Friday, April 13, 2018

Lexington Stakes Racing Roundup


©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby comes to an end with the final prep races at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky and Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs Arkansas.
At Keeneland, MY BOY JACK heads a herd of twelve young Thoroughbreds as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 37th running of the $200,000 Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3). Post time is 5:34 p.m. ET.
My Boy Jack is ranked 21st on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard and he needs at least a second-place finish to make it into the Derby staring gate. He comes into this race with a 2-3-2 record in nine starts for trainer Keith Desormeaux including a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MY BOY JACK dropped well behind early, went two to three wide on the first turn, drifted well out in the track early on the backstretch, angled in near the seven-sixteenths, started the far turn in about the two patch, angled seven wide while gaining late on that bend, came eight wide into the stretch, closed strongly to make a bid near the eighth-pole, battled with the top two in the final furlong and then missed while well clear for the show.

My Boy Jack ran at the back of the herd, twelve lengths off the leaders, until he entered the far turn where he made a huge run to close the gap and get up for third, just three-quarters of a length shy of victory.
Creative Cause, the sire of My Boy Jack, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 4-2-3 record in 10 starts with $1,039,000 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Creative Cause compiled a 3-1-1 record in five starts with wins in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and Norfolk Stakes (G1). He finished second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1).
As a three-year-old, Creative Cause was 1-1-2 in five starts. He finished third in his debut as a three-year-old in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and followed that with a win in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) en route to a respectable fifth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Creative Cause finished his racing career with a third-place finish in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, My Boy Jack is one of the best-bred colts in this herd and I look for him to run a good race.
GREYVITOS (6-1) makes his debut as a three-year-old for trainer Adam Kitchingman and he comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in four starts including a win in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

GREYVITOS stalked the pace while three wide on the backstretch, rallied on the far turn and drew clear in upper stretch then was kept to a drive to the end.

Greyvitos raced in third behind the leaders to the far turn when he took command at the top of the stretch and pulled away to win by 2¼ lengths.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Greyvitos, made only two starts as a two-year-old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley, Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher, Moonshine Memories, Ransom the Moon, and Malibu Mint.
Greyvitos has not raced in three months but, despite the layoff, with an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be competitive in this race.
TELEKINESIS (4-1) comes into this race with a 1-0-1 record in two starts for trainer Mark Casse including a third-place finish in his last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TELEKINESIS angled in while going to the front, contested the pace on the inside while in hand, was asked at the five-sixteenths, came under a left-handed whip in upper stretch, fought into the final sixteenth then was out finished while well clear for the show.

Telekinesis broke sharply and took the lead setting soft fractions to the final yards when he was bested by two rivals and came up 1¾ lengths shy of victory.
Ghostzapper, a 2012 Hall of Fame inductee and the sire of Telekinesis, was an incredibly talented, multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 9-0-1 record in 11 starts with $3,466,120 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Ghostzapper won his maiden special weight debut by nine lengths and was 1-0-0 in two starts. At the age of three, Ghostzapper won the Vosburgh Stakes (G1) and finished third in the King’s Bishop (G1), compiling a 3-0-1 record in four starts.
As a four-year-old, Ghostzapper was undefeated in four starts winning the Tom Fool Handicap (G2), Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G3), Woodward Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (G1). In addition, Ghostzapper was selected as the 2004 Eclipse Horse of the Year and Eclipse Champion Older Horse.
In his only start as a five-year-old, Ghostzapper was a 6 ¼ length winner of the one-mile Metropolitan Handicap (G1).
Telekinesis has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this herd.
BATTLE AT SEA (8-1) comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in five starts for trainer Michael Maker including a win in the Crescent City Derby. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

BATTLE AT SEA went three then two wide on the first turn, set an uncontested pace, raced in the two path on the far turn, was asked outside the quarter pole, came under a right-handed whip in upper stretch, switched to a left-handed whip at the furlong marker and proved best under strong urging.

Battle At Sea led throughout and held off challengers in the final yards to win by 2¼ lengths.
Into Mischief, the sire of Battle At Sea, was a precocious colt and multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-3-0 record in six starts with $597,080 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Into Mischief easily won his maiden debut by 2½ lengths at Santa Anita Park on October 21, 2007. He went on to finish second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and followed that with a win in the 8½-furlong CashCall Futurity (G1). His finish time of 1:40.82 was just a few ticks off of the record time of 1:40.74 set by Afternoon Deelites and the second fastest time of 1:40.78 set by Valiant Nature.
In his debut as a three-year-old in February 2008, Into Mischief finished second in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and after an extended break, he returned to racing in October winning the Damascus Stakes by two lengths. In December, Into Mischief finished his racing season with a second-place finish in the Malibu Stakes (G1).
On the Kentucky Derby Trail, his best runners have been Audible, winner of the Florida Derby (G1), Goldencents, Practical Joke, Vyjack and Vicar’s in Trouble. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby and finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Practical Joke finished second in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) and fifth in the Derby. Vyjack finished third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) and 18th in the Derby. Vicar’s in Trouble won the Louisiana Derby and finished 19th in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Harlan’s Holiday, the grandsire of Audible, won the Florida Derby (G1), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Battle At Sea has a low F Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index potentially makes him competitive in this herd.
Pony Up (6-1), Magicalmeister (20-1) and Zanesville (20-1) are the honorable mentions in this race.
Here’s a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Brisnet Prime Power of the horses entered in the Lexington Stakes (G3):



In the first chart, Greyvitos is ranked first with an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. My Boy Jack is ranked second with an A profile. Magicalmeister is ranked third with an B profile and Pony Up is ranked fourth with a C profile.
In addition to the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move horses up or down in ranking.
In the second chart, the Behavior Index of Telekinesis, Battle At Sea and Zanesville potentially moves them up in ranking. Time will tell if it was justifiable to add the Behavior Index variable to those horses.


*****

2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 134, Chad Brown, $1,838,400
2. Audible, 110, Todd Pletcher, $803,520
3. Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000
4. Vino Rosso, 107, Todd Pletcher, $572,500
5. Bolt d’Oro, 104, Mick Ruis, $980,000
6. Enticed, 103, Kiaran McLaughlin, $545,880
7. Mendelssohn, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
8. Justify, 100, Bob Baffert, $600,000
9. Flameaway, 70, Mark Casse, $672,260
10. Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913
11. Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480
12. Magnum Moon, 50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000
13. Runaway Ghost, 50, $520,310
14. Quip, 50, Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000
15. +Free Drop Billy, 44, Dale Romans, $597,200
16. Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347
17. Hofburg, 40, Bill Mott, $192,000
18. Firenze Fire, 39, Jason Servis, $647,500
19. +Solomini, 34, Bob Baffert, $616,000
European Road Qualifier
20. Gronkowski, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
+ = Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. McKinzie is off the Derby trail with and injury.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. *GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
2. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
3. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
4. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
5. Iconic Sunset (GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139
6. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
7. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076
8. Court House (IRE), 8, John Gosden, $0
9. Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti, $21,854
10. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630
11. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
12. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
13. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
14. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4, Andrew Balding, $1,800
15. Purser, 3, John Gosden, $19,215
16. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
17. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
18. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
20. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
          *Mendelssohn, Gronkowski, Threeandfourpence and Seahenge are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo Takahashi, $291,287
2. *RUGGERO (JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861
3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori Makiura, $299,689
4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935
5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $436,916
6. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696
7. Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586
8. Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981
9. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796
10. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920
11. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979
*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes. 




























Thursday, April 12, 2018

Arkansas Derby Racing Roundup


©2018 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes us to Hot Springs, Arkansas, where the final prep race worth 100 points to the victor will be ran at Oaklawn Park. A field of nine Thoroughbreds has been drawn for the 82nd running of the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) with MAGNUM MOON tagged as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Post time is 7:18 ET.
Undefeated in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, Magnum Moon returns to the track as the hero of the Rebel Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MAGNUM MOON pressed the pace in the three path, bid on the far turn, went clear in the stretch and won under intermittent pressure.

Magnum Moon stalked the pace on the outside and was in perfect position at the top of the stretch to take the lead and win by 3½ lengths. The time of 1:36.39 for the mile and final time of 1:42.68 is what I like to see young colts run on the Derby trail.
Malibu Moon made only two starts as a two-year-old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley, Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher, Moonshine Memories, Ransom the Moon, and Malibu Mint.
Magnum Moon has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and a couple of recent bullet work outs could have him ready to run another good race.
SOLOMINI (2-1) is 1-3-1 in five starts and he comes into this race off a second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

SOLOMINI stalked the pace in the three path, bid at the quarter pole and was steadied while in tight, then came again late.

Solomini saved ground at the rail but was stuck behind horses at the top of the stretch until he finally found room and was able to get up for second place.
Curlin, the sire of Solomini, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
With an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Solomini was a yearling (Hip 662) we profiled in session four at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and he’s is the best-bred colt in this herd.
Solomini has room to improve in his second start of the season and I look for him to take a step forward in the stretch out in distance.
Undefeated in two starts for trainer Hall of Fame Trainer Steve Asmussen, TENFOLD (10-1) is a long shot I like in this race. He comes into the Derby off a win in an Allowance Optional Claiming race last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TENFOLD broke readily to gain a forward position tracking just off the leaders while angling inward a bit on the first turn, continued outside a rival under light rating to the second bend, shifted three deep nearing upper stretch while advancing to challenge for command, then wrested a narrow advantage in time under firm handling.

In just his second start, Tenfold showed a lot of grit in his stretch duel with Navistar to prevail by a neck in a final time of 1:44.16.
Curlin, the sire of Tenfold, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Tenfold is a lightly race, improving colt, and with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he has the breeding to be competitive in this race.
Hall of Fame Jockey Victor Espinoza picks up the mount on Tenfold who has room to improve in his third start of the season. However, he’ll need to pick the pace considerably if he’s going the earn graded stakes honors.
COMBATANT (6-1) comes into this race with a 1-3-1 record in six starts for trainer Steve Asmussen including a third-place finish in the Rebel Stakes (G2) last out. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

COMBATANT was bumped early, bid inside at the three-eighths pole, angled three wide at the stretch and just missed the place.

Combatant ran toward the back of the herd but made up good ground on the far turn and stretch to close the gap and get up for third-place.
Scat Daddy, the sire of Combatant, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
In his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish in the Derby.
In addition to Combatant, Scat Daddy’s best runners on the Derby Trail include Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway, Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El Kabeir, Frac Daddy, Azar and Dice Flavor who was my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real Derby (G3).
Combatant has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to QUIP (6-1) who comes into this race off a win the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).
Here’s a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and Brisnet Prime Power of the horses entered in the Arkansas Derby (G1):































In the first chart Solomini is ranked first with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. Tenfold is ranked second with an A+ profile. Magnum Moon is ranked third with an A profile and Combatant is ranked fourth with a C profile.
In addition to the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® we also have developed a Behavior Index which allows us to move horses up or down in ranking. In the first chart, honorable mention Quip is ranked seventh but his Behavior Index potentially moves him up in ranking to fifth in the second chart.



2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. +Good Magic, 134, Chad Brown, $1,838,400
2. Audible, 110, Todd Pletcher, $803,520
3. Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000
4. Vino Rosso, 107, Todd Pletcher, $572,500
5. Bolt d’Oro, 104, Mick Ruis, $980,000
6. Enticed, 103, Kiaran McLaughlin, $545,880
7. Mendelssohn, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
8. Justify, 100, Bob Baffert, $600,000
9. Flameaway, 70, Mark Casse, $672,260
10. Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913
11. Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480
12. Magnum Moon, 50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000
13. Runaway Ghost, 50, $520,310
14. Quip, 50, Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000
15. +Free Drop Billy, 44, Dale Romans, $597,200
16. Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347
17. Hofburg, 40, Bill Mott, $192,000
18. Firenze Fire, 39, Jason Servis, $647,500
19. +Solomini, 34, Bob Baffert, $616,000
European Road Qualifier
20. Gronkowski, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
+ = Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. McKinzie is off the Derby trail with and injury.


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. *GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
2. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
3. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan O’Brien, $245,017
4. Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
5. Iconic Sunset (GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139
6. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan O’Brien, $543,648
7. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076
8. Court House (IRE), 8, John Gosden, $0
9. Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti, $21,854
10. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630
11. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude Rouget, $113,505
12. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $99,826
13. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
14. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4, Andrew Balding, $1,800
15. Purser, 3, John Gosden, $19,215
16. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $101,264
17. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan O’Brien, $71.981
18. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston, $64,634
20. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke, $12,904
          *Mendelssohn, Gronkowski, Threeandfourpence and Seahenge are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.


JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo Takahashi, $291,287
2. *RUGGERO (JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861
3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori Makiura, $299,689
4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10, Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935
5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori Makiura, $436,916
6. Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696
7. Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586
8. Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981
9. Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796
10. Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920
11. Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979

*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes.