Wood Memorial Stakes Racing Roundup

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, with three marquee races on tap, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” enters the stretch drive taking us to Kentucky, New York and California where winners of those three races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

At Aqueduct Racecourse in New York, Daredevil has been tabbed as the 9-5 morning line favorite in the 91^st running of the $1 million Twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). Post Time is 5:30 p.m. ET and the race will be broadcast live on the NBC Sports Network from 5:00-7:00 p.m. ET.

Daredevil is a new horse in this herd and he comes into the Wood with a 2-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, including a win in the one mile Champagne Stakes (G1) and a second-place finish in the Swale Stakes (G2). In his only race over a mile, Daredevil finished 11^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G).

Daredevil is a talented young colt. I look for him to be competitive but I’m not too keen on him for the win.

From day one, Tiz Shea D (8-1) has been a sort of buzz horse.

After winning his maiden debut by an impressive four lengths on February 7, the partnership of Adam Watchel, Nils Brous and Gary Barber purchased him privately for an undisclosed amount. (You can read more about that purchase in the February 14, 2015 edition of the Thoroughbred Daily News Regional Report, page 10.)

Here’s the video and chart call of Tiz Shea D’s maiden win:

TIZ SHEA D rallied around rivals on the turn and into stretch, took the lead near furlong grounds and drew clear.

Bet down from the 6-1 morning line odds to 8-5 favoritism, Tiz Shea D did not disappoint the handicappers as he was all business and looked very professional in his debut win.

In his second start, Tiz Shea D was my long shot pick in the Gotham Stakes (G3) where he finished second, 2¾-lengths behind the seasoned El Kabeir (3-1) who is also entered in the Wood Memorial. Tiz Shea D’s second-place finish in that race was pretty good, for such a lightly-raced colt, and it earned him a late nomination to the Kentucky Derby.

Currently 20^th in Derby point standings, Tiz Shea D is a nice-looking bay colt by Tiznow, out of the A.P. Indy mare, Ender’s Sister, and he has the breeding to be competitive. Tiz Shea D has room to improve in his third start of the season and I look for him to run another good race.

To date, El Kabeir has been the dominate horse in this New York herd and he comes into the Wood with a 4-2-1 record in eight starts for trainer John Terranova, including victories in the Kentucky Jockey Cup (G2), Jerome (G3) and Gotham (G3) stakes. With the extra distance and the addition of the speedy Daredevil to this race, El Kabeir could receive his greatest challenge, yet.

However, Terranova is optimistic about his chances.

"All along we've been taking it one race at a time and not getting too far ahead of ourselves, so we're gearing up for an exciting race,” said Terranova in an Aqueduct news story. “We have a lot of confidence in him; he's seasoned, versatile, and all of that bodes well for him. However the race unfolds, we'll be able to adapt."

El Kabeir always brings his game to the racetrack and I look for him to run a good race.

Frosted (5-2), the morning line 5-2 second choice, is the mystery horse in this race. His fourth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) was a disaster and did not reflect the form of his previous races. To date, he’s compiled a 1-4-0 record in six starts for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.

Frosted has one of the best pedigrees in this herd but he’s yet to win a stakes race or fully live up to his breeding. Despite his good breeding, the Wood will be his last chance to earn a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Honorable mention goes to Toasting Master (20-1) who also has a good pedigree but, he has yet to fully live up to that breeding. However, he did round out the superfecta in my blog about the Gotham Stakes (G3) and, perhaps, he could be a factor in this race, too.

*****

The winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) will receive 100 points, second-place finisher will receive 40 points, third-place finisher will get 20 points and fourth-place finisher will get 10 points.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. International Star, 171, Mike Maker, $940,979

2. Mubtaahij (IRE), 100, Mike de Kock, $1,400,000

3. Materiality, 100, Todd Pletcher, $632,028

4. Upstart, 76, Rick Violette Jr., $807,680

5. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

6. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

7. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

8. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

9. Itsaknockout, 60, Todd Pletcher, $288,560

10. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

11. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

12. War Story, 44, Tom Amoss, $195,000

13. Maftool, 40, Saeed bin Suroor, $$630,595

14. Ami’s Flatter, 40, Josie Carroll, $195,200

15. Stanford, 40, Todd Pletcher, $151,400

16. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

17. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

18. Keen Ice, 22, Dale Romans, $136,520

19. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

20. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

20. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

          * Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.

Blue Grass Stakes Racing Roundup

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, with three marquee races on tap, the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” enters the stretch drive taking us to Kentucky, New York and California where winners of those three races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

At Keeneland Racecourse in Kentucky, Carpe Diem been tabbed as the even money morning-line favorite in the 91^st running of the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Post Time is 6 p.m. ET. Television coverage of the race will be broadcast on the NBC Sports Network from 5-7 p.m. ET.

Carpe Diem comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 3-1-0 record in four starts including wins in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) and the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). Both of those races were won by open lengths and his five-length win in the Tampa Bay Derby was especially nice as he did that off of a four-month layoff.

In my 2015 Kentucky Derby Outlook top ten list, Carpe Diem was ranked eighth and he was one of the few two year olds, I thought, who could be competitive on the trail as a three year old. I’m looking forward to see how he will handle the stretch out to nine furlongs.

He’s the deserving favorite and I look for him to be competitive.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (6-1) is another young colt I wrote about in my 2015 Kentucky Derby Outlook and I’m looking forward to see if he can get into the Derby starting gate.

He comes into this race for trainer James Cassidy with a 3-0-0 record in four starts including wins in the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes and the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3). However, Ocho Ocho Ocho’s three-year-old debut last month in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) was a disaster and he finished off the board in eighth-place.

When I look at that race, it appears that Ocho Ocho Ocho, and jockey Mike Smith, were caught off guard from the get go. Right out of the gate they were cut off when Dortmund moved in toward the rail and then they were steadied by The Gomper going into the first turn. Also, Ocho Ocho Ocho came into that race off of a four-month layoff and that may have been a factor.

Whatever the reason for his lackluster performance in the San Felipe, Ocho Ocho Ocho has the breeding to be competitive, and, I’ll be watching to see if he lives up to that breeding.

Unrivaled (12-1) has one of the best pedigrees in this herd of horses and He comes into this race for owner Team Valor International with a 2-2-1 record in six starts. His last two races at Parx Racing were blowouts but the final times very slow and he’ll need to improve his game if he’s going to secure the win.

 Danzig Moon (8-1) also has good breeding and he comes into this race with a 1-1-0 record in four starts for trainer Mark Casse. In his last, Danzig Moon crawled home to fourth-place in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and he, too, will need to improve his game considerably.

Finally, honorable mention goes to a couple of horses I liked in their last race. Classy Class (6-1) finished third in the Gotham Stakes (G3) and Gorgeous Bird (8-1) finished fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), and, if they can improve off of that performance, they could, perhaps, be a factor in this race.

*****

The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) will receive 100 points, second-place finisher will receive 40 points, third-place finisher will get 20 points and fourth-place finisher will get 10 points.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. International Star, 171, Mike Maker, $940,979

2. Mubtaahij (IRE), 100, Mike de Kock, $1,400,000

3. Materiality, 100, Todd Pletcher, $632,028

4. Upstart, 76, Rick Violette Jr., $807,680

5. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

6. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

7. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

8. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

9. Itsaknockout, 60, Todd Pletcher, $288,560

10. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

11. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

12. War Story, 44, Tom Amoss, $195,000

13. Maftool, 40, Saeed bin Suroor, $$630,595

14. Ami’s Flatter, 40, Josie Carroll, $195,200

15. Stanford, 40, Todd Pletcher, $151,400

16. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

17. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

18. Keen Ice, 22, Dale Romans, $136,520

19. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

20. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

20. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

          * Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.

Louisiana Derby Racing Roundup

©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

This Saturday, we’ll log a lot of miles on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” which will take us to Florida, Louisiana and the nation of the United Arab Emirates where the winners of those three races will each receive 100 qualifying points and a guaranteed spot in Derby starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

At the Fair Grounds Race Course in Louisiana, International Star will go to the starting gate as the 3-1 morning line favorite in the 102^nd running of the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2). Post time is 6:24 p.m. ET.

International Star comes into this race for trainer Michael Maker with a 4-2-0 record in eight starts. He’s already faced several horses in this field and he’s a proven competitor at the Fair Grounds winning both the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Start Stakes (G2) earlier this season.

I look for International star to be competitive in this race and I’ll be watching closely to see how well he handles the stretch out to nine furlongs.

A mild long shot I like in this race is Keen Ice (5-1) who’s compiled a 1-0-2 in six starts for trainer Dale Romans. In this herd, Keen Ice has the best pedigree but he’s yet to live up to his full potential.

However, his third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (G2), last out, could be a signal that Keen Ice is getting good at the right time of year and he could be ready to make another big move forward.

For most of the stretch in the Risen Star, Keen Ice ran behind a wall of horses. But, when he found running room, he was able to get up for third, just 2¾-lengths behind the winner, International Star.

I look for Keen Ice to be competitive in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and, if jockey James Graham can ride him free and clear, perhaps he could pull off an upset at a nice price.

Stanford (5-1) is a new horse in this herd and he also has the breeding to be competitive. He comes into this race for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 2-0-0 record in four starts. However, in his last race he finished second to stablemate Materiality in the Islamorada Handicap but was disqualified and placed sixth.  

This race will be the second start for Stanford at nine furlongs and he has room to improve in his third start of the season as a three year old. A recent bullet work out could have him ready and I look for him to run a good race.

War Story (4-1) has never finished worse than second in four starts and he comes into this race for trainer Tom Amoss off of two back-to-back second place finishes to International Star in the Le Comte Stakes (G3) and Risen Star Stakes (G2).

War is always competitive and I look for him to run a good race. A recent bullet work could have him ready to run a career best race.

Mr. Z (4-1) is another new horse in this herd. He comes into this race with a 1-4-3 record in 10 starts for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and he picks up veteran jockey Kent Desormeaux who rode War Story in the Risen Star.

Mr. Z should be competitive, but I don’t look for him to win.

I could not find any specific mention of television coverage for the Louisiana Derby (G2) but it most likely it will be during the TVG broadcast of the Florida Derby from 6:30-7:30 p.m. ET. It also may be on the NBC Sports Network from 6-7 p.m. ET.

*****

This weekend with the running of the Florida Derby (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2) and UAE Derby (G2), the winner of these races will receive 100 points, second-place finishers will receive 40 points, third-place finishers will get 20 points and fourth-place finishers will get 10 points.

Calculator, ranked 5^th in the January 24 Kentucky Derby point standings, is sidelined with an injury for six months and he’s off the Derby trail. Leave the Light On, ranked 13^th, is also off the trail. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red had returned to training but was recently taken off of the Derby Trail due to a lingering issue with a foot abscess.

Here’s a look at the current top twenty Derby qualifiers

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. El Kabeir, 75, John Terranova II, $620,792

2. International Star, 71, Mike Maker, $490,979

3. Dortmund, 70, Bob Baffert, $630,000

4. Carpe Diem, 64, Todd Pletcher, $870,000

5. American Pharoah, 60, Bob Baffert, $810,000

6. Firing Line, 58, Simon Callaghan, $530,000

7. *Dubai Sky, 50, Bill Mott, $371,780

8. Itsaknockout, 50, Todd Pletcher, $240,500

9. Upstart, 36, Rick Violette Jr., $615,680

10. Conquest Typhoon, 26, Mark Casse, $430,827

11. War Story, 24, Tom Amoss, $120,000

12. Far Right, 22, Ron Moquett, $385,906

13. Madefromlucky, 20, Todd Pletcher, $150,000

14. Ami’s Flatter, 20, Josie Carroll, $99,200

15. Prospect Park, 20, Cliff Sise, Jr., $80,000

16. *Tiz Shea D, 20, Bill Mott, $80,000

17. Bold Conquest, 17, Steve Asmussen, $162,176

18. Mr. Z, 14, D. Wayne Lukas, $518,326

19. Frosted, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $176,200

20. Classy Class, 13, Kiaran McLaughlin, $85,000

          * Late nominations to the Kentucky Derby.