High Level Jeff ships in from Calder Casino & Race Course and makes his first start for trainer Doug O’Neill today as the 2-1 morning line favorite of the $100,000 Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) at Hollywood Park.
Undefeated in two starts, High Level Jeff heads a field of six 2-year-olds and has already shown an affinity for the track with a sharp 6-furlong work out on November 15.
High Level Jeff is a descendant of the Bold Ruler sire line and since 1990 there have been three horses that have won the Prevue Stakes: Jack O’Lantern (2008), Declan’s Moon (2004) and Corba King (1995).
Speedy Premier Pegasus (5-2) is also undefeated in two starts and most likely will go to the lead making High Level Jeff and the other horses work to earn the victory.
Premier Pegasus, the only stakes winner in the race, comes into today’s race off of a 1 ¾ - length victory in the Jack Goodman Stakes at Oaktree at Hollywood on October 23. The time for the 6-furlong sprint was 1:09.62 and he should be able to easily handle the stretch out to 7-furlongs.
Premier Pegasus has a nice pedigree with Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Fusaichi Pegaus as his sire and Preakness (G1) winner Summer Squall as the damsire.
Premier Pegasus is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been two horses from that line to win the Prevue: Belgravia (2006) and Stuka (1992).
Another Bold Ruler descendant and a long shot I like is Northern Indy (12-1) who, in his second start, broke his maiden in an 8-furlong route race by an impressive five lengths at Golden Gate Fields October 28 – his first race on the turf was off the board. The time for the mile was a mediocre 1:39 but jockey Russell Baze had a snug hold on Northern Indy who took the lead at the half and was not pressured the rest of the way to the finish.
Jockey Mike Smith picks up the mount on Northern Indy and at 12-1 odds or better, I’m will to give him a chance.
Industry Leader (5-2) is another horse to keep an eye on and if he looks good in the post parade, you may want to use him in some wagers.
Industry leader comes into to the race off a 2 ¼ - length maiden win but, with Cherokee Run as his sire and Seeking The Gold as the damsire, he has the breeding to easily get the distance. With the success in recent years of The Pamplemousse and Musket Man, I especially like to keep an eye on Cherokee Run descendents when they stretch out to longer distances.
Industry Leader is a descendant of the Nasrullah sire line and since 1990 there have been five horses from that line to win the Prevue: Massive Drama (2007), Proud Tower (2000), Grey Memo (1999), In Excessive Bull (1996) and Olympio.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes Roundup
Selected as the 3-1 morning line favorite, Blue Laser heads a field of 10 thoroughbreds entered in Saturday’s eighth running of the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3) for 2-year-olds at Delta Downs.
Blue Laser, the only graded-stakes winner in the field, comes into the race with a half-length victory in the Grey Stakes (G3) at Woodbine on October 10 and looks like the horse to beat. He and is trained by Mark Casse who tied for the win in the 2007 Jackpot when his horse Turf War dead-heated with Z Humor.
I like Blue Laser’s pedigree. His sire, Bluegrass Cat, won the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Nashua Stakes (G3) as a 2-year-old and, as a 3-year-old, finished second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1). Blue Laser’s damsire is the 1989 Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval.
Blue Laser is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and four horses from that line have won in the last seven editions of the Delta Downs Jackpot: Turf War, Birdbirdistheword (2006), Mr. Jester (2003) and Outa Here (2002).
A couple of long shots I like are Classic Legacy (6-1) and Bug Juice (8-1).
In his last race, the Grey Stakes (G3), Classic Legacy made a nice run from dead last at the half, sweeping six-wide past the field of nine-horses, to lead a the top of the stretch. However, despite the nice run, Classic Legacy could not keep the lead and finished third to Blue Laser – beaten by only three-quarters of a length.
Since then, Classic Legacy has been moved to the barn of trainer Bob Baffert and adds blinkers for the Jackpot. Jockey Joe Talamo gets the mount on Classic Legacy and I look for the pair to be closer to the pace.
Classic Legacy’s sire Macho Uno has 10 juvenile winners in 18 starters for 56 percent.
The Jackpot will be a big test for Bug Juice who has never run in a route race and steps up into graded stakes competition for the first-time. Bug Juice was very impressive in winning the Aspirant Stakes and New York Breeders’ Futurity, both at 6-furlongs, and it remains to be seen just how far he wants to run.
But, Bug Juice has the breeding to get the distance of the Jackpot. His sire, Mingun, was a graded stakes champion at a mile to 10-furlongs and his damsire, Twilight Agenda, won several 9-furlong graded stakes races.
A recent bullet work out over the Delta Downs track indicates that Bug Juice should be ready to run a good race.
In four starts, Sweet Ducky (4-1) has only been off the board once and comes into the Jackpot with three wins including a first-place finish in the Garden State Stakes and Seton Hall University Stakes – both were run at a mile at Monmouth Park.
A recent bullet work out November 13 at Delta Downs and Sweet Ducky should be ready to run a good race.
Classic Legacy is a descendant of the Holy Bull sire line, Bug Juice and Sweet Ducky are descendants of the Bold Ruler sire line and no runners from either of those lines have won during the short history of the Delta Downs Jackpot.
Blue Laser, the only graded-stakes winner in the field, comes into the race with a half-length victory in the Grey Stakes (G3) at Woodbine on October 10 and looks like the horse to beat. He and is trained by Mark Casse who tied for the win in the 2007 Jackpot when his horse Turf War dead-heated with Z Humor.
I like Blue Laser’s pedigree. His sire, Bluegrass Cat, won the Remsen Stakes (G2) and Nashua Stakes (G3) as a 2-year-old and, as a 3-year-old, finished second in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1). Blue Laser’s damsire is the 1989 Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval.
Blue Laser is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and four horses from that line have won in the last seven editions of the Delta Downs Jackpot: Turf War, Birdbirdistheword (2006), Mr. Jester (2003) and Outa Here (2002).
A couple of long shots I like are Classic Legacy (6-1) and Bug Juice (8-1).
In his last race, the Grey Stakes (G3), Classic Legacy made a nice run from dead last at the half, sweeping six-wide past the field of nine-horses, to lead a the top of the stretch. However, despite the nice run, Classic Legacy could not keep the lead and finished third to Blue Laser – beaten by only three-quarters of a length.
Since then, Classic Legacy has been moved to the barn of trainer Bob Baffert and adds blinkers for the Jackpot. Jockey Joe Talamo gets the mount on Classic Legacy and I look for the pair to be closer to the pace.
Classic Legacy’s sire Macho Uno has 10 juvenile winners in 18 starters for 56 percent.
The Jackpot will be a big test for Bug Juice who has never run in a route race and steps up into graded stakes competition for the first-time. Bug Juice was very impressive in winning the Aspirant Stakes and New York Breeders’ Futurity, both at 6-furlongs, and it remains to be seen just how far he wants to run.
But, Bug Juice has the breeding to get the distance of the Jackpot. His sire, Mingun, was a graded stakes champion at a mile to 10-furlongs and his damsire, Twilight Agenda, won several 9-furlong graded stakes races.
A recent bullet work out over the Delta Downs track indicates that Bug Juice should be ready to run a good race.
In four starts, Sweet Ducky (4-1) has only been off the board once and comes into the Jackpot with three wins including a first-place finish in the Garden State Stakes and Seton Hall University Stakes – both were run at a mile at Monmouth Park.
A recent bullet work out November 13 at Delta Downs and Sweet Ducky should be ready to run a good race.
Classic Legacy is a descendant of the Holy Bull sire line, Bug Juice and Sweet Ducky are descendants of the Bold Ruler sire line and no runners from either of those lines have won during the short history of the Delta Downs Jackpot.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Breeders' Cup Pedigree Plays
A Look at the Breeders’ Cup Through Sire Lines
Next to the Triple Crown, the Breeders’ Cup offers horseracing fans and handicappers an exciting venue of racing with many opportunities to view some good racing and make money in the process. However, with fourteen competitive races and well more than a hundred horses entered in the two-day event (November 5-6 at Churchill Downs), handicapping the Breeders’ Cup can be a challenge.In addition to studying the past performances, I like to study the sire lines of each divisional winner. Knowing the sire line that has produced the most winners is an important tool in the handicapper’s arsenal, and I have found that to be valuable in spotting potential handicapping angles as well as keeping up with historical trends.
In order to put the Breeders’ Cup races into perspective, an overview of American horseracing is necessary. A vast majority of thoroughbred champions in the last half of the twentieth century trace back to the sire line of Darley Arabian through his descendants Whalebone, Stockwell, Phalaris, Native Dancer, and Nearco.
Modern-day horseracing as we know it would not exist if it was not for Phalaris and his three sons—Sickle, Pharos, and Pharamond II. Born in 1913, Phalaris was a champion sprinter in 1917 and 1918, with a career record of 24: 16-2-1. However, Phalaris’ greatest contribution to horseracing was as a sire, and he was selected by Timeform as the sire of the twentieth century.
The greatest impact Phalaris and his sire line have had on horseracing has been by his great-great grandson Native Dancer and grandson Nearco.
Native Dancer, an outstanding champion—with a record of 22: 21-1-0—was sired by Polynesian out of the line of Sickle, and that line produced Mr. Prospector, which is one of the leading sire lines in the industry today.
Nearco, a champion racehorse who was undefeated in fourteen starts, was sired by Pharos, and the line of Nearco has given us most of our modern-day thoroughbred champions. Nearco’s greatest contribution comes from his two sons—Nasrullah and Royal Charger—and his two grandsons: Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler.
There are five sire lines descended from Phalaris that have had a major impact on the Breeders’ Cup races. Those sire lines are: Mr. Prospector, who is a descendent of the Native Dancer line. Nasrullah, Royal Charger, Northern Dancer, and Bold Ruler, who are descendents of the Nearco sire line.
Since 1984, a total of 208 Breeders’ Cup races have been run, and 174 (86 percent) of them have been won by horses out of the sire line of Phalaris and his descendants. Of those 208 Breeders’ Cup races, 127 (61 percent) of them have been won by horses out of the sire line of Phalaris’ grandson Nearco and his descendants, which breaks down as follows: 64 winners are out of the line of Nearco’s grandson Northern Dancer; 43 winners are out of the line of his son Nasrullah (with 19 of those out of the line of Nasrullah’s son Bold Ruler); 15 winners are out of the line of Nearco’s son Royal Charger (with 10 of those winners out of the sire line of Royal Charger’s grandson Hail To Reason); 5 winners are out of the line of Nearco’s son Nearctic.
The Mr. Prospector line has produced a total of 43 Breeders’ Cup winners. Of those 43 winners, 10 (23 percent) are from the line of his son Fappiano, and 8 (19 percent) are from the line of his son Gone West.
In all of the divisional races, the Northern Dancer sire line has the most winners in five divisions: Mile (15), Turf (10), Filly & Mare Turf (9), Ladies’ Classic (7), and Juvenile Fillies (7).
The Mr. Prospector sire line has the most winners in the Sprint (8), Juvenile (7), and Classic (6) divisions.
MILE
The Northern Dancer line has dominated the Mile with 15 winners (58 percent):Horse, Sire
Goldikova (2009 and 2008), Anabaa
Artie Schiller (2005), El Prado
Val Royal (2001), Royal Academy
War Chant (2000), Danzig
Spinning World (1997), Nureyev
Barathea (1994), Sadler’s Wells
Lure (1993 and 1992), Danzig
Opening Verse (1991), The Minstrel
Royal Academy (1990), Nijinsky
Miesque (1988 and 1987), Nureyev
Last Tycoon (1986), Try My Best
Royal Heroine (1984), Lypheor
The Mr. Prospector line has produced five winners:
Horse, Sire
Kip Deville (2007), Kipling
Miesque’s Approval (2006), Miesque’s Son
Six Perfections (2003), Celtic Swing
Da Hoss (1998 and 1996), Gone West
TURF
The Northern Dancer line leads the Turf division with a total of 10 winners:
Horse, Sire
Red Rocks (2006), Galileo
High Chaparral (2003 and 2002), Sadler’s Wells
Chief Bearhart (1997), Chief’s Crown
Pilsudski (1996), Polish Precedent
Northern Spur (1995), Sadler’s Wells
Fraise (1992), Strawberry Road
In The Wings (1990), Sadler’s Wells
Theatrical (1987), Nureyev
Manila (1986), Lyphard
The Nasrullah line produced nine winners:
Horse, Sire
Conduit (2009 and 2008), Dalakhani
Better Talk Now (2004), Talkin Man
Fantastic Light (2001), Rahy
Kalanisi (2000), Doyoun
Daylami (1999), Doyoun
Tikkanen (1994), Cozzene
Kotashaan (1993), Darshaan
Lashkari (1984), Mill Reef
FILLY & MARE TURF
The Filly & Mare Turf was inaugurated in 1999, and in the past eleven years, the Northern Dancer sire line has produced nine winners:
Horse, Sire
Midday (2009), Oasis Dream
Forever Together (2008), Belong To Me
Lahudood (2007), Singspiel
Ouija Board (2006 and 2004), Cape Cross
Intercontinental (2005), Danehill
Islington (2003), Sadler’s Wells
Starine (2002), Mendocino
Banks Hill (2001), Danehill
The Royal Charger line produced the two remaining winners:
Horse, Sire
Perfect Sting (2000), Red Ransom
Soaring Softly (1999), Kris S.
LADIES’ CLASSIC
The sire line of Northern Dancer has produced the most winners with a total of seven:
Horse, Sire
Life Is Sweet (2009), Storm Cat
Ginger Punch (2007), Awesome Again
Round Pond (2006), Awesome Again
Adoration (2003), Honor Grades
Escena (1998), Strawberry Road
Ajina (1997), Strawberry Road
Dance Smartly (1991), Danzig
The sire line of Mr. Prospector has produced five winners:
Horse, Sire
Zenyatta (2008), Street Cry
Pleasant Home (2005), Seeking The Gold
Azeri (2002), Jade Hunter
Unbridled Elaine (2001), Unbridled’s Song
Spain (2000), Thunder Gulch
The Bold Ruler line has also produced five winners:
Horse, Sire
Beautiful Pleasure (1999), Maudlin
Bayakoa (1990 and 1989), Consultant’s Bid
Sacahuista (1987), Raja Baba
Lady’s Secret (1986), Secretariat
JUVENILE FILLIES
The Northern Dancer sire line has the most winners with a total of seven:
Horse, Sire
Sweet Catomine (2004), Storm Cat
Storm Flag Flying (2002), Storm Cat
Silverbulletday (1998), Silver Deputy
Countess Diana (1997), Deerhound
Storm Song (1996), Summer Squall
Go For Wand (1989), Deputy Minister
Open Mind (1988), Deputy Minister
The Nasrullah line produced four winners:
Horse, Sire
Indian Blessing (2007), Indian Charlie
Dreaming Of Anna (2006), Rahy
Eliza (1992), Mt. Livermore
Brave Raj (1986), Rajab
The Mr. Prospector line produced three winners:
Horse, Sire
Halfbridled (2003), Unbridled
Cash Run (1999), Seeking The Gold
Flanders (1994), Seeking The Gold
SPRINT
The Mr. Prospector line leads the Sprint division with a total of eight winners:
Horse, Sire
Midnight Lute (2008 and 2007), Real Quiet
Speightstown (2004), Gone West
Cajun Beat (2003), Grand Slam
Squirtle Squirt (2001), Marquetry
Artax (1999), Marquetry
Gulch (1988), Mr. Prospector
Eillo (1984), Mr. Prospector
The Northern Dancer line produced six winners:
Horse, Sire
Dancing In Silks (2009), Black Minnaloushe
Reraise (1998), Danzatore
Lit de Justice (1996), El Gran Senor
Desert Stormer (1995), Storm Cat
Sheikh Albadou (1991), Green Desert
Dancing Spree (1989), Nijinsky
JUVENILE
The Mr. Prospector sire line leads the Juvenile division with a total of seven winners:
Horse, Sire
Midshipman (2008), Unbridled’s Song
Street Sense (2006), Street Cry
Anees (1999), Unbridled
Unbridled’s Song (1995), Unbridled
Timber Country (1994), Woodman
Rhythm (1989), Mr. Prospector
Tasso (1985), Fappiano
The Bold Ruler line produced five winners:
Horse, Sire
Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Stephen Got Even
Vindication (2002), Seattle Slew
Boston Harbor (1996), Capote
Is It True (1988), Raja Baba
Capote (1986), Seattle Slew
The Northern Dancer line has produced four winners:
Horse, Sire
Vale Of York (2009), Invincible Spirit
Wilko (2004), Awesome Again
Johannesburg (2001), Hennessy
Chief’s Crown (1984), Danzig
The Royal Charger line has also produced three winners:
Horse, Sire
Action This Day (2003), Kris S.
Answer Lively (1998), Lively One
Brocco (1993), Kris S.
CLASSIC
The sire line of Mr. Prospector has produced six winners:
Horse, Sire
Zenyatta (2009), Street Cry
Raven’s Pass (2008), Elusive Quality
Curlin (2007), Smart Strike
Volponi (2002), Cryptoclearance
Black Tie Affair (1991), Miswaki
Unbridled (1990), Fappiano
The sire line of Northern Dancer has produced five winners:
Horse, Sire
Ghostzapper (2004), Awesome Again
Cat Thief (1999), Storm Cat
Awesome Again (1998), Deputy Minister
Cigar (1995), Palace Music
Ferdinand (1987), Nijinsky
In 2007, the Breeders’ Cup committee added the Filly & Mare Sprint, Juvenile Turf, and Dirt Mile to the roster of Breeders’ Cup races. In 2008, the Marathon, Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Turf Sprint were also added to the roster for a total of fourteen races.
Descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line have won seven of those races. Bold Ruler descendants have won three races. Northern Dancer and Nasrullah descendants have won one race each.
NORTHERN DANCER
Fifty-six winners of Breeders’ Cup races have been produced by the sire line of Northern Dancer’s descendants Danzig, Sadler’s Wells, Storm Cat, Deputy Minister, Nijinsky, and Nureyev.
Of all the descendents of Northern Dancer, the sire line of his son Danzig (sire of War Chant, Lure, Dance Smartly, and Chief’s Crown) has produced the most Breeders’ Cup winners with a total of 19:
Ladies’ Classic – Adoration (2004), Dance Smartly (1991)
Juvenile – Vale Of York (2009), Chief’s Crown (1984)
Juvenile Fillies – Countess Diana (1997)
Turf – Chief Bearhart (1997), Pilsudski (1996)
Filly & Mare Turf – Midday (2009), Forever Together (2008), Ouija Board (2006 and 2004), Intercontinental (2005), Banks Hill (2001)
Sprint – Sheikh Albadou (1991)
Mile – Goldikova (2009 and 2008), War Chant (2000), Lure (1993 and 1992)
The Sadler’s Wells sire line produced nine winners—six were sired by Sadler’s Wells:
Turf – High Chaparral (2003 and 2002), Northern Spur (1995), In The Wings (1990)
Fillies & Mare Turf – Islington (2003)
Mile – Barathea (1994)
Sadler’s Wells’ son Galileo sired 2006 Turf winner Red Rocks, and another son, El Prado, sired 2005 Mile winner Artie Schiller. Sadler’s Wells’ grandson Singspiel sired 2007 Fillies & Mare Turf winner Lahudood.
The Storm Cat sire line produced eight winners—five were sired by Storm Cat:
Classic – Cat Thief (1999)
Ladies’ Classic – Life Is Sweet (2009)
Juvenile Fillies – Sweet Catomine (2004) and Storm Flag Flying (2002)
Sprint – Desert Stormer (1995)
Storm Cat’s son Giant’s Causeway sired 2009 Marathon winner Man Of Iron; another son, Black Minnaloushe, sired 2009 Sprint winner Dancing In Silks; and still another son, Hennessy, sired 2001 Juvenile winner Johannesburg.
The Deputy Minister sire line produced eight winners. His son Awesome Again sired four winners:
Classic – Ghostzapper (2004)
Ladies’ Classic – Ginger Punch (2007), Round Pond (2006)
Juvenile – Wilko (2004)
Deputy Minister sired three winners:
Classic – Awesome Again (1998)
Juvenile Fillies – Go For Wand (1989) and Open Mind (1988)
Deputy Minister’s son Silver Deputy sired 1998 Juvenile Fillies winner Silverbulletday.
The Nijinsky sire line produced seven winners. Nijinsky sired three winners:
Classic – Ferdinand (1987)
Sprint – Dancing Spree (1989)
Mile – Royal Academy (1990)
His grandson Strawberry Road sired three winners:
Ladies’ Classic – Escena (1998), Ajina (1997)
Turf – Fraise (1992)
His son Royal Academy sired 2001 Mile winner Val Royal.
The Nureyev sire line produced five winners—four were sired by Nureyev:
Mile – Spinning World (1997), Miesque (1987 and 1988)
Turf – Theatrical (1987)
His grandson Mendocino sired the 2002 Filly & Mare Turf winner Starine.
MR. PROSPECTOR
Eighteen winners of Breeders’ Cup races have been produced by the sire line of Mr. Prospector’s sons Fappiano and Gone West.
The sire line of Mr. Prospector’s son Fappiano produced 10 winners:
Classic – Volponi (2002) and Unbridled (1990)
Ladies’ Classic – Unbridled Elaine (2001)
Juvenile – Midshipman (2008), Anees (1999), Unbridled’s Song (1995), and Tasso (1985)
Juvenile Fillies – Halfbridled (2003)
Sprint – Midnight Lute (2008 and 2007)
Fappiano sired Tasso and Unbridled, who sired Anees, Unbridled’s Song, and Halfbridled.
The sire line of Mr. Prospector’s son Gone West produced 8 winners:
Classic – Raven’s Pass (2008)
Turf – Johar (2003)
Sprint – Speightstown (2004), Cajun Beat (2003)
Mile – Da Hoss (1998 and 1996)
Filly & Mare Sprint – Maryfield (2007)
Juvenile Turf – Nownownow (2007)
Gone West sired Speightstown, Johar, and Da Hoss.
NASRULLAH
Excluding Nasrullah’s son Bold Ruler, 17 winners of Breeders’ Cup races have been produced by the sire line of Nasrullah’s descendants Blushing Groom and Never Bend.
The sire line of his grandson Blushing Groom produced 10 winners:
Juvenile Turf – Pounced (2009)
Classic – Invasor (2006)
Juvenile – War Pass (2007), Arazi (1991)
Juvenile Fillies – Dreaming Of Anna (2006), Eliza (1992)
Turf – Fantastic Light (2001)
Sprint – Orientate (2002), Cherokee Run (1994)
Mile – Silic (1999)
Blushing Groom’s son Rahy sired three winners (Pounced, Dreaming Of Anna, and Fantastic Light). Blushing Groom’s Son Mt. Livermore sired two winners (Eliza and Orientate).
The sire line of Nasrullah’s son Never Bend produced seven winners:
Turf – Conduit (2009 and 2008), Kalanisi (2000), Daylami (1999), Kotashaan (1993), and Lashkari (1984)
Sprint – Safely Kept (1990)
BOLD RULER
The sire line of his great-grandson Seattle Slew produced 12 winners:
Classic – A. P. Indy (1992)
Juvenile – Stevie Wonderboy (2005), Vindication (2002), Boston Harbor (1996), Capote (1986)
Juvenile Fillies – Stardom Bound (2008), Tempera (2001)
Sprint – Silver Train (2005), Thirty Slews (1992)
Juvenile Fillies Turf – Tapitsfly (2009)
Turf Sprint – California Flag (2009)
Dirt Mile – Corinthian (2007)
Seattle Slew sired A. P. Indy, Vindication, and Capote.
ROYAL CHARGER
The sire line of his grandson Hail To Reason produced 10 winners:
Classic – St. Liam (2005), Sunday Silence (1989)
Ladies’ Classic – Ashado (2004)
Juvenile – Answer Lively (1998)
Filly & Mare Turf – Perfect Sting (2000)
Hail To Reason’s grandson Kris S. sired five winners:
Ladies’ Classic – Hollywood Wildcat (1993)
Juvenile – Action This Day (2003), Brocco (1993)
Turf – Prized (1989)
Filly & Mare Turf – Soaring Softly (1999)
Three sire lines of Breeders’ Cup winners that are not descended from Northern Dancer or Mr. Prospector include: Ribot, Man o’ War, and Damascus.
The Ribot sire line has produced eight winners:
Classic – Pleasantly Perfect (2003), Proud Truth (1985)
Ladies’ Classic – Jewel Princess (1996)
Juvenile Fillies – Pleasant Stage (1991)
Turf – Miss Alleged (1991)
Sprint – Kona Gold (2000), Very Subtle (1987)
Dirt Mile – Albertus Maximus (2008)
The Man o’ War sire line has produced seven winners:
Classic – Tiznow (2001 and 2000), Skywalker (1986)
Ladies’ Classic – One Dreamer (1994)
Juvenile Fillies – Folklore (2005), Caressing (2000)
Sprint – Smile (1986)
The Damascus sire line has produced six winners:
Classic – Skip Away (1997)
Ladies’ Classic – Inside Information (1995), Personal Ensign (1988)
Juvenile – Gilded Time (1992), Fly So Free (1990)
Sprint – Thor’s Echo (2006)
Some interesting statistics of note:
Despite the fact that the sire line of Mr. Prospector has dominated the American Classics (see the May/June 2010 issue of The HorsePlayer Magazine), Nearco’s grandson Northern Dancer has dominated the Breeders’ Cup with 64 winners—especially in the Mile (15) and Turf (10) divisions.
While compiling these statistics, the biggest surprise was that of all the descendents of Northern Dancer, the Danzig sire line has been the most productive with a total of 19 winners.
The Filly & Mare Turf division was inaugurated in 1999, and in the past eleven years, 6 of those winners have been produced by the sire line of Danzig.
The Fappiano line has been the most productive Mr. Prospector sire line with 10 winners.
The sire line of Nearco’s great-grandsons Hail To Reason and Blushing Groom have also produced 10 winners each.
The sire line of Nasrullah, including Bold Ruler, has produced 43 Breeders’ Cup winners, which equals the number of winners sired by Mr. Prospector’s sire line. Twelve of the 19 Bold Ruler sire line winners are descendants of his great-grandson Seattle Slew.
Half of the Deputy Minister sire-line winners were sired by his son Awesome Again.
Sixty-seven percent of the Sadler’s Wells sire line winners were sired by Sadler’s Wells.
Here’s a look at the horses I like in the different divisions:
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 5
Division, Horse, Sire, Sire Line
Marathon (G3), A.U. Miner, Mineshaft, Bold Ruler
Juvenile Fillies Turf, Winter Memories, El Prado, Northern Dancer
Filly and Mare Sprint (G1), Rightly So, Read The Footnotes, Mr. Prospector
Juvenile Fillies (G1), Tell A Kelly, Tapit, Bold Ruler
Filly and Mare Turf (G1), Hibaayeb, Singspiel, Northern Dancer
Ladies’ Classic (G1), Life At Ten, Malibu Moon, Bold Ruler
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 6
Division, Horse, Sire, Sire Line
Juvenile Turf (G2), Air Support, Smart Strike, Mr. Prospector
Sprint (G1), Smiling Tiger, Hold That Tiger, Northern Dancer
Turf Sprint (G2), Quick Enough, High Brite, Royal Charger
Juvenile (G1), Uncle Mo, Indian Charlie, Nasrullah
Mile (G1), Goldikova, Anabaa, Northern Dancer
Dirt Mile (G1), Tizway, Tiznow, Man O’ War
Turf (G1), Workforce, King's Best, Mr. Prospector
Classic (G1), Zenyatta, Street Cry, Mr. Prospector
As you can see the Breeders’ Cup has a rich history with a wide variety of exciting races for fans and handicappers alike.
Good luck with your picks!
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Iroquois Stakes Racing Roundup
Churchill Downs opens its fall meet of racing today with an 11-race card billed as the “Stars of Tomorrow” which is devoted exclusively to 2-year-old thoroughbreds. Maybesomaybenot, the 5-2 lukewarm morning line favorite, heads a field of eight juveniles that have been entered in the $100,000 Iroquois Stakes (G3).
I’ve always like this son of Sunday Break who got off to a good start early in his career, breaking his maiden by six lengths in his second start at Churchill Downs last July. Maybesomaybenot came back 22 days after that victory to win the Sanford Stakes (G2) at Saratoga. However, his last two efforts have been dull with a fourth-place finish in the Sapling Stakes (G3) at Monmouth Park and an eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Despite his recent efforts, I’m willing to give Maybesomaybenot another shot. He has the breeding to be a factor in the Iroquois and trainer Michael Maker adds blinkers for today’s race.
Maybesomaybenot is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been six horses from that line to win the Iroquois Stakes: Capt. Candyman Can (2008), Court Vision (2007), The Cliff’s Edge (2003), Ide (1995), Peruvian (1994) and Portroe (1991).
Maybesomaybenot’s sire, Sunday Break, won races from 7-furlongs to 8 ½-furlongs and was a pretty good middle-distance runner. His grandsire, Forty Niner, also was a good middle-distance runner and he sired the Iroquois winner Ide. Sunday Break’s 2-year-old runners have six wins from 18 starts for 33 percent.
Astrology is the 3-1 morning line second-choice but I would not be surprised to see him become the favorite. Astrology comes into the race with a third-place finish to a couple of nice juveniles (Sweet Ducky and Curlinello) in the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth.
Astrology is a descendant of the Bold Ruler sire line and since 1990 there have been three horses from that line to win the Iroquois: Thiskyhasnolimit (2009), Champali (2002) and Tarzan’s Blade (1993). A. P. Indy, the sire of Astrology, has two juvenile winners from 17 starts for 12 percent.
A long shot I like in this race is the 10-1 Halo’s Thunder, ridden by Jockey Julien Leparoux – winner of the Iroquois in 2008 and 2007. Trained by Ken McPeek, Halo’s Thunder is stepping up in class but has a lot of room for improvement coming into today’s race off an 8-furlong maiden debut win at Turfway Park earlier this month.
Halo’s Thunder is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and his sire is the Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. Gulch, the grandsire of Halo’s Thunder, sired the Iroquois winners Court Vision and The Cliff’s Edge. Thunder Gulch’s juvenile runners have 14 wins from 36 starts for 39 percent.
The damsire of Halo’s Thunder is the graded-stakes winner Saint Ballado whose notable offspring include 2005 Horse of the Year Saint Liam, Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Ashado and Florida Derby (G1) winner Captain Bodgit who finished second in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Storm In The Lake (4-1) comes into the Iroquois with three first-place finishes and one second-place finish in five starts. Storm In The Lake has never run in a route race and he finished off the board in his only stakes race but he has the breeding to be a potential factor in the Iroquois.
Storm In The Lake is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and sine 1990 there have been five horses from that line to win the Iroquois: Catcominatcha (2005), Straight Line (2004), Harlan’s Holiday (2001), Exploit (1998) and Keene Dancer (1997).
Storm In The Lake’s grandsire, Storm Cat, sired the Iroquois winner Exploit and he is also the grandsire of the Iroquois winners Harlan’s Holiday and Catcominatcha.
I’ve always like this son of Sunday Break who got off to a good start early in his career, breaking his maiden by six lengths in his second start at Churchill Downs last July. Maybesomaybenot came back 22 days after that victory to win the Sanford Stakes (G2) at Saratoga. However, his last two efforts have been dull with a fourth-place finish in the Sapling Stakes (G3) at Monmouth Park and an eighth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.
Despite his recent efforts, I’m willing to give Maybesomaybenot another shot. He has the breeding to be a factor in the Iroquois and trainer Michael Maker adds blinkers for today’s race.
Maybesomaybenot is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been six horses from that line to win the Iroquois Stakes: Capt. Candyman Can (2008), Court Vision (2007), The Cliff’s Edge (2003), Ide (1995), Peruvian (1994) and Portroe (1991).
Maybesomaybenot’s sire, Sunday Break, won races from 7-furlongs to 8 ½-furlongs and was a pretty good middle-distance runner. His grandsire, Forty Niner, also was a good middle-distance runner and he sired the Iroquois winner Ide. Sunday Break’s 2-year-old runners have six wins from 18 starts for 33 percent.
Astrology is the 3-1 morning line second-choice but I would not be surprised to see him become the favorite. Astrology comes into the race with a third-place finish to a couple of nice juveniles (Sweet Ducky and Curlinello) in the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth.
Astrology is a descendant of the Bold Ruler sire line and since 1990 there have been three horses from that line to win the Iroquois: Thiskyhasnolimit (2009), Champali (2002) and Tarzan’s Blade (1993). A. P. Indy, the sire of Astrology, has two juvenile winners from 17 starts for 12 percent.
A long shot I like in this race is the 10-1 Halo’s Thunder, ridden by Jockey Julien Leparoux – winner of the Iroquois in 2008 and 2007. Trained by Ken McPeek, Halo’s Thunder is stepping up in class but has a lot of room for improvement coming into today’s race off an 8-furlong maiden debut win at Turfway Park earlier this month.
Halo’s Thunder is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and his sire is the Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. Gulch, the grandsire of Halo’s Thunder, sired the Iroquois winners Court Vision and The Cliff’s Edge. Thunder Gulch’s juvenile runners have 14 wins from 36 starts for 39 percent.
The damsire of Halo’s Thunder is the graded-stakes winner Saint Ballado whose notable offspring include 2005 Horse of the Year Saint Liam, Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Ashado and Florida Derby (G1) winner Captain Bodgit who finished second in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and third in the Preakness Stakes (G1).
Storm In The Lake (4-1) comes into the Iroquois with three first-place finishes and one second-place finish in five starts. Storm In The Lake has never run in a route race and he finished off the board in his only stakes race but he has the breeding to be a potential factor in the Iroquois.
Storm In The Lake is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and sine 1990 there have been five horses from that line to win the Iroquois: Catcominatcha (2005), Straight Line (2004), Harlan’s Holiday (2001), Exploit (1998) and Keene Dancer (1997).
Storm In The Lake’s grandsire, Storm Cat, sired the Iroquois winner Exploit and he is also the grandsire of the Iroquois winners Harlan’s Holiday and Catcominatcha.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Visual Handicapping The Physical And Emotional Conformation Of The Horse
The following article about visual handicapping was published in the September/October issue of The HorsePlayer Magazine. Look for my article on the key sire lines that have had an impact on the Breeders’ Cup races in the November/December issue of The HorsePlayer Magazine.
VISUAL Handicapping
Using the Physical and Emotional Conformation of the Horse to Complement Your Handicapping Strategies
By Kerry M. Thomas and Calvin L. Carter
Editor’s Note: HorsePlayer Magazine publisher Tom Quigley has long been a proponent of paddock inspection when selecting horses. For the last two years, he has been “Tweeting” his live paddock reports from the three major Southern California racetracks to his 700 + Twitter followers at Quigleys Corner on Twitter.com. If you can’t be at the racetrack, Quigley’s Tweets are a great source of information on which horses look good or bad before going out onto the track.
If you play other circuits, however, this kind of up-to-the-minute observation is lacking. If you want to be a complete handicapper – and get an edge over your competition – you’ll need to do your own visual handicapping.
Visual handicapping is one of the last great frontiers in the handicapping game, and if you can become good at it, you’ll have a differential advantage over players who are just using numbers to suss out a horse’s current form.
In this article, conformation expert Kerry M. Thomas and frequent HorsePlayer contributor Calvin L. Carter help explain what you should be looking for when watching a horse in the paddock and/or post parade.
Pedigree and past performances are two of the most important tools handicappers have in their wagering arsenal – they can show if a horse has the potential to be a rising star and a stakes winner. But sometimes a horse does not live up to its breeding and performs poorly on the racetrack – and, of course, past performances are of no use when handicapping first-time starters.
A visual inspection of a horse in the paddock and post parade can be very revealing and give the handicapper a clue as to how well it will perform on the racetrack. How a horse looks physically and how it behaves can reveal if a horse is physically fit and emotionally prepared to compete in a race.
PHYSICAL TRAITS
When visually inspecting a horse it is important to remember to have a checklist of things to look for. The physical things are somewhat obvious:
What does the horse’s overall physical appearance look like? A healthy horse will appear to be alert and aware of everything in its surroundings. Its ears will be pricked forward and its coat will appear dappled. An unhealthy horse will have a dull appearance and be lethargic. It will be less aware of its surroundings and its focus will be turned more inward.
Is the horse sweating or is it washed out? Sweating is a natural way to cool off but if the horse appears lathered on the neck and/or between the rear legs, it could be sign that the horse is overly nervous or that it is not in top physical condition.
Is the horse wearing leg bandages? Some trainers wrap the front and rear legs in bandages for protection, but bandages can be a sign that the horse has some fitness issues or is in pain – and that could greatly hamper its performance.
Is the horse wearing normal or special horseshoes? Bar shoes could indicate that the horse has tender feet or is experiencing hoof problems. Toe grabs on the horse shoe could mean that the horse does not have good footing or, in a matter of speaking, spins out on the racing surface. The toe grabs (which are illegal in some states) are for extra traction.
What kind of tack is the horse wearing? Some horses are loaded down with gear that may or may not improve its performance. A good example of this is Rachel Alexandra whose two losses after claiming the 2009 Horse of the Year honors came when she was fitted with a figure-eight nose band. Less gear is better.
Is the horse wearing a shadow roll, blinkers, or ear muffs? Anytime a horse wears this gear it is a good indicator that horse has some focus and concentration issues. That equipment change may or may not improve the horse’s performance.
EMOTIONAL TRAITS
The behavior and Emotional Conformation of a horse is just as important as the physical conformation, and it can have a tremendous impact on a horse’s performance. Behavioral issues can also be obvious, but most of the time, they are more subtle and require a closer inspection.
How does the horse behave in the paddock? How the horse reacts to noise, large crowds of people, and other horses is vitally important. It is a good indicator of that horse’s mental soundness and how it will perform on the racetrack.
A confident, mentally sound horse will be focused and almost casual in appearance. Its ears may be pricked forward. An unfocused horse that lacks confidence may be ill-mannered and agitated in the paddock. It may appear to be anxious, and its ears may be pricked backward or rapidly moving about as if expecting something.
Does the horse show any signs of nervousness? A certain amount of nervousness is okay. Some great horses had what the late, world-renowned breeder and trainer Federico Tesio referred to as “nervous energy.” But if the horse continuously acts up and lathers up, that is a sign of an unfocused horse that is not mentally prepared to run in a race.
Some nervousness and rambunctious behavior can be expected from the colts, but nervousness in fillies and mares can be a sign of an unfocused horse that lacks confidence. Of course, there are some exceptions. Zenyatta is a notable example of a mare that possesses nervous energy.
Does the horse show any signs of herding mentality? By nature, horses are herding animals, and that dynamic can be present in the paddock as well as on the racetrack. If a horse appears to be overly aggressive, but not anxious, that behavior can indicate that the horse is trying to assert its authority over other horses in the paddock. If a horse appears to be timid or unsure, that behavior indicates the horse most likely would be content to follow the lead of the other horses.
Is the horse aware of everything in its surroundings or is its focus of attention solely fixated on one horse? A horse that demonstrates this type of aggressive, targeting behavior has a very narrow range of focus, and it will actually target and “buddy-up” with another during a race.
How does the horse behave when it is saddled and prepped for the race? A confident, focused horse will freely accept its tack and bridle while an unconfident horse will resist and struggle with its handler. A horse has to feel comfortable in order to perform at its best. The equipment it wears can become a source of discomfort, resulting in behavioral overcompensations, which is when a horse alters its natural running style due to a physical or an emotionally perceived restriction.
How does the horse behave when led by the groom? The groom should be able to lead the horse with a loose hold on the lead line while the horse comfortably follows a few feet behind the groom. If the groom has to have a tight grip on the lead line and take aggressive action to control the horse, that is a sign that the horse is not focused to the task at hand, and it is an indicator as to how the horse will perform on the racetrack.
If the groom has to continually reassure the horse by contact or if the horse bunches up next to the groom while being led, that is a sign that the horse has some herding mentality issues and is also an indicator of how that horse will run on the racetrack – in the middle of the herd where it has a feeling of safety and security.
How does the horse behave in the post parade or at the starting gate? Anytime a horse acts up, especially at the starting gate, it can be a sign of an immature, unfocused horse; an ill-tempered, hard-to-handle horse that has space issues; or a horse with deep-seated emotional issues that can only be evaluated after much study. A horse that demonstrates this type of behavior is a classic example of a horse with low focus ability.
However, the opposite can be true as horses from the Hasting sire line which include Man O’War, War Admiral and Hard Tack were hard to handle and well known for their pre-race antics. The great War Admiral delayed the start of all three 1937 Triple Crown races.
Does the horse have a lot of ear movement? One of the key indicators that show a great aptitude for mental fitness and a high level of focus agility is the ability of the horse to constantly, but not anxiously, move its ears back-and-forth and side-to-side while moving about in the paddock, post parade, and even during a race. The ability of a horse to interpret stimulus in smooth transitions during a race is a sign of a high level of focus agility and a key to maintaining pace.
HERD DYNAMICS
Visual handicapping is truly a study of herd dynamics at the racetrack. The horse that is the most focused and mentally sound is usually the winner of the race. Knowing what to visually look for in the physical and emotional conformation of the horse can reveal what is not readily apparent from the pedigree and past performances and reward the handicapper with a nice payday.
_______________________________
KERRY M. THOMAS is the founder of the Thomas Herding Technique and a researcher who studies the psychology and Emotional Conformation of horses. For more information about Emotional Conformation and Thomas’ research, you can visit his website at http://www.thomasherdingtechnique.com/
CALVIN L. CARTER writes about juvenile thoroughbreds on his blog at http://classicchampionthoroughbreds.blogspot.com/.
VISUAL Handicapping
Using the Physical and Emotional Conformation of the Horse to Complement Your Handicapping Strategies
By Kerry M. Thomas and Calvin L. Carter
Editor’s Note: HorsePlayer Magazine publisher Tom Quigley has long been a proponent of paddock inspection when selecting horses. For the last two years, he has been “Tweeting” his live paddock reports from the three major Southern California racetracks to his 700 + Twitter followers at Quigleys Corner on Twitter.com. If you can’t be at the racetrack, Quigley’s Tweets are a great source of information on which horses look good or bad before going out onto the track.
If you play other circuits, however, this kind of up-to-the-minute observation is lacking. If you want to be a complete handicapper – and get an edge over your competition – you’ll need to do your own visual handicapping.
Visual handicapping is one of the last great frontiers in the handicapping game, and if you can become good at it, you’ll have a differential advantage over players who are just using numbers to suss out a horse’s current form.
In this article, conformation expert Kerry M. Thomas and frequent HorsePlayer contributor Calvin L. Carter help explain what you should be looking for when watching a horse in the paddock and/or post parade.
Pedigree and past performances are two of the most important tools handicappers have in their wagering arsenal – they can show if a horse has the potential to be a rising star and a stakes winner. But sometimes a horse does not live up to its breeding and performs poorly on the racetrack – and, of course, past performances are of no use when handicapping first-time starters.
A visual inspection of a horse in the paddock and post parade can be very revealing and give the handicapper a clue as to how well it will perform on the racetrack. How a horse looks physically and how it behaves can reveal if a horse is physically fit and emotionally prepared to compete in a race.
PHYSICAL TRAITS
When visually inspecting a horse it is important to remember to have a checklist of things to look for. The physical things are somewhat obvious:
What does the horse’s overall physical appearance look like? A healthy horse will appear to be alert and aware of everything in its surroundings. Its ears will be pricked forward and its coat will appear dappled. An unhealthy horse will have a dull appearance and be lethargic. It will be less aware of its surroundings and its focus will be turned more inward.
Is the horse sweating or is it washed out? Sweating is a natural way to cool off but if the horse appears lathered on the neck and/or between the rear legs, it could be sign that the horse is overly nervous or that it is not in top physical condition.
Is the horse wearing leg bandages? Some trainers wrap the front and rear legs in bandages for protection, but bandages can be a sign that the horse has some fitness issues or is in pain – and that could greatly hamper its performance.
Is the horse wearing normal or special horseshoes? Bar shoes could indicate that the horse has tender feet or is experiencing hoof problems. Toe grabs on the horse shoe could mean that the horse does not have good footing or, in a matter of speaking, spins out on the racing surface. The toe grabs (which are illegal in some states) are for extra traction.
What kind of tack is the horse wearing? Some horses are loaded down with gear that may or may not improve its performance. A good example of this is Rachel Alexandra whose two losses after claiming the 2009 Horse of the Year honors came when she was fitted with a figure-eight nose band. Less gear is better.
Is the horse wearing a shadow roll, blinkers, or ear muffs? Anytime a horse wears this gear it is a good indicator that horse has some focus and concentration issues. That equipment change may or may not improve the horse’s performance.
EMOTIONAL TRAITS
The behavior and Emotional Conformation of a horse is just as important as the physical conformation, and it can have a tremendous impact on a horse’s performance. Behavioral issues can also be obvious, but most of the time, they are more subtle and require a closer inspection.
How does the horse behave in the paddock? How the horse reacts to noise, large crowds of people, and other horses is vitally important. It is a good indicator of that horse’s mental soundness and how it will perform on the racetrack.
A confident, mentally sound horse will be focused and almost casual in appearance. Its ears may be pricked forward. An unfocused horse that lacks confidence may be ill-mannered and agitated in the paddock. It may appear to be anxious, and its ears may be pricked backward or rapidly moving about as if expecting something.
Does the horse show any signs of nervousness? A certain amount of nervousness is okay. Some great horses had what the late, world-renowned breeder and trainer Federico Tesio referred to as “nervous energy.” But if the horse continuously acts up and lathers up, that is a sign of an unfocused horse that is not mentally prepared to run in a race.
Some nervousness and rambunctious behavior can be expected from the colts, but nervousness in fillies and mares can be a sign of an unfocused horse that lacks confidence. Of course, there are some exceptions. Zenyatta is a notable example of a mare that possesses nervous energy.
Does the horse show any signs of herding mentality? By nature, horses are herding animals, and that dynamic can be present in the paddock as well as on the racetrack. If a horse appears to be overly aggressive, but not anxious, that behavior can indicate that the horse is trying to assert its authority over other horses in the paddock. If a horse appears to be timid or unsure, that behavior indicates the horse most likely would be content to follow the lead of the other horses.
Is the horse aware of everything in its surroundings or is its focus of attention solely fixated on one horse? A horse that demonstrates this type of aggressive, targeting behavior has a very narrow range of focus, and it will actually target and “buddy-up” with another during a race.
How does the horse behave when it is saddled and prepped for the race? A confident, focused horse will freely accept its tack and bridle while an unconfident horse will resist and struggle with its handler. A horse has to feel comfortable in order to perform at its best. The equipment it wears can become a source of discomfort, resulting in behavioral overcompensations, which is when a horse alters its natural running style due to a physical or an emotionally perceived restriction.
How does the horse behave when led by the groom? The groom should be able to lead the horse with a loose hold on the lead line while the horse comfortably follows a few feet behind the groom. If the groom has to have a tight grip on the lead line and take aggressive action to control the horse, that is a sign that the horse is not focused to the task at hand, and it is an indicator as to how the horse will perform on the racetrack.
If the groom has to continually reassure the horse by contact or if the horse bunches up next to the groom while being led, that is a sign that the horse has some herding mentality issues and is also an indicator of how that horse will run on the racetrack – in the middle of the herd where it has a feeling of safety and security.
How does the horse behave in the post parade or at the starting gate? Anytime a horse acts up, especially at the starting gate, it can be a sign of an immature, unfocused horse; an ill-tempered, hard-to-handle horse that has space issues; or a horse with deep-seated emotional issues that can only be evaluated after much study. A horse that demonstrates this type of behavior is a classic example of a horse with low focus ability.
However, the opposite can be true as horses from the Hasting sire line which include Man O’War, War Admiral and Hard Tack were hard to handle and well known for their pre-race antics. The great War Admiral delayed the start of all three 1937 Triple Crown races.
Does the horse have a lot of ear movement? One of the key indicators that show a great aptitude for mental fitness and a high level of focus agility is the ability of the horse to constantly, but not anxiously, move its ears back-and-forth and side-to-side while moving about in the paddock, post parade, and even during a race. The ability of a horse to interpret stimulus in smooth transitions during a race is a sign of a high level of focus agility and a key to maintaining pace.
HERD DYNAMICS
Visual handicapping is truly a study of herd dynamics at the racetrack. The horse that is the most focused and mentally sound is usually the winner of the race. Knowing what to visually look for in the physical and emotional conformation of the horse can reveal what is not readily apparent from the pedigree and past performances and reward the handicapper with a nice payday.
_______________________________
KERRY M. THOMAS is the founder of the Thomas Herding Technique and a researcher who studies the psychology and Emotional Conformation of horses. For more information about Emotional Conformation and Thomas’ research, you can visit his website at http://www.thomasherdingtechnique.com/
CALVIN L. CARTER writes about juvenile thoroughbreds on his blog at http://classicchampionthoroughbreds.blogspot.com/.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Bourbon Stakes Racing Roundup
A full field of 12 juvenile thoroughbreds will contest the 20th running of the $100,000 Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland Sunday with the winner earning a berth in the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G2) to be run at Churchill Downs on November 6.
Stormy Rush and the also eligible entry of Banned are the lukewarm 4-1 morning line co-favorites.
I like Stormy Rush who ships in from Woodbine for trainer Roger Attfield. In his last outing, Stormy Rush closed from fifth place at the top of the stretch to finish third in the Summer Stakes (G3) at Woodbine.
Stormy Rush is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and since 1990 there have been seven horses from that line to win the Bourbon: Bittel Road (2008), Gio Ponti (2007), Gateman (1999), Pineaff (1998), Red Shadow (1995), Star of Manila (1993) and The Real Vaslav (1992).
Stormy Rush’s sire, Stormy Atlantic, sired the Bourbon winner Bittel Road. Stormy Atlantic’s juvenile runners have 16 wins in 43 starts for 37 percent.
I like the pedigree of long shot Voodoo Storm (8-1) and he’s my favorite in the Bourbon. Voodoo Storm comes into the race off of a gate-to-wire maiden win in an 8 ½ - furlong turf race at Saratoga.
Voodoo Storm is also a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line. His sire, Storm Cat, is the grandsire of Bourbon winners Bittel Road and Gio Ponti. Voodoo Storm's damsire, Kingmambo, sired the Bourbon winners Rey de Café (2004) and Overview (2000).
Another long shot I like is Cozy Kitten (9-2) who comes into the race with a win in his maiden debut – an 8-furlong turf race at Monmouth Park on September 4. Cozy Kitten is stepping way up in class but if he lives up to his breeding, I believe he has the potential to pull off the upset at a nice price.
Cozy Kitten is also a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line. His sire is the 2004 Eclipse Champion Male Turf Horse Kitten’s Joy and his damsire, Cozzene, won the same award in 1985. Theatrical, the sire of Cozy Kitten’s second dam Jodie Faster, won the turf award in 1987.
The juvenile runners of Kitten’s Joy have 15 wins in 32 starts for 47 percent.
Rogue Romance (5-1) comes into the Bourbon off of a maiden win in an 8 ½ - furlong turf race at Saratoga. Rogue Romance raced the same day that Voodoo Storm ran and covered the same route of ground a few ticks faster so I look for him to be competitive in the Bourbon.
Rogue Romance is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been four horses from that line that have won the Bourbon: Interactif (2009), Twilight Meteor, Rey de Café and Overview.
Rogue Romance’s sire is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones – his juvenile runners have 6 wins in 36 starts for 17 percent.
Stormy Rush and the also eligible entry of Banned are the lukewarm 4-1 morning line co-favorites.
I like Stormy Rush who ships in from Woodbine for trainer Roger Attfield. In his last outing, Stormy Rush closed from fifth place at the top of the stretch to finish third in the Summer Stakes (G3) at Woodbine.
Stormy Rush is a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line and since 1990 there have been seven horses from that line to win the Bourbon: Bittel Road (2008), Gio Ponti (2007), Gateman (1999), Pineaff (1998), Red Shadow (1995), Star of Manila (1993) and The Real Vaslav (1992).
Stormy Rush’s sire, Stormy Atlantic, sired the Bourbon winner Bittel Road. Stormy Atlantic’s juvenile runners have 16 wins in 43 starts for 37 percent.
I like the pedigree of long shot Voodoo Storm (8-1) and he’s my favorite in the Bourbon. Voodoo Storm comes into the race off of a gate-to-wire maiden win in an 8 ½ - furlong turf race at Saratoga.
Voodoo Storm is also a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line. His sire, Storm Cat, is the grandsire of Bourbon winners Bittel Road and Gio Ponti. Voodoo Storm's damsire, Kingmambo, sired the Bourbon winners Rey de Café (2004) and Overview (2000).
Another long shot I like is Cozy Kitten (9-2) who comes into the race with a win in his maiden debut – an 8-furlong turf race at Monmouth Park on September 4. Cozy Kitten is stepping way up in class but if he lives up to his breeding, I believe he has the potential to pull off the upset at a nice price.
Cozy Kitten is also a descendant of the Northern Dancer sire line. His sire is the 2004 Eclipse Champion Male Turf Horse Kitten’s Joy and his damsire, Cozzene, won the same award in 1985. Theatrical, the sire of Cozy Kitten’s second dam Jodie Faster, won the turf award in 1987.
The juvenile runners of Kitten’s Joy have 15 wins in 32 starts for 47 percent.
Rogue Romance (5-1) comes into the Bourbon off of a maiden win in an 8 ½ - furlong turf race at Saratoga. Rogue Romance raced the same day that Voodoo Storm ran and covered the same route of ground a few ticks faster so I look for him to be competitive in the Bourbon.
Rogue Romance is a descendant of the Mr. Prospector sire line and since 1990 there have been four horses from that line that have won the Bourbon: Interactif (2009), Twilight Meteor, Rey de Café and Overview.
Rogue Romance’s sire is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Smarty Jones – his juvenile runners have 6 wins in 36 starts for 17 percent.
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