Thursday, June 6, 2019

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Outcome of Belmont Stakes


Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd, Pedigree, To Determine Outcome of Belmont Stakes

By Calvin L. Carter and Dallas Carter
©2019 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The classic trail to the third jewel of the Triple Crown takes us this Saturday to Belmont Park in Elmont, New York, where TACITUS has been tagged as the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the 151st running of the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes (G1). Post time is 6:37 ET.
Knowing as much as possible about the Thoroughbred and what it takes to produce a classic champion has been a passion of mine since the early 1990s. My research and study led to the creation of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®  which is an analytical tool that measures the breeding influences in the five-generation pedigree. The profile is breeding, sales and racing analysis tool used to measure the graded stakes and classic potential of young Thoroughbreds.
In addition to the profile, we have also created a Behavior Index which allows us to identify legitimate and false race contenders and thus move some horses up or down in ranking.
Let’s look at the profile grade rankings for the horses in the Belmont Stakes.



As you can see in the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® chart above, seven of the ten horses entered in this race have a grade ranking of A or better making this a very good Belmont field of contenders.
In the second chart, the Behavior Index has been applied to five horses highlighted in red allowing us to move horses up or down in ranking. Regarding handicapping, if you think that any of the top four horses in the first chart are false contenders, then they could be moved down in ranking and horses like Tax and Intrepid Heart, in the second chart, could be moved up into the top four ranking.
Let’s look at the horses I like in this race.


TACITUS has been tabbed the 9-5 morning-line favorite and he comes into this race with a 3-0-1 record in five starts for trainer Bill Mott including fourth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He was placed third due to the disqualification of Maximum Security who crossed the finish line first. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TACITUS steadied while unsettled behind horses first time through the stretch, found a better rhythm through the middle stages, came five wide off the turn, exchanged brushes with GAME WINNER late and finished with good courage.

Tacitus ran well in just his third start of the season to finish only 3¼ lengths shy of victory.
Tapit, the sire of Tacitus, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
Tacitus has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he’s the best-bred horse in this herd of runners. Tacitus has the breeding to win this race and I look for him to take another step forward in the stretch out to 12 furlongs.


WAR OF WILL (2-1) comes into this race with a 4-1-1 record in ten starts including a win in the Preakness Stakes (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

WAR OF WILL broke alertly, was nicely in hand saving ground on the first turn, rated kindly behind the leader down the backstretch, advanced leaving the far turn, had an opening along the inner rail, took command leaving the three sixteenths, edged away under brisk urging and held firm.

War of Will’s win in the Preakness Stakes (G1) was sweet redemption after he was hampered severely by Maximum Security at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby (G1)
War Front, the sire of War of Will, was a graded-stakes winner of the 8½-furlong Princelet Stakes which he won by 8-lengths in a final time of 1:41.79. However, most of War Front’s other races were in sprints where he had a penchant for finishing second. However, he did win the 6-furlong Alfred G. Vanderbilt Breeders’ Cup Handicap (G2) by 2½-lengths.
At stud, War Front sired Soldat, winner of the 2010 With Anticipation Stakes (G2) and second-place finisher in the 8-furlong Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2), and 8½-furlong Pilgrim Stakes (G3). Soldat went on as a three-year-old to win the 9-furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).
He also sired The Factor, a speedy colt who as a two-year-old won the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) and went on as a three-year-old to win the 8½-furlong Rebel Stakes (G2).
War of Will has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and that makes him a legitimate contender.


TAX (15-1) comes into this race with a 2-2-1 record in six starts including a fifteenth-place finish in the win in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

TAX saved ground throughout and was no factor.

Tax is much better than how he ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and I look for him to improve off that race.
Arch, the sire of Tax, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 5-1-0 record in seven starts with $480,969 in career earnings.
Arch made only one start as a two-year-old easily winning a maiden special weight at Keeneland in October 1997. As a three-year-old, Arch won an allowance race at Keeneland in April 1998 and compiled a 4-1-0 record in six starts including wins in the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3).
Arch passed away in 2016 and as a stallion, his best runners include: Instilled Regard, Nyaleti, Arklow, Blame, Grand Arch, Arravale, Hymn Book, Art Trader, Les Arcs, Archarcharch and Pine Island.
Tax has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding to be competitive. I look for him to run good.


INTREPID HEART (10-1) comes into this race with a 2-0-1 record in three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher including a third-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:

INTREPID HEART stumbled at the start then got bumped by FEDERAL CASE who broke inwards, chased just off the inside down the backstretch, came under coaxing at the nine-sixteenths and tipped four wide through the turn, swung five wide into upper stretch, drifted in straightened away and weakened while passing a pair of tiring rivals to secure the show honors.

In just his third career start, and second start of the season, Intrepid Heart finished a respectable third in the step up to Graded Stakes competition against seasoned runners.
Tapit, the sire of Intrepid Hearst, was a multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with $557,300 in career earnings.
As a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the Laurel Futurity (G3).  Tapit was troubled by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the 2004 Kentucky Derby.
At stud, Tapit has sired numerous graded stakes winners including the Belmont Stakes (G1) champions Tapwrit (2017), Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
Intrepid Heart has an A+ Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he has the breeding to be competitive. He’s an improving colt and I look for him to take another step forward in his third start of the season.

Tacitus has the best breeding by far and he should win this race. There’s not much in the profile score that separates the other five horses with an A+ profile. Honorable mention goes to Bourbon War (12-1), Spinoff (15-1) and Sir Winston (12-1).







No comments:

Post a Comment