Saturday, September 30, 2017

Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère Stakes Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

On Sunday, the European road to the 2017-2018 Kentucky Derby (G1) takes us to Chantilly Racecourse in Chantilly, France where the Godolphin runners MASAR and MYTHICAL MAGIC have been tabbed as the 3-5 Twinspires.com morning line favorite in the Group One Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère. Of that pair, I like Masar the best.
Masar comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in three starts for trainer Charles Appleby including a win by two lengths in the BetBright Solario Stakes (Group 3) at Sandown on September 2. Here’s the video and chart call:

MASAR tracked leaders, led over one furlong out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well.

New Approach, the sire of Masar, is a Classic Champion Thoroughbred and multiple Group Stakes winner that compiled an 8-2-1 record in 11 starts with $3,885,308 in career earnings.
As a two year old, New Approach was undefeated in five of his starts including four Group Stakes: Tyros Stakes (Group 3), Galileo E.B.F. Futurity Stakes (Group 2), Bank of Scotland National Stakes (Group 1) and the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1).
At the age of three, New Approach placed in three Group Stakes races and won the Vodafone Epsom Derby (Group 1), Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1) and the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group 1).
As a stallion, New Approach has sired numerous Group Stakes winners including the Classic Champion Thoroughbred, Dawn Approach (2,000 Guineas).
Masar has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to run a good race.
HAPPILY (5-2) comes into this race with a 3-1-0 record in five starts for trainer Aiden O’Brien including a win by a nose last out in the Molyglare Stud Stakes (Group 1) at the Curragh on September 10. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

HAPPILY broke well to lead early until soon headed and settled behind leader, third after one furlong, ridden two furlongs out and pressed winner in second entering final furlong, kept on well under pressure inside final furlong to lead final strides.

Galileo, the sire of Happily, is a Classic Champion Thoroughbred and multiple Group Stakes winner that compiled a 6-1-0 record in eight starts with $2,245,373 in career earnings.
Galileo made only one start as a two year old, easily winning by an impressive 14 lengths.
As a three year old, Galileo won his season debut in the Ballysax Stakes. He followed that with his first Group win in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trail Stakes (Group 3). Galileo then earned classic honors with wins in the Vodafone Epsom Derby (Group 1) and the Budweiser Irish Derby (Group 1). His last group stakes win was in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (Group 1).
As a stallion, Galileo currently leads the Top sires of European Stakes winners list with 68 Group One winners and, except for 2010, that’s an honor he’s held since 2009.
Galileo has sired numerous Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: Frankel (2,000 Guineas), Australia (Derby), Ruler Of The World (Derby), Magician (Irish 2,000 Guineas), Gleneagles (2,000 Guineas, Irish 2,000 Guineas), The Gurkha (French 2,000 Guineas), Churchill (2,000 Guineas, Irish 2,000 Guineas), Roderic O’Connor (Irish 2,000 Guineas), Treasure Beach (Irish Derby), Capri (Irish Derby, St. Leger), Soldier Of Fortune (Irish Derby), Order Of St George (Irish St. Leger), Cape Blanco (Irish Derby), Sixties Icon (St. Leger) and New Approach (Derby).
Happily, a full sister to the classic miler, Gleneagles, also has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and she’s the best bred horse in this herd. I look for her to run well.
A long shot I like in this race is WOODMAX (50-1). To date he’s compiled a 2-0-0 record in three starts for trainer Nicolas Clement including a one length win in the Prix Pharamond Conditions Stakes at Maisons-Lafitte on September 20. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

WOODMAX waited with in final pair on outer, angled out and began to close well over 1½ furlongs out, ridden to challenge over one furlong out, led entering final furlong, driven out, readily.

Maxios, the sire of Woodmax, was a multiple Group Stakes winner that compiled an 8-2-0 record in 18 starts with $935,961 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Maxios won his maiden debut and followed that with a win in the Prix Thomas Bryon (Group 3). At the age of three, Maxios was unplaced in four starts.
As a four year old, Maxios notable stakes win was in the La Coupe de Maisons-Lafitte (Group 3). At the age of five, Maxis won the Prix d’Harcourt (Group 2), Prix d’Ispahan (Group 1) and the Qatar Prix du Moulin de Longchamp (Group 1).
Woodmax has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding to be competitive in this race.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 10, Aidan O’Brien
1. Roaring Lion (USA), 10, John Gosden
3. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien
3. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien
5. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke
5. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark Johnston
7. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien
7. Petrus (IRE), 1, Brian Meehan


2017/2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli
2. Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans
3. Ten City, 2, Ken McPeek

4. Ebben, 1, Steve Margolis 

Friday, September 29, 2017

FrontRunner Stakes Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby will span two continents this Saturday with the $300,000 FrontRunner Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park and the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) at the Newmarket Racecourse Rowley Mile in Suffolk, England. On Sunday, the European road to Derby glory continues with the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Group 1) at Chantilly Racecourse in Chantilly, France.
Let’s take a look at the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) which is the first Grade One race on the Kentucky Derby Trail and a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Race.
Bolt d’Oro heads a herd of nine runners as the 2-1 morning line favorite which is scheduled to run at 7 p.m. ET. Undefeated in two starts, Bolt d’Oro comes into this race with a narrow win over Zatter (5-2) in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

BOLT D’ORO broke a bit slowly and was squeezed some, settled off the rail, advanced four wide on the turn and into the stretch, bid outside the runner-up under urging past mid-stretch, gained the lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed.

Bolt d’Oro trailed at the back of the herd gradually making up ground on the leaders. Despite the narrow win, Bolt d’Oro appeared to be in control and will probably improve as the races get longer.
Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of Stradivari, was a good middle-distance runner that compiled an 8-7-0 record in 17 starts with $5,754,720 in career earnings. Overall, he had seven wins and five second-place finishes in 14 route races.
Medaglia d’Oro finished second in his only start as a two year old but as a three year old he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
In the Preakness Stakes (G1), Medaglia d’Oro finished eighth but rebounded from that run to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He went on to complete his racing season as a three year old with wins in the nine-furlong Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
As a four year old, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Strub Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1). In addition, he finished second in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
At the age of five, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Donn Handicap (G1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (G1
Bolt d’Oro has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to run a good race.
Zatter, the 5-2 morning line second choice, is trained by Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert who also has Solomini (4-1) entered in this race.
Of the pair, I like Solomini the best. He comes into this race off of a maiden debut win at Del Mar on September 2 and he was a yearling (Hip 662) I liked in session four at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
Here’s the video and chart call of Solomini’s debut win:

SOLOMINI stalked five wide early then four wide into the turn, continued three deep into the stretch, lugged in some in mid-stretch, went after the runner-up under left-handed urging, collared that one in deep stretch and inched clear.

Solomini showed promise in winning his debut and should improve off of that race.
Curlin, the sire of Solomini, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16 career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two year old. But, at the age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1), Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy Handicap.
Solomini is taking a big step up in class but with an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s the best bred colt in this herd. I look for him to run a good race and if he lives up to his breeding he could be a factor on the Derby Trail.
Encumbered (8-1) is undefeated in his last two starts on the turf and he comes into this race with a 2-0-0 record in three starts for trainer Simon Callaghan including a win by a half-length in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ENCUMBERED angled in and chased three deep then outside a rival, came four wide into the stretch, gained the advantage outside foes in mid-stretch, inched away in deep stretch and held gamely under urging.

Encumbered has shown good speed in his two wins on the turf and if he can perform that well on a dirt surface he could be a factor in this race.
Violence, the sire of Encumbered, showed promise as a two year old on the Kentucky Derby Trail winning his first three starts including the Nashua Stakes (G2) and the CashCall Futurity (G1).
In his debut as a three year old, Violence finished second in the Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) but had suffered a fractured sesamoid bone which ended his career.
Encumbered has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® but his Behavior Index can make him competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
A long shot I like is Ayacara (10-1) who comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Keith Desormeaux including a maiden win in his second start. Here’s the video and chart call:

AYACARA chased between horses then a bit off the rail, split rivals on the second turn, bid between foes in mid-stretch, gained the advantage nearing the sixteenth pole and held on gamely under urging.

His final time of 1:38.34 is slower than what I like to see in young colts on the Derby Trail. However, he gets a jockey switch to Kent Desormeaux and if he picks up the pace he could be competitive.
Ayacara has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he also was sired by Violence.
Honorable mention goes to Zatter and Take the One O One (15-1).


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


2017/2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli
2. Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans
3. Ten City, 2, Ken McPeek
4. Ebben, 1, Steve Margolis


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 10, Aidan O’Brien
2. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien
3. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke

4. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien

Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The road to the 2017-2018 Kentucky Derby (G1) will span two continents this Saturday with the $300,000 FrontRunner Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park and the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) at the Newmarket Racecourse Rowley Mile in Suffolk, England.
On Sunday, the European road to Derby glory continues with the Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (Group 1) at Chantilly Racecourse in Chantilly, France.
Let’s take a look at the Royal Lodge where Nelson has been tabbed as even money Twinspires.com morning line favorite. Post time for the Royal Lodge is 8:50 a.m. ET.
Nelson comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Aiden O’Brien including a win in the Willis Towers Watson Champions Juvenile Stakes (Group 3).
Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

NELSON tracked leader in second until led after one furlong, ridden to extend advantage two furlongs out, clear approaching final furlong, stayed on strongly.

Frankel, the sire of Nelson, is a Classic Champion Thoroughbred that was undefeated in 14 starts including ten Group One victories with $4,789,144 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Frankel won his first two weight for age races and then won the Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) and Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1).
Frankel won his debut as a three year old in the Totesport.com Greenham Stakes (Gr. 3) and then proceeded to finish out his racing season with nine Group One victories: QIPCO Two Thousand Guineas, St. James's Palace Stakes, QIPCO Sussex Stakes (twice), QIPCO Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, JLT Lockinge Stakes, Queen Anne Stakes, Juddmonte International Stakes and the QIPCO Champion Stakes.
Nelson has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the best bred colt in this race.
Undefeated in two starts, Roaring Lion is a long shot I like at 9-2 morning line odds. He comes into this race for trainer John Gosden off of an impressive four-length win in the 32Red On The App Store/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

ROARING LION pressed leader until led just over two furlongs out, ridden and asserted over one furlong out, ran green and hung left but ran on strongly inside final furlong, very readily.

Kitten’s Joy, the sire of Roaring Lion, was an outstanding router and multiple graded stakes winner who, in three racing seasons, compiled a 9-4-0 record in 14 starts with $2,075,791 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Kitten’s Joy was 2-1-0 in four starts with wins at 8½ and nine furlongs.
At the age of three, Kitten’s Joy was 6-2-0 in eight starts with wins in the Tropical Park Derby (G3), Palm Beach Stakes (G3), Crown Royal American Turf Stakes (G3), Virginia Derby (G3), Secretariat Stakes (G1) and the 12 furlong Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (G1).
As a four year old, Kitten’s Joy was 1-1-0 in two starts with a win in the Firecracker Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) and a second-place finish in the Arlington Million Stakes (G1).
Roaring Lion has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score but his Behavior Index makes him competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
Rounding out the field are Mildenberger (6-1), Midnight Wilde (60-1) and Petrus (20-1).
The Royal Lodge is the first of two races hosted by the United Kingdom Jockey Club with the second race, the Road to the Kentucky Derby Conditions Sakes, to be ran on March 1, 2018 at Kempton Park.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.
In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).


EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 10, Aidan O’Brien
2. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4, Aidan O’Brien
3. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2, Brendan Duke
4. Kew Gardens (IRE), 1, Aidan O’Brien


2017/2018 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Ranking, total points, Trainer
1. The Tabulator, 10, Larry Rivelli
2. Hollywood Star, 4, Dale Romans
3. Ten City, 2, Ken McPeek
4. Ebben, 1, Steve Margolis

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Juddmonte Beresford Stakes Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Sunday the European road to the 2017-2018 Kentucky Derby takes us across the pond to Naas Racecourse in County Kildare, Ireland, where Saxon Warrior has been tabbed as the 9-5 Twinspires.com morning line favorite in the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes (Group 2).
Post time is noon EDT. An original field of 10 had been pre-entered in the Beresford but with the expected soft to heavy going only five horses will enter the starting gate.
Saxon Warrior comes into this race off of a win in his maiden debut for trainer Aidan O’Brien. Here’s the video and chart call:

Held up in rear, still towards rear and plenty to do 2 furlongs out, soon taken to outer and pushed along, strong run to lead 100 yards out, soon clear, comfortably.

Saxon Warrior showed a good burst of speed in the final strides to easily win by 3¼ lengths.
Deep Impact, the sire of Saxon Warrior, was a talented Thoroughbred selected twice as Horse of the Year in Japan at the age of three and four. During his racing career, he compiled a 12-1-0 record in 14 starts with $12,825,285 in earnings including numerous graded stakes victories and Japan’s prestigious Thoroughbred Triple Crown.
At stud, Deep Impact is the current leading stallion in Japan, an honor he’s held since 2012. He’s sired numerous graded stakes winners including the champions Deep Brilliante, Kizuna, and Makahiki, winners of the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby); Santono Diamond, winner of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) and Dee Majesty and Al Ain winners of the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2,000 Guineas).
Like most of the horses in this race, Saxon Warrior has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to run a good race.
Rounding out the field are Delano Roosevelt (3-1), Kew Gardens (7-2), Riyazan (5-1) and Warm the Voice (7-1).


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.

In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).

Friday, September 15, 2017

Iroquois Stakes Racing Roundup

©2017 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The much anticipated journey on the 2017-2018 Road to the Kentucky Derby begins Saturday at Churchill Downs with the 36th running of the $150,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3). In addition to the Japan road to the Derby, Churchill Downs has also added a European road to Derby glory.
Post time for the Iroquois is 5:20 p.m. ET., and Hollywood Star, a Thoroughbred Daily News Rising Star, has been tabbed as the 5-2 morning line favorite.
Owned by Albaugh Family Stables, LLC and trained by Dale Romans, Hollywood Star comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in two starts including a second-place finish in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on August 13. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

HOLLYWOOD STAR off a step slow albeit without incident, chased two to three wide from near the rear, began to advance into the turn and came under coaxing three furlongs from home, spun just off the inside into upper stretch, rallied with good energy to chase the winner home proving no match for that one on this day while along clear for the place honors second best.

Hollywood Star looked good earning his second-place finish in graded stakes competition and I look for him to improve as the races get longer.
 Malibu Moon, the sire of Hollywood Star, made only two starts as a two year old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Gormley, Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford.
With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Hollywood Star was a yearling (Hip 395) I liked in session two at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and if he lives up to his breeding he could be a factor on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Undefeated in two starts, The Tabulator (6-1) comes into this race for trainer Larry Rivelli off of a 2¼ length win in the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes at Prairie Meadows on July 28. Here’s the video and chart call:

THE TABULATOR forwardly placed while four wide early, moved closer on the turn, responded when given his cue nearing the furlong marker and was gradually going away at the finish.

The Tabulator showed good speed chasing blistering fractions before taking the lead in the stretch. If he can carry that speed to a route of ground, then he could be a factor in this race.
In his only start as a two year old, The Tabulator’s sire, Dialed In, won a 6½-furlong maiden special weight by a half a length at Churchill Downs in November 2010. As a three year old, Dialed In won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes, finished second in a 9-furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Gulfstream Park, and won the Florida Derby (G1) by a head over Shackleford en route to an eighth place-finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
On the Derby Trail, Dialed In’s best runner to date is Gunnevera who won the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2), Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3), Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Tangelo Stakes. In addition, Gunnevera finished second in the Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (G2), third in the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) and second in the Travers Stakes (G1).
The Tabulator, like Gunnevera, has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to be competitive.
A long shot I like in this race is Big Gemmy (15-1) who broke his maiden by 3¾ lengths in his second start at Saratoga on August 28. Here’s the video and chart call:

BIG GEMMY broke out at the start bumping GOLDEN SEAL solidly, chased two to three wide just off the pace coming under coaxing seven-sixteenths from home, angled out five wide into upper stretch, rallied to issue a challenge inside the final eighth taking command just outside the eighth pole, edged clear under a drive to the finish.

Big Gemmy recovered from the start, chased fast fractions, and showed good determination to rally for the win.
Gemologist, the sire of Big Gemmy, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-0-0 record in seven starts with $794,855 in career earnings.
Undefeated in his first five starts, Gemologist won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) as a two year old and the Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) at the age of three en route to a 16th place finish in the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1).
A leading first-crop sire in 2016, Gemologist’s best stakes runners to date include Golden Diamond, Mind Reader, Rose to Fame, Xerxes Avenue, Yellow Agate and Theory.
Big Gemmy also has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and I look for him to be competitive.
Flameaway (4-1) is also undefeated in two starts and he comes into this race for trainer Mark Casse off of a victory in the Skidmore Stakes at Saratoga on August 18. Here’s the video and chart call:

FLAMEAWAY bumped lightly with a rival at the start then dropped back, was urged along off the pace, went around most of the turn in the two path, dropped to the rail late on that bend, steadied behind a rival outside the quarter pole, cut the corner into the stretch, was roused while moving to the two path at the three-sixteenths, rallied under a right-handed whip, closed well to make a bid at the sixteenth pole and proved best under good handling.

Flameaway has a D Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® score so I’ll be watching to see how well he handles the stretch out in distance.
Scat Daddy, the sire of Flameaway, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As a two year old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful Stakes (G1).
In his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9 furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish in the Derby.
His best runners on the Derby Trail include Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El Kabeir, Frac Daddy, Azar and Dice Flavor who was my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real Derby (G3).
In the overall Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® ranking, Flameaway has a low score and is ranked fifth but his Behavior Index potentially moves him into the top four and makes him competitive in this race.
Honorable mention goes to Ten City (3-1), who I’m not too keen on for the win but could figure in the bottom exotics.


*****

This is the sixth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 36 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is the addition of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park on December 17.

In addition to the Japan road to the Derby which features the Cattleya Sho Stakes (November 25), Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushan Stakes (December 13) and Hayacinth Stakes (February 2018), Churchill Downs has added a European road to Derby glory consisting of seven races: Juddmonte Beresford (September 24), Juddmonte Royal Lodge (September 30), Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère (October 1), Racing Post Trophy (October 28, Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes (March 1), Patton (March 2) and the Burradon (March 30).