©2018 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
This
Saturday, from coast-to-coast, the Road to the Kentucky Derby enters the stretch drive with
three marquee races on tap at New York, Kentucky and California. Winners of
those races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in the
Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
At
Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky, GOOD
MAGIC has
been tabbed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the 94th running of
the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Post Time is 6:23 p.m. ET. Live television coverage of the three races
will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network from 5:30-7:30 p.m. ET.
Good
Magic comes into this race for trainer Chad Brown with a 1-2-1 record in four starts including a
second-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1), a win the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Stakes (G1) and a third-place finish in the Xpressbet Fountain of
Youth Stakes (G2). Here’s the video and
chart call of
the Fountain of Youth:
GOOD MAGIC was rated under snug hold racing five wide in early stages,
inched up closer racing three wide past the half mile marker, raced in close
contention running through far turn, could not kick on with top pair entering
the lane, kept on five wide and secured share.
Good Magic finished a respectable third
in his first start of the season, but he’s capable of better. And reports since
the race indicate that Brown may have not had him in top form for his debut as
a three-year-old.
A chestnut colt by Curlin
out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, Good Magic was one of my top picks
(Hip
845) at the 2016 Keeneland September
Yearling Sale. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, Good
Magic has impressive breeding
and room to improve as a three year old on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Good Magic’s
sire, Curlin, was an outstanding racehorse that compiled an 11-2-2 record in 16
career starts with $10,501,800 in career earnings.
Curlin did not start as a two-year-old. But, at the
age of three, Curlin was 6-1-2 in nine starts with $5,102,800 in earnings
including wins in the Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2) en route to a
third-place finish in the 2007 Kentucky Derby (G1). He went on to win the
Preakness Stakes (G1) and he finished second in the Belmont Stakes (G1).
Other important stakes wins include the Breeders'
Cup Classic (G1), Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), twice, Dubai World Cup (G1),
Stephen Foster Handicap (G1), Woodward Stakes (G1), and the UAE Jaguar Trophy
Handicap.
In his first five crops as a
stallion, Curlin has sired the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Palace
Malice and the 2016 Preakness Stakes
(G1) winner Exaggerator.
In addition, Curlin produced the classic-placed runners Ride On
Curlin (second, 2014 Preakness), Keen Ice
(third, 2015 Belmont) and Irish War
Cry (second, 2017 Belmont).
Good Magic has been training well since
his last race and a recent bullet work out could have him ready to make a big
move forward in his second start of the season.
Owned
by Albaugh Family Stables, LLC and trained by Dale Romans, FREE DROP BILLY (5-1) comes into this race with
a 2-3-1 record in seven starts including a win in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
and second-place finishes in the Sanford Stakes (G3), Hopeful Stakes (G1) and
Holy Bull Stakes (G2). In his last start, he finished third in the Gotham
Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call
of that race:
FREE DROP BILLY
broke to the outside, bobbled lightly making some contact with [his] next door
neighbor, picked up interest along with a few others as the half was being
completed, left the backstretch in four path and remained about wide to the
quarter pole, was put to encouragement angling one path farther off the rail
into the stretch, made no headway in the final furlong and had to settle for
the show.
The
cut back to a mile is probably not the best distance for Free Drop Billy who finished
a respectable third in his second start of the season.
Union
Rags, the sire
of Free Drop Billy, was a competitive colt on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky
Derby (G1), compiling an overall 5-1-1 record in eight career starts with
$1,798,800 in earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Union Rags won the Three Chimneys Saratoga Special (G2) and
Champagne (G1) stakes and finished second in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (G1) stakes.
At
the age of three, Union Rags won the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) stakes
and finished third in the Florida Derby (G1) en route to a seventh-place finish
in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He finished his career with a narrow win by a neck
over Paynter in the Belmont (G1) stakes.
Free
Drop Billy was a yearling (Hip 104) we profiled at the 2016
Keeneland September sale. With an A Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile®, Free Drop Billy has good breeding and I look for him to
make a move forward in the stretch out to nine furlongs.
FLAMEAWAY (6-1) comes into this race with
a 5-1-0 record in eight starts for trainer Mark Casse including a win in the
Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and a second-place finish in the Lambholm South Tampa
Bay Derby (G2). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
FLAMEAWAY was bumped
at the start and steadied, raced three wide early, stalked three wide, rallied
three wide in upper stretch, surged late and got up for place honors.
Flameaway
tracked the leaders in third and rallied late to lose by a length to Quip, who
is also entered in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2).
Scat
Daddy, the sire
of Flameaway, was a multiple graded stakes winner who compiled a 5-1-1 record
in nine starts with $1,334,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Scat Daddy was 3-0-1 in five starts with wins in the Sanford
Stakes (G2) and Champagne Stakes (G1), and he finished second in the Hopeful
Stakes (G1).
In
his season debut as a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy finished third in the one mile
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and followed up with wins in the 9 furlong Fountain of
Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) in route to a eighteenth-place finish
in the Derby.
In
addition to Flameaway, Scat Daddy’s best runners on the Derby Trail include Mendelssohn,
Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, El
Kabeir, Frac
Daddy, Azar and Dice
Flavor who was
my long shot pick to win the 2013 El Camino Real
Derby (G3).
Flameaway
has a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®. His Behavior Index makes him
competitive and I look for him to run a good race.
QUIP (6-1) would have been one of my
picks but he will be scratched and run in the Arkansas Derby
(G1) on April 14.
So,
it appears that the connections of the also eligible, DETERMINANT (20-1), will run him in this
race and he’s a potential long shot to keep an eye on. He comes into this race
for trainer Mark Casse with a 1-0-0 record in three starts on the turf
including a maiden win last out. Here’s the video
and chart call
of that race:
DETERMINANT broke in at the start then bumped slightly racing five wide
entering first turn, settled along outside in early stages then advanced when
prompted three furlongs out, dueled four deep at the quarter pole then battled
three wide into the stretch, came in path then drifted out when urged left handed,
cleared on top in final sixteenth and held firm.
Determinant raced toward the back of the
herd then made a good move to close the gap and take the lead, breaking his
maiden by 1¾ lengths in the stretch out to nine furlongs.
Tapit, the sire of Determinant, was a
multiple graded stakes winner that compiled a 3-0-0 record in six starts with
$557,300 in career earnings.
As
a two-year-old, Tapit was undefeated in two starts including a win in the
Laurel Futurity (G3). Tapit was troubled
by a lung infection for much of his three-year-old season but he did win the
nine-furlong Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to a ninth-place finish in the
2004 Kentucky Derby.
At
stud, Tapit has been America’s leading sire for the past three years and he’s
the sire of the Belmont Stakes (G1) winners Tonalist and Creator.
Determinant has an A Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile® and with a recent maiden win he could be getting good at
the right time of year. I’m not too keen on him for the win, however, he has
the breeding to be competitive and could, perhaps, be a factor in the exotics if
he lives up to his breeding.
*****
2018
KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
Audible, 110, Todd Pletcher, $803,520
2.
Noble Indy, 110, Todd Pletcher, $640,000
3.
Mendelssohn, 100, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
4. Bolt d’Oro, 64, Mick Ruis, $780,000
5. Enticed, 63, Kiaran McLaughlin,
$360,880
6.
Bravazo, 54, D. Wayne Lukas, $349,913
7.
Promises Fulfilled, 52, Dale Romans, $256,480
8.
Magnum Moon, 50, Todd Pletcher $$540,000
9.
Runaway Ghost, 50, $520,310
10.
Quip, 50, Rodolphe Brisset, $212,000
11.
Lone Sailor, 42, Tom Amoss, $273,347
12.
f-Rayya, 40, Doug Watson, $600,000
13.
Hofburg, 40, Bill Mott, $192,000
14.
+Good
Magic, 34, Chad Brown, $1,200,000
15. +Solomini, 34, Bob
Baffert, $616,000
16. My Boy Jack, 32, Keith Desormeaux,
$502,000
17.
Flameaway, 30, Mark Casse, $472,260
18. Firenze Fire, 29, Jason Servis,
$582,500
19. +Free
Drop Billy, 24, Dale Romans, $497,200
European Road Qualifier
20. Gronkowski, 50, Jeremy Noseda,
$79,496
+
= Horses we picked as yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland
September Yearling Sale. Good Magic = Eclipse Champion Two Year Old Male. McKinzie is
off the Derby trail with and injury.
EUROPEAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking, total points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1.
*GRONKOWSKI, 50, Jeremy Noseda, $79,496
2. *MENDELSSOHN, 20, Aidan O’Brien, $1,947,299
3. Saxon Warrior (JPN), 20, Aidan
O’Brien, $245,017
4.
Roaring Lion (USA), 14, John Gosden, $136,807
5.
Iconic Sunset (GB), 12, James Tate, $30,139
6. f-Happily (IRE), 10, Aidan
O’Brien, $543,648
7. *THREEANDFOURPENCE, 8, Aiden O’Brien, $54,076
8. Court House (IRE), 8, John
Gosden, $0
9. Dark Acclaim, 6, Marco Botti,
$21,854
10. *SEAHENGE, 4, Aiden O’Brien, $145,630
11. Olmedo (FR), 4, Jean-Claude
Rouget, $113,505
12. Nelson (IRE), 4, Aidan
O’Brien, $99,826
13. Delano Roosevelt (IRE), 4,
Aidan O’Brien, $38,074
14. Fortune’s Pearl (IRE), 4,
Andrew Balding, $1,800
15. Purser, 3, John Gosden,
$19,215
16. Masar (IRE), 2, Aidan
O’Brien, $101,264
17. The Pentagon (IRE), 2, Aidan
O’Brien, $71.981
18. Mildenberger (ENG), 2, Mark
Johnston, $64,634
20. Warm the Voice (IRE), 2,
Brendan Duke, $12,904
*Mendelssohn,
Gronkowski,
Threeandfourpence
and Seahenge
are only horses nominated for Triple Crown. Here’s the video
of Mendelssohn’s win in the Patton Stakes. Here’s the video
of Gronkowski’s win in the Conditions Stakes.
JAPAN ROAD LEADERBOARD
Ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Sumahama (JPN), 30, Ryo
Takahashi, $291,287
2. *RUGGERO
(JPN), 16, Yuichi Shikato, $220,861
3. Taiki Ferveur, 12, Mitsunori
Makiura, $299,689
4. Le Vent Se Leve (JPN), 10,
Kiyoshi Hagiwara, $463,935
5. Don Fortis (JPN), 4, Mitsunori
Makiura, $436,916
6.
Mic Ben Hur (JPN), 4, Yoshihiro Hatakeyama, $122,696
7.
Great Time (JPN), 3, Hideaki Fujiwara, $186,586
8.
Haseno Pyro (JPN), 2, Kenki Sato, $263,981
9.
Meiner Yukitsubaki (JPN) 2, Noboru Takagi, $151,796
10.
Dark Repulser (JPN), 1, Takashi Kanari, $200,920
11.
Bronze Kay (JPN), 1, Koichi Tsunoda, $75,979
*Ruggero is the only horse nominated for
Triple Crown. Here’s the video
of his last race, Hyacinth Stakes.
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