hall finished third, just 2¼-lengths behind General a Rod and Wildcat Red, in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby on January 1. And in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) last month, East Hall finished fourth to the dueling Wildcat Red and General a Rod who covered the 8½-furlongs in a fast time of 1:41.85.
I’m not so sure that General a Rod and Wildcat Red can carry their speed to 9-furlongs and, if they fade at the end, that could be a good opportunity for East Hall to figure in the exotics at a nice price.

*****

The winner of the Florida Derby (G1) will receive 100 points while second place will yield 40 points, the third-place finisher will receive 20 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 10 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. We Miss Artie, 60, Todd Pletcher, $544,000
2. Samraat, 60, Rick Violette, Jr., $450,000
3. Hoppertunity, 55, Bob Baffert, $376,000
4. Chitu, 54, Bob Baffert, $440,000
5. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500
6. Midnight Hawk, 52, Bob Baffert, $320,000
7. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000
8. Ring Weekend, 50, Graham Motion, $210,000
9. California Chrome, 50, Art Sherman, $182,250
10. Tapiture, 42, Steve Asmussen, $420,738
11. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000
11. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
13. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
14. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000
15. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000
16. Ride On Curlin, 15, Billy Gowan, $154,387
17. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
18. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000
19. Kristo, 14, John Sadler, $56,000
20. Coastline, 13, Mark Casse, $129,679