©2016 Calvin L.
Carter. All rights reserved.
The
“Road to the Kentucky Derby” takes us to the Empire State,
Saturday, where Flexibility will
go the starting gate as the 7-5, morning-line favorite in the 136th
running of the $250,000 Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. Post time
for the race will be 1:50 p.m. ET.
Flexibility
comes into this race with a 2-2-0 record in four starts for trainer Chad Brown.
As a two year old, Flexibility finished second in both the Nashua Stakes (G2)
and Remsen Stakes (G2). He finally won earned graded stakes honors earlier this
month with a 4¼-length victory in the Jerome Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
FLEXIBILITY managed to escape
being impacted by the stumbling rival to its left, glided into the two path,
got rated keeping watch on a three-way pace dispute, tipped out when ready
after stepping foot onto the far turn and issued a four wide challenge past the
five-sixteenths pole, took over in short order, responded when given his cue.
lengthening away from upper to mid-stretch, came out a bit in the last few
jumps with the outcome no longer in doubt.
Flexibility
showed his class in this race as he took control in the stretch and was the
easy winner. He’s a sire-line descendant of the Northern Dancer Ancestral Herd,
and, with a B Classic Champion Thoroughbred
Profile®, he’s
been competitive on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Bluegrass Cat, the sire of Flexibility, was a competitive colt
and multiple graded stakes winner on the 2005 and 2006 Derby Trail.
As
a two year old, Bluegrass Cat compiled a 3-0-0 record in four starts, winning
the Nashua Stakes (G2) and Remsen Stakes (G2). As a three year old, Bluegrass
Cat compiled a 2-4-0 record in seven starts, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes
and Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1). He finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby
(G3), Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1).
Jockey
Irad Ortiz retains the mount and I look for them to run a good race.
A
mild long shot I like in this race is Adventist (5-1). There must be some buzz
about this young colt, trained by Leah Gyarmati. He’s the morning-line third
choice and he was heavily favored at 9-5 odds in his maiden debut last
December, which he won by an impressive 11 lengths. Here’s the video and chart call of that race:
ADVENTIST patiently kept watch on
the leader from the two path on the turn, picked up interest and real estate as
the half was being completed, took charge during the run from upper to
mid-stretch, drifted out several paths, fighting off some right hand pressure
all the while, but still drew off.
Adventist
showed good speed in that race and was geared down in the final strides, by
jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Despite the fact that he’s yet to run in a route race, his
Behavior Index and breeding indicate that he could, perhaps, step up in class
and be competitive.
Any Given
Saturday, the sire of Adventist, was a competitive sprinter
and middle-distance horse on the 2006-2007 Kentucky Derby Trail. As a two year
old, he won his maiden debut by a narrow nose, sprinting 5½-furlongs at Turfway
Park in a time of 1:04.89. He followed that run with three length win in an
8½-furlong allowance at Keeneland Racecourse and he finished the season with a
second-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).
As a three year
old, Any Given Saturday won the Sam F. Davis Stakes, finished second in the
Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to an
eighth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
His other
notable wins as a three year old include the 8½-furlong Dwyer Stakes (G2) and
the 9-furlong Haskell Invitational (G1) and Brooklyn Handicap (G2).
Adventist
drilled a 7-furlong work on January 15 and followed that with a sharp 4-furlong
work on January 25. In addition, he picks up the services of jockey Kendrick
Carmouche who’s the only jock in this race with positive Brisnet figures.
Adventist
has room to improve in his second start as a three year old and if he successfully
makes the jump in class he could be a huge factor in this race.
Vorticity (8-1) comes into this race
with a 2-1-1 record in four starts for trainer James Lawrence, including a win
in the Marylander Stakes and a second-place finish to Flexibility in the Jerome
Stakes (G3). Here’s the video and chart call of the Jerome:
VORTICITY broke on top and
maintained a prominent position, cut over to the inside, had the rider hold
something in reserve while being pressed by a pair of opponents parked out in
paths two and three respectively, got pounced upon by FLEXIBILITY just as his
fellow pace combatants were in the first stages of backing away, surrendered
the front soon afterwards, finished with good courage down the lane to garner
the place.
Voticity
showed good determination to finish second. But, with an A Classic Champion
Thoroughbred Profile®, he’s yet to live up to his breeding.
Distorted Humor, the sire of Vorticity, made his first start in
February of his three-year-old racing season and he did not run in the Kentucky
Derby. Overall, he compiled an 8-5-3 record in 23 starts and his most notable
stakes wins were in the Amsterdam Stakes (G2), Salvator Mile Handicap (G3),
Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G3), Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) and the Ack
Ack Handicap (G3).
As
a stallion, Distorted Humor has sired numerous graded stakes winners, including
the classic champions Funny Cide, winner of the 2003 Kentucky
Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) and Drosselmeyer, winner of the 2010 Belmont
Stakes (G1). Distorted Humor also is the grandsire of I’ll Have Another, winner of the 2012 Kentucky
Derby (G1).
A
bullet work on January 15 could have Vorticity ready to run a good race.
However, he’ll need to improve his game if he’s going to score the win.
King Kranz (8-1) and Sunny Ridge (5-2) should
be early on the pace. I’m not too keen on either of them for the win or place.
However, they could be a factor in the exotics.
*****
Under
the points system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine which horses will
qualify to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate, the winner of the Holy Bull
Stakes (G3) will receive 10 points, the second-place finisher will receive 4
points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and the fourth-place
finisher will receive one point. Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby
qualifiers:
2016 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD
Rank, Horse, Points, Trainer,
Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1. Nyquist, 30,
Doug O’Neill, $1,580,000
2. Exaggerator,
16, Keith Desormeaux, $940,000
3. Brody’s Cause,
14, Dale Romans, $500,000
4. Mor Spirit,
14, Bob Baffert, $246,800
5. Flexibility,
4, Chad Brown, $220,000
6. Swipe, 12,
Keith Desormeaux, $597,130
7. Mo Tom, 21,
Tom Amoss $188,326
8. Airoforce, 10,
Mark Casse, $444,080
9.
Greenpointcrusader, 10, Dominick Schettino, $300,000
10. Mohaymen, 10,
Kiaran McLaughlin, $300,000
11. Cocked and
Loaded, 10, Larry Rivelli, $280,840
12. Discreetness,
10, William “Jinks” Fires, $245,042
13. Riker, 10,
Nicholas Gonzalez, $182,375
14. Collected,
10, Bob Baffert, $80,000
15. Sunny Ridge,
8, Jason Servis, $355,600
16. Rated R
Superstar, 6, Ken McPeek, $80,200
17. Toews On Ice,
4, Bob Baffert, $228,900
18. Vorticity, 4,
James Lawrence II, $100,000
19. Tom’s Ready,
4, Dallas Stewart, $66,670
20. Gordy
Florida, 4, Kenny Smith, $30,000
No comments:
Post a Comment