Thursday, December 31, 2015

Jerome Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Empire State, Saturday, where Flexibility will go the starting gate as the even money, morning-line favorite in the 146th running of the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time for the race will be 3:50 p.m. ET.
Flexibility comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record in three starts for trainer Chad Brown. He won his maiden debut in October and followed that with a second-place finish to Mohaymen in both the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of the Remsen:

FLEXIBILITY prompted the pace from the two path, got set down the drive home, came up short after tussling with the top one from upper to mid-stretch, continued onward in a willing manner, after coming out a bit himself in the vicinity of the eighth pole, to garner the place.
Flexibility ran in second-place the entire race and was passed by Mohaymen in the stretch drive. His inability to take the lead was telling and he’ll have to improve on that going forward.
The cut back in distance could benefit Flexibility who’s a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd. And, his B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® also indicates that he should be competitive in this race.
Bluegrass Cat, the sire of Flexibility, was a competitive colt and multiple graded stakes winner on the 2005 and 2006 Kentucky Derby Trail.
As a two year old, Bluegrass Cat compiled a 3-0-0 record in four starts, winning the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). As a three year old, Bluegrass Cat compiled a 2-4-0 record in seven starts, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). He finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1).
Jockey Irad Ortiz retains the mount and I look for them to run a good race.
Vorticity (4-1), comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in three starts for trainer James Lawrence, including a win in the Marylander Stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

VORTICITY showed speed along the rail down the backstretch, failed to keep pace entering the turn, eased out to the two path leaving the turn, gained command outside TALE OF E DUBAI near the eighth pole and held sway under vigorous rousing.

Voticity has yet to run in a route race, but his breeding indicates that he should be able to handle this distance. He’s is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
Distorted Humor, the sire of Vorticity, made his first start in February of his three-year-old racing season and he did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Overall, he compiled an 8-5-3 record in 23 starts and his most notable stakes wins were in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2), Salvator Mile Handicap (G3), Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G3), Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) and the Ack Ack Handicap (G3).
As a stallion, Distorted Humor has sired numerous graded stakes winners, including the classic champions Funny Cide, winner of the 2003 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and Drosselmeyer, winner of the 2010 Belmont Stakes (G1). Distorted Humor also is the grandsire of I’ll Have Another, winner of the 2012 Kentucky Derby (G1).
A sharp work out on December 27 could have Vorticity ready to run a good race and I look for him to be competitive.
A long shot I like in this race is Bird of Trey who’s been tabbed with 10-1 morning line odds. In five starts, he’s always finished in the money and he comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record for trainer John Servis.
In his second start, Bird of Trey broke his maiden, devasting his rivals with a runaway 11-length victory. In his last start, Bird of Trey scored another impressive victory to win the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes by 7¼ lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

BIRD OF TREY prompted the early pace from the inside, was eased back slightly and moved to the outside, easily took the lead entering the stretch and drew off under mild handling.

Bird of Trey has not run in a route race, either, but his breeding indicates he should be competitive at this distance. He’s is a sire-line descendant of the Mr. Prospector Ancestral Herd and he has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
Birdstone, the sire of Bird of Trey, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-0-0 record in nine starts. As a two year old, Birdstone won the 2003 Champagne Stakes (G1), defeating Chapel Royal by 2½ lengths.
As a three year old, Birdstone won the Belmont Stakes (G1), upsetting Smarty Jones in his bid to sweep the Triple Crown, and he won the Travers Stakes (G1).
At stud, Birdstone has sired numerous graded stakes winners and he’s the sire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, Mine That Bird, and Summer Bird, winner of the 2009 Belmont Stakes (G1).
If Bird of Trey moves forward in this race, he should be a tough competitor. A sharp work on December 19 could have him ready to run a career best race.
Another long shot I like is Donegal Moon (15-1) who comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 1-1-1 record in five starts. In his last race, he finished a disappointing fifth in the Remsen Stakes (G2). However, he led for much of that race until faltering at the top of the stretch.
So, the cut back in distance may benefit Donegal Moon and he could, perhaps, be competitive. But, he’ll have to improve his game considerably in order to secure the win.


*****
The Jerome Stakes (G3) is the first qualifying race of the 2016 racing season. Under the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Jerome Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers:

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
4. Mor Spirit, 14, Bob Baffert, $246,800
5. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
6. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080
7. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
8. Mohaymen, 10, Kiaran McLaughlin, $300,000
9. Cocked and Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840
10. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
11. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600
12. Rated R Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200
13. Toews On Ice, 4, Bob Baffert, $228,400
14. Flexibility, 4, Chad Brown, $100,000
15. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
16. Harlan Punch, 2, Tom Amoss, $138,000
17. Hollywood Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,250
18. I’malreadythere, 2, Jerry Hollendorfer, $86,000
19. Mo Tom, 2, Tom Amoss, $68,326
20. Sail Ahoy, 1, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $60,000

Friday, December 18, 2015

Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes Racing Roundup



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The “Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to California, Saturday, where a small field of seven two-year-old Thoroughbreds will go to the starting gate of the $350,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos Race Course.
Formerly known as the CashCall Futurity and Hollywood Futurity, the Los Alamitos Race Course became the beneficiary of the Futurity (G1) when Hollywood Park closed its doors, forever.
The Futurity has traditionally been the last stakes race of the season for young horses on the Kentucky Derby Trail. For Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, whose trainees have won this race a record seven times, it has been a key race on the Kentucky Derby Trail. Here’s a look at Baffert’s previous Futurity winners: Dortmund (2014), Liaison (2011), Lookin at Lucky (2009), Pioneerof the Nile (2008), Point Given (2000), Captain Steve (1999) and Real Quiet (1997).
So, it’s no surprise that Baffert will send the number one, morning-line favorite, Mor Spirit (8-5), and the 9-5 second choice, Toews On Ice, to the starting gate this Saturday.
Mor Spirit comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record in three starts, including a second-place finish to Airoforce in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs on November 28. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

MOR SPIRIT tracked the pace early, shifted into the three path in the far turn while taking over command, was under a long drive in the stretch and gave in under pressure in the final stages.

Mor Spirit took the lead at the top of the stretch while Gun Runner pulled alongside of him. Despite the advantage, Mor Spirit was only able to maintain his position throughout the stretch and was passed in the final yards by Airoforce.
Mor Spirit has a C Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that shows he should be competitive in this race. However, to date, Mor Spirit has yet to show the same “spirit” on the racetrack as that of his sire, Eskendereya, who has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®.
The difference in the grade rating between Mor Spirit and Eskendereya is a good example of how the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® can be a powerful tool showing horse owners when a mare [Im a Dixie Girl] upgrades or downgrades the stallion [Eskendereya] through the profile score, grade rating of the foal [Mor Spirit] from that mating.
Eskendereya, the sire of Mor Spirit, was my 2010 Kentucky Derby favorite until an injury took him off the trail. During his career, Eskendereya compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts which culminated in a 9¾ length romp in the 2010 Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).
Other key stakes wins include a runaway win by 8½ lengths in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and an impressive 7¼ length victory Pilgrim Stakes.
Hall of Fame Jockey Gary Stevens returns to the irons and a sharp work out on December 15 could have Mor Spirit ready to run a good race.
Toews On Ice comes into this race with a 3-0-2 record in five starts and he’s yet to run in a route race. In his first two starts, Toews On Ice finished a respectable third in both races. He finally broke his maiden in his third race on September 20 here are at Los Alamitos in the Barrett’s Juvenile Stakes. He followed that win with victories in the Speakeasy Stakes at Santa Anita Park and the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) at Del Mar. Here’s the video and chart call of his win in the Bob Hope:  

TOEWS ON ICE had good early speed and dueled inside, took a short lead on the backstretch, responded when headed into the stretch, fought back along the rail under urging to regain the advantage a sixteenth out and inched away late.

Toews On Ice has a low Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. But his Behavior Index indicates that he has the potential to be tough competitor in this race.
Archarcharch, the sire of Toews On Ice, ran in two races as a two year old finishing second in his maiden debut at Churchill Downs and winning the six furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes at the Fair Grounds by 1¾ lengths.
As a three year old racing at Oaklawn Park, Archarcharch won both the Southwest Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G1). He finished third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and he was fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He finished 15th in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
A mild long shot I like in this race is Hollywood Don (6-1). He comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in five starts for trainer Peter Miller whose lone win in this race was with Comma to the Top in 2010.
In his last two races, Hollywood Don has struggled finishing third in the FrontRunner Stakes (G1) and ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G1). His best race to date is his win in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. Here’s a look at the video and chart call of that race:

HOLLYWOOD DON chased a bit off the rail then outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch, took the lead alongside the runner-up in mid-stretch and inched clear late under some urging.

The fractional splits in this race were fast and Hollywood Don’s finish time of 1:35.46 is what I like to see in a young colt on the Derby Trail.
Tapit, the sire of Hollywood Don, was undefeated in two starts as a two year old, including a win in the 8½ furlong Laurel Futurity (G3). As a three year old, Tapit finished sixth in the Florida Derby (G1) and rebounded to win the Wood Memorial (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
With a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, Hollywood Don has the breeding to be competitive in this race, especially if he turns to his previous form in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf.
High profile jockey Victor Espinoza gets the mount and I look for the pair to run a good race.
A long shot I like in this race is Urlacher (10-1). He comes into this race with a 0-3-1 record in four starts for trainer Eoin Harty. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

URLACHER stalked outside a rival, bid between foes on the backstretch and alongside the pacesetter on the second turn, took the lead a quarter mile out, inched clear into the stretch, drifted out despite right handed urging in the final furlong and just held.

Urlacher won but was disqualified and placed second for interference in the final strides of the race.
Discreet Cat, the sire of Urlacher, was a late bloomer winning his only start as a 2-year-old in a 6-furlong sprint at Saratoga Racecourse. At the age of three, Discreet Cat was a speedy colt whose best distance was at a mile but was able to stretch out and win the 8½-furlong UAE Derby.
Urlacher has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®, but he will need to improve his game significantly if he is going to secure the win.


*****
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility the winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity Stakes (G2) will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.


2015/2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Nyquist, 30, Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Exaggerator, 16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
3. Brody’s Cause, 14, Dale Romans, $500,000
4. Swipe, 12, Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
5. Airoforce, 10, Mark Casse, $444,080
6. Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
7. Mohaymen, 10, Kiaran McLaughlin, $300,000
8. Cocked and Loaded, 10. Larry Rivelli, $280,840
9. Riker, 10, Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
10. Sunny Ridge, 8, Jason Servis, $355,600
11. R Rated Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200
12. Flexibility, 4, Chad Brown, $100,000
13. Mor Spirit, 4, Bob Baffert, $36,800
14. Kasseopia (GB), 4, Charlie Fellowes, 22,809
15. Harlan Punch, 2, Tom Amoss, $138,000
16. Hollywood Don, 2, Peter Miller, $96,000
17. Mo Tom, 2, Tom Amoss, $68,326
18. Sail Ahoy, 1, Claude “Shug” McGaughey, $60,000
19. Portfolio Manager, 2, Chad Brown, $50,000
20. Tizarunner, 2, Mark Casse, $44,948

Sunday, December 13, 2015

An Alternative To Lasix: The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

(It is an honor and pleasure to announce that this blog marks my blogging debut with the Horse Racing Nation)

A recent Op/Ed for the Thoroughbred Daily News by turf writer Bill Finley is a good illustration of how the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® can be an important analytical tool, and alternative, for owners who struggle with the decision to the give the legal drug Lasix to their Thoroughbred racehorses.
In the Op/Ed, Finley shows the decision making that eventually led Dr. Russell Cohen, a veterinarian with the NYRA tracks and an advocate of “hay, oats and water,” to give Lasix to his homebred racehorse, Effinex.

(To continue reading this blog, please go here.)